General Election 2024?

[msc 18,438]

8 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

That is the line that is used to suppress turnout. The media often use Vox Pop to push this line. I actually hate Vox Pop on really significant issues because you do not know how they selected which ones to use and how many people they had to speak to to get them to say what they wanted to broadcast

 

Did you see that vox pox during the Hartlepool by-election, of the voter who voted Tory to "punish the Labour government doing nothing for Hartlepool the past decade". Sums them up for me.

 

1 minute ago, YoungWillz said:

I was rather hoping for Ed Davey to arrive at his manifesto launch by jumping off a trampoline and doing a forward roll on a crash mat.

 

But fear not, he's off to ride a roller coaster this afternoon!

 

His policies sound most in touch with the public. If he's Leader of the Opposition (as some polls predict) PMQs could be fun.

 

He's having the time of his life. Goofy stunts, heartfelt interviews about caring for his disabled son, might have the best Lib Dem results since Ashdown and Kennedy. 

[TQR 14,386]

13 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

That is the line that is used to suppress turnout

 

As the manifestos are published everyone should be encouraged to look at vote for policies or some other comparative forum to see what aligns with their values

 

However if the answers come back as Conservative or Reform then you should probably check your values

 

I have no time for Keir Starmer he is weak light blue turncoat who has nothing to say on the really big issues (Brexit and Climate) but I think a Labour Government will not be so out of touch and will try to govern for a larger percentage of the population than this lot who only seem interested in the 1%

 

Crem knows that's the line used to suppress turnout. That's why he uses it all the time.

 

I've warmed to Starmer in recent times. I see his reasons for outwardly exercising caution. As for Brexit, his silence on the matter has wound me up too, especially given that he knows full well how much of an unmitigated disaster it has been, but there has to come a point soon where he'll publicly accept that. I'm hopeful we'll see a change in him during his first term.

 

I'm really, seriously praying (not literally) for a Lib Dem official opposition. This is bound to kick Starmer's Labour into touch much quicker.

[The Old Crem 3,582]

2 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Did you see that vox pox during the Hartlepool by-election, of the voter who voted Tory to "punish the Labour government doing nothing for Hartlepool the past decade". Sums them up for me.

 

 

He's having the time of his life. Goofy stunts, heartfelt interviews about caring for his disabled son, might have the best Lib Dem results since Ashdown and Kennedy. 

If the Tories really collapse he could beat the 62 seats Kennedy got in 2005. 

[The Old Crem 3,582]

Also Voter ID is bound to knock 0.5-1% off with people without ID forgetting to apply for the free one in time and people arriving at the polling station haven forgotten to bring their ID and not then coming back when reminded they need to have it. 

[msc 18,438]

Speaking of voter id all of my id doesn't qualify to vote in person. However I have managed to convince them to give me a postal vote (Id checks slightly more sensible there). There's still a week left to get a postal vote registered for anyone else 

 

Tories not getting rid of this grumpy bastard's vote that easily.

[The Old Crem 3,582]

2 minutes ago, msc said:

Speaking of voter id all of my id doesn't qualify to vote in person. However I have managed to convince them to give me a postal vote (Id checks slightly more sensible there). There's still a week left to get a postal vote registered for anyone else 

 

Tories not getting rid of this grumpy bastard's vote that easily.

You could have applied for the free election ID. 
 

 

Also expired ID is also valid. 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

 

[TQR 14,386]

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

 

[maryportfuncity 10,645]

22 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

 

 

 

Kellner had an interesting piece in the Sunday Times yesterday discussing the more complex voting patterns these days and how pollsters need to be more agile in tracking them. Be fair to say, it's clearly vexing a lot of experts this time around because the major curve balls are the impact of Reform (maybe one seat if they're lucky in Clacton but biggest impact by a mile on Tory votes in England) and tactical voting (people who previously thought themselves powerless now mobbing up with anti-Tory votes). Lively thread hereabouts, eh, which is one sign of this being tastier than any previous election during the life of the Deathlist.

[Brad252 807]

And we're off!

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmmrwexv4ko

 

"Reform candidate said UK should have been neutral against Hitler"

[maryportfuncity 10,645]

5 minutes ago, Brad252 said:

And we're off!

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmmrwexv4ko

 

"Reform candidate said UK should have been neutral against Hitler"

 

So, is that more or less disrespectful to the D-Day veterans than Sunak snubbing them at the international event?

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

10 minutes ago, Brad252 said:

And we're off!

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmmrwexv4ko

 

"Reform candidate said UK should have been neutral against Hitler"

Hot on the heels of Führage and Anderson's Dogwhistles/Foghorns about Sunak and D-Day. 

 

 

Have to say in a way I admire the fact that Bravermann doesn't think Führage at al won't turn on her eventually

 

[TQR 14,386]

 

Interesting stat: the major party to release their manifesto first has gone on to lose every time since 1997.

