Evil Grimace

I found this graphic summarizes just how rough 2023 has been, and it is only August. Three have been DDP hits (Superstar, Iron Sheik, Funk) for the respective wrestler theme teams.

August 26 Eleventh hit: Bob Barker The lowest of the 'Top Tier' picks has been a hit for 21 punters (20 hits, 1 joker). The 11th hit is a bonzana of points, with Third hit bonuses (9 punters benefit) and those at 16 hits moving out of the penalty. The lone player on 12 hits moves into bonus territory too. Total hits: 21 Teams with hit: 20 Punters: Joltin Joe, Dying Probably, chilean way, ThereWillBeDeaths7, wannamaker, Funeralopolis, Etushispushingupdaisies, tracy, YoungWillz, TQR, Great Uncle Bulgaria, DoorSlammer, Book, The Duke of Deadinburgh, Bibliogryphon, WinterCake, Grimgrass, Torva Messor, The Old Crem, Hell Teams with joker: 1 Punters: Annami Third hit bonus First round (3 hits): chilean way, The Duke of Deadinburgh, Grimgrass Second round (6 hits): Joltin Joe, Dying Probably, wannamaker, tracy, Bibliogryphon Third round (9 hits): DoorSlammer Realize how impressive this is. 5 punters have got 6/11 hits right, better than 50% hit rate. DoorSlammer has 9/11 and the two missed were a Designated Survivor (Parkinson) that no one hit and a Unique (Turner) called by only one punter. And yes, the correct calls are paying off. Within 5 predicted hits: theoldlady, gcreptile, wannamaker, LizLemon, Newjack (16 predicted hits) Within 1 predicted hit: Grimgrass (12 predicted hits) Yup, it starting to get complex at 11 hits - and this will only increase until 17 hits when all players are in the bonus and penalty removal ranges. A big hit and big changes in the rankings as things start to break up. We have a new first place with Grimgrass, with Diego and Joltin Joe tied for second place. Tied at third are gcreptile and wannamaker. In fourth is DoorSlammer. But don't get comfortable, the next hit will undoubtly shake things up. As has already been said by @msc 'no 11th hit without a 12th'. Updated Score Barker Joker Hit Third Hit Bonus Within 5 hits (16 predicted) Within 1 hit (12 predicted) Grimgrass -4 1 1 2 diego -5 Joltin Joe -5 1 1 gcreptile -6 2 wannamaker -6 1 1 2 DoorSlammer -7 1 1 LizLemon -8 2 Bibliogryphon -8 1 1 Sean -9 Newjack -9 2 Summer in Transylvania -10 Joey Russ -10 Book -10 1 Great Uncle Bulgaria -10 1 Etushispushingupdaisies -11 1 YoungWillz -11 1 TQR -12 1 Torva Messor -12 1 theoldlady -12 2 tracy -12 1 1 Funeralopolis -13 1 Hell -13 1 Dying Probably -13 1 1 Annami -13 4 The Old Crem -14 1 The Daredevil -16 ThereWillBeDeaths7 -16 1 The Duke of Deadinburgh -16 1 1 WinterCake -17 1 chilean way -20 1 1

Let me introduce you to his cartoon doppelganger, Simon Bar Sinister from 'Underdog'.

By chance I won a bottle of Theakstons Old Peculier in a raffle a few weeks ago. It was a nice amber ale, tasting faintly of choclate to me (website claims it is cherry and banana). Enjoyed it after work and would certainly try it again, if I could find it!

And it continues....Jonnie Irwin inundated with support as he beams with joy in update from 'best' few days away

It certainly seems that the DDP is on track for a record year. The revised estimate is now 292 as of the end of July. It was 290 at the end of June. July had 22 hits, plus obits for the ISIS leader and Brewer, so a total of 24 added to the June total of 161. As of writing on 19 August, there are 200 hits total. A updated estimate from July is 207 by end of August, with the older June estimate at 204. Currently, the monthly hit rate is still greater than 0.7 hits/day (21 hits/month), and the yearly rate is well above 0.8. It is entirely possible that using these base rates that the final totals are being underestimated, but that error will be reduced with each monthly update.

@time has it here. And this thread has the best tag line, so kudos @Paul Bearer. Everytime I read it, the voice and intonation is Parkinson's.

