Guess the date of the next UK General Election Sweepstake!

[Sly Ronnie 878]

OK. I've been doing some number and date crunching and seeing what Sunak's options are for calling a General election and when the starting gun will go..

 

As of week beginning 8th April 2024, if the PM was to announce a GE then it would take place on 23rd May. Curiously one of the statutes maintained from the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 was the retention of the 25 working days until Polling Day. This was increased from 18 (used to be 17 before that) up to the 2010 GE. Gordon Brown announced the election on 6th April, Parliament was dissolved on 12th April and the election took place 30 days after the announcement - a gap of time that will not be repeated I'd imagine for some time to come.

When Parliament is in session, then time is given for any legislation that could be passed to go through the house, any loose ends to be tied up and for any departing MPs to have their final speech or whatever before dissolution (Parliament is more often than not prorogued (put in stasis basically) a few days before actual dissolution.

With that in mind, I would say there would be approximately 6 weeks from announcement until the election give or take a day or two. There could be an exception when Parliament is in recess (I'll get to that bit).

So here is the timetable to keep an eye on (up until Summer Recess):

 

W/B 15/04/24 ----- 30/05/24

W/B 22/04/24 ----- 06/06/24 (D-Day, as I've mentioned before, could be an awkward date that one)

W/B 29/04/24 ----- 13/06/24 (week of the Local Elections)

W/B 06/05/24 ----- 20/06/24 (brief recess - May holiday)

W/B 13/05/24 ----- 27/06/24

 

Anything after this and we into summer holiday time. There hasn't been a July election since 1945 (July 5th). 

Parliament's summer recess begins on 24th July, lasting until 1st September. A recess may also cool down any attempts by his party to unseat him.

 

Now, if there is any opportunity for Sunak to perhaps catching the opposition on the hop, it might be here. He could conceivably call an election say in the middle of August, and as Parliament wouldn't need to be recalled, he could get away with a swift announcement-cum-dissolution with a gap of barely 5 weeks, so he could go on holiday, come back and announce sometime in the week beginning 12th August for an election to be held on 19th September.

Admittedly there has never been an election held in September since the single day election was introduced in 1918. However there is much to be said for a September poll: The weather is often usually good and other countries (such as Germany) regularly hold elections in this month.

 

So 19th/26th September are viable options. As would 3rd/10th October. Any further down the line and then the party conferences come into view. Liberal Democrats hold theirs on 14th September, Labour on 22nd, Tories 29th. If there are to be scrapped in favour of a poll (covering 17th/24th October) then he'll have to head for the Palace in the first week or so of September. If Sunak waits until just after the Tory conference he could be storing himself for trouble, as I'll get down to in a bit...

 

Let's discuss a couple of events that are covered in this time period (it's trivial but worth a mention). The first is the Euros, which take place from 14th June to 14th July. Now as mentioned earlier, July polls are no-no (likely) but there could still be one held while the tournament is taking place. Both England and Scotland are talking part with t he former very strongly favoured to win the thing. Now would the PM be tempted to ride on the back of football-based euphoria he may take heed of the lesson of Harold Wilson. Wilson also tried to catch Heath on the hop by declaring an earlier than expected election for June 18th 1970, while England were defending their World crown in Mexico. Of course it all ended in disaster for Sir Alf Ramsey & Harold as England were knocked out by West Germany four days before the poll. Now I'm nor saying it was "Der Bomber" that won it for Ted Heath but has been suggested that it did perhaps darken the mood in the run up to polling day (as did the trade figures released that week - different times, no one gives a monkeys about that sort of thing now).

Another event this summer is the Olympic Games (incidentally the 1964 games in Tokyo took place while the election was on) which take place from July 26th to August 11th. Again, I don't think this will have much of an impact on national morale, although Team GB have done rather well in recent games history...

 

So what is this trouble Sunak might get himself into? The final event which I will cover - the US Presidential Election to held on November 5th. If I was Sunak, I'd be very wary of holding a UK General Election anywhere near this date. If Biden wins, there may not be much difference to the British electorate. But if Trump wins, yes maybe the right might be galvanised but I think there will be the opposite effect: The left/centre-left/centrist/moderates may be enraged enough to wreak righteous revenge on the Tories by any means through the ballot boxes (tactical voting) and they would have to wait a mere 2 (or 9) days to do just that. Could get way with 21st November.

 

After that, the clock is ticking. The public weren't all that keen on a December poll in 2019 and as for January 23rd - a Christmas campaign? To probably mis-quote Lord Hailsham he have to be stark raving bonkers to call an election for that time.

