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Guest iain

Damn, won't anyone die?

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Guest iain

is this the most unsuccessful starts to theyear theres ever been for deathlist?nearly 3 months in and only 2 dead so far.This is very poor

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As of 22 March:

1987 - 0

1989 - 1

1990 - 1

1991 - 0

1992 - 0 (1 by 23 March)

1993 - 3

1994 - 3

1995 - 1

1996 - 3

1997 - 1

1998 - 1

1999 - 4

2000 - 4

2001 - 5

2002 - 2

2003 - 3

2004 - 1

2005 - 2

 

9 out of 18 years have been worse than this one, 2002 was the same, the average for this time of year is 1.9 deaths.

 

So, no. :(

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Guest Guest

It's got to pick up sooner or later. I mean if all the stuff going around about Gerald Ford is true and Rehnquist, Liz Taylor, etc.

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Guest Banshees Scream

You would think 2001 would have been some year.....

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Guest Guest_Raven

Ok is the pope EVER gonna bite the big one I mean come on its in the news everyday is health is bad God just die already :(

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Guest IYG
Ok is the pope EVER gonna bite the big one I mean come on its in the news everyday is health is bad God just die already :(

Maybe if we don't choose him one year then he'll die.

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"The Pope Must Die!"

 

(eventually)

 

Of course, if the supervolcano under Yellowstone goes up, it'll wipe out most of North America. We won't be able to keep up then, but something tells me there'll be a bit of trouble with Internet connections. :(

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The real question is why is the Pope so desperate to avoid meeting Saint Peter...

 

Surely if anyone is a shoe-in for access through the Pearly Gates it must be the Pontiff, or is there a dark secret hidden that is forcing him to hold on so hard??

 

Do you think he suspects that Martin Luther was right after all?

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Do you think he suspects that Martin Luther was right after all?

Could you enlighten me? In a nutshell?

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Do you think he suspects that Martin Luther was right after all?

Could you enlighten me? In a nutshell?

Live on a Diet of Worms and I'm sure it'll become clear...

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Guest iain

the Pope has only days to live according to a vatican source tonight

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the Pope has only days to live according to a vatican source tonight

Do you have a link to that? I've not seen that claim anywhere else.

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Popes, Ex-PMs, royal weddings. I bet Blair will wish he never signposted this bloody election for 05/05/05!

I digress....

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is this the most unsuccessful starts to theyear theres ever been for deathlist?nearly 3 months in and only 2 dead so far.This is very poor

Hope your still popping in occasionally iain what with Callaghan being dead now you must be very happy.

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Amazingly, I guess we're on course for the most successful year ever now. You gotta watch out for those April downfalls.

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As of 23 April:

1987 - 0

1989 - 2

1990 - 2

1991 - 0

1992 - 2

1993 - 3

1994 - 5

1995 - 2

1996 - 3

1997 - 1

1998 - 3

1999 - 4

2000 - 5

2001 - 7

2002 - 6

2003 - 3

2004 - 3

2005 - 5

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I would think this year will be one of deathlists best years ever along with 2003 and 2004. There are 5 gone and its only april. I could see a near record breaking year if not the record. You can only wait and see. Time will surely tell..

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Guest Guest

I admit that things have now picked up somewhat.I apologise for my lack of faith in deathlist.

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Too late. Everyone thinks you're scum now.

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I would think this year will be one of deathlists best years ever along with 2003 and 2004. There are 5 gone and its only april. I could see a near record breaking year if not the record. You can only wait and see. Time will surely tell..

I created a spreadsheet today to estimate the total number of hits this year from the number of hits so far.

 

With John Mills gone, it estimates 17 hits this year. I'll have to check the maths, so take this with a grain of salt, but if this trend holds, 2005 will be a record year.

 

regards,

Hein

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I would think this year will be one of deathlists best years ever along with 2003 and 2004. There are 5 gone and its only april. I could see a near record breaking year if not the record. You can only wait and see. Time will surely tell..

I created a spreadsheet today to estimate the total number of hits this year from the number of hits so far.

 

With John Mills gone, it estimates 17 hits this year. I'll have to check the maths, so take this with a grain of salt, but if this trend holds, 2005 will be a record year.

 

regards,

Hein

With 5 already gone and with 8 more months left in '05, I'd say Deathlist is headed for a banner year.

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But look at 2001 - 7 deaths by this point and only 3 more the rest of the year - so there!

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plus, one shouldn't assume that just because 5 on the DL have gone in a bit less than 4 months that the rate will continue. There are now just 45 candidates left, not 50, and the odds get longer every time another name drops off the list. There was discussion last year about picking new people to replace each nominee who pops their clogs, but it was decided this was against the spirit of the list. I'll plump for 13 on the year

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There are now just 45 candidates left, not 50, and the odds get longer every time another name drops off the list.

My calculations take care of that. If there's interest, I can post the formula.

 

My model is valid, but statistically naive and very sensible to streaks of hits ans long droughts.

 

I'm working on calculating confidence intervals, which should improve the usability.

 

regards,

Hein

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