Predictor

Well, the forum can save text as draft before you hit reply. It comes up as "Your previous content has been restored" when you return to it.

Rest in peace, Robert Durst. Don't know anything about him, but I reckon he should have been knighted. Edited to add: Whoa, just read about who this man actually was. I completely take back what I said about knighthood. He wasn't British.

I dropped two people from the 2021 Drop 40. Bilton felt to me like one of those "previously unknown turned flavour of the year" picks last year. I figured he isn't a household name for casual players, nor has had a serious recent deterioration in health for serious deadpoolers. I could see him getting on lots of teams, but still ousted by enough newcomers. Rolf Harris is a bit harder to motivate, just my gut feeling. I forgot about Woodward, definitely one of the contenders (and Barbara Walters in the same category of 90+ woman with dementia). Hardy is another good guess. I think Zeman is one of the names that mostly lives in this little deathlist community bubble, but has less staying power outside of it. If he was verifiably at death's door, then I'd be more convinced of his inclusion. No Poitier? He has been in the 20-region in the past few years, and I expect at least 30 teams to pick him this time.

Have always been too much of a coward to go up against the genius deadpoolers of the forum. But since I'm trying all sorts of different pools this year...I'm in.

My prediction: 1. George Alagiah 2. David Attenborough (new) 3. Ady Barkan (new) 4. Bob Barker 5. Harry Belafonte (new) 6. Pope Benedict 7. Russell Bishop (new) 8. Gary Burgess (new) 9. Rob Burrow (new) 10. Jimmy Carter 11. Bobby Charlton (new) 12. Billy Connolly 13. Jacques Delors (new) 14. Shannen Doherty 15. Dick Van Dyke 16. Queen Elizabeth 17. Frank Field (new) 18. Paul Gascoigne (new) 19. Mikhail Gorbachev 20. Henry Kissinger 21. Angela Lansbury 22. Jerry Lee Lewis 23. Shane MacGowan (new) 24. Olivia Newton-John 25. Linda Nolan 26. Yoko Ono 27. Tom Parker 28. Pele (new, will be #1) 29. George Perez (new) 30. Leslie Phillips 31. Sidney Poitier (new) 32. Eva Marie Saint (new) 33. Prunella Scales 34. Tom Smith 35. Susie Steiner (new) 36. Jean-Louis Trintignant (new) 37. Bill Turnbull 38. Frankie Valli (new) 39. Doddie Weir 40. James Whale Contenders: Emperor Akihito, Jana Bennett, Tony Bennett, Mel Brooks, Clint Eastwood, Rolf Harris, Glynis Johns, Willie Nelson, Vicky Phelan, Linda Ronstadt, Donald Trump, Gianluca Vialli & Tom Weiskopf

1922: Annette Warren / Bert I. Gordon 1923: Jessica Blair / Bill Spence 1924: Helen Grayco / Woody Woodbury 1925: Mildred Kornman / Michel Bouquet 1926: Margaret Barton / David Frankham 1927: Jean Lodge / Elliot Silverstein 1928: Jeannie Carson / Rudy Challenger 1929: Isa Barzizza / Don Murray 1930: Pat Suzuki / Frank Price 1931: Angie Dickinson / Mario Zagallo

I hope not. That would ruin my dream of her marrying Harry Kane so that her new name becomes Kane Kane.

My Hares team. Appropriately for this pool, I went down the rabbit hole and found these mostly obscure folks. But you know what they say, Swedes never wins any deathpools because they need step-by-step instruction manuals to assemble things... 1. Anibal Velasquez 2. Bill Rasmussen 3. Bill Spence 4. Bill Steel 5. Casey DeSantis 6. Cynthia Mulligan 7. Darren Dutchyshen 8. Ed Gale 9. Eoghan Harris 10. Eric Lamaze 11. Esteban Bullrich 12. Gareth O'Callaghan (joker) 13. Graham Spanier 14. Jonny Nilsson 15. Johnny Whitaker 16. Jorge Ortiz de Pinedo 17. Kalki Bhagawan 18. Mosharraf Hossain 19. Natalie Kwadrans 20. Silas Alexander III 21. Terry Bivins 22. Thomas Sleeper 23. Timea Toth 24. Tony Brown 25. Wojciech Onsorge Subs: Frank Price Lars Vogt David Tomassoni Ashley Monroe Artur Albarran