[The Old Crem 3,582]

1 hour ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

 

 

[Bibliogryphon 9,571]

Looking at the declaration times in 2019 the early results tend to be the Labour ones

 

Blyth Valley declared third (approx 11.30) in 2019 and is a sub 1000 Conservative majority

 

The next Conservative seat that declared in 2019 was North Swindon (@12.30) which has a 16000+ majority so this should be the first indication of how the Tories are really doing

 

First really big one was Broxbourne where Charles Walker (standing down) is sitting on nearly 20,000

 

At 1.44am (#25) we had Mark Francois sitting on a 33000 majority

 

Of course times will vary on the actual day depending on turnout and the size of the majority

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

 

 

 

Alexa order more popcorn

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

3 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

 

 

 

Alexa order more popcorn

 

Tim Shipman said this yesterday in The Times. Thursday night the interview was the thing they were worried about, not the D-Day optics. Pushed hard on wealth, privilege and tax and, by the sounds of it, didn't respond in a very voter-friendly way. 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

Get the feeling the Streisand effect may now become the Sunak effect 

[TQR 14,386]

Leader of the Opposition Ed Davey gets serious today as his party's manifesto is released.

 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

2 hours ago, Brad252 said:

And we're off!

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmmrwexv4ko

 

"Reform candidate said UK should have been neutral against Hitler"

 

What really stands out here is that Reform aren't disavowing him as a candidate. According to them he's only espousing "inconvenient truths" and his comments about women being scroungers was clearly "tongue in cheek". 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

5 hours ago, TQR said:

 

But Emily Thornberry Emily Thornberry Emily Thornberry Emily Thornberry.

 

Oh, and he's just blocked Basildon on Twitter.

 

 

[Philheybrookbay1 247]

Spent the day working out in the South Hams - and in the old Totnes seat, now South Devon. It's a Tory heartland by history. 

 

Literally every village, corner is plastered with the Lib Dem diamond posters, stakes. I saw 1 Tory banner in Totnes (which is nominally Green by cllr now) but the change is very clear and very yellow! 

 

[The Old Crem 3,582]

1 hour ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Looking at the declaration times in 2019 the early results tend to be the Labour ones

 

Blyth Valley declared third (approx 11.30) in 2019 and is a sub 1000 Conservative majority

 

The next Conservative seat that declared in 2019 was North Swindon (@12.30) which has a 16000+ majority so this should be the first indication of how the Tories are really doing

 

First really big one was Broxbourne where Charles Walker (standing down) is sitting on nearly 20,000

 

At 1.44am (#25) we had Mark Francois sitting on a 33000 majority

 

Of course times will vary on the actual day depending on turnout and the size of the majority

Blyth Valley has gone now. Ian Levy the winning Tory is running in the new notionally Labour seat of Cramlington and Killingworth which I expect will count quickly and on current polls should be a Labour hold for their candidate Emma Foody. Blyth town itself is now in the seat of Blyth and Ashington where Ian Lavery who held the now abolished Wansbeck for Labour by under 1k votes is running against Maureen Levy (Ian’s wife). Should be a fairly comfortable Labour hold this time. 
 

You Gov MRP has for these seats 

Cramlington and Killingworth -  Lab 54% - Tory 19% - Reform 14%
Blyth and Ashington - Lab 64% - Reform 15% - Tory 14%

Swindon North - Lab 43% - Tory 33% - Reform 12%

Broxbourne - Tory 37% - Lab 36% - Reform 15%

Rayleigh and Wickford - Tory 41% - Labour 28%- Reform 16%

 

 

 

 

 

[Bibliogryphon 9,571]

2 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

Blyth Valley has gone now. Ian Levy the winning Tory is running in the new notionally Labour seat of Cramlington and Killingworth which I expect will count quickly and on current polls should be a Labour hold for their candidate Emma Foody. Blyth town itself is now in the seat of Blyth and Ashington where Ian Lavery who held the now abolished Wansbeck for Labour by under 1k votes is running against Maureen Levy (Ian’s wife). Should be a fairly comfortable Labour hold this time. 
 

You Gov MRP has for these seats 

Cramlington and Killingworth -  Lab 54% - Tory 19% - Reform 14%
Blyth and Ashington - Lab 64% - Reform 15% - Tory 14%

Swindon North - Lab 43% - Tory 33% - Reform 12%

Broxbourne - Tory 37% - Lab 36% - Reform 15%

Rayleigh and Wickford - Tory 41% - Labour 28%- Reform 16%

 

 

 

 

 

 

So both Swindon and Broxbourne will give a good indication on how good/bad the night will be for the Tories - That Conservative/Reform split could be the difference in winning or losing the seat