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paddyfool

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Everything posted by paddyfool

  1. Quick and dirty poll, closing at the end of the month: how lethal do you think the coronavirus outbreak is likely to be? Answers on a click, discuss below.
  2. paddyfool

    Sickest game in the world

    England: 550 Scotland: 20 Wales: 30 NI: 5
  3. paddyfool

    Sickest game in the world

    According to the metro, these are the findings: England - 516 Wales - 29 NI - 2 https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/01/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-rockets-563-patients-die-12492374/ I don't think anyone guessed any of them right.
  4. paddyfool

    Sickest game in the world

    England - 403 Scotland - 14 Wales - 8 NI - 6
  5. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    I reckon it will be either that band or the 1 million to 9.99 million band. With the caveat that the confirmed deaths will only be a fraction of the overall attributable deaths, and it's not certain to what extent clinically identified cases will form part of the total. (For instance, in the UK we aren't testing care home residents who are being managed palliatively)
  6. paddyfool

    Oldest Living State Leaders DP

    Mustafa ben Halim please
  7. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    So: March 19th: Daily confirmed Covid19 deaths worldwide pass 1000 per day March 24th: More than 2000 per day March 27th: More than 3000 per day Probably we'll be seeing over 4000 per day before we get into April. And it'll be some time after that before things peak and start to go back the other way. Just have to wait and see how bad it gets. Oh, and get fit in case we catch it, if we want to survive: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52076856
  8. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    It's not specific to portugal, but maybe send her a link to that Oxford study that was posted earlier which reckoned the death rate was low, and/or some of the more upbeat news articles on drug candidates? Also point out the following perks of the situation: - Less air pollution right now - Fewer greenhouse gas emissions - Less transmission of every pathogen with person to person spread - Fewer road collision deaths - After this crisis, the world should have significantly enhanced its ITU capacity, and may have enhanced its capacity to treat viral infections generally. Plus more people may actually wash their hands after this. - A chance to practice and get really good at indoor activity X, maybe flagging up calming options like mindfulness, meditation, yoga, artwork or whatever you think might appeal to her - A chance to do some DIY / gardening
  9. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    And that's before you consider a possible spike in births 9 months post lockdown
  10. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    A suspected Covid-19 male patient is lying in bed in the hospital, wearing an oxygen mask over his mouth and nose. A young student female nurse appears and gives him a partial sponge bath. "Nurse,"' he mumbles from behind the mask, "are my testicles black?" Embarrassed, the young nurse replies, "I don't know, Sir. I'm only here to wash your upper body and feet." He struggles to ask again, "Nurse, please check for me. Are my testicles black?" Concerned that he might elevate his blood pressure and heart rate from worrying about his testicles, she overcomes her embarrassment and pulls back the covers. She raises his gown, holds his manhood in one hand and his testicles gently in the other. She looks very closely and says, "There's nothing wrong with them, Sir. They look fine." The man slowly pulls off his oxygen mask, smiles at her, and says very slowly, "Thank you very much. That was wonderful. Now listen very, very, closely: "Are - my - test - results - back?"
  11. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    If true, we will see a lot of egg on a lot of faces (mine included). And if less than 50% of the world's population catch it this year, and if only 50% or so of Covid19 deaths are confirmed as Covid19 deaths, that would likely keep the confirmed death toll from this under half a million.
  12. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    Here's one of the places the existing supply chain has been ignored: https://thenantwichnews.co.uk/2020/03/24/nantwich-firm-blasts-government-over-delay-after-offering-5000-ventilators Here's another: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/no-10-boris-johnson-accused-of-putting-brexit-over-breathing-in-covid-19-ventilator-row However, I would tend to put these failures down to incompetence rather than corruption.
  13. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    Does anyone find a delicious irony to China closing its borders to foreign nationals... after the Chinese Gvt earlier protested when some other countries closed their borders to flights from China? (Not that it made that much difference, as Italy was among the first countries to do so).