Decided to give this one a go. My main objective is to get as many 7-pointers as possible from an ancient group of people. Team name = Rotciderp (read backwards) 1. Ames, Ed (American singer and actor) 2. Ball, Vincent (British-Australian actor) 3. Birch, Patricia (American choreographer) 4. Brook, Peter (British director) 5. Burke Jr, Jack (American golfer) 6. Butler, Robert (American director) 7. Coates, Phyllis (American actress) 8. Collins, Cora Sue (American actress) 9. Cooper, Pat (American actor and comedian) 10. Craig, Michael (British actor) 11. Dooley, Paul (American actor) 12. Hoffman, Elizabeth (American actress) 13. Gallagher, Helen (American actress) 14. Greene, Shecky (American comedian) 15. Hayes, Bill (American actor and singer) 16. Hughes, Kathleen (American actress) 17. Janis, Conrad (American actor and jazz musician) 18. Jones, Dub (American NFL player) 19. Jones, L.Q. (American actor) 20. Knowlden, Marilyn (American actress) 21. Landgre, Inga (Swedish actress) 22. Legrand, Mirtha (Argentine actress) 23. Linn, Bambi (American dancer) 24. Miller, Mark (American actor) 25. Murayama, Tomiichi (Japanese former prime minister) 26. Nash, Noreen (American actress) 27. Page, Genevieve (French actress) 28. Patton, Virginia (American actress) 29. Pearlstein, Philip (American realism painter) 30. Pointer, Priscilla (American actress) 31. Raye, Carol (British-Australian actress) 32. Shane, Sara (American actress) 33. Shantz, Bobby (American baseball player) 34. Silva, Henry (American actor) 35. Silverstein, Elliot (American director) 36. Strougal, Lubomir (President of Czechoslovakia) 37. Taka, Miiko (American actress) 38. Turkel, Joe (American actor) 39. Wade, Abdoulaye (Senegalese former president) 40. White, Ted (American stuntman) Rejected names: Ryan, Eileen (American actress) Stroock, Gloria (American actress)

Another person possibly in the same category is Graham Spanier, who I considered for a short while. Feels too similar to that other dude in the Jerry Sandusky case who you picked once and who's still alive today.

