RoverAndOut

Portugal's Euro 2016 record: Portugal 1-1 Iceland Portugal 0-0 Austria Portugal 3-3 Hungary Portugal 0-0 Croatia (1-0 AET after 117th minute goal) Portugal 0-0 Poland (AET, Portugal win 5-3 on penalties) Portugal could become the first side to win the Euros without ever winning a match in normal time. And lest we forget that barring 3 equalisers against Hungary they'd have been on the first plane home. Lucky winkers...

I could literally do that all day.

Thinking a Syriza style situation? The way Labour's carrying on it's not beyond the realms of possibility. The question is the terms of the bet. The most likely 'new' party would be a merger of the Lib Dems and Labour rebels, perhaps under a new name, but it's whether the bookie would accept the new name as a new party, rather than a continuation of the Lib Dems. Still, at 33/1 it's got to be worth a cheeky punt. Today has astonished me. I woke up to the news Gove was running and thought 'well that's a blow for Boris, what the hell's happened there?' and I nearly fell out of bed when I saw Boris wasn't running (yes, I had a lazy morning, sue me for it). I can't see Gove uniting the party, some of Boris' backers are foaming at the mouth at his treachery. It may come down to May v Leadsom (I can see Boris backing her eventually) and we'll see the lie of the land then. Hustings are Monday, first round of voting Tuesday, after which the results will be announced, the bottom name will drop out and any others who choose to remove themselves from consideration. Second ballot will be Thursday if necessary, and then the following Tuesday should a third round be needed, with a candidate dropping out each time until just two remain to be put to the wider membership.

Can't disagree with you at all, Iceland fully deserved the win. On the final point, at least we reach the tournaments to fail miserably. There are kids north of the border now reaching adulthood who weren't born the last time the Tartan Army reached a major tournament. I mean, at least you used to qualify, then go out in the group stage. Now you don't even do that. Quarter Finals start tonight, thought we might start having a few (ill advised) predictions: Poland-Portugal: Portugal to score a last minute/extra time winner, just as in the Last 16, 0-1. Wales-Belgium: Much as a I fear a Wales win, I'll say 1-2 Belgium. Germany-Italy: Toss-up. Could be a cracking match. Italy, because they've never lost to Germany in a major tournament. (True dat) France-Iceland: France finally find their form and Iceland's fairytale ends to a competent opposition, 2-0. Of course, I tipped a Croatia-Belgium semi-final, so if I were you I'd be looking at Poland, Wales, Germany and Iceland...

Possibly then again possibly not. The 'catastrophe' would also affect Europe, Spain on the brink, ditto Italy and billions of Euros worth of goods sitting in warehouses and ports on mainland Europe without UK buyers. As ive said before, the EU will be desperate to keep everything viable and a deeper recession would only serve to push the exit button for millions of people. We shall see. When all 27 leaders agree on something, I take it as a done deal, given how much they used to fight as a block of 28. True but if their exports suffer and it leads to cuts in hours, redundancies and the like the shit will hit the fan.You only have to see how the French Unions are with anti austerity/job security to see that, if the EU are seen as the creators of a serious economic downturn across Europe, it will make keeping everybody in very difficult. Are they prepared to risk the Euro Zone economy to make a point?? There are two contrasting arguments here that make it difficult to know what will happen. On the one hand, Merkel does not want to cut off British trade, she likes the relationship we have and as LFN mentioned earlier the head of their version of the CBI doesn't want it making harder to trade with Britain. On the other hand, there is a need for the EU to make it 'difficult' for us, to deter others from following suit. Furthermore, there is a genuine belief on the value of the 'free movement' principle, and Norway and Iceland do have to accept the free movement principles to be part of the EEA. There seems to be this belief that we're so rich and so important that we can pick and choose our deal and I don't think that's going to be the case. Also: what Carol said.

