Musings on Life Expectancy

[Sir Creep 7,012]

Me father drank himself to death at 46.

His father drank himself to death at 48.

[Notice a pattern?]

I sit here being the first male to surpass 50 in three generations.  
What, you may ask, do the zodiacal signs, the horoscopic fates, the astrological portents, the omens, the genethliac prognostications, the mantalogical harbingers, the vaticinal utterances, the fatidical premonitory uttering of the mantalogical omens - what do the bleeding stars in the paper predict, forecast, prophesy, foretell, prognosticate, forebode, bode, augur, spell, foretoken, presage, portend, foreshow, foreshadow, forerun, herald, point to, betoken, indicate about the future of Sir Creep?

 

Me father’s father’s father fell and broke his hip at 88 while putting his trousers on.
SC

[msc 17,759]

3 hours ago, Sir Creep said:

 what do the bleeding stars in the paper predict, forecast, prophesy, foretell, prognosticate, forebode, bode, augur, spell, foretoken, presage, portend, foreshow, foreshadow, forerun, herald, point to, betoken, indicate about the future of Sir Creep?

 

Me father’s father’s father fell and broke his hip at 88 while putting his trousers on.
SC

 

When old, stick to shorts.

[paddyfool 379]

Small query: going back to the original post, what do people think of splitting the world's countries into a tier-based league table based on life expectancy? In particular, do punters from countries below the top tier (eg the USA in tier 2, or Indonesia in tier 3) think this is fair?

 

Btw, you can also get a good visual representation of where different countries sit from this map: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?tab=map

[paddyfool 379]

Some more musings on the topic of how COVID will likely affect the tiers of different countries:

 

The harder hit countries in Tier 1 and Tier 2 are likely to drop in life expectancy by something of the order of 1 to 4 years for their 2020 figure, based on some back of an envelope calculations that would really bore you. This means that quite a few countries in Tier 1 will likely drop to Tier 2, among them the UK, Belgium, Costa Rica and Chile, maybe also Italy, France and Spain. And quite a few Tier 2 countries will likely drop to Tier 3, among them Mexico, Brazil, and Peru. Probably not the USA though, unless things go significantly worse the rest of this year even than they have already.

 

In countries in Tier 3 and below it shouldn't have that much of an effect, however, primarily since the death rate is relatively low among the under 70s. 

[paddyfool 379]

On 25/10/2020 at 10:56, paddyfool said:

Some more musings on the topic of how COVID will likely affect the tiers of different countries:

 

The harder hit countries in Tier 1 and Tier 2 are likely to drop in life expectancy by something of the order of 1 to 4 years for their 2020 figure, based on some back of an envelope calculations that would really bore you. This means that quite a few countries in Tier 1 will likely drop to Tier 2, among them the UK, Belgium, Costa Rica and Chile, maybe also Italy, France and Spain. And quite a few Tier 2 countries will likely drop to Tier 3, among them Mexico, Brazil, and Peru. Probably not the USA though, unless things go significantly worse the rest of this year even than they have already.

 

In countries in Tier 3 and below it shouldn't have that much of an effect, however, primarily since the death rate is relatively low among the under 70s. 

 

Someone else has done some rather more detailed analysis on the impact on UK life expectancy of COVID so far: based on excess mortality up to the end of week 47 (November 20th), "Life expectancy at birth dropped 0.9 and 1.2 years for females and males relative to the 2019 levels, respectively."   Presumably the drop in life expectancy will be a bit larger by end of year, but overall, if a drop in the region of 1 to 1.5 years in life expectancy is typical among countries in a similar position to the UK, not very many countries will drop a tier.

[Bentrovato 995]

So long and thanks for all the .........  Life expectancy is down but what does this mean? - BBC News