Sorry @Spade_Cooley I also picked Bill Steel (not in a Corrie theme team though). Could still be a good differential for you. My team. 1. George Alagiah: One of four returnees. A D40 certainty. 2. Ady Barkan: Has had ALS for a long time now. Never had him before, so not tired of him unlike others. 3. Michel Bouquet: Hasn't been picked in the DDP since 2015, but I'll be stunned if that streak continues. Especially with a French theme team around. Whatever the case, I don't think he'll see 2023. 4. Gary Burgess (joker): Just a matter of time. 5. Frank Field: Same. 6. Sacheen Littlefeather: She is special to me, because I was the first one to pick her in DDP. She has been a unique for me twice. She has been sick for a long time now. If she is a winning pick for me, then I should get a spokesperson for a random cause to accept the prize for me. Maybe someone from the oppressed group of gamers? 7. Clare Marx: Was a bit unsure about her obit chances. But being the first female something does increase the chances. Also, there is QO precedent in Norman Browse. 8. Linda Nolan: My only returnee from last year. I was very undecided on this one. 9. Pele: I don't think he is a dead cert, but a high enough likelihood. Edit: Ok, maybe he is a dead cert. 10. George Perez: Seems like an almost guaranteed points for this year. Just to be sure regarding QO, I saw that Dennis O'Neil got a Daily Mail obit in 2020. 11. Bill Steel: More specific than just Alzheimers, which means that he won't be around that much longer. 12. Susie Steiner: Another likely death for 2022. Unsure about D40. 13. Jean-Louis Trintignant: Returnee who I'm surprised is still alive. Second French male actor on my team. 14. Bill Turnbull: Was either him or Weiskopf. Turnbull is a more likely D40. 15. James Whale: Another mainstream pick. Risky unique hopefuls: Ed Gale (b. 1963): A few days ago, I started reading about studio executive Frank Price. That led me to the film Howard the Duck, which led me to discover Ed Gale. Who? He's an actor with dwarfism who played Howard (in the duck costume). He was also the doll Chucky in the horror franchise Child's Play. So that's the main character in two 1980s cult classics. Why him? Well, I don't want to link his Facebook page (feels too intrusive), but he has stated in one of the livestreams that he is terminally ill (hint: 4 June 2021). I think it's lung-related because he has one of those oxygen tubes. He hasn't been active in a while, so I hope he is still alive. If he isn't, then that's just sad on so many levels. Cross that, definitely still alive. Obit is uncertain but his resume makes it worth the risk. Very headline-friendly for the likes of Guardian. Eoghan Harris (b. 1943): Irish writer with returning prostate cancer. Felt a bit too local, but the recent Twitter scandal, which cost him his job, made its way to some British newspapers. Self-described as having "terminal cancer" and "limited time left" in an article from May 2021. He said that Sinn Fein had an even more malignant cancer, which made me think "dunno who that is, but maybe I can add both to my team". Lol... Mosharraf Hossain (b. 1981): Brain cancer, hospitalized in October. Major QO risk. I reasoned that cricket is big enough a sport in the UK that maybe he'll get a mention somewhere. He also had an arguably better international career than Tahir Mughal (just 5 ODIs but still). His last ODI was in 2016 against England. Bangladesh is one of the top teams in the world, so what would that be the equivalent of in different sports? A Finnish ice hockey player with a few caps getting Canadian obits? Btw, got picked in Deathrace so looks like not only on my radar... Eric Lamaze (b. 1968): Horse jumping Canadian. Was picked by someone in Scavenger game in June. A recent update from November seems to indicate that he is still struggling. How fatal it is, I have no clue. Wouldn't have gambled if he didn't win gold in Beijing. Bill Spence (b. 1923): British writer. I was looking for someone who was just below centenarian (for 5+ points), with decent likelihood of obit (the reveal made the news), and with some degree of health problems. All the while being unmentioned around here, but maybe Biblio has him? Also, I just think he is a really fascinating person. Was tempted to add all his pen names and disguise it as a full team. So when Bill Spence dies, so does Jessica Blair, Duncan Spence, Jim Bowden, Floyd Rogers, Kirk Ford & Hannah Cooper, and I get points for each one. Alas, for a pseudonymoholic, he didn't have nearly enough names for a team.

She was also Muriel in The Suite Life of Zack & Cody. This isn't helping her claim to fame in your eyes, ist it?

As usual, there are some newcomers that I've never heard of, so I can't tell if they are good or bad picks from a health perspective. But when you don't see certain names you were hoping for (i.e. Eva Marie Saint), you do become biased against some who did make the cut. Notice how only 10 out of 50 people are women? In a way, I can understand. I myself found more ill male celebs than female when creating my different teams. However, they could have tried to make it a little less uneven.

Really? Maybe I should start drinking new year's champagne more often then. Feel free to develope something with these ideas. They're public domain.

Some wacky deathpooling ideas... Odd Couple deathpool: You get assigned to another participant as teammate. You come up with half the team each and are not allowed to communicate with each other. Admin temporarily disables PMs between you. Two players in the top 10 of the last DDP cannot be drawn with each other. Think you have excellent submissions? Watch it all be undone by your teammate's awful picks. Charity deathpool: Each player submits a small number of celebrities. But you don't get to have them on your team, they'll be sent to random players. In turn, you will get others' picks. To prevent purposely "donating" really bad picks, you get point reduction if they don't die or summat. The I-hate-the-host-of-this-game-and-wish-they-were-dead game: You don't get to decide which celebs will be on your team. The host does, and completely arbitrarily at that. Bribing the host is disallowed, but it's probably to your benefit if you are on good terms with him/her. Peter Falk deathpool: You make a list of 100 names and send it to the host. One day when you least expect it (could be months later), the host will come to your house and take you directly to a classroom. There, you will be asked to write down as many of the 100 names as you can remember. Only those who you remembered correctly will be given points for if they die. Staring at the blank paper for minutes, you will no doubt start to wonder if you actually have early-stage dementia. Note: This game might work best locally with your mates. The zoopool: The host, preferrably a zookeeper, will show pictures of every single animal there is at a particular zoo. Your job is to pick 20 of them who you think will die within the next year. The winner gets a guided tour around the zoo, as well as large posters of each of their hits to hang on their bedroom wall. The reincarnation game: Your picks dying is not enough. You ONLY score if you can prove without a doubt that they are back among the living in another form.