The reason for the general speculation about an early election is not that it's being conducted by people who have no knowledge of British Parliamentary history, it is an acknowledgement of the situation we find ourselves in. Britain is in the grips of an existential crisis. We have a Conservative party who - far from settling its internal divisions - is presently more divided than ever. We have a Parliamentary Labour Party with no leader and a Parliamentary Labour Party Leader with no followers. The third largest party are the Scottish Nationalists, whose leader is currently trying to do all she can to avoid the decision the British people made, and whose long-term aim is to take Scotland out of the Union. And we have 8 Lib Dem MPs. An In-Out referendum on Britain's membership to the European Union was included in the 2015 Conservative Party manifesto. What was not included was a clause that said 'And once we balls it up and you vote out, we're going to take sole responsibility to decide among our 150,000 members who will be the Prime Minister to decide our negotiating position on the biggest constitutional matter in living memory. It is not unreasonable to suggest that the people get a say in the Parliament that takes these monumental decisions. 17 million people did not vote for Boris Johnson last Thursday, they voted for Britain to leave the EU. If Theresa May, or even Steven Crabbe manages to become leader, they weren't even on the winning side of the referendum. When Wilson handed over the Callaghan, the direction of the Labour barely changed; when Thatcher left, her Chancellor took over; Blair and Brown were (albeit testy) partners in crime. Boris Johnson was in direct opposition to the man he's replacing. Is it as simple as he gets the support of half his parliamentary party, and 76000 Tories nationwide and he has carte blanche to decide that we don't want to be in the single market, that immigration will be cut, etc., etc.? There will be a huge amount of pressure nationally for the so-called 'Brexit government' to be approved by the nation, to set out their vision for the talks and the future - and soon, not in 2020 when everything's already decided and it's too late to change anything. There will also be pressures from within the Tory party unless something significant changes for Labour, as there's a chance to ensure a new mandate, a new 5-year Parliament and potentially to cripple Labour, possibly terminally. If Labour lost 20 MPs to UKIP (and it could be more) then that would provide further support for any changes pursued by the Brexit team (although it could work to their disadvantage if the new government tries to water down some of the Leave conditions and UKIP don't like it). I am personally coming to the conclusion that the Tories will try to avoid an early election at all costs, but it is not unreasonable to suggest there may be one. Meanwhile, Labour continue to tear themselves to pieces. It seems Angela Eagle will challenge Corbyn tomorrow. The Unions are backing him, but seemingly not unconditionally, which could be a deciding factor. He still has the support of many Constituency parties it seems, which could be curtains for some of the MPs concerned. The word 'deselection' is no longer seen as a threat but a certainty in some cases. If Corbyn wins, I can honestly say I have no idea what will happen. 172 MPs voted against him, 40 voted for him, and not all of those are in his corner. I'm not sure he can form a Shadow Cabinet post-leadership contest, unless he's prepared to appoint those who opposed him, and what happens if they refuse to serve? Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, has suggested that there needs to be a post-Brexit realignment of the progressive movement to avoid perpetual Tory rule. He has not ruled out a new party being formed with those Labour MPs who oppose Corbyn. In such an eventuality, there could potentially be a new party created with upwards of 100 MPs. If 115 Labour MPs could be convinced to leave (ordinarily a ludicrous suggestion, but if they believe their party has been hijacked by Corbyn and his supporters for the foreseeable future then not inconceivable), Labour would be left with less MPs than the 'rebel Labour' party, which could lead to a change in Opposition. I think Labour's grand hope is the opposite happens, the moderates in the party re-gain control (and can we just establish that Angela Eagle is hardly from the Blairite wing of the party, same can be said of many of the so-called 'plotters', while Andy Burnham, who may be considered a Blairite is one of the few prepared to stand with Corbyn) and, worse comes to the worst, Momentum's lot leave and form their own party. Right now, I'm not sure that this rift at the heart of the party can be healed without a schism. It is easy to paper over cracks when you're winning elections and staying in power, it becomes somewhat harder when you're not in power and both sides think it's the other's fault...

