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paddyfool

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Everything posted by paddyfool

  1. On the subject of death and dying, and how early or late it comes... Life expectancy at birth, i.e. the age at which you'd expect 50% of the population to still be alive based on average mortality in each age bracket, has been tracking upwards worldwide by a year or two in every 5 years since 1950. Currently it's sitting at 73.2 worldwide. https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/ It's a useful metric; it often correlates well with a lot of other measures of wellbeing. I tend to view different countries as sitting in the following tiers based on life expectancy: Tier 1: Countries with a life expectancy of 80 or above (39 countries in total [depending a little on the definition of country]; covering most of Western Europe, with very strong East Asian representation and other scattered countries from N and S America, Australasia, elsewhere in Europe and the Middle East; Hong Kong, Japan, Macao, Switzerland and Singapore making up the top 5). EDIT: Our many forumites from the UK might be interested if not surprised to know that we are in this tier, sitting at 29th in the world on 81.8, similar to Slovenia and Denmark. Tier 2: Countries with a life expectancy of 75 to 79.9 (56 countries, with representation from every continent but Antarctica; with the larger countries in this tier including the USA and China) Tier 3: Countries with a life expectancy of 70 to 74.9 (43 countries, also with representation from every continent but Antarctica; the larger countries in this tier including India, Indonesia and Russia) Tier 4: Countries with a life expectancy of 65 to 69.9 (24 countries, mainly in Africa and Asia; Pakistan the largest country by population in this tier) Tier 5: Countries with a life expectancy of 60 to 64.9 (19 countries; 18 of them in Africa plus Haiti; not sure which is the largest by population in this tier - maybe South Africa) Tier 6: Countries with a life expectancy below 60 (10 countries; all of them in Africa; Nigeria the largest by population in this tier, and the Central African Republic sits at the very bottom of the list, at 54.6 years). Notably, of course, the global average in 1950 was significantly lower again than the worst-off country today; at 47.0 years, you'd need a few further tiers to cover all of the world at that time; and the highest ranked country in 1950-1955, Norway, had a slightly lower life expectancy (72.8) than the global average today. We've come a long way in the last three score years and ten. It's also worth noting that there can be considerable spread within the larger countries. Different states of the USA in 2018 ranged from Tier 1 (10 states, with Hawaii at the top on 82.3) to Tier 3 (2 states - Mississippi and West Virginia). Hawaii would sit between the 24th and 25th highest ranked countries in the world (Belgium and Portugal); West Virginia between the 95th and 96th (Jordan and Jamaica). Similarly, different states of India in 2010-14 ranged from the border of Tier 2 and 3 (Kerala, on 74.9, similar to, say, Jordan, Jamaica or Mississippi today) to Tier 5 (4 states, with Assam at the bottom on 63.9, similar to Uganda, Niger or the Gambia). This year, of course, we may well see a dip in life expectancy in much of the world, after seeing it flatten out and stop rising in a few rich countries in recent years (particularly the UK and the USA). Over the next decade, however, I'd expect we continue to see most countries climb slowly up to where Tier 1 and 2 sit today; and Tier 1 may need to be split later if more countries join Japan and Hong Kong in having a life expectancy of 85 or over. (Perhaps we should call these two countries Tier 0...) As long as there are no truly catastrophic global events coming our way, of course.
  2. paddyfool

    Deathlist Correctlist 2021

    Running this again, for better or worse. Please submit a list of names from this year's deathlist to predict who on the list is actually going to die this year. Points will be allocated as follows: +1 per death correctly predicted -1 per death incorrectly predicted +4 if the number of deaths you predict matches the actual number of deaths, i.e. the number of names in your list matches the actual number of deaths +2 if you only miss the correct total number of deaths by 1 -2 if you miss the total number of deaths by more than 5 +1 bonus for a "unique" correct prediction (predicted by no other punter here) +1 bonus if you pick the bookie's favourite (single most popular guess in this contest) and they are a hit. -1 penalty if you pick the bookie's favourite and they are a miss. A further +1 bonus for every 3rd correctly predicted death (+1 on 3rd, 6th, 9th etc) You may if you wish select one entry as a joker. We are changing the rules for the Joker this year: you get an additional +2 if correct, and an additional -2 if incorrect; no more multiplication. In the event of a tie on points, the dead-lock (see what I did there) will be broken by the following: 1) Whichever team had the most hits 2) If unbroken by 1, whichever team was closest in their guess of predicted deaths for the year 3) If unbroken by 1 and 2, whichever team was submitted first. Entries in by Jan 10th, please, either by pm or by posting here. Any deaths before then will still score for any lists entered at least 24 hours before the death and will still count towards the total deaths for the year. Good luck.
  3. Quick and dirty poll, closing at the end of the month: how lethal do you think the coronavirus outbreak is likely to be? Answers on a click, discuss below.
  4. paddyfool

    Sickest game in the world (parts 1&2)

    Tuesday 1300
  5. paddyfool

    Deathlist Correctlist 2021

    And now we're closed to new entries. I've got a busy week of work ahead, but I'll try and draw up a spreadsheet of entries soon with these and the entries PM'd.
  6. paddyfool

    Sickest game in the world (parts 1&2)

    Sunday 500
  7. paddyfool

    Sickest game in the world (parts 1&2)

    Saturday 1200
  8. paddyfool

    Deaths of The Silver Screen Deadpool II

    I go looking for vaguely thematic movies with sufficiently famous cast to be certain to obit, with the probability of dying being more or less a tertiary consideration. Which definitely shouldn't be a winning strategy, nor have done as well as it did in the first round.
  9. paddyfool

    Sickest game in the world (parts 1&2)

    Thursday 850
  10. paddyfool

    Sickest game in the world (parts 1&2)

    Wednesday 1000
  11. paddyfool

    Sickest game in the world (parts 1&2)

    Tuesday 1200
  12. paddyfool

    Sickest game in the world (parts 1&2)

    Monday 350
  13. paddyfool

    Deathlist Correctlist 2021

    Fairly surprised by how many people aren't going for a Joker
  14. paddyfool

    The 1st Death of 2021?

    Joining the Rush bandwagon
  15. paddyfool

    Deathlist Correctlist 2020

    No worries. Belated congrats to Etushispushingupdaisies btw!
  16. paddyfool

    Deathlist Correctlist 2020

    New thread is up here: Thank you again for running this over the last year YoungWillz, and good luck with retrieving your title this year!
  17. paddyfool

    Sickest game in the world (parts 1&2)

    Sunday 300
  18. paddyfool

    Deathlist Correctlist 2020

    Thank you for running this this year! If anyone else wants to take the running of this forward, please feel free; otherwise I'll set up a thread in a bit.
  19. paddyfool

    How Many Hits This Year? 2021

    Thank you for setting this up QR! Long live King Genfærd, first ruler of 2021!
  20. paddyfool

    How many hits this year (Pauls version)

    19. Very old and frail list this year, and excess Covid mortality will still be a thing for much of this year.
  21. paddyfool

    Sickest game in the world (parts 1&2)

    Saturday 300
  22. paddyfool

    How Many Hits This Year? 2021

    39 steps to Armageddon
  23. paddyfool

    Sickest game in the world (parts 1&2)

    Friday 925
  24. paddyfool

    How many hits this year?

    Yet another silly forum game: How many hits will the list generate this year? Forumites may guess a number between 0 and 50, but nobody can pick a number someone else has already guessed. Entries open until all the numbers have gone. And as the fool starting this game, I'm going to start the bidding high with 15...
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