Vanessa Hudgens. Undisputed #1 to me for the past 15 years. I also like Ariana Grande, Emma Stone, Amanda Seyfried, Sarah Hyland, Cameron Diaz, Jessica Alba, etc.

He is referring to competitive teams. It is getting harder and harder to find uniques who are under a certain age, likely to die, and will get a qualifying obituary. It could be worth it even if the pick is old, but there is a risk that a nonagenarian unique hopeful is chosen by another team as well. Suddenly, you go from 9 points to a mere 5. I highlighted in green the kind of uniques that most title conteders dream of in an updated version of a venn diagram I did a few years ago. You want to find someone who is notable enough to score, yet not so famous that everyone else will immediately notice that they are really ill. So, on the right side of the "sick-famous" border.

I have actually seen death by Bongo in the world of fiction. One of Disney's more obscure releases was a two-in-one film, of which one's about a circus bear named Bongo. After a catchy musical number that's almost like an ode to physical abuse (or borderline wild bears' S&M culture?), there is an action scene with an intimidating bear. That bear ends up falling down the waterfall and probably drowning.

Time is running out... Last year, Christie Blatchford was a non-QO for me and now this. Both in the same field, both females born in North America, and both dying at age 68. My "note to self" practically writes itself for next year. Actually, forget the DDP for a moment. Carol didn't even get a local obituary. Would she even pass the low requirement for Hare's and Deathrace? Shame on British media. She wasted so many years working in a country that doesn't give a single fuck. WTF.

Going with a 100% local centenarians team. 1. Ingrid Arvidsson 2. Ingrid Bergholtz 3. Lise Drougge 4. Ingrid Hansson 5. Maj-Britt Håkansson 6. Everett Lee 7. Gunnar Ljungdahl 8. Marianne Rasmuson 9. Mai Raud-Pähn 10. Mariana Stjerna 11. Astrid Söderbaum 12. Irene Söderblom 13. Kajsa Telander 14. Ella Tengbom-Velander 15. Inga Tobiasson