 

In conclusion for gaming purposes I'm sticking with my initial 17th October prediction but considering the possibilities outlined herein, the late June/late September/early October are most realistic options.

 

 

 

 

 

[Sod's Law 445]

19 hours ago, Sly Ronnie said:

OK. I've been doing some number and date crunching and seeing what Sunak's options are for calling a General election and when the starting gun will go..

 

As of week beginning 8th April 2024, if the PM was to announce a GE then it would take place on 23rd May. Curiously one of the statutes maintained from the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 was the retention of the 25 working days until Polling Day. This was increased from 18 (used to be 17 before that) up to the 2010 GE. Gordon Brown announced the election on 6th April, Parliament was dissolved on 12th April and the election took place 30 days after the announcement - a gap of time that will not be repeated I'd imagine for some time to come.

When Parliament is in session, then time is given for any legislation that could be passed to go through the house, any loose ends to be tied up and for any departing MPs to have their final speech or whatever before dissolution (Parliament is more often than not prorogued (put in stasis basically) a few days before actual dissolution.

With that in mind, I would say there would be approximately 6 weeks from announcement until the election give or take a day or two. There could be an exception when Parliament is in recess (I'll get to that bit).

So here is the timetable to keep an eye on (up until Summer Recess):

 

W/B 15/04/24 ----- 30/05/24

W/B 22/04/24 ----- 06/06/24 (D-Day, as I've mentioned before, could be an awkward date that one)

W/B 29/04/24 ----- 13/06/24 (week of the Local Elections)

W/B 06/05/24 ----- 20/06/24 (brief recess - May holiday)

W/B 13/05/24 ----- 27/06/24

 

Anything after this and we into summer holiday time. There hasn't been a July election since 1945 (July 5th). 

Parliament's summer recess begins on 24th July, lasting until 1st September. A recess may also cool down any attempts by his party to unseat him.

 

Now, if there is any opportunity for Sunak to perhaps catching the opposition on the hop, it might be here. He could conceivably call an election say in the middle of August, and as Parliament wouldn't need to be recalled, he could get away with a swift announcement-cum-dissolution with a gap of barely 5 weeks, so he could go on holiday, come back and announce sometime in the week beginning 12th August for an election to be held on 19th September.

Admittedly there has never been an election held in September since the single day election was introduced in 1918. However there is much to be said for a September poll: The weather is often usually good and other countries (such as Germany) regularly hold elections in this month.

 

So 19th/26th September are viable options. As would 3rd/10th October. Any further down the line and then the party conferences come into view. Liberal Democrats hold theirs on 14th September, Labour on 22nd, Tories 29th. If there are to be scrapped in favour of a poll (covering 17th/24th October) then he'll have to head for the Palace in the first week or so of September. If Sunak waits until just after the Tory conference he could be storing himself for trouble, as I'll get down to in a bit...

 

Let's discuss a couple of events that are covered in this time period (it's trivial but worth a mention). The first is the Euros, which take place from 14th June to 14th July. Now as mentioned earlier, July polls are no-no (likely) but there could still be one held while the tournament is taking place. Both England and Scotland are talking part with t he former very strongly favoured to win the thing. Now would the PM be tempted to ride on the back of football-based euphoria he may take heed of the lesson of Harold Wilson. Wilson also tried to catch Heath on the hop by declaring an earlier than expected election for June 18th 1970, while England were defending their World crown in Mexico. Of course it all ended in disaster for Sir Alf Ramsey & Harold as England were knocked out by West Germany four days before the poll. Now I'm nor saying it was "Der Bomber" that won it for Ted Heath but has been suggested that it did perhaps darken the mood in the run up to polling day (as did the trade figures released that week - different times, no one gives a monkeys about that sort of thing now).

Another event this summer is the Olympic Games (incidentally the 1964 games in Tokyo took place while the election was on) which take place from July 26th to August 11th. Again, I don't think this will have much of an impact on national morale, although Team GB have done rather well in recent games history...

 

So what is this trouble Sunak might get himself into? The final event which I will cover - the US Presidential Election to held on November 5th. If I was Sunak, I'd be very wary of holding a UK General Election anywhere near this date. If Biden wins, there may not be much difference to the British electorate. But if Trump wins, yes maybe the right might be galvanised but I think there will be the opposite effect: The left/centre-left/centrist/moderates may be enraged enough to wreak righteous revenge on the Tories by any means through the ballot boxes (tactical voting) and they would have to wait a mere 2 (or 9) days to do just that. Could get way with 21st November.

