Thoughts on 2023 Deathlist

[Steve 410]

In no particular order but my list of remaining potential hits this year adding to the 4 that already succumbed: Woodward, Harris, Kundera, Carter, Le Pen, Ackland, Rollins, Newhart, Lear, Barker, Tebbit, Delors, Starmer-Smith, Nolan, Gall, Baxter and Murray. This would give us 21 hits just eclipsing the current record of 20 hits back in 2020. 

[The Daredevil 1,077]

1 hour ago, Steve said:

In no particular order but my list of remaining potential hits this year adding to the 4 that already succumbed: Woodward, Harris, Kundera, Carter, Le Pen, Ackland, Rollins, Newhart, Lear, Barker, Tebbit, Delors, Starmer-Smith, Nolan, Gall, Baxter and Murray. This would give us 21 hits just eclipsing the current record of 20 hits back in 2020. 

I’d agree with the above except maybe Baxter, Rollins, Barker, Newhart, Lear, Tebbit, Delors, Gall and Murray. But I can see Bobby Charlton, Tony Bennett, Rosalynn Carter, Harry Belafonte and Cleo Laine going before 2023 is up, making it 17 (more realistic number). 

[wannamaker 1,066]

3 hours ago, Lafaucheuse said:

Except for Sakamoto, we only had nonagerians « could go now or in two years » deaths that far.

 

Pervez Musharraf?

[Lafaucheuse 3,648]

27 minutes ago, wannamaker said:

Pervez Musharraf?

Musharraf although not a nonagenarian could have died in a few years. Wasn’t anywhere near the top 10 survivors of the list. 

[drol 10,028]

5 hours ago, Lafaucheuse said:

Woodward, Kundera, Carter, Le Pen and Harris seems like death cert at this point. 
Charlton, Nolan, Ackland, Starmer-Smith, Taylor and Rollins could hang on for some months more but I think at least 3/6 out of them won’t see 2024. 
And on top of that, I think some old frail will be « surprise » hit. I have a feeling Barker won’t see 2024. Greenspan, Belafonte, Delors, Gall, Kennedy, Baxter, Laine, Newhart and Lear could surprise us all and I wouldn’t be too surprise if one (or even two) of them tops the five first-mentioned.  Except for Sakamoto, we only had nonagerians « could go now or in two years » deaths that far.

 

Faitfull and Nelson don’t seem in immediate danger. 
 

I’d say 16/50

Not to curb your enthusiasm but:

 

*Woodward: likely only bullshit from Radar Online as usual. Even if it is true, hospice care does not really mean anything for dementia sufferers. Not a dead cert by any mean.

*Kundera: has been dying for five years, why couldn't he hang on for another one? Actually he is not in a worse condition than last year.

*Carter: hospice care and how the fuck he is still alive. Now he is a dead cert.

*Le Pen: condition not serious, it doesn't seem to be his time yet.

*Harris: all fucking fake news. I don't believe a single word from some anonymous attention seeker.

 

Don't get me wrong, the list will achieve a good score and all these people are circling the drain, but they are not dead certs at all.

[Steve 410]

8 minutes ago, drol said:

Not to curb your enthusiasm but:

 

*Woodward: likely only bullshit from Radar Online as usual. Even if it is true, hospice care does not really mean anything for dementia sufferers. Not a dead cert by any mean.

*Kundera: has been dying for five years, why couldn't he hang on for another one? Actually he is not in a worse condition than last year.

*Carter: hospice care and how the fuck he is still alive. Now he is a dead cert.

*Le Pen: condition not serious, it doesn't seem to be his time yet.

*Harris: all fucking fake news. I don't believe a single word from some anonymous attention seeker.

 

Don't get me wrong, the list will achieve a good score and all these people are circling the drain, but they are not dead certs at all.

So drol let's hear some of your predictions on those who you think will be gonners this year?

[gcreptile 10,211]

It's a bit like one of the these scam machines... google tells me, the name is coin pusher... you just put in one coin after another, and the pile keeps on growing ever so slightly. Lots of build up, lots of time with nothing going on, but when it does, it'll be an avalanche.

[drol 10,028]

2 minutes ago, Steve said:

So drol let's hear some of your predictions on those who you think will be gonners this year?

Barker, Carter, Delors, Ackland, Le Pen, Skinner, maybe Kundera.

[Steve 410]

45 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

It's a bit like one of the these scam machines... google tells me, the name is coin pusher... you just put in one coin after another, and the pile keeps on growing ever so slightly. Lots of build up, lots of time with nothing going on, but when it does, it'll be an avalanche.

I totally agree gcreptile that we will end up having an avalanche of deaths/hits.

[Steve 410]

I also strongly believe that beyond 2023 there will be an ever increasing avalanche of deaths due to all the low hanging fruit.

[Lafaucheuse 3,648]

1 hour ago, drol said:

Barker, Carter, Delors, Ackland, Le Pen, Skinner, maybe Kundera.

Woodward as to be one. I know this article can be bullshit but even if it is. She’s 93 with end stage alzheimer. She has to go sometimes and I do think this is her time.

[Superstar 267]

I noticed that the first 4 hits this year are all from different countries (Pakistan, USA, Japan, UK). Judging by this trend, I'll guess the next hit will be Le Pen, Delors, Kundera, Marcos, or Khameini.