Any Ingmar Bergman fans here? I made a list of survivors from his movies. Well, it might be pointless to include the ones from the 70s and 80s. How about 1946-1969? Kris/Crisis - 1946: Inga Landgre (b. 1927) Det regnar på vår kärlek/It Rains on Our Love - 1946: N/A Skepp till Indialand/A Ship Bound for India - 1947: Amy Aaröe (b. 1925) Musik i mörker/Music in Darkness - 1948: N/A Hamnstad/Port of Call - 1948: See end of post Fängelse/Prison - 1949: Anita Blom (b. 1929) Törst/Thirst - 1949: Monica Eek (b. 1941) Till glädje/To Joy - 1950: Margit Carlqvist (b. 1932) & Björn Montin (b. 1941) Sånt händer inte här/This Can't Happen Here - 1950: Gunwer Bergkvist (b. 1932) Sommarlek/Summer Interlude - 1951: Gerd Andersson (b. 1932) Kvinnors väntan/Secrets of Women - 1952: Björn Bjelfvenstam (b. 1929) & Gerd Andersson Sommaren med Monika/Summer with Monika - 1953: Harriet Andersson (b. 1932) & Carl-Uno Larsson (b. 1944) Gycklarnas afton/Sawdust and Tinsel - 1953: Harriet Andersson & Göran Lundqvist (b. 1941) En lektion i kärlek/A Lesson in Love - 1954: Harriet Andersson, Yvonne Lombard (b. 1929) & Göran Lundqvist Kvinnodröm/Dreams - 1955: Inga Landgre, Björn Bjelfvenstam & Harriet Andersson Sommarnattens leende/Smiles of a Summer Night - 1955: Björn Bjelfvenstam, Margit Carlqvist, Harriet Andersson & Lena Söderblom (b. 1935) Det sjunde inseglet/The Seventh Seal - 1957: Inga Landgre, Lars Lind (b. 1935) & Lena Bergman (b. 1943, daughter) Smultronstället/Wild Strawberries - 1957: Björn Bjelfvenstam, Gio Petre (b. 1937), Eva Möller (b. 1938), Göran Lundqvist & Lena Bergman Nära livet/Brink of Life - 1958: Inga Landgre, Lars Lind & Kristina Adolphson (b. 1937) Ansiktet/The Magician - 1958: Birgitta Pettersson (b. 1939) Jungfrukällan/The Virgin Spring - 1960: Birgitta Pettersson Djävulens öga/The Devil's Eye - 1960: Kristina Adolphson Såsom i en spegel/Through a Glass Darkly - 1961: Harriet Andersson Nattvardsgästerna/Winter Light - 1963: Eddie Axberg (b. 1947) Tystnaden/The Silence - 1963: Jörgen Lindström (b. 1951) För att inte tala om alla dessa kvinnor/All These Women - 1964: Harriet Andersson Persona - 1966: Liv Ullmann (b. 1938) & Jörgen Lindström Vargtimmen/Hour of the Wolf - 1968: Liv Ullmann & Mikael Rundquist (b. 1955) Skammen/Shame - 1968: Liv Ullmann En passion/The Passion of Anna - 1969: Liv Ullmann, Annicka Kronberg (b. 1944) & Malin Ek (b. 1945) Gunlög Hagberg (1931-2021) played one of the flagellants in The Seventh Seal. She died on 29 September 2021 but IMDb still has her as alive. Else-Merete Heiberg was in Port of Call & Thirst, but I couldn't verify that she is still alive as of December 2021. This is because she is Norwegian and not as famous as Ullmann. Maybe Old Lady or Putin knows. If alive, then every single of Bergman's release years has at least one survivor. On a similar note, Maud Elfsiö moved to Denmark. She was in Brink of Life. Another immigrant is Hariette Garellick, who lives/lived in USA so no clue here either. She was in Crisis. Another cast member of Bergman's first film is Carin Cederström. Born in 1925, very little information and I don't want to assume that she's alive just cuz there's no death date online.

孔子和平獎 What? Chinese alternative to the Nobel Peace Prize. Since? 2010. When? 9 December. Why? For promotion of world peace from an Eastern, Confucian perspective; to declare China's view on peace and human rights to the world. By? The Association of Chinese Indigenous Arts. The Chinese government has denied having any connections with the prize. Past winners? 2010 - Lien Chan (1936) 2011 - Vladimir Putin (1952) 2012 - Kofi Annan (1938) & Yuan Longpin (1930) 2013 - Yi Cheng (1927) 2014 - Fidel Castro (1926-2016) 2015 - Robert Mugabe (1924) Joke? Nope, this is an actual award! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confucius_Peace_Prize As a Scandinavian, I absolutely love it and can't wait to find out who the upcoming winner will be!

