Evil Grimace

The October estimate is a bit skewed as there were 25 hits and 4 obits found from past hits (8 August Squires, 13 September Yolande, 24 September K Baxter, 21 August E. Hoffman), making the October monthly rate high, on par with January. Regardless of when the hits came, they still add towards the final total. At the time of writing, the hits stand at 270, only 11 hits away from a new record. Again, the final total estimates have increased, having broken the 300 barrier. With 50 days left, a new record is certain, but how far will it go? Month Hits Predicted Total October 29 307 September 24 299 August 26 296 July 24 292 Jan-June 161 290

Cardinal Ouellet has decent odds at 7/1, but his chances are rapidly diminishing. He'll turn 80 on 8 June 2024, less than 8 months away. And don't I know it that he's almost been Pope before (Gambling on papal elections).... I've used that betting slip as the bookmark to my copy of 'The Screwtape Letters' by C.S. Lewis.

I'm guessing those odds came from this website (last updated 14 July)? Next Pope betting odds Two Americans listed with Timothy Dolan 12/1 and Raymond Leo Burke 8/1. Both are behind Canadian Mark Ouellet 7/1. (Yes, I know I'm replying months late. I was cleaning up browser tabs and bookmarks and remembered this; the next post is the good one).

WeWork files for bankruptcy in the US, which affects the company's business in the US and Canada. WeWork forced to file for bankruptcy in the US Ousted founder Adam Neumann's comments on the situation are amusing at best, as I'm sure it is "disappointing" and "challenging for me to watch" on top of the pile of money he was sent off with back in 2019.

Rob Burrow continues the form spotting opportunities with 'Seven: Rob Burrow, the podcast' hosted by himself and his wife. First guest has been Wayne Rooney. Wayne Rooney talks of alcohol struggles in new Rob Burrow podcast

@Sir Creep I have to agree with the bolded sentence. Richard Moll was making is debut in the DDP this year and was a hit. For comparison, his 'Night Court' castmate and former alcoholic John Larroquette has appeared four times (2020, 2017, 2016, 2015).

As Kenwright is the most recent entry at hit 256 for the DDP, it has created a 'triple bill' with Bill Hayden (21 Oct), Bill Gates (footballer) (22 Oct) and Bill Kenwright (23 Oct). With regards to @YoungWillz comments re: uniques, Kenwright has to be an example of research/lucky pick/recall. Kudos to the team 'The Cobbles Toll for Thee' for the unique hit, but more importantly for bringing him back to the DDP after a 7 year absence. 2015: diagnosed with liver cancer 2016: DDP pick for three teams https://www.derbydeadpool.co.uk/deadpool2016/celebs_K.html#kenwb0 2017-2022: falls off the radar* 2023: unique hit *the only other references I can find is mention and DDP Salvage comments by @DevonDeathTrip at the start of 2016 and in 2017 he's listed on @Rotten Ali Shadow List in his signature (edit: name does appear in pools on the forum)

@gcreptile your memory is correct - last picked in 2014, so List of the Missed. https://www.derbydeadpool.co.uk/deadpool2014/celebs_R.html#rowntr

With today's update on hits to the DDP the total is now 255. At the 24th October and 68 days left in the year, only 26 more hits are required for a new record. The only question is when it will happen. (Back of the envelope calculation estimates 1st December). Spoiler below compares 2023 to the years 2013-2022. These are all years with more than 200 hits and with an average of more than 500 teams.

October 23 Thirteenth hit: Bobby Charlton  A middle of the road pick with just under half of punters with the correct call. The pick benefits the bottom fifth as the six lowest ranked all registered a hit! With thirteen hits, the jostling for position begins in earnest. Players will begin to see negative scores assigned and bonuses are taken away. Hooray for spreadsheets for tracking! This has been a hit for 13 punters (13 hits, 0 joker). A few with Third hit bonuses (3 punters) too. Total hits: 13 Teams with hit: 13 Punters: The Daredevil, Dying Probably, chilean way, ThereWillBeDeaths7, Etushispushingupdaisies, Great Uncle Bulgaria, DoorSlammer, Book, The Duke of Deadinburgh, WinterCake, Grimgrass, Torva Messor, Annami Again, DoorSlammer gets a hit, with an impressive 11/13 hit rate. This also means a consistent rank on the tables with so many hits. Teams with joker: 0 Punters: N/A Third hit bonus First round (3 hits): WinterCake Second round (6 hits): Etushispushingupdaisies, Torva Messor Within 5 predicted hits: TQR, Book, Torva Messor (18 predicted hits) Within 1 predicted hit: Joey Russ (14 predicted hits) Exact hit match: Great Uncle Bulgaria, diego (13 predicted hits) Diego recaptures the lead with Great Uncle Bulgaria in second. Grimgrass relinquishes first for third place. Don’t get too comfortable…. Updated Score Charlton Third Hit Bonus Within 5 hits (18 predicted) Within 1 hit (14 predicted) Exact match (13 predicted) diego 1 4 Great Uncle Bulgaria -1 1 4 Grimgrass -3 1 -4 Joltin Joe -5 DoorSlammer -5 1 gcreptile -6 wannamaker -6 Etushispushingupdaisies -7 1 1 Book -7 1 2 LizLemon -8 Bibliogryphon -8 Joey Russ -8 2 Torva Messor -8 1 1 2 Sean -9 Newjack -9 Summer in Transylvania -10 tracy -10 Annami -10 1 TQR -10 2 YoungWillz -11 theoldlady -12 The Old Crem -12 Dying Probably -12 1 The Duke of Deadinburgh -12 1 Funeralopolis -13 Hell -13 ThereWillBeDeaths7 -13 1 The Daredevil -15 1 WinterCake -15 1 1 chilean way -18 1

