It was a likely scenario though, and the scenario Trump liked, that he would be ahead on election day and the early vote would come in later the week, especially in Pennsylvania. That's why he telegraphed in advance, that the Dems would "steal the election" etc.... And yes, Biden still has better chance to win, for example, The New York Times gives him a 63% chance of winning in Georgia. Still, the state polls were off. Shy Trump voters it seems. And why, oh why, does it always have to be so chaotic? Will there be another "Brooks Brothers" riot, i.e. Republican party activists disrupting the state count? But this time in Pennsylvania....
And in addition, yes, Biden gained a lot over Hillary, for example in Minnesota and New Hampshire, also a couple of points in Ohio. You would think that it would translate to Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania at least somewhat. Trump won those states in 2016 by less than 1%. But no, it gets just as close as the last time.