Advent Avalanche 2020

[Joey Russ 7,118]

So I wake up seeing a ton of spots already filled up, and expect to have announced my pick by now, but behold, one of you is now taking an eternity to announce their pick. So come on, who’s holding back?  

[Joey Russ 7,118]

Here’s who I got so far FYI: 

1. Sean - Dai Davies

2. The Daredevil - Gerd Muller

3. Sir Creep - Floyd Little 

4. gcreptile - Hubert Auriol

5. Spade_Cooley - Zafarullah Khan Jamali

6. drol - Saleh Ajery

7. The Old Crem - James Whale 

8. theoldlady - Larry King 

9. CaptainChorizo - Litsa Menounous 

10. Perhaps - Tommy Lasorda 

11. msc - Divya Bhatnagar

12. Toast - Mairead Philpott

13. Bibliogryphon - Rush Limbaugh 

14. Banana - Rob Orkies

15. chilean way - Leon Spinks 

16. The Quim Reaper - Yoko Ono

17. The Mad Hatter - Valery Giscard d’Estaing 

18. HDS - Susan Bayh

19. YoungWillz - Tom Smith

20. Grim Up North - Nick Hitchon

21. Book - Ged Stokes

22. Death Impends - Renee Simonot 

23. En Passant - Prince Philip

[ThereWillBeDeaths7 593]

I'll take Leslie Phillips

[Joey Russ 7,118]

And that's 7 hours to make sure none of the names picked end up dying before the starting line. Since 24 spots have now been filled it is my job to take a name for myself. This time, no one seems better than my own DDP unique pick Sylvain Sylvain so that is who I'll take. Anyways, thanks everyone for playing and good luck everyone.  

[drol 10,027]

With all picks taken, here is a quick analysis before it's too late. Most likely to win:

 

1)Zafarullah Khan Jamali. On life support after heart attack, also left weak by COVID. Was prematurely announced dead, seems the most obvious winner.

2)Floyd Little. The pick everyone has to beat. Has been in hospice care for a week, could go any day.

3)Saleh Ajeery. In ICU with COVID-19 at 100 and with a plethora of health issues doesn't leave much to imagination. Still, no news in two days, likely stable for now.

4)Litsa Menounos: those tweets are worrying. Advanced glioblastoma, surely not long.

5)Divya Bhatnagar. Critical in ICU with COVID. Still, very young and should make it (but I won't be sure)

6)Rob Orkies. The less famous of them all, a common person with cancer and COVID-19. When, not if and will be very soon.

 

A bit less likely:

 

1)Hubert Auriol: yes, critical in ICU with COVID, but is relatively young and no news in a week. Most people of his age manage to recover. Watch out anyway.

2)Ged Stokes. He is overdue with advanced cancer. Could be the great surprise.

3)Larry King. Improving, makes him less likely.

4)Tommy Lasorda. Improving, makes him less likely.

 

Whale, Limbaugh, Smith could be winning picks too. The other will need lot of luck. Note that I got last MMDP prediction completely wrong, so expect Prince Philip to die tomorrow.

 

Obvious pick who was not picked: won't say it now, as it could still be used as a reserve pick.

[gcreptile 10,211]

2 people who, surprisingly to me weren't picked: Dovid Soloveitchik and Tabare Vazquez.

[Toast 14,793]

17 minutes ago, drol said:

With all picks taken, here is a quick analysis before it's too late. Most likely to win:

 

1)Zafarullah Khan Jamali. On life support after heart attack, also left weak by COVID. Was prematurely announced dead, seems the most obvious winner.

2)Floyd Little. The pick everyone has to beat. Has been in hospice care for a week, could go any day.

3)Saleh Ajeery. In ICU with COVID-19 at 100 and with a plethora of health issues doesn't leave much to imagination. Still, no news in two days, likely stable for now.

4)Litsa Menounos: those tweets are worrying. Advanced glioblastoma, surely not long.

5)Divya Bhatnagar. Critical in ICU with COVID. Still, very young and should make it (but I won't be sure)

6)Rob Orkies. The less famous of them all, a common person with cancer and COVID-19. When, not if and will be very soon.

 

A bit less likely:

 

1)Hubert Auriol: yes, critical in ICU with COVID, but is relatively young and no news in a week. Most people of his age manage to recover. Watch out anyway.

2)Ged Stokes. He is overdue with advanced cancer. Could be the great surprise.

3)Larry King. Improving, makes him less likely.

4)Tommy Lasorda. Improving, makes him less likely.

 

Whale, Limbaugh, Smith could be winning picks too. The other will need lot of luck. Note that I got last MMDP prediction completely wrong, so expect Prince Philip to die tomorrow.

 

Obvious pick who was not picked: won't say it now, as it could still be used as a reserve pick.

 

I have no idea who most of these people are. 

[Toast 14,793]

10 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

2 people who, surprisingly to me weren't picked: Dovid Soloveitchik and Tabare Vazquez.

 

Or them.  

