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Paul Bearer

Covid 19 ------- Third wave?

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Sorry floks, but someone had to do it..... (Copied and pasted as, for some reason, every time I post a link, it posts the original thread)
 
 

The UK’s national statistician said he has “no doubt” that there will be a further wave of Covid-19 infections in the autumn.

Professor Sir Ian Diamond, head of the Office for National Statistics (ONS), also said there is a lot of regional variation in terms of how many people have antibodies.

His comments come after England’s chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty said there were still risks to reopening society and the UK will experience another surge of cases at some point, potentially in late summer or through the autumn and winter.

Sir Ian said people need to understand how the data is moving forward and look at the impact of the “wonderful” vaccine rollout.“But having said that, we need also to recognise that this is a virus that isn’t going to go away,” he told The Andrew Marr Show on BBC One.

“And I have no doubt that in the autumn there will be a further wave of infections.”

Asked if it is too early to know how much of the fall in infections across the UK is down to the vaccine rollout, he said there are a number of moving parts such as vaccines and restrictions.

Sir Ian told the programme: “I mean I would say though that this has been an incredibly impressive vaccine rollout, and we’ve been looking at antibodies in the population, and we’ve been scaling up our survey in order to be able to take many more blood tests so that we can look at the impact.

“And what we’re seeing is quite remarkable increases in the level of antibodies in the over-80s, and increasingly in the over-70s. So I’m very, very confident that the vaccine rollout is really starting to provide some real protection.

“At the other side we see very relatively high levels amongst young people which just shows how much of young people have been affected by the virus.

“I’d finally just say on this that there is a lot of regional variation, so we find 30% of London have antibodies whereas only 16% in the South West, so we need to recognise that as well.”

During the week, Professor Whitty said he would “strongly advise” against any move to shorten the timetable for easing lockdown restrictions.

Speaking to the Commons Science and Technology Committee, Prof Whitty said the measures pencilled in for May 17, when indoor mixing of up to six people could be allowed, involved “significant risks”.

Modelling considered by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has suggested that even under the most optimistic set of assumptions, at least a further 30,000 Covid-19 deaths could occur.

Professor Whitty said: “What we are going to see is, as things are opening up, what all the modelling suggests is that at some point we will get a surge in virus.

“We hope it doesn’t happen soon, it might for example happen later in the summer if we open up gradually or because of the seasonal effect it might happen over the next autumn and winter.

“All the modelling suggests there is going to be a further surge and that will find the people who either have not been vaccinated or where the vaccine has not worked.

“Some of them will end up in hospital and sadly some of them will go on to die.”

Elsewhere, charities have written an open letter to encourage people with underlying health conditions to come forward for a coronavirus vaccine.

Cancer Research UK, Mencap and the Terrence Higgins Trust are among 18 signatories to the letter aimed at people in vaccine cohort six.

The group includes carers as well as people with a range of underlying health conditions that put them at greater risk from coronavirus.

They include chronic respiratory, heart, kidney and liver disease and neurological conditions, immunosuppression, asplenia, diabetes, morbid obesity and severe mental illness.

People with sickle cell disease, lupus and those on a GP learning disability register, as well as people who have vascular disease or have had a stroke are also included in group six.

More than 23.6 million people have received their first dose of a coronavirus vaccine in the UK, according to the latest Government figured

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1 minute ago, Dying Probably said:

Covid 9 sounds serious :lol:

Oops. 

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The Third Wave was an experimental social movement created by California high school history teacher Ron Jones in 1967 to explain how the German population could accept the actions of the Nazi regime during the Second World War. The Third Wave (experiment) - Wikipedia

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I thought we'd already had a third wave. 

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Just now, Toast said:

I thought we'd already had a third wave. 

 

Same. Thought we were on our way to wave 5 or 6.

 

I guess it depends. Some places are locking the entire nation down for the 4th (?) time - like Italy. While Brazil never really were done with the 1st wave (because their dictator is an asshole and because its Brazil). 

 

In Denmark, we're still discussing whether we had 2 or 3 waves already and when the 4th hits (some say Easter and some are saying september).

 

It's a mess.

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Watch out for those who take part in eat out to help out or go to festivals like Reading and Leeds.

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Honestly I think Covid is something that will never really go away completely but will probably be a lot like the flu for now on. IE we’d have to get vaccines every year for different strands of covid

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51 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

Honestly I think Covid is something that will never really go away completely but will probably be a lot like the flu for now on. IE we’d have to get vaccines every year for different strands of covid

 

Honestly?

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1 hour ago, Joey Russ said:

Honestly I think Covid is something that will never really go away completely but will probably be a lot like the flu for now on. IE we’d have to get vaccines every year for different strands of covid

I could handle that, I have been getting the flu jab for years so an added extra would be no problem.

 

With a bit of luck the next bew strain will start to kill off the toung folk and balance in the world will be restored.

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In Germany, we're starting our third wave right now. Last week, we were almost, almost at an acceptable level again (which we define as the national incidence of below 50). Now it's increasing.

 

Well, I've survived third-wave feminism, I will survive this one, too.

