Jump to content
Death Impends

Derby Dead Pool 2022

Recommended Posts

8 hours ago, Lafaucheuse said:

I will be interesting in joining in 2023 but I can't find the scoring rules on the site. What is the drop 40 section and the party pooper one ? are we allowed to do a french theme team for example and a main list ? will we score for both ?

Welcome!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We got the new entry forms already? I mean no-one can do a thing until we find out what's happening with Pele.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Youth in Asia said:

We got the new entry forms already? I mean no-one can do a thing until we find out what's happening with Pele.


You could send in your theme teams?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Youth in Asia said:

We got the new entry forms already? I mean no-one can do a thing until we find out what's happening with Pele.

That’s why subs exist, in case some of your name dies before the starting line

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Youth in Asia said:

We got the new entry forms already? I mean no-one can do a thing until we find out what's happening with Pele.

 

 

And Rolf, and Bob Barker - that's the fun of dead pooling, or summat

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

16' hits''now needed within 25 days  to match last year's total  and obviously 17 to beat it.

 

I am increasingly optimistic that it is going to happen. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hadn't been paying attention to the table recently, surprised to find myself only 7 points off my most successful DDP year (and in 5th place, also my best placing ever). Tall ask this late on to surpass either of these "personal records" but the sort of navel gazing stat our @Gooseberry Crumble loves! :D

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gone for a week, no score updates for a while.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 06/12/2022 at 19:22, Gooseberry Crumble said:

16' hits''now needed within 25 days  to match last year's total  and obviously 17 to beat it.

 

I am increasingly optimistic that it is going to happen. 

 

21 hours ago, msc said:

 

Reptile got to 260. Since then: Madoc, Johnson (Dambuster), Jet Black = 263?

 

16 needed for the record, 21 days.

 

21 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

Helen Slayton-Hughes even got a Mail obit so that's another one.

With Georgia Holt and Beryl Grey added to confirmed obits, the tally is getting closer.

 

All while @gcreptile is away!!! 

 

I remain astonished that Louise Tobin has nothing.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

 

 

With Georgia Holt and Beryl Grey added to confirmed obits, the tally is getting closer.

 

All while @gcreptile is away!!! 

 

I remain astonished that Louise Tobin has nothing.

 

13 to go, 20 days and not out of the question some of those weird LOTLers get a mention in End of Year Reviews. I mean, someone somewhere has to mention Sonny Caldinez!

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Alright, this post is probably 10 days overdue, but it was made possible due to a solid snow fall cancelling trains and a bout of insomnia!

 

While @Death Impends has already mentioned that DQSP is nearly certainly the winner, I would like to be the first to congratulate him on the win and a successful drive for five.

 

As of 12 December, with a 16 point lead, thanks to the recent hits of Phelan (14 November) and Reichert (1 December), the maths make it clear that his nearest contenders need two hits to make up the difference.  And those hits have to be a high point D40/Unique plus another pick.  It is not impossible, but unlikely.

 

For those who want to read more than the TL:DR synopsis above and check their unlikely paths to victory, read below.

 

Spoiler

Notation is player(rank) - DQSP(1)

 

First off, all top five have hit their jokers.  All picked Gary Burgess.

 

There are three hits and the respective points in limbo.  Dan Lacey, Ronnie Hellstrom and Antonio Russo all lack a QO.

 

An aspect of the DDP that has been mentioned by @Octopus of Odstock is the impact of the D40 on scoring.  No doubt that is a factor (more below).  Another aspect of the DDP is the fact that the total possible points of the teams varies a bit, but an overall average is ~200.  Winning teams often have potential points near this and win around ~150 points with 14-15 hits, an average of 10 points per hit.  I’ve long had a suspicion that the total possible points is a factor in winning, but I have not done the full analysis yet.

 

DQSP has dodged a lot of D40 hits (Weir, Phillips, JLL, Lansbury) over the past two months and come out ahead as the key ones are Field, Pele, Alagiah, Doherty, Whale, and Burrow. 

 

Field (9 pts) has been chosen by all in the top five.  Neutralized.

Pele (9 pts) by DQSP(1) and BSP(4) and Pan Breed (5).  By far the best to strengthen the lead and probably the most likely.

Alagiah (11 pts) is the threat long identified by DQSP and rightly so, as Smart Beta(2), TSotU(3) and BSP(4) all picked and would cover a lot of the difference.  All would still need another hit.

Doherty (12 pts) - one of three underestimated threats, only chosen by Smart Beta(2)

Whale (10 pts) - the second underestimated threat, only chosen by Smart Beta(2)  

Burrow (13 pts) - the third underestimated threat, only chosen by TSotU(3)

 

Paths of Victory

 

DQSP - currently winning, so any further hits only add to the lead.