You're too kind. All I am is a political nerd with too much time on his hands. That said, I hope it all helps! This Tory leadership election is turning into a rogue's gallery. Liam Fox has declared his intention to stand, a man whose frontbench career I thought finished when he got done for his lobbyist friend, and had resorted to being an angry Eurosceptic backbencher. JEREMY HUNT IS CONSIDERING STANDING!!! Never did I think Boris might be the best option... Leadsom again said she's considering her position, and then there's May. Osborne's ruled himself out, which was the only logical step. He may be making overtures to Boris now (ever the career politician) which could be bad news for Theresa. Now Crabbe's stepping in, supposedly in a possible coalition with Sajid Javid as his Chancellor (God help us). Thankfully Priti Patel's name has yet to be uttered, but she's the sort of person who'll say nothing and submit her nomination at 11.59 tomorrow morning, with that smug look on her face. Dr. Sarah Woolaston (the MP who switched from Leave to Remain in the final week) says that it's clear Boris and May are the two most fancied candidates and that everyone else should stop looking to self-interest, it's in the country's interest for a quick election between two candidates and everyone can then move on. There are signs that May's stock is rising, as even some Brexiteers don't like Boris. That said, you then get people like Nicholas Soames, who gave Boris no end of abuse during the referendum, and accused Michael Gove of treason for leaking the Queen's supposed EU views, now announcing that Boris and Gove are a political dream team and everyone should let bygones be bygones and get on board. So who knows what's going to happen. Guess we'll know Thursday morning. On the Labour side, there are questions as to whether Corbyn gets onto the ballot without the support of MPs (unsurprisingly those opposed say their legal advice says he's need nominating, his aides say their legal advice says he's automatically on if he wants to be). You need 50 MPs to be nominated, and while the plan appears to be for a single unity opposing candidate, it is not quite so clear if everyone can agree on who that should be. Eagle is still tipped, but apparently there is support coalescing around Tom Watson, Corbyn's deputy, who frankly might be good at greasing the party machine for smooth running but inspires little more confidence as a future PM than Corbyn does. Eagle at least seems an honest broker and someone the party and the country could possibly see as a counterweight to the Tories. Meanwhile, Pat Glass, the newly-installed Shadow Education Secretary, has written to her local constituency Labour party to announce she will be standing down from Parliament at the next General Election, whenever that may be. Which inspires great confidence in Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition... EDIT: Motion of No Confidence in Jeremy Corbyn passes. Of those who voted, there were 4 abstentions, 40 against the motion and just the 172 in favour. Watson and Eagle in the frame to challenge, but not clear which at this time. Still unclear whether Corbyn gets on the ballot automatically, but on those numbers he's still 10 short if every person who voted against the motion of no confidence backs his nomination. I think you're slightly confused. A candidate needs 50 MPs to trigger a leadership contest. Other candidates in that contest need 35 MPs only. Whether Corbyn could must 35 MPs (I'd assume the 40 who voted against the motion of no confidence in him suggests he could) is another question. There is a very real probability, although slightly diminished, that the leadership election could be triggered and Corbyn could win it. I tell you what would be funny... If the Lib Dem rules demanded 50 MPs had to support each leadership candidate. At this rate the fact Labour's do is going to be equally hysterical after the next election. Ignore my last post - apparently it's 50 if there is a leader. If he resigned he could get on the ballot with the 40 who voted for him in the vote of confidence. A few points on the Labour motion. First, Labour has 229 MPs and only 216 registered a vote on the motion, so 13 didn't state a vote for any of the three options. That said, among those 40 who backed him was Liz McInnes, who had this to say afterwards: So he hasn't even got the support of the 40 who voted down the motion. Three days before the nominations closed last year for the leadership contest, Corbyn had 17 nominees out of 35 needed, so if we say that's his core support, he's going to struggle to get on the ballot if he needs to. It appears the party is coalescing around Angela Eagle as the anti-Corbyn challenger, but they are still hopeful that the meetings with trades union leaders tomorrow will put the final nail in Corbyn's coffin and he will resign, allowing a proper leadership battle. Otherwise, Eagle will declare her challenge, the party will rally around her, and off we go with the leadership contest. To throw further confusion into the mix, the general Tory feeling appears to be against an autumn General Election, suggesting that MPs are terrified of the prospect, with both Tory and Labour parties in disarray there is the prospect of UKIP gains in the north, Lib Dem gains in the south and a hung parliament to add further chaos to the situation. Boris has supposedly privately stated he has no intention of holding an election if elected, as he believes the mandate came from the Brexit vote. Personally I think he's talking bollocks.

What can I say? You had a very good line-up! Think I stole 4 in the end, but it could have been more. I did try and steer clear of a few of yours, knowing I'd already taken some, but then, of course, there were others. Anyway, apologies, but I doubt any of them will end up dying next anyway!