 

After that, the clock is ticking. The public weren't all that keen on a December poll in 2019 and as for January 23rd - a Christmas campaign? To probably mis-quote Lord Hailsham he have to be stark raving bonkers to call an election for that time.

 

In conclusion for gaming purposes I'm sticking with my initial 17th October prediction but considering the possibilities outlined herein, the late June/late September/early October are most realistic options.

 

 

 

 

 

Of course, this does all hinge on Sunak's ability to think like a rational human being for five minutes, in a PM notorious for hiding under the desk when another whiff breaks out in his party and leaving every decision he makes until the very last moment before it becomes politically untenable to maintain his silence. Nonetheless, I'm pretty happy in my 26th September prediction. 

[En Passant 3,741]

36 minutes ago, Sod's Law said:

Of course, <snip> September prediction. 

 

Humble request, please please if you're quoting an enormous foregoing post, cut it down to size a bit? My eyes, my eyes!

 

[Sod's Law 445]

2 hours ago, En Passant said:

 

Humble request, please please if you're quoting an enormous foregoing post, cut it down to size a bit? My eyes, my eyes!

 

Sorry. I'm logging in during my lunch break and I'm kind of in a hurry. 

[Bibliogryphon 9,571]

Graham Brady has a book coming out on 7th November which promises to be a tell all memoir about his time a chairman of the 1922 committee.  He is standing down at the election and he think he will probably want to be safely beyond Westminster by then

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

2 hours ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Graham Brady has a book coming out on 7th November which promises to be a tell all memoir about his time a chairman of the 1922 committee.  He is standing down at the election and he think he will probably want to be safely beyond Westminster by then

 

Should be a big clue, one would think. Can you imagine the Tories' dirty laundry coming out just before the election? Should be done by then. But, then again, early November is usually a big time for book launches ahead of the Christmas rush, so it could just be pencilled in for then and, should the election not have happened, it will get pushed back.

[Father Brown 209]

July 4th being rumoured

 

https://www.itv.com/news/2024-04-12/could-there-be-a-general-election-in-july

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

12 minutes ago, Father Brown said:

July 4th being rumoured

 

https://www.itv.com/news/2024-04-12/could-there-be-a-general-election-in-july

 

[The Old Crem 3,582]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-13/sunak-resists-call-to-set-election-date-amid-leadership-threat
December 12th has been discussed.  But June/July still in play. Also pressure for him to name the date in advance. 

[Summer in Transylvania 2,173]

1 hour ago, The Old Crem said:

Also pressure for him to name the date in advance. 

It would be a bit silly (but this is Rishi we're talking about, so not entirely implausible) if he didn't. 

 

"Mr. Sunak, when is the election going to be?"

"Oh, it was last week, I'm just not announcing it yet."

[The Old Crem 3,582]

Rishi Sunak could call SUMMER general election if he avoids wipeout in May council votes

 

I mean she should have good sources - her partner is the Tory party chairman. 

[Philheybrookbay1 247]

Tories are going to be seriously wiped out in May local elections - cue blood and thunder and panic from back benchers to remove Rishi. He'll call a snap election I think to stop that and therefore 27th June seems most likely or at a push 20th June. 

 

 

[Toast 16,131]

They're dragging us into a war, which will be an excuse not to have an election.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

On 12/04/2024 at 09:38, Father Brown said:

July 4th being rumoured

 

https://www.itv.com/news/2024-04-12/could-there-be-a-general-election-in-july

“Let's get a list going:

…

4 Jul 24: Sir Creep”

 

 

[En Passant 3,741]

On 15/04/2024 at 12:56, Toast said:

They're dragging us into a war, which will be an excuse not to have an election.

 

Yeah, this shit again.

 

I'm far too uneducated regarding the finer details to form a proper, reasoned opinion about the rights and wrongs of the middle eastern conflict beyond the fact its basically a fight between two irreconcilable religions over essentially the same piece(s) of land for generations and that it's killed untold, mostly innocent, people on both sides in the process and shows little sign of ever being resolved. 

I do question why the hell we should get involved with it on one side or the other from half a world away.

 

Yet it does appear that for politicians with waning power war is a great booster - getting all that national pride to overcome your local squabbles about the price of energy or trains or a can of beans. Any war seems to do, not just WW1/WW2 but Falklands, Iran, Iraq etc...

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

4 hours ago, Toast said:

They're dragging us into a war, which will be an excuse not to have an election.