[msc 17,710]

1 minute ago, Toast said:

 

Or them.

 

Vasquez was President of Uruguay and thus a bit too famous...

 

Says the guy who just googled "diagnosed with covid" in 5 seconds and took the first non-FFBI name. Glasshouses, stones, etc etc...

[gcreptile 10,211]

I think the fame standards are relatively high this year. Not a single high school football coach.

[Joey Russ 7,118]

Oh darn, forgot about Schooly McFootball for this. I should hang my head in shame...

[drol 10,027]

40 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

2 people who, surprisingly to me weren't picked: Dovid Soloveitchik and Tabare Vazquez.

You spoiled my reserve pick. Strange, a 99-year old who has been on life support for a month and has not improved after tracheostomy, which was the last viable medical option should have been picked for sure.

[Spade_Cooley 9,001]

Was batting Soloveitchik as a "guaranteed hit but low points" pick for the DDP but I've not got the best handle on the important of various Jewish religious leaders for QOs.

[TQR 12,033]

57 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

2 people who, surprisingly to me weren't picked: Dovid Soloveitchik and Tabare Vazquez.

Oh yes of course, how could I forget Dovid Solovetechetehcokckiioickoticklvetillkvnvyhch. Silly bastard me.

[gcreptile 10,211]

Hehe, well he already was a Deathrace pick for me. And drol and I mentioned his COVID infection on this forum just recently. After all, he is 99 years old.

[Sir Creep 7,011]

9 hours ago, drol said:

It's HIM.

Mine was a HER.  Mine was Lisa Menounos.  Someone has her aye?  Great pick.  Maria says ‘family needs prayers’, no better clue than that.

[CaptainChorizo 1,893]

5 minutes ago, Sir Creep said:

Mine was a HER.  Mine was Lisa Menounos.  Someone has her aye?  Great pick.  Maria says ‘family needs prayers’, no better clue than that.

 

Now watch us find out in the upcoming days the family member she needs prayers for is Uncle Nikolaos or Aunt Myra

[Joey Russ 7,118]

Right, the Masterlist is up and running now. Good luck everyone.  

[The Old Crem 3,164]

12 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

No, I’m not sure why Crem picked two names. Might need to right a rule specifically against something like that in future...

I picked 2 in case my first choice was taken in between a final check and posting.

[Joey Russ 7,118]

Well, we don't want something like what you did in the future, especially when it lead to the confusion to another poster thinking they too might need a second pick. For future reference, it's one name and one name only. Don't add a second name just in case. If a poster beats you to the name you intended to pick, tough luck. Make another post to for another name. It's really not that long. I shouldn't have to see any more posts naming multiple names in the same post in this game ever again, got it? 

[gcreptile 10,211]

No, not dead, but msc's pick is worsening:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/tv/hindi/yeh-rishta-kya-kehlata-hai-actor-divya-bhatnagar-put-on-a-ventilator-support-condition-worsens/videoshow/79504329.cms

[The Old Crem 3,164]

9 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

Well, we don't want something like what you did in the future, especially when it lead to the confusion to another poster thinking they too might need a second pick. For future reference, it's one name and one name only. Don't add a second name just in case. If a poster beats you to the name you intended to pick, tough luck. Make another post to for another name. It's really not that long. I shouldn't have to see any more posts naming multiple names in the same post in this game ever again, got it? 

It might be easier to have everything pm their pick and two reserves then.

 

And someone else did it before me but then edited it.

[TQR 12,033]

5 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

It might be easier to have everything pm their pick

Then people don’t know who’s got who.

 

It might just be easier to pick one name and shut the fuck up?

[The Old Crem 3,164]

41 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said:

Then people don’t know who’s got who.

 

It might just be easier to pick one name and shut the fuck up?

It just feels like clutter to then have to have more posts updating as someone posted 3 seconds before.

[En Passant 2,930]

1 hour ago, The Old Crem said:

It just feels like clutter to then have to have more posts updating as someone posted 3 seconds before.

 

On the face of it pm is a common method, but the difference here is the 12 hour application window and limited pool of likely candidates.

 

Everyone pm'ing  Joey means he'd have to sit there monitoring pm for 12 hours straight or walk back to a possible shitstorm of posts and nobody knowing whether their pick was valid or not until he replied. Possibly multiple times due to the likely picks for the period being from a particularly small pool of candidates. Then, are they there when he replies so they know they are in or have to resubmit? and is he there when they reply to that? And what happens if somebody else posts the same name during that exchange?.... and so on.

Everyone in this place might be considered something of a keyboard warrior,  but this has a chance of quickly becoming ridiculous.

 

Scan the previous posts, make your pick. Done. And nobody is in the dark or having to monitor pm for 12 hours.

The need for a reserve is massively reduced anyway since there is at most a few hours between opening for submissions and the start line (although Spade still managed to give that a stern test, heh).

 

TL:DR - A few crossed posts in a 12 hour period would be much less bother. The rules are clear enough that even I got it..