You're too kind. All I am is a political nerd with too much time on his hands. That said, I hope it all helps! This Tory leadership election is turning into a rogue's gallery. Liam Fox has declared his intention to stand, a man whose frontbench career I thought finished when he got done for his lobbyist friend, and had resorted to being an angry Eurosceptic backbencher. JEREMY HUNT IS CONSIDERING STANDING!!! Never did I think Boris might be the best option... Leadsom again said she's considering her position, and then there's May. Osborne's ruled himself out, which was the only logical step. He may be making overtures to Boris now (ever the career politician) which could be bad news for Theresa. Now Crabbe's stepping in, supposedly in a possible coalition with Sajid Javid as his Chancellor (God help us). Thankfully Priti Patel's name has yet to be uttered, but she's the sort of person who'll say nothing and submit her nomination at 11.59 tomorrow morning, with that smug look on her face. Dr. Sarah Woolaston (the MP who switched from Leave to Remain in the final week) says that it's clear Boris and May are the two most fancied candidates and that everyone else should stop looking to self-interest, it's in the country's interest for a quick election between two candidates and everyone can then move on. There are signs that May's stock is rising, as even some Brexiteers don't like Boris. That said, you then get people like Nicholas Soames, who gave Boris no end of abuse during the referendum, and accused Michael Gove of treason for leaking the Queen's supposed EU views, now announcing that Boris and Gove are a political dream team and everyone should let bygones be bygones and get on board. So who knows what's going to happen. Guess we'll know Thursday morning. On the Labour side, there are questions as to whether Corbyn gets onto the ballot without the support of MPs (unsurprisingly those opposed say their legal advice says he's need nominating, his aides say their legal advice says he's automatically on if he wants to be). You need 50 MPs to be nominated, and while the plan appears to be for a single unity opposing candidate, it is not quite so clear if everyone can agree on who that should be. Eagle is still tipped, but apparently there is support coalescing around Tom Watson, Corbyn's deputy, who frankly might be good at greasing the party machine for smooth running but inspires little more confidence as a future PM than Corbyn does. Eagle at least seems an honest broker and someone the party and the country could possibly see as a counterweight to the Tories. Meanwhile, Pat Glass, the newly-installed Shadow Education Secretary, has written to her local constituency Labour party to announce she will be standing down from Parliament at the next General Election, whenever that may be. Which inspires great confidence in Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition... EDIT: Motion of No Confidence in Jeremy Corbyn passes. Of those who voted, there were 4 abstentions, 40 against the motion and just the 172 in favour. Watson and Eagle in the frame to challenge, but not clear which at this time. Still unclear whether Corbyn gets on the ballot automatically, but on those numbers he's still 10 short if every person who voted against the motion of no confidence backs his nomination.

Making the most of being up at stupid o'clock, here's my carefully-crafted picks, who are all certain to live long enough for me not to win this time around: 1920 - John Paul Stevens, Lassie Lou Ahern 1921 - King Michael of Romania, Liz Smith 1922 - Milos Jakes, Lillianne Bettencourt 1923 - Chuck Yeager, Pearl Carr 1924 - George HW Bush, Lys Assia 1925 - Hal Holbrook, Angela Lansbury 1926 - Jerry Lewis, Jean Alexander 1927 - Bhumibol Adulyadej, Gina Lollobrigida 1928 - Bruce Forsyth, Jean Kennedy Smith 1929 - Roger Bannister, Thelma Barlow

