I've seen speculation that Sunak's recent insistance that planes will be taking off to Rwanda by 15th July means he'll wait until at least then to call the GE. I disagree. I'm still optimistic about the chances of a GE being called shortly after the LEs.
The results of the LEs are going to be horrifying for the Tories. Penny Dreadful and Kemi Badenough and Honest Bob Jenprick and Suella Depraverman and Granty Twelvenames are all weighing up a leadership challenge after this, to which Sunak will bravely respond by calling a GE immediately. That would be timed so that the election is in early summer. 4th July, most probably.
If the election is called this soon, he can still just go hell for leather on the "Vote Tory and planes will definitely definitely be going to Rwanda next week, I promise" line. It'll fail, but Dr Death cares not a fuck; he can piss clean off to Cali with Mrs Death and little junior Deaths and enjoy their billion quid in silicon valley. We won't see him again. If he threatens his MPs with an election purely in an effort to stop a leadership contest, tbh I still think at least Braverman would go ahead and challenge him. I've heard her recently on LBC; she actually sounded quite gleeful at the prospect of a heavy, heavy GE loss; she knows her seat is one of the safest, and she knows this would clear a path for her to grab the Tory leadership and mold what's left of the party to her tastes while they're in opposition.
There are too many landmines for the Tories further down the road. Foreign leaders are already starting to ignore Sunak as they know he's a dead man walking, and that'll get worse and worse as the year goes on. They won't want to be about for the Hallet report, either. And if the Rwanda planes inevitably don't take off on 15th July and they still haven't called an election, that'll fuck goodbye the very last shred of credibility he has with that awful, heartless contigent who wants to see the scheme happen. Calling the election so it happens just before all this would frankly be damage limitation.