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45 minutes ago, torbrexbones said:

With a bit of luck the next bew strain will start to kill off the toung folk and balance in the world will be restored.


I, meanwhile, wish the miserable old bunts would tuck off.

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Maybe the 3rd wave can speed up the Death List of 2021!

It would be great to see all 50 candidates iced off in one complete year so that the next year can start a fresh list! 

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I have no idea why people in the UK seem to think everything will open up in June, there will be music festivals etc. and everything will be fine. Over here in Asia everyone realises things aren't going to change much for the rest of 2021. Numbers will go down, up, down again etc. But just look at how messed up things are all over Europe. The worst per capita death rate  for a decent-sized country in the world is actually Czech Republic.

Having said that it's better to have someone like Boris who can try and give people something to look forward to, even if it all has to be cancelled later, imagine if Theresa May was still in charge ..

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8 minutes ago, Youth in Asia said:

 something to look forward to, even if it all has to be cancelled later

 

Yep, this is my philosophy. 

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No way we're going for a summer again with no festivals, footy at the stadium or packed beaches. People are fed up and would rather watch grandma die at their doorstep if that means they can party like its 2019.

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The thing is though do we all want to live like this in perpetuity ? The furlough won't be paid forever ,what happens when that ends? I imagine this is why they're banning protests ( policing bill being pushed through) to stop the inevitable civil unrest. The longer things don't go back to normal , the more likely things will get very dark & uncomfortable in the UK.

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54 minutes ago, Genfærd said:

No way we're going for a summer again with no festivals, footy at the stadium or packed beaches. People are fed up and would rather watch grandma die at their doorstep if that means they can party like its 2019.

 

I'm long out of grandmas, so yeah.

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1 hour ago, the_engineer said:

The thing is though do we all want to live like this in perpetuity ? The furlough won't be paid forever ,what happens when that ends? I imagine this is why they're banning protests ( policing bill being pushed through) to stop the inevitable civil unrest. The longer things don't go back to normal , the more likely things will get very dark & uncomfortable in the UK.

 

Yeah, I agree. Things seem to be bubbling in discontent and there's no limit of potential sparks in the next while. Also we seem to have a government who think if they've been forgiven today they will always be forgiven, hence stuff like this protest stuff. (10 years for defacing a statue, more time than the average jail time for rape, arson and knife attacks FFS! Priorities eh? And at the same time, Boris's government have heavily cut court/judicial money, meaning more dangerous folk are likely to be out on bail for years awaiting trials as the money and time available for those has been heavily cut.)

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This thread is in German, but it seems to show that that far from the AZ vaccine causing concern about blood clots, more people have experienced them after having the Pfizer vaccine.

The numbers in any case are small and lower than what might be expected on average, so one has to wonder why there is so much worrymongering going on, and more importantly, why AstraZeneca is the only one targeted.

 

 

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While i'm all for women's rights and the right to protest. There are currently thousands of people in Parliament Square and now some may catch Covid because of it or spread it to other people. Especially those who are under 40 as that age group would not have been vaccinated yet.

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2 hours ago, Toast said:

This thread is in German, but it seems to show that that far from the AZ vaccine causing concern about blood clots, more people have experienced them after having the Pfizer vaccine.

The numbers in any case are small and lower than what might be expected on average, so one has to wonder why there is so much worrymongering going on, and more importantly, why AstraZeneca is the only one targeted.

 

 

 

 

And the critical point is 13 clots 1 death, keep taking the aspirin. There is a greater chance of being knocked over by a car and a much larger risk of dying from Covid they need to get a sense of perspective. 

 

This is scaremongering and a greater appreciation of the general risks in existence is required.

 

If I was being cynical it would just be another excuse for the poor vaccination performance in the EU. 

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1 hour ago, ladyfiona said:

While i'm all for women's rights and the right to protest. There are currently thousands of people in Parliament Square and now some may catch Covid because of it or spread it to other people. Especially those who are under 40 as that age group would not have been vaccinated yet.

Most of the protesters are middle class knob heads.

As the majority of covid deaths have been amongst the working classes, I'd not worry too much about them.

Let em die.

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3 hours ago, Charlotte's Controller said:

And the critical point is 13 clots 1 death, keep taking the aspirin. There is a greater chance of being knocked over by a car and a much larger risk of dying from Covid they need to get a sense of perspective.

This is scaremongering and a greater appreciation of the general risks in existence is required.

If I was being cynical it would just be another excuse for the poor vaccination performance in the EU. 

 

I'm even more cynical.  The Oxford AZ vaccine has been continually and deliberately trashed right left & centre.  I suspect there are vested interests behind this.

Could the fact that it's being made available on a non-profit basis have anything to do with it?  :unsure:  Surely not :rolleyes:

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Austria's numbers are also going up... presumably because in order to get certain services (like getting your hair cut) you have to have a 48 hour Covid test. More people are getting tested, so more cases are being caught.  But a further consequence is that the people who test negative are allegedly going out to party like it's 1999 and getting infected that way... at least they look good doing it! :blink:

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