August 17 Tenth hit: Michael Parkinson A 'designated survivor' has fallen as the tenth hit. Despite not being picked by anyone, it does move several players who had 15 hits, out of that penalty. A quick update and a hit that brings the game close to the cusp of penalties being removed for those at 16 (5 players) and brings those at 12 (1 player) into bonus range. Total hits: 0 Teams with hit: 0 Punters: N/A Teams with joker: 0 Punters: N/A Third hit bonus: N/A Within 5 predicted hits: Joltin Joe, YoungWillz, Bibliogryphon, Sean (15 predicted hits) As mentioned above it gets complex at 11 hits - either for those who predicted 16 hits and the fact that the low predictors will be within 1 hit. All in all, a straightforward update, with 4 punters moving up the ranks. Joltin Joe jousts into second, Sean joins in a comfortable fourth and Bibliogryphon and YoungWillz edge up the ranks. Diego maintains first place, but 10 players - a third of those in play - are within 5 points of first. Updated Score Parkinson Within 5 hits (15 predicted) diego -5 Joltin Joe -7 2 Grimgrass -8 gcreptile -8 DoorSlammer -9 Sean -9 2 Summer in Transylvania -10 wannamaker -10 LizLemon -10 Joey Russ -10 Bibliogryphon -10 2 Book -11 Newjack -11 Great Uncle Bulgaria -11 Etushispushingupdaisies -12 YoungWillz -12 2 TQR -13 Torva Messor -13 theoldlady -14 Funeralopolis -14 Hell -14 tracy -14 Dying Probably -15 The Old Crem -15 The Daredevil -16 Annami -17 ThereWillBeDeaths7 -17 The Duke of Deadinburgh -18 WinterCake -18 chilean way -22

Rob Burrow's at a brewery that has made a new beer, 'Burrow's Blonde' to support his charities from the proceeds of its sale. New picture dated 13 August. Brewery to help Rob Burrow in Motor Neurone Disease battle

From the article: "Irwin is reportedly undergoing traditional cancer-blocking drugs as well as trialling alternative therapies including infusions of vitamin C, a cocktail of daily vitamins, a strict diet and treatment in an oxygen chamber." With the vitamin C and cocktail of daily vitamins he's embracing the medically unproven idea that megadoses of vitamin C can fight cancer. I've yet to see any peer reviewed or meta analysis that shows it is effective in fighting cancer. The legacy of medical hacks like Irwin Stone who had the support of Nobel laureate Linus Pauling (the originator of megadoses of vitamin C) does little else but offer false hope and cold comfort. The cocktail of vitamins has another issue of the fat versus water soluble vitamins. He's already weakened by cancer, so if in excess, the fat soluble vitamins could strain his organs, especially his liver and kidneys leading to hypertension, raise his calcium blood levels and risk heart failure. I will say this, he's making some expensive urine.

Hot off the internet! Sixto Rodriguez: Searching for Sugar Man singer dies aged 81

Another bold prediction: 2023 will be the first time in Drop 40 history to have the top 5 picks all be hits. Taking into account the recent updates on James Whale (not doing his show), Jimmy Carter (hospice updates) and Jonnie Irwin (all moments sold to tabloids), with under five months left, and given their conditions, it seems probable. I see Carter as the likely stumbling block. I don't think a sweep of the top 10 is possible, thanks to #6 being Frank Field. Only 2020 with 17 D40 hits came close with 7 of the top 10 as hits. Only three years have had 3 of the top 5 as hits: 2020, 2019 and 2013. And I think it is time for 2023 to outclass them.

Correction to the scores made for Kundera, as two players were not awarded points. I guess I forgot to 'czech' my work. That error carried over into Bennett's update, so it has been fixed too. Rainy afternoons are good for pouring over spreadsheets it seems.

July 22 - updated and edited 31 July Ninth hit: Tony Bennett A low end hit that still gives a lot of movement in the rankings. 11 punters get the hit, with one joker. Total hits: 11 Teams with hit:10 Punters: Joltin Joe, gcreptile, The Daredevil, LizLemon, tracy, TQR, Summer in Transylvania, DoorSlammer, Bibliogryphon, Torva Messor Teams with joker: 1 Punters: Etushispushingupdaisies One of the few lone jokers is hit. With the joker clearance of Sakamoto (9) and Harris (11), this makes 21/30 (70%) jokers cashed out. For this joker hit, Etushispushingupdaisies advances up nine places in the rankings, no small feat. Third hit bonus: gcreptile, The Daredevil Two more players have made their sixth hit, and garnered another third hit bonus. With the last crop to do so with Kundera (8th hit) and two more with Bennett (9th hit), getting 6/8 or 6/9 is a high rate of success. Within 5 predicted hits: Joey Russ (14 predicted hits) It's gonna get messy at 10 hits - either for those who predicted 15 hits and the fact that the low predictors will be within 2 hits. A fair bit of movement across the board, with diego maintaining the first place lead. Second, third place and fourth places all rather crowded. Still anyone's game. Updated Score Bennett Joker Hit Third Hit Bonus Within 5 hits (14 predicted) diego -5 Grimgrass -8 gcreptile -8 1 1 Joltin Joe -9 1 DoorSlammer -9 1 wannamaker -10 Book -10 LizLemon -10 1 Joey Russ -10 2 Sean -11 Newjack -11 Great Uncle Bulgaria -11 Summer in Transylvania -11 1 Bibliogryphon -12 1 Etushispushingupdaisies -12 4 Hell -13 TQR -13 1 Torva Messor -13 1 theoldlady -14 YoungWillz -14 Funeralopolis -14 tracy -14 1 Dying Probably -15 The Old Crem -15 The Daredevil -16 1 1 Annami -17 ThereWillBeDeaths7 -17 The Duke of Deadinburgh -18 WinterCake -18 chilean way -22