Sorry for going a bit off-topic in this post, but I thought I'd share some information about the oldest living footballers in my country. I made sure to confirm in a reliable source that these people are indeed alive today. Top 10 oldest living footballers 1. Hans Tvilling (15 July 1928): 93 2. Reino Börjesson (4 Feb 1929): 92 3. Sven Lindberg (30 Jan 1930): 91 4. Henry Thillberg (17 Aug 1930): 91 5. Charles Gustafsson (25 Dec 1932): 88 6. Lennart Backman (7 Feb 1934): 87 7. Lars-Erik Ahlberg (5 June 1934): 87 8. Gösta Lundell (14 Oct 1934): 87 9. Kurt Hamrin (10 Nov 1934): 87 10. Lennart Svensson (18 Nov 1934): 87 Interestingly, Tvilling had a MUCH better ice hockey career. I'd like to see athletes try excelling in more than one sport today...Anyway, I was unable to confirm that Arne Larsson (27 Apr 1931) and Leif Forsberg (6 Oct 1932) are still alive. Living players capped before 1960 (number of caps during year in parenthesis). 1950: - 1951: Hans Tvilling (2), Reino Börjesson (1) 1952: - 1953: Henry Thillberg (4), Kurt Hamrin (3) 1954: Henry Thillberg (8), Kurt Hamrin (8) 1955: Kurt Hamrin (9), Bertil Nilsson (4), Henry Thillberg (3) & Charles Gustafsson (1) 1956: Henry Thillberg (4) & Jan Ekström (3) 1957: Reino Börjesson (2), Jan Ekström (2), Charles Gustafsson (1), Harry Bild (1) & Lars-Erik Ahlberg (1), 1958: Reino Börjesson (7), Kurt Hamrin (5), Lennart Backman (2) & Owe Ohlsson (1) 1959: Lennart Backman (4), Henry Thillberg (3), Harry Bild (3), Owe Ohlsson (1), Lars-Erik Ahlberg (1) & Nils Johansson (1) Ekström was apparently originally included in the 1958 WC squad, but was ultimately omitted. Injuries stopped Thillberg and Backman from participating at the tournament. Living goalscorers for Sweden in the 1950s: Kurt Hamrin: 14 Henry Thillberg: 9 Harry Bild: 3 Bertil Nilsson: 3 Jan Ekström: 2 Reino Börjesson: 2 DOB for those capped in the 50s and not in the top 10 list: Nils Johansson (14 Dec 1934), Bertil Nilsson (16 Jan 1936), Harry Bild (18 Dec 1936), Jan Ekström (11 Oct 1937) & Owe Ohlsson (19 Aug 1938) To bring back the main topic, Lennart Wing (7 Aug 1935) is very much alive. He played for Dundee Utd for a few years. Also, Sven Lindberg played for Petersborough Utd in 57-58. The goalie also played for the Welsh club Barry Town Utd plus supposedly one single game for Preston North End.

Robert Blake (b. 1933) has been a Youtuber for the past 3 years. The videos in the web series are titled "I ain't dead yet, so stay tuned". The most recent video is from 15 December and only has the following scrolling text: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7YhBChE-fY "Hi gang, This is the old cowboy himself talking to you. I've been preoccupied with being old. In other words, trips to the doctors, trips to the hospital and this and that. But God handed the ball back to me and I'm OK. And I give thanks that I'm OK in time to give you a little holiday treat." Then Blake plugs his autobiography and writes "if I was there, I'd give you a big kiss on the mouth, boy, girl, or anything in-between". Ummm, alrighty then... He closes out thes message with "That's it for now, unless the big boss calls me to his table for all the holidays to come". While we don't know the cause for his hospitalization, and he seems to be stable for now, you can never rule out recurrence of ailment at age 88. The video preceding this one was in August, so this issue must have gone on for a few months.

I just remembered that the first deathpool I ever entered was in December 2011, so that's another 10th anniversary! When I discovered the rules and scoring of the DDP, I never looked back to the other one. I won't start researching until after Christmas Eve. Too much of a risk mixing up the shortlist with my Christmas shopping list. Next thing you know, I'm left wondering which of my family and friends I thought would want a whale and how the hell I can get one. All the while Kodak Black sneaks in to Predictor's Predictions... I want to structure my DDP team in a way that if my gamble picks don't pan out, it'll be balanced out by 10-14 strong picks. So uniques will just be bonuses, not a main objective. May sound like an obvious thing, but I have yet to find a succesful balance. Competitions I plan on entering, like a "farewell tour": DDP, Hare's, Deathrace, Centenarians Deadpool, Death By Numbers (debut), DL Prediction Game (debut), Inverse Deadpool (debut) & Alt Obituaries Deadpool (debut, undecided). I have already entered Birthing Pool and Twisted DL. Using cast members from the 1996 film Twisted in the latter game means that I won't have to regularly replace dead entries, which is fine because I can't commit to a pool past submission deadline.