While I wasn't aware of Kettering's persuasion (though I could have guessed) I guess my general point was that on a turnout of 76%, Kettering voted 60+% for Brexit. The feeling was that higher turnout would help remain, and yet 76% still produced a clear Leave victory, and Newcastle - thought to be pro-Remain - ended deadlocked. From then on, I had my fears that this was only going one way. While I'm here (and since I don't want to post 3 times in a row) I may as well reflect a little on Labour's past 48 hours. I think two things are becoming fairly clear now: 1. That there will almost certainly be a Labour leadership contest started tomorrow after Labour MPs vote on the Motion of No Confidence in Jeremy Corbyn. 2. That Jeremy Corbyn will be a candidate in that leadership contest. The Labour party is clearly split here, some would say between the Parliamentary Labour Party and the grassroots, some would say between some of the PLP and some of the grassroots and others in the PLP and the grassroots. In the event that the Motion passes, it is not a formal part of any Labour Party mechanisms, i.e. it would simply suggest that there should be a leadership contest, but the only way for there to be one is to present an alternative candidate, secure the required number of sponsors (a formality in this eventuality) and off we go. I would imagine there will be conversations taking place among the so-called 'plotters' - basically the old Shadow Cabinet - about presenting a single candidate for maximum effectiveness. Who this candidate may be is unclear. Angela Eagle is seen as capable, and is from the left of the party so might be appeasing to the Corbynistas. She quit today, but was clearly highly distressed about the decision, and notably refused to rule out a leadership bid. Dan Jarvis seems to be everyone's ideal candidate, but he ruled out running last year due to his young children, and while he has a compelling narrative, it is not a narrative known to the wider electorate and would there be enough time for him to connect before a General Election. The third candidate I wouldn't rule out is Jess Phillips, who gave the most honest and plain spoken resignation letter today, where she acknowledged that she 'felt silly' writing a resignation letter as 'most people don't pay the position I had any mind at all', going on to establish that 'Saying stuff won't cut it' and apologising that 'Nobody deserves some of the crap you've had to put up with' (her words). The worry is, even in a situation where the 'others' unite behind a candidate, there is every indication that Corbyn would still win among the members. And what happens then? Corbyn is returned with a fresh mandate, the argument that the PLP put forward that he was unfit has been rejected by the people they represent, so where do they go from there? Those who resigned would be finished so long as Corbyn was leader, and we end up with a shadow cabinet full of lightweights, to put it plainly. Their only alternative would be to do a 'Gang of Four' and form a new party or defect to another party - the Lib Dems are the only option there. The difference here is, I could see upwards of 100 MPs emboldened by their unity and disillusioned with Corbyn being prepared for such a drastic action, but such a move would immediately hand power to Boris in any General Election. So here we are. The resignees fully expected, I assume, that their actions would force Corbyn to resign, thus solving the issue of his place on the ballot, and making it a straight fight between 2 or 3 of the people we've previously mentioned. Alternatively, there may have been an attempt to parachute someone like Alan Johnson in for the short term and look to replace him sometime during the next Parliament after a rigorous internal election. But with Jezza refusing to budge, his candidacy is virtually guaranteed in a new leadership contest, which he will therefore likely win. 2 polls in the last week have put Labour level, or ahead of the Tories, which Momentum are suggesting is signs that Corbyn is connecting, at a time when the Tories are fighting over Europe. The problems with this are that 1. The polls said quite clearly that Ed Miliband should presently be our Prime Minister and 2. By the time of a General Election, the Tories will be united, they will have a new leader, have agreed upon a platform for the Brexit negotiations to put to the British people, and people will be presented with a choice between Boris and Jeremy. At that point I only see one winner, and what then? We have a third Labour leadership contest in a little over 12 months? What a sorry mess...

And also a reason why you should be. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD WHY DIDN'T THEY GIVE US SOME ACTUAL FACTS???!!!

Steady on, it's been a rough week I grant you, but...steady on...