Update 13 July Eighth hit: Milan Kundera Another middle of the road hit. 16 punters get the hit, with no jokers. Total hits: 16 Teams with hit:16 Punters: Joltin Joe, gcreptile, The Daredevil, chilean way, ThereWillBeDeaths7, wannamaker, LizLemon, Funeralopolis, Etushispushingupdaisies, tracy, Summer in Transylvania, DoorSlammer, Book, Newjack, Hell, diego Teams with joker: 0 Punters: N/A Third hit bonus: LizLemon, Etushispushingupdaisies, Summer in Transylvania, Book, Hell Several of these players have made their sixth hit (LizLemon, Summer in Transylvania, Book, Hell) and garnered another third hit bonus. Within 5 predicted hits: Great Uncle Bulgaria, diego Movement across the board, with +3 for diego helping to widen to a first place lead. Third place and fourth places both crowded. Updated Score Kundera Third Hit Bonus Within 5 hits (13 predicted) diego -5 1 2 Grimgrass -8 gcreptile -10 1 Joltin Joe -10 1 wannamaker -10 1 DoorSlammer -10 1 Book -10 1 1 Sean -11 Newjack -11 1 Great Uncle Bulgaria -11 2 LizLemon -11 1 1 Joey Russ -12 Summer in Transylvania -12 1 1 Bibliogryphon -13 Hell -13 1 1 theoldlady -14 YoungWillz -14 TQR -14 Torva Messor -14 Funeralopolis -14 1 Dying Probably -15 The Old Crem -15 tracy -15 1 Etushispushingupdaisies -16 1 1 Annami -17 ThereWillBeDeaths7 -17 1 The Duke of Deadinburgh -18 WinterCake -18 The Daredevil -18 1 chilean way -22 1

Hungerford got at least two obits: BBC and Telegraph

Pope Francis is holding that consistory on 30 September, under two weeks from when the number of cardinals under 80 has just dropped to 119 on 17 September. With 18 added, that swells the number of cardinal electors to 137. By the end of the year 5 cardinals will have turned 80 (one turns 80 on the 1 October; a Francis created one) and by the end of April 2024, another 5 cardinals will be over 80. That's still 127. It will take until the end of 2024 for that number to drop below/to 120, so he's really putting his stamp on the College and the cardinal electors. Of the cardinals that will be 80 by the end of 2024, 8 were created by Francis, 9 were created by Benedict XVI and 3 were created by John Paul II. Of course, this doesn't account for any deaths. Could this be his last consistory? And is it finally time for him to ascend to the lofty ranks for the DL?

Clearly there to do some window shopping!

TL;DR summary: if the monthly hit rate is greater than or equals 0.7 hits/day (21 hits/month), or the yearly rate stays above 0.8 we are in for a record year. Yearly rate = total hits on the day/day of year out of 365. For example, 30 June hits were 161 and 30 June is day 181 of 365. So 161/181 = 0.890. I'm blaming both @YoungWillz and @Gooseberry Crumble for giving me ideas. It is just over half the year and despite @Gooseberry Crumble lamenting missed picks, this year has had a great first half. And I'll make a prediction - it will be a record setting year with 290 hits. As I write on 5 July, there are 164 hits. As of 30 June at 161 hits, it is the best performing year so far compared to 2020, 2021 and 2022. I've used these years as the spread of total hits is low: 2020 (278), 2021 (275), 2022 (280). Kudos for precision deadpoolers. First off, why such a good tally end of June? Two reasons - no May or June slump in hits that happened every year 2020-2022. And this is despite having the worst 31 January tally in 2023 vs 2020-2022. I've hidden the maths below so as not to trigger the forum users. I'm confident in this prediction. And I'll try to update it as the results come in. Always happy to hear any comments, suggestions, why you hated your maths teacher, etc. Edit: If you really want a bumper year, find QOs for the LotL; I suspect that the low number of them is partly a reason for the success. Also, why call out @YoungWillz? The knack of finding QOs weeks and months later made me realize that my initial counts were inaccurate, b/c ofc @YoungWillz had turned it up and it was put in its correct date. Dedication to the cause.