[Lafaucheuse 3,648]

I know it's useless but if nothing were to change and we'd fastforward to 31 december 2023, here is how the perfect 2024 list would look like : 

 

1. Jimmy Carter

2. Joanne Woodward

3. Silvio Berlusconi 

4. Jean Marie Le Pen

5. Henry Kissinger

6. Barry Humphries Roberta Flack

7. James Whale

8. Joss Ackland

9. Linda Nolan

10. Milan Kundera

11. Rolf Harris

12. Bobby Charlton 

13. Rosalynn Carter 

14. Frank Field

15. Douglas Hurd

16. Patricia Routledge 

17. Bob Barker

18. Georges Alagiah

19. Nigel Starmer Smith

20. Jacques Delors

21. Ethel Kennedy

22. Dianne Feinstein 

23. Sonny Rollins 

24. Stanley Baxter 

25. Ted Kaczynski 

26. Cleo Laine

27. Imelda Marcos

28. Raul Castro 

29. Norman Lear

30. Dick Van Dyke 

31. Sandy Gall 

32. Buzz Aldrin

33. Mel Brooks

34. Hary Belafonte

35. Tony Bennett 

36. Willie Nelson 

37. Bruce Willis

38. Sandra Day O'Connor

39. Sophia Loren 

40. Rupert Murdoch 

41. Brigitte Bardot

42. Michael Caine

43. Pope Francis

44. Shirley McLaine

45. Noam Chomsky 

46. Petula Clark

47. David Attenborough

48. Louis Farrakhan

49. Liza Minelli 

50. Ozzy Osbourne

 

I expect half of this list to be dead by 1st of january 2025.

 

well : Barry Humphries was too fast. Roberta Flack instead then.

 

[Bibliogryphon 8,615]

New graph updated for Harry Belafonte

 

[polar duck 470]

On 15/04/2023 at 16:18, msc said:

Willie Nelson frail after being gravely ill last year.

 

Nelson appears to be getting his act together.

[Bibliogryphon 8,615]

Graph updated for Rolf Harris (using 10th May as death date)

 

[Sly Ronnie 592]

6 hits in 5 months is a decent clip I reckon. Would expect about 14-15 by the years close.

[Joltin Joe 126]

The date is December 13, 2023. Dick Van Dyke trips over some furniture and breaks his neck, dying at his 98th birthday celebration. He becomes the 49th Deathlist hit of the year, yet Jimmy Carter remains favored over "that's all!" on the "50th death of 2023" poll.

[Deathtreat23 182]

Surely Jimmy Carter is not as immortal as Zsa Zsa Gabor-even she fell victim to the curse of 2016 in the end even if it did take nearly the whole year.

[The Daredevil 1,077]

Still only one death in the top half of the list.

[YoungWillz 18,948]

11 minutes ago, The Daredevil said:

Still only one death in the top half of the list.

Interesting.

 

While I've had many crossover hits on my Deathlist Prediction Team and am currently tied with the Committee on hits, all my hits there are in the top half of my counter-list.

 

So while I've scored badly in the Prediction competition, my team is a better predictor.

 

I'll probably live to regret this post by year's end, mind.

[Bibliogryphon 8,615]

I am going to say Tina was a good call by the committee. Not on the Crowdsourced, not on the Drop 40

 

Good judgement or extremely lucky

[Bibliogryphon 8,615]

Updated Graph for Tina Turner

 

An hit within the next four weeks will put 2023 as the third best performing year at this stage behind 2008 and 2020

 

However 2021 has a 140 day gap between 7th & 8th hits

[Lafaucheuse 3,648]

16 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

I am going to say Tina was a good call by the committee. Not on the Crowdsourced, not on the Drop 40

 

Good judgement or extremely lucky

Agree. An interesting pick indeed, only two appearances and a drop, that’s a great job. If she had died while not being on the list, I wouldn’t have considered her a miss which, on the contrary reasoning means she was a great pick. 

[Evil Grimace 307]

3 hours ago, Lafaucheuse said:

Agree. An interesting pick indeed, only two appearances and a drop, that’s a great job. If she had died while not being on the list, I wouldn’t have considered her a miss which, on the contrary reasoning means she was a great pick. 

 

3 hours ago, Bibliogryphon said:

I am going to say Tina was a good call by the committee. Not on the Crowdsourced, not on the Drop 40

 

Good judgement or extremely lucky

 

I'd say the Committee have excellent judgement and/or extremely lucky - they've done this for three picks this year so far.

 

Musharraf - 2004, 2020, 2023

Lawson - 2012, 2023 (impressive!)

Turner - 2019, 2023

 

If that pattern holds then,

Nolan - 2018, 2021, 2023(?)

Marcos - 2020, 2021, 2023(?)

Khamenei - 2011, 2021, 2023(?)

 

They've managed it before too,

Jerry Lee Lewis 2022, last picked 1993 (!!!!)

John Edrich 2020, last picked 2011, 2010

Charles Aznavour 2018, last 2014, 1990

 

And if you are thinking ahead to 2024...

Jake 'The Snake' Roberts, last picked in 2015.