The seat is called Gedling, it's normally semi safe Labour, with the Tory party in an easy second place. It's north east of the Nottingham inner 3 city seats, before it gets rural. It used to be a mining area but now that's becoming a country park. Really being said that its the labour vote that's come down so very hard time for out. In essence this area of the country gets well below its ration of spending by government and euro projects. 2nd rate under used public transport links, and many attempts to remove the oap's bus passes. Still we get free 2 hour parking near our high street shopping. But when the sink estates are suffering twice the national average of unemployment and many others under employed there is no dought that people wish to object to euro money being wasted left right and centre. And latest figures ignoring the 6% undecided are standing at 72.5% Vote Leave, 27.5% RemaIN. All that makes sense, but I'm afraid if they think that leaving the EU will lead to that money coming their way they're sorely mistaken. The cause of their problems is government policy not EU policy. We're the 5th largest economy in the world (as the Leavers keep saying) so there's plenty of wealth in the country, the fact it's all concentrated in the south-east pisses us all off. Still, at least we'll all be satisfied when we can royally castigate Prime Minister Johnson and Chancellor Gove instead of those faceless bureaucrats in Brussels. It's going to be a tense night tomorrow... Are you counting Ali? Was at the count. Watching over the 80 or so local government officials who conducted it. Got there at about 10:20pm along with the arrival of some of the 57 ballot boxes. As they sorted the papers into piles to count the total number of votes you could start to understand the weight of each side's likely vote. The first three ballot box tip outs were quite close and not very promising. Then the forth and fifth were like striking gold. As these votes were first counted into tens we could start to see local pockets averaging 3/7 2/8 and 1/9 ratios in favour of out. By 1am they had the sum total number of votes cast and a turnout figure. And at this point I remember thinking that the 74% figure was a bit on the small side and could only help our cause. Still it looked too close to call nationally. Definatly a local win but more likely a nation loss to RemaIN.I had predictions from conducting my own exit poll study during the day that it would be a local win for leave in the region of 61%. But as the count continued, into a second phase after 1:30am, this time by sepperating each of the 67 bundles of one thousand votes into two piles it looked closer. As each pair of stacks rose it was just becoming obvious that they had an advantage to Leave. Then when sorted, the piles were counted down into tens then grouped into hundreds. Each table of counters was getting wins for Leave and news began filtering in from other counts to increase the Leave lead bit by bit. By 4:30 the count concluded for us. About six hours of considerable manual effort to get to a position of knowing exactly how many would count for each side and to have assessed each vote visually to assess if it was valid and correctly cast. In the end only 58 rejected votes were noted. The saddest being that signed by an old lady of 97. By writing her name and date of birth in the lower left hand corner she invalidated her own vote to Leave the EU. The drive home was punctuated by the news on radio that Wales had voted to Leave and only then it was dawning in more ways than one that the country had the courage to stand on it's own two feet again. Watched some TV coverage but fell asleep on the sofa about 5:30am. Woke from my slumber at about 7:30am to Mrs H getting up and muddled through the day, attending the school sports day for my lad in the afternoon blazing sun, with only a late siesta afterwards. Partied Friday night with the winning team (mainly UKIPers, a number of ex conservatives, a LibDem for out, some new blood and a few of exLabour types, me included) at a local pub from 8pm till midnight. Shot through with all the effort and now recovering after yet another alcohol charged event last night of a secondary school reunion for us group of 50 years olds. Mad... Question is do I join this post BREXIT UKIP party? They are a more normal bunch of people than any political crowd I've ever come across! Exuberant and realistic but I could not be classed as close to rampant extremist or anything racist. Thanks for the thorough insight into referendum night. Watching the BBC's coverage, I think I was pretty sure once Newcastle came in, and virtually certain once places like Sunderland and Kettering came in, that we'd end up Leaving. As for you UKIP ponderance, all I would say is, however 'normal' a bunch they may seem at a local level, they are still led by a demagogue with more extreme views than some in his party. If the party had someone like Suzanne Evans in charge, they would be a lot more palatable. I don't agree with her on much, same with Carswell, but at least they seem to stand for more than jingoism and stereotypes. Further to the earlier discussions had here about the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, Cameron just said in Parliament that it would be up to the next Prime Minister to decide if there should be a new election and whether it could happen. I'm wondering if, following this, an amendment may be made to the Act to allow for a vote on a new election in the event of a change of Prime Minister mid-term, particularly if in this instance it proves difficult to achieve. I was wondering whether to discuss Labour's travails here (as has been done previously) or in the EU forum. I'm happy to do either so I'll await advice, and also for a little more of a clear outcome to the current turmoil. Simply to say though that never in my life or in my learning of history have I seen, or heard of, 2/3rds of a cabinet, or shadow cabinet, resign and the leader still pledge to stay on. It's a crazy time.

My very outside bet is on David Davis. Almost made PM ahead of Cameron, well respected, articulate and a Brexiter, something May wasn't and isn't. Isn't he seen as a bit of a grand standing maverick after his principled resignation to fight a by-election on his own? Some people are talking about Dominic Rahb That he may be, not a terrible thing in the light of the wishy washy shit Politicians we have out there at the moment. He might struggle to get through the knockout rounds which are voted for by MPs. Might have missed his chance. Leadsom's admitted she's considering a bid. Stock has risen in the referendum campaign and will almost certainly have a big part to play in the new government. Boris is standing, Gove isn't, May's exploring her options. George hasn't ruled himself out either, bless him, but he hasn't got a cat in hell's chance. The short campaign is good for Boris, as it's harder for those seeking to unite support to beat him to mobilise effectively in time. Nominations open Wednesday evening and close Thursday noon, so those considering their runs have got to get their shit together in short order.