 

It'll never happen in a million years. Unless open war was declared on the UK before January (which I cannot see happening) then there has to be a general election. And even if we were at war, it would require an Act of Parliament to suspend the election for another year (which would need renewing every 12 months) and there is no way, unless in the direst of circumstances, that Parliament would agree to that. It needs 26 Tory MPs to vote with the opposition to defeat the government, and there's way more than that standing down in the next 6 months who would kibosh a delay, not to mention those rare creatures "Tories with a moral compass" who would see it as the shameless power grab it would be. It's not going to happen. Sooner or later, Sunak the Squatter will have to face the music and give us a say on his party's decade-and-a-half in power.

[Sly Ronnie 878]

One other future event to consider is the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting which is taking place in Samoa from October 21st to October 25th. The PM, whoever it will be, will be expected to attend. Would be awkward to do this during an election campaign.

[Sod's Law 445]

1 hour ago, Sly Ronnie said:

One other future event to consider is the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting which is taking place in Samoa from October 21st to October 25th. The PM, whoever it will be, will be expected to attend. Would be awkward to do this during an election campaign.

If Sunak is still somehow PM by then, it'll be an open secret among the other heads of government that he most likely won't be for much longer. Question is does he spare himself the humiliation of attending an international conference as a lame duck PM whose word will mean nothing in a short space of time, or relish one last shot of looking like a big boy on the world stage? 

[TQR 14,386]

I've seen speculation that Sunak's recent insistance that planes will be taking off to Rwanda by 15th July means he'll wait until at least then to call the GE. I disagree. I'm still optimistic about the chances of a GE being called shortly after the LEs.

 

The results of the LEs are going to be horrifying for the Tories. Penny Dreadful and Kemi Badenough and Honest Bob Jenprick and Suella Depraverman and Granty Twelvenames are all weighing up a leadership challenge after this, to which Sunak will bravely respond by calling a GE immediately. That would be timed so that the election is in early summer. 4th July, most probably.

 

If the election is called this soon, he can still just go hell for leather on the "Vote Tory and planes will definitely definitely be going to Rwanda next week, I promise" line. It'll fail, but Dr Death cares not a fuck; he can piss clean off to Cali with Mrs Death and little junior Deaths and enjoy their billion quid in silicon valley. We won't see him again. If he threatens his MPs with an election purely in an effort to stop a leadership contest, tbh I still think at least Braverman would go ahead and challenge him. I've heard her recently on LBC; she actually sounded quite gleeful at the prospect of a heavy, heavy GE loss; she knows her seat is one of the safest, and she knows this would clear a path for her to grab the Tory leadership and mold what's left of the party to her tastes while they're in opposition.

 

There are too many landmines for the Tories further down the road. Foreign leaders are already starting to ignore Sunak as they know he's a dead man walking, and that'll get worse and worse as the year goes on. They won't want to be about for the Hallet report, either. And if the Rwanda planes inevitably don't take off on 15th July and they still haven't called an election, that'll fuck goodbye the very last shred of credibility he has with that awful, heartless contigent who wants to see the scheme happen. Calling the election so it happens just before all this would frankly be damage limitation.

[Toast 16,131]

1 hour ago, Sod's Law said:

one last shot of looking like a big boy

 

Sunak looking like a big boy

[Sod's Law 445]

11 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

Sunak looking like a big boy

He brings his stool for the photoshoots, so I heard.

[TQR 14,386]

Big Boy Sunak refused to rule out a July election when asked while on the plane to Poland.

 

He said “All I’m going to say is the same thing I say every time…my working assumption is an election in the second half of the year.”

 

The middle day of the year is 2nd July. Still on for the 4th, then.

[The Old Crem 3,582]

4 minutes ago, TQR said:

Big Boy Sunak refused to rule out a July election when asked while on the plane to Poland.

 

He said “All I’m going to say is the same thing I say every time…my working assumption is an election in the second half of the year.”

 

The middle day of the year is 2nd July. Still on for the 4th, then.

Well I doubt they will do the 10th. That is the day of the second Euro 2024 semi which could in theory feature England (and even less likely Scotland)  - no way will they want an election clashing with that. At least the 4th July is an off day from the tournament. 

No matches on the 27th June either but England are playing on the 20th June. 

[Toast 16,131]

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

34 minutes ago, TQR said:

Big Boy Sunak refused to rule out a July election when asked while on the plane to Poland.

 

He said “All I’m going to say is the same thing I say every time…my working assumption is an election in the second half of the year.”

 

The middle day of the year is 2nd July. Still on for the 4th, then.

 

"Working assumption" - code for "unless the bastards try and knife me after the local elections."