  14. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    It's not the daily death toll we have now that , but the daily death toll we could have expected if this continued to accelerate unabated. 10 days ago we were seeing just 10 deaths per day; since when the toll has multipled 7 fold. If we allowed it to multiply 7 fold again over the next 10 days, and 7 fold again over the 10 days after that, we'd be seeing something like 5000 deaths per day 20 days from now. Plus the mortality from other causes like heart disease would be going up as well, due to the NHS being overwhelmed, many staff off sick and a few dead etc.
  15. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    Case total so far now over 400,000; death toll over 18,000 and continuing to accelerate. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Incidental note from San Marino: with 21 deaths so far out of a population of 33,400, this has the highest per capita death toll from Covid19 of any country in the world. It's dangerous and often inaccurate to extrapolate from small numbers, especially when the population of San Marino is as non-typical as you get (both older and richer than practically any other country out there), but the same per capita mortality in the UK would equate to a total of 42,000 deaths; worldwide, the same per capita mortality would equate to 4.7 million deaths. And that's before you get into the indirect mortality from people going nuts in lockdown or from people dying of other health conditions neglected thanks to this situation. And speaking of people going nuts, I learned this morning that I need to thoroughly self-isolate until the middle of next week. Day one of being confined to a bedroom + bathroom (to keep my wife as safe as possible) and I'm already crawling up the walls.
  16. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    Sorry to hear that. You're not alone - I think it's going to be a struggle for a lot of people with mental health issues. Are there any positives you can identify from the current situation, however? Any hobbies or activities you'd like to explore that can be done alone / with online help?
  17. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    They have that test. The only trouble is that its accuracy is in doubt https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-coronavirus-blood-test-antibodies
  18. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    I'm sorry to hear that. Is there any prospect of your old man going for one of the available extra jobs with supermarkets, delivery companies, or as agricultural labour? I know they aren't exactly enticing options, but better than nothing. (The much needed employment would be yet another reason to crack on with building extra hospital space, of course... not that staffing it properly looks at all feasible, but we need the beds).
  19. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    Unfortunately, it's not a day on day decline. Over the last three days the daily uk confirmed covid19 death total has been static if anything (56 then 48 then 54). But three days of steady figures can easily be a false summit, as we saw in Italy previously. With the ICUs of London filling up rapidly, it's going to become significantly harder to keep patients in ths epicentre alive. Assuming no treatment breakthrough etc etc
  20. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    You'd hope to see a slowdown in deaths 2 or 3 weeks post lockdown. The next week should show whether or not that applies. I'd like to hope that we'd follow a gentler course, but that's just one day's data.
  21. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    We'll see. The evidence from Italy and, recently, London indicates that a significant proportion of previously healthy adults are getting ARDS and requiring intensive care at least. And we've yet to see it peak in Italy, which suggests we can expect at least 2 weeks of the situation in the UK getting worse before it starts to get better.
  22. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    Yep, my general reckoning that that prediction was calculating from an excess mortality this year of about 75k, both from direct Covid19 deaths and indirect disruption to standard healthcare deaths, giving a midrange prediction of about 690k deaths for the year. It may well be that I'm wildly out in one direction or the other, however.
  23. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    Casual prediction: This year, the UK will see more deaths than in any year on record for the last hundred years (I'm not sure if we'll exceed the whopping 715,000 deaths seen in 1918 courtesy of WWI and the Spanish Flu, but I reckon 2020 will likely beat every year since then; for reference, the last year on record, 2018, saw 616,000 deaths).
  24. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    An account of conditions at the frontline in London: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/21/nhs-junior-doctor-stay-at-home-coronavirus Stay home, everyone, please.
  25. paddyfool

    Coronavirus death toll 2020

    Yes, there have been other disasters in the past of comparable or greater severity. But this is happening now, and is an increasing problem for just about all the world at once. I wouldn't want to try and guess if the final death toll is more likely to be 100,000 or 1 million, but doesn't make sense to ignore it.
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