It won't be 2016. No way she can get it done this year. There's possibly another General Election to come, plus the early stages of Brexit. I'm not sure she can push for the referendum until the terms of the Brexit are a little clearer. If we're part of the EEA, still have free movement of people and access to the common market, I think support in Scotland for independence may return to closer to the 45-55 of the last referendum. If, on the other hand, it looks like we'll not have free movement of people, or access to the common market is limited then I think support may intensify for a second referendum. While Westminster claim the terms of the last referendum haven't changed that much, as a 'No' supporter (in England) in 2014, I remember how big a case was made of Scotland's continued access to the EU, and the dangers that was put in if Scotland left. Within 2 years of that vote, we're out of the EU anyway, so it's a moot point. Personally, I think Nicola's angling for somehow continuing the UK's membership status in an independent Scotland (i.e. no need to enter the Euro, etc.). I'm not sure on the legality of that, and I think in the end they'd have to re-admit as a new member state - not least because I can see the UK causing an unholy row if the EU looked like accepting Scotland under those terms. That said, the UK is out of the EU, so wouldn't have the power to veto Scotland's entry, so if the EU were happy with that (partly no doubt to stick two fingers up at Westminster) then it could happen. I don't think it's quite certain yet that Scotland will vote to leave, though it is likely. Nicola only gets one shot at this, she has to make it count.

Sorry. They're a plucky bunch, and should've scored one, maybe two, but they really couldn't defend, especially once they pushed up for the equaliser. Makes me feel better that when England inevitably lose to France there's a far better chance now that Wales won't make the semis either...

Well that's ballsed things up rather.

Hands up who saw that start coming? England-Ireland QF? Probably not, but at least there's something to defend now...

Wonder if he voted the same way both times...

Yeah I wasn't spouting conspiracy theories on Corbyn backers, just making a note about Sadiq. If Corbyn needs nominating to get on the ballot (which nobody quite knows, as it's not usually an issue for a party leader in a leadership contest - my feeling is he probably does) then I can't see how he gets on the ballot. What happens with Labour members in that eventuality I don't know. Not to mention, even as a Labour supporter and someone who follows politics pretty closely, I can't think of anybody who 'stands out' as a replacement. The New Labour lot were buried in the last leadership contest - I can't see it being Cooper and Burnham fancies being Greater Manchester's new metro mayor. Alan Johnson would reject it for about the sixth time. Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna are both ostensibly Blairites, so same New Labour problem. Dan Jarvis is heavily tipped but virtually invisible. That might help Labour, a fresh face, but with the prospect of an Autumn election, is it enough time for him to establish himself as a creditable alternative to Boris in the voters' eyes? I know Jess Phillips has a lot of supporters, and might be a good fit. Also think it's time Labour provided a female alternative, especially to Boris, though this changes of course if it's Teresa. I always liked Stella Creasey, wanted her to get the Deputy Leadership but she's clearly not popular enough. Keir Starmer's another tipped for greatness, but, again, suffers from the invisibility factor, and while he may be very able I can't see him as the charismatic alternative to Boris that Labour needs. I like the Tory lightning strike option, like you said it worked before (what a crazy day that was, although, of course, since Thursday, the definition of 'crazy day' has changed significantly) but I'm not sure that there's that kind of unity this time around. Back then, there were only a couple of years before a General Election, they wanted a safe hand on the tiller and apparently everyone agreed on Howard (well, everyone but IDS I'm guessing). This time, the Tory Party is split down the middle, and I can't see the pro-Europeans not putting a candidate forward, even if it's just as a protest. Equally though, I don't see it being a multi-candidate field, I'd expect no more than 3. Boris, probably Teresa, and somebody more pro-European - maybe Ken fancies a last hurrah, especially since it won't cost him anything as he knows he won't win. As for the Article 50 declaration, the Brexiteers seem fairly certain that 1. It doesn't need to be invoked any time soon and 2. It probably doesn't need to be invoked at all. So, as I'm sure Chancellor-to-be Gove would say, Europe can demand all it wants, but Britain doesn't march to Europe's beat any longer. They'll just have to wait until we're good and ready. One final thought: if Labour get rid of Corbyn, I can't see how we can legitimately continue without a new General Election. Neither major party has the leader who was in office after the last General Election, we're about to enter our most important negotiations since the Second World War and we need a government with the people's support.