The Economist is listed as a QO source, so this should fittingly qualify as such for Economics laureate Harry Markowitz: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/06/26/americans-love-american-stocks-they-should-look-overseas It mentions the day of his death (22 June) in the article before the rest is blocked out.

Another update on Rob Burrow. At a Father's Day fun run with his children who push him over the finish line. He's briefly at the beginning of the video, but not responsive to cheers, etc. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=863YRXNrtXw BBC article gives minor details of the event too.

I'm inclided to agree with this for several reasons: 1) Kaczynski was moved in Dec 2021 to the medical facility 2) his letter to a penpal in early 2022 (written Jan/Feb?) states he had two years at most with his terminal cancer; still unknown type of cancer 3) his death in June 2023 is 19 months after he was moved 4) his father commited suicide by gunshot in October 1990, having been diagnosed with terminal lung cancer in 1990 5) he wrote about his father's suicide in his 2016 book 'Like father, like son' seems to fit. I've yet to see point #4 mentioned in any obits or references to the Unabomber's reported suicide.

Name Points 1 Jan Birthday Age (Points @ BDay) Teams Jokers Jonnie Irwin 10 18 Nov 1973 50(9) 146 63 Henry Kissinger 5 27 May 1923 100(4) 86 5 Yoko Ono 6 18 Feb 1933 90(5) 48 0 Willie Nelson 6 29 April 1933 90(5) 30 1 Glynis Johns 5 5 Oct 1923 100(4) 28 3 Analysis – as of 27 May 2023 These are the D40 picks that will cross a threshold in age that leads to a point loss by moving into a lower point bracket. It is lower than the past two years (2022 had 6, 2021 had 9). It is a tight race and anyone’s game now. As every point counts, some players may regret their choices or pay attention to birth years in the future. Of course, the points for being at D40 pick are not impacted, just the base points from the pick’s age. They could still surprise with a party pooper bonus (cough, Kissinger, cough). I started writing back in March, but that reminded me today to finish it up.

I'd say the Committee have excellent judgement and/or extremely lucky - they've done this for three picks this year so far. Musharraf - 2004, 2020, 2023 Lawson - 2012, 2023 (impressive!) Turner - 2019, 2023 If that pattern holds then, Nolan - 2018, 2021, 2023(?) Marcos - 2020, 2021, 2023(?) Khamenei - 2011, 2021, 2023(?) They've managed it before too, Jerry Lee Lewis 2022, last picked 1993 (!!!!) John Edrich 2020, last picked 2011, 2010 Charles Aznavour 2018, last 2014, 1990 And if you are thinking ahead to 2024... Jake 'The Snake' Roberts, last picked in 2015.

Update 25 May Seventh hit: Tina Turner Now it is a hit that benefits the least number of players, only 2. This is probably the quickest update to the scores. From now until 27 hits (!!) the penalty range and bonuses for correct number of hits come into play. Should any designated survivors be a hit, they still add to the total number of hits, and any hit will affect multiple players. Total hits: 1 Teams with hit:1 Punter: The Old Crem Teams with joker:0 Punters: 0 Unique hits:1 Punter: The Old Crem The first unique of the game is claimed by The Old Crem. Third hit bonus: N/A And consecutive hits have stopped.... Within 5 predicted hits: Grimgrass This means the -2 penalty is removed, as it was applied to all players at the start. Many more players will begin to have this removed, as the predicted number of hits spans 12 to 22, with all numbers inclusive chosen at least once. Least amount of movement on the board to date, but significant to two punters as The Old Crem moves up two places and Grimgrass now tied for first place with diego. Updated Score Turner Unique Within 5 hits (12 predicted) diego -8 Grimgrass -8 2 gcreptile -11 Joltin Joe -11 wannamaker -11 Sean -11 DoorSlammer -11 Joey Russ -12 Book -12 Newjack -12 Great Uncle Bulgaria -13 Bibliogryphon -13 LizLemon -13 Summer in Transylvania -14 theoldlady -14 YoungWillz -14 TQR -14 Torva Messor -14 Funeralopolis -15 Hell -15 Dying Probably -15 The Old Crem -15 1 1 tracy -16 Annami -17 The Duke of Deadinburgh -18 Etushispushingupdaisies -18 ThereWillBeDeaths7 -18 WinterCake -18 The Daredevil -19 chilean way -23