 

Smart Beta (17 to win) - a hit with points 10 or greater, plus any other hit with the exception of Pressler; could still get a party pooper bonus with Starmer-Smith.

 

TSotU (18 to win) - Find the Dan Lacey QO!  That’s 8 points in limbo (and good enough for second place!), then a D40 hit.  Otherwise a D40 hit of Alagiah or Burrow plus any other hit, except for Pressler again.

 

BSP (25 to win) - Find the Ronnie Hellstrom QO!  Even with this, it is hard to see what could work, as Field, Pele, West, Alagiah are all counterfeit.  Even with Hellstrom, two other hits from Coucher, Lieber or Vialli are needed.

 

Pan Breed (31 to win) - And there are two QOs to find for Ronnie Hellstrom and Antonio Russo.  Field, Pele, Pressler are all counterfeit.  Hellstrom counterfeit too. Without the missing QOs and no counterfeit hits, the remaining picks of Bolland, McMichael and Zia cannot make up the difference with only 23 points.  

 

I accept that other players could win, but the chances are slim, especially as they would need over 31 points and not have any hit counterfeit as above.

 

Congrats DQSP!

 

 

As of 12 Dec   First Second Third Fourth Fifth
    DQSP Smart Beta TSotU BSP Pan Breed
  Hits 14 13 13 12 12
  Current Points 162 146 145 138 132
  Joker Gary Burgess Gary Burgess Gary Burgess Gary Burgess Gary Burgess
Age/Notes Picks          
80, pt drop Frank Field (D40) 9 9 9 9 9
82 Pele (D40) 9     9 9
83 Bill Steel 6        
83 Dick Vitale 6        
59 Don West 9     9  
60, pt drop Alyson Williams (U) 12        
67 George Alagiah (D40)   11 11 11  
51
Shannen Doherty (D40)
  12      
80, pt drop Larry Pressler   6 6   6
78, bday Xmas Nigel Starmer-Smith   7      
71 James Whale (D40)   10      
39 Zhang Zhan   10      
40 Rob Burrow (D40)     13    
71 Bobby Caldwell     7    
61 Dan Lacey     8    
36 Tammy Slaton     10    
41 Chris Coucher       10  
73 Ronnie Hellstrom       7 7
63 Charles M Lieber (U)       12  
58 Gianluca Vialli       9  
67 Rob Bolland         8
65 Steve McMichael         8
late 50s Antonio Russo         9
77 Khaleda Zia         7
  Total possible 213 211 209 214 195

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Who do you think is the most surprising List of the Missed? I would vote for Shinzo Abe. I realize his assassination came from out of the blue but he went from being on 6 lists in 2021 to 0 lists this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Captain Hemlock said:

Who do you think is the most surprising List of the Missed? I would vote for Shinzo Abe. I realize his assassination came from out of the blue but he went from being on 6 lists in 2021 to 0 lists this year.

 

I tend to assume every obit-lock 95+ year old finds their way onto the DDP these days, so I'd give it to Peter Brook or Virginia Patton.

 

Abe surely has to be the biggest drop in teams for a LotMer though.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/12/2022 at 16:02, Captain Hemlock said:

Who do you think is the most surprising List of the Missed? I would vote for Shinzo Abe. I realize his assassination came from out of the blue but he went from being on 6 lists in 2021 to 0 lists this year.

 

Might give it to Mihajlovic now, thought for sure he'd be the type on at least a couple of casuals even if he seemed OK in his cancer battle. But no, List of the Missed.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Death Impends said:

 

Might give it to Mihajlovic now, thought for sure he'd be the type on at least a couple of casuals even if he seemed OK in his cancer battle. But no, List of the Missed.

 

Me by PM the other week - you'd really love writing a Mihaljovic DDP obit. Talented but dodgy mad bastard.

DI to me - Actually, he wasn't even picked this year!

Me - WTF? Well hopefully he is next year.

 

My apologies to everyone's shortlists...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So when Sydney Samuelson is added, stuck on 269 hits with a fortnight or so to go. SPOTY is next week so we should mop up another 2 I'd say for sure.

 

Cold snap about to end, will the relatively milder weather save the body count from increasing?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

So the Iranian cleric they just added to Wikipedia's deaths of 2022 page, he's List of the Missed, picked last year by that cleric theme team:

https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1401/09/25/2822377/آیت-الله-روحانى-دار-فانی-را-وداع-گفت

Might’ve been better to let that name (and team) be forgotten 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×

Important Information

Your use of this forum is subject to our Terms of Use