A bit of nostalga (dangerous, I know) struck me after reading the thread and a few weeks ago I picked up a bottle of Bacardi White Rum. Memories of summers past. It has been a slog this week, so I finally got around to cracking open the bottle. Tastes exactly like I recall. Starting my third rum & coke. Tomorrow should be interesting.

There are 15 known chances for form spotting by early December. If that isn't a deadpooling goldmine, I don't know what is. He was a sub on my 2023 DDP roster, so I'm grateful to @lilham for this one.

And I thought I did a decent job of reviewing the past lists! I'm annoyed with myself that I missed Nash, b/c the 'Crash takes Nash' was a one-in-a-million title for his DL obit. So that's two of Lit with Solzhenitsyn and Pinter, Peace with Mother Teresa and Arafat and another Economic Sciences with Nash. That makes a hit rate of 7/9, missing only Arafat and Tutu. For the demographics of 11 picks: 0 Physics 0 Chemistry 0 Medicine or Physiology 2 Literature (Solzhenitsyn, Pinter) 7 Peace (Kissinger, Carter, Gorbachev, Tutu, Mandela, Mother Teresa, Arafat) 2 Economic Sciences (Friedman, Nash)

When I first read this, I dismissed it as a trivial question. Sen is notable as a recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (1998) and so DL worthy. What I think is the better question is would he be selected? And my first thought was no. But on looking at the evidence, it isn't impossible. The death hoax could have raised his profile. And the DL did select and get at hit from a past Economic Sciences winner. The DL does take economists as picks, such as Alan Greenspan. The table below summaries Nobel picks for the DL. Name Most Recent Year DL Nobel Appearances Hit (Y/N) Henry Kissinger 2023 Peace 11 - Jimmy Carter 2023 Peace 8 - Mikhail Gorbachev (d. 2022) 2022 Peace 2 Y Desmond Tutu (d. 2021) 2020 Peace 5 N Nelson Mandela (d. 2013) 2013 Peace 8 Y Milton Friedman (d. 2006) 2006 Economics 3 Y As you can see, they are overwhelmingly Peace laureates, three as former heads of governments. The main issues is there are more notable or older Laureates to pick. Robert Solow (Economic Sciences 1987) is 99 now and has been suggested before - and the DL likes their nonagenarians. Time for a Literature pick? Why not Bob Dylan age 82 (Lit 2016) or Wole Soyinka age 89 (Lit 1986)? Soyinka was also subject to a death hoax iirc. Want to stick with Peace? Lech Walesa is 80 and was unwell and unable to attend Queen Elizabeth's funeral last year. How much longer will Aung San Suu Kyi (age 78) endure house arrests, prison and sham trials? And last but not least, James Watson aged 95 (Med 1962) - possibly the only candidate I can think of that can put and keep their foot in their mouth more that Prince Philip; had a car accident in 2018 with an extended recovery. So what are the chances for Sen to be picked? TBH, slim to none. I cannot forecast the selections of the DL and I know of no market force to influence the outcome.

My entry is in which should hopefully qualify. Thanks for running. Just after I submitted my team, I thought of another fantastic choice, but that's for the next round...

The wisdom of the masses and also in this case, of Zoidberg, both show that the proposal for both Glynis Johns and Eva Marie Saint is the correct one. Please refer to the table below of the actresses named in the threads above and the number of picks they have in the 2023 DDP. Name DDP 2023 picks Glynis Johns 28 (D40) Kim Novak 3 Tippi Hedren 9 Eva Marie Saint 28 (D40) Ursula Andress 4

For those of the forum who like myself (briefly) considered him for next year and wondered if he'd QO, the Gurnard belts out the answer: Stephen Gould obituary

Getting the September estimate in early as the obits have been coming in in an orderly fashion. I figured a table will summarize how the recent estimate looks compared to previous ones. Month Hits Predicted Total September 24 299 August 26 296 July 24 292 Jan-June 161 290 Again it has crept up slightly (full details below). For those of you wondering if 300 is possible, read on. As of writing on 4 October, there are 236 hits total. At the end of September there were 235. The record is 280 from 2022. With three months left (88 days as of 4 October), even with 20 hits/month (20/31 = 0.65 monthly rate; estimated), or 60/88 (0.68 hits/day) that is well below the monthly rate of any month so far this year. And 235 +60 = 295. So yes, I'm confident that a new record will be set.