Shows what I know.

One slight flaw with that. In the first round, Corbyn won 49.6% of the party members votes. That is full members, not affiliates or £3ers. He'd have certainly won the leadership without a single £3 spent. The easiest way is to get him to resign, or failing that, just not re-nominating him. Two of his nominees are dead now after all. And another's the Mayor of London.

Lord Ashcroft has released a load of post-Brexit polling and has come up with a lot of interesting - if largely predictable - findings. Among them, these concerning the Tory Leadership... People who voted Conservative at the last General Election came down 58-42 in favour of Leave. Among Conservative voters, their preferred next leaders were as follows: LEAVE Boris 43% Gove 19% May 15% IDS 8% (No, really...) REMAIN May 28% Osborne 22% Boris 12% Davidson 10% Overall, apparently, this converts to Boris 28%, May 18%, Davidson 10%, Gove 9%, Osborne 8%. Now that's Tory voters, not members, but if we say the 9% of Gove's (plus whatever support IDS gets) goes to Boris, that puts him around 40%. May gets Davidson and Osborne's support, so that's around 35%. Then there's another quarter of the vote up for grabs. I personally can't see past Boris, he's popular nationally and riding the crest of a wave. Plus, the next leader almost certainly has to be a Brexiteer. I think May's the only Remainer they'd accept, given she SO lukewarm, although I read a piece in one of the papers saying Eurosceptics feel she didn't have the courage of her convictions where Boris did and will punish her for that. I can't see it being an outsider, it will be someone big, and I think the Tory Brexiteers will unite around Boris, like the party did around Michael Howard when they knifed IDS. The Remainers won't stay silent and will put up somebody under their banner, but only when the vote happens will we see how divided the party actually is.

It is win-win for them.If they keep Corbyn the centre left Voters will go to them but if they ditch Corbyn those activists who rejoined the Labour party to elect Corbyn will need some where else to go. It could be the Greens but Tim Farron is not tainted by coalition so he could pick some up. The other problem is for Labour how do they get rid of Corbyn. Labour MPs could keep his name off the ballot paper but Labour Members would not forgive this. If his name is on the ballot paper he wins and turns the tables on the plotters. That's what I've been thinking about. Hardly anyone has mentioned those pro-Europe Tories yet they are the ones who'll be grieving the most from this vote. Their European dream, which was signed up by Ted Heath in 1973, is dead. They have been marginalised within their own party but a large minority of the Rank and File are still in the party, for the moment. That's a sizeable number of disaffected voters to tap into. The Liberals slate has been wiped cleaned by the electorate in 2015 so it may still be too early but they can build up again. Farron seems a nice chap but they desperately need someone of the charisma of the rootin', tootin' dog shootin' Jeremy Thorpe to lasso those wet Tories in. As for Labour, well they're in a bit of a pickle. A Blairite coup would be suicide as there's still a lot in the party tainted by New Labour association. Maybe they need someone new and not tainted such as Dan Jarvis or Keir Starmer who could steer a path between NL, the Hampstead liberals, Islington latte left and the right-wing WC likes of Hoey and Field as well as appeal to Kennedy Lib Dems and the Euro Tories so as to reconstitute a sort of Centrist alternative. But it wont be easy and it'll take time as the centre-ground, so beloved of Blair/Cameron has effectively been destroyed... I feel there's a very noisy, purple-and-yellow-clad brigade of Union Jack-waving Cheshire Cats nobody's mentioning. UKIP's purpose has ended. Now they have a new purpose. Their purpose is to do to Labour in England what the SNP did to Labour in Scotland. And the worrying thing is I think they stand a chance. I'd like to say 4 million is their ceiling but unless something changes I'm not sure I see a way back for Labour. Yes, I know, they have 229 MPs, but you'd be surprised how quickly that can be whittled down (see, again, Scotland). I've voted Labour all my life (admittedly this consists of only 10 years-worth of votes) and right now I've no idea where my next votes going. I want a pragmatic, progressive party that can deliver me the country I want to see. That country took a hit on Thursday and I'm not sure how the new landscape will look. Lib Dems aren't going to recover any time soon, I agree with msc that the Greens are about where they're going to get now, SNP will continue to dominate Scotland, for as long as Scotland remains. The political present is a fight between a warring Tory party, a scrambling Labour party and a rampant UKIP.