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We know that it is going to get worse before it gets better, there are two questions I have to ask. 1. What is the maximum number of daily deaths that will be recorded? 2. How long will their second wave last. Given a starting point of 3,800 the daily rate needs to be below this for 10 consecutive days (my definition) my answers 11,500 and 23rd November 2021. Numbers by the end of May.