Two recent interviews by Billy Connolly. In summary: he enjoyed lockdowns at home with his wife and dogs, he's had some serious falls, need to get a lift everywhere and his wife is his full time carer. Billy Connolly had 'serious falls' after balance issues, says wife And a back and forth interview conducted by his wife: Billy Connolly’s most intimate interview yet (by his wife) The picture below is from the second interview, picture dated September 2023 in Key West, Florida.

With today's consistory, the number of cardinal electors is now 137 - a record. It will fall to 136 tomorrow (1 October) when Cardinal Patrick D'Rozairo turns 80. By the end of the year, there will be 132 cardinal electors and without any deaths of cardinals below the age of 80, it will take until at least 24 December 2024 when Cardinal Oswald Gracias turns 80 (the unknown birthday of Cardinal John Njue given as simply '1944' means he will certainly be 80 by the end of 2024). Pope Francis is making his mark on the College for the next 15 months without a doubt. Why this is notable is that the total of 137 surpasses the previous records set by JPII in 2001 and 2003 and when with his 'superconsistories' he increased the number of cardinal electors to 135 in 2001 and again in 2003 from 109 to 135. At the time, he stated he was setting aside the 120 limit. Given JPII's poor health at the time of these record numbers, Pope Francis' new record of 137, is his health going to see him make another consistory in 2025?

August hits have again increased the total number of hits to 296. End of July was 292, end of June was 290. August had 25 hits, plus one found behind the sofa for a final August total of 211. As of writing on 22 September, there are 224 hits total. A updated estimate puts the September final estimate at 232, shifted higher than the June (225) or July (228) estimates. Currently, the monthly hit rate had a big uptick from July (0.774) to August at 0.839.The yearly rate is well above 0.8, and matched a previous estimate, making me recheck my work! Still using the base rates that might be conservative, but again that error is reduced with each monthly update.

QO for Roger Whittaker Roger Whittaker: Durham Town folk singer dies at 87

*cough* Pope Benedict XVI, *cough, cough* Barbara Walters...

@Death Impends, wonderful write ups as always! Regarding US game show hosts, there is at least one remaining from Barker's era - Peter Marshall (dob 30 March 1926) of 'Hollywood Squares' fame. He's been a DDP mainstay since 2018, thanks to theme teams. He had a close brush with COVID in early 2021.

September 2 Twelfth hit: Mohamed Al-Fayed Well, it didn't take long for the 'no 11th hit without a 12th' rule of thumb to come into play. With twelve hits now, this moves the game into the range of 12-22 hits where the bonuses and penalties are given out like candy and snatched away from the babes too. A quick comment on the accounting to keep track of scores is in order then. At the start, everyone was given the penalty of -2 for not hitting a joker and -2 for being out by more than five hits. 22 jokers have been hit so many have had this penalty removed. But the hits range is -2 (starting default), then as the hits occur: +2 (5 or less out), +2 (within 1), +4 (exact match), -4 (not matching), -2 (more than 1 away), -2 (more than 5 away). The game has reached a player who is at the exact match and those at 12-17 predicted hits are at one or more penalties removed/bonus. This has been a hit for 7 punters (7 hits, 0 joker). A few with Third hit bonuses (4 punters) too. Total hits: 7 Teams with hit: 7 Punters: chilean way, ThereWillBeDeaths7, Great Uncle Bulgaria, DoorSlammer, The Duke of Deadinburgh, The Old Crem, Annami Again, DoorSlammer gets a hit, with an impressive 10/12 hit rate. Teams with joker: 0 Punters: N/A Third hit bonus First round (3 hits): Great Uncle Bulgaria Second round (6 hits): ThereWillBeDeaths7, The Old Crem, Annami Within 5 predicted hits: Etushispushingupdaisies, tracy, The Duke of Deadinburgh (17 predicted hits) Within 1 predicted hit: diego, Great Uncle Bulgaria (13 predicted hits) Exact hit match: Grimgrass (12 predicted hits) As mentioned above, the range of 12-22 hits will mean constant changes to the rankings based on hits alone. Grimgrass wides the lead in first place, with Diego in second and Joltin Joe in third. Tied at fourth are gcreptile, wannamaker, DoorSlammer and Great Uncle Bulgaria. Another hit will change the ranks again, as more bonuses come into play... Updated Score Al-Fayed Third Hit Bonus Within 5 hits (17 predicted) Within 1 hit (13 predicted) Exact match (12 predicted) Grimgrass 0 4 diego -3 2 Joltin Joe -5 gcreptile -6 wannamaker -6 DoorSlammer -6 1 Great Uncle Bulgaria -6 1 1 2 LizLemon -8 Bibliogryphon -8 Sean -9 Newjack -9 Etushispushingupdaisies -9 2 Summer in Transylvania -10 Joey Russ -10 Book -10 tracy -10 2 YoungWillz -11 Annami -11 1 1 TQR -12 Torva Messor -12 theoldlady -12 The Old Crem -12 1 1 Funeralopolis -13 Hell -13 Dying Probably -13 The Duke of Deadinburgh -13 1 2 ThereWillBeDeaths7 -14 1 1 The Daredevil -16 WinterCake -17 chilean way -19 1