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38. Ruth Bader Ginsburg

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So her replacement is going to be a woman, not the best person for the job, a bit sexist or what?

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A woman who’s against women’s rights? This is gonna go down well. 

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On 08/01/2020 at 19:28, Nurse Rached said:

 Pancreatic cancer has a 5% success rate. I doubt that old bat is cancer free, she’s just buying for time. 
Her death will be this elections October surprise.

Nailed it, October surprise in September. 

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4 minutes ago, Nurse Rached said:

Nailed it, October surprise in September. 

 

Congrats on such an amazing prediction, Kenny. 

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On 18/09/2020 at 21:05, QuebecCityOliver said:

One thing to consider is that if Mark Kelly wins in Arizona, he should be seated on Nov. 30. This means the 3 dumbstkers (Romney, Collins and Murkowski) would be able to block a nomination. McConnell doesn't have much time.

 

On 18/09/2020 at 21:05, QuebecCityOliver said:

One thing to consider is that if Mark Kelly wins in Arizona, he should be seated on Nov. 30. This means the 3 dumbstkers (Romney, Collins and Murkowski) would be able to block a nomination. McConnell doesn't have much time.

Yes, but Doug Jone will lose Alabama and will be replaced first because Alabama doesn’t have mail in ballots so they will more than likely certify before Arizona. 

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6 minutes ago, Perhaps said:

 

Congrats on such an amazing prediction, Kenny. 

Thanks!

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10 hours ago, torbrexbones said:

So her replacement is going to be a woman, not the best person for the job, a bit sexist or what?

When Biden said he would choose a black woman and then did any issue with that or only when Trump derangement sets in?

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Happy Days!!! Couldn’t have come soon enough for a mass murder!! Hopefully The GOP can ram though her replacement before Nov 3 not that it will matter since Trump will win anyway. 

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41 minutes ago, Nurse Rached said:

 

Yes, but Doug Jone will lose Alabama and will be replaced first because Alabama doesn’t have mail in ballots so they will more than likely certify before Arizona. 

Albama is a regular election so Jones won't leave till Jan 3.

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59 minutes ago, Nurse Rached said:

Hopefully The GOP can ram though her replacement before Nov 3

 

https://www.mcconnell.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/pressreleases?ID=A3B740CE-F80C-4842-B656-11A1154B55D0

 

I'm not sure whether that's a tad hypocritical, my friend...

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1 hour ago, Nurse Rached said:

Happy Days!!! Couldn’t have come soon enough for a mass murder!! Hopefully The GOP can ram though her replacement before Nov 3 not that it will matter since Trump will win anyway. 


You’re a very balanced combination of moron and cunt.

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6 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said:


You’re a very balanced combination of moron and cunt.


That's almost a compliment as far as passing judgement goes with you, Quim. :lol:

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Here's my understanding of the equation. 44 days til the election. 53 Republican senators and 45 Democrats, plus 2 Independents who will vote with the Democrats. If Trump and McConnell can nomination a candidate, get them through committee and confirm them, they'll need 50 votes in the Senate, plus Pence breaking the tie, to get someone on the court. That allows for 3 Republican dissenters - Collins, Murkowski and Romney being the likely candidates - and they can still get it through. But they can't afford any other Republicans to come out against confirmation, and even then 44 days is very quick to get it all done (the average since 1975 is 67 days) and the Democrats will use every trick in the book to try and extend this.

 

Assuming it isn't done by election day, then here's where the fun starts. 35 seats up for grabs, Republicans defending 23, Democrats defending 12 (the 2 Independents are safe). Dems look set to gain Arizona and Colorado, plus good chances in Maine and North Carolina. They almost certainly lose Alabama, which gives them a further 3 seats, putting them on 48, plus 2 Independents. This means they would need to win in either Montana or Iowa (both very close races in traditionally republican states) to get over the top. The Republicans look like holding on everywhere, except Arizona and Colorado and Maine and Colorado are looking doubtful. They'll regain Alabama and if they can hold on to Montana and Iowa, that would give them exactly 50 seats. If it's a 50-50 tie, control would reside with whichever party wins the presidency.

 

But all this only happens in January, between November and January, it's still the old Senate. So there would be two months, post-election, to try and get it through in a lame duck session (assuming the Democrats win the presidency this would be hugely controversial). On the same terms as pre-election, it would require the 50 Republican senators from before all voting in favour, and the outgoing Pence breaking the tie to get the justice confirmed. It would also require the outgoing Republican senators in Colorado and North Carolina (in this scenario) to vote against the will of the people who voted them out of office (Collins in Maine has already said she isn't in favour, whether she wins or loses). The Arizona seat is interesting, as mentioned in this thread: it's a special election and the winner (likely Mark Kelly of the Democrats) can be sworn into office as soon as the result is ratified (probably late November). This would make the maths 52 Republicans, 46 Democrats plus 2 Independents and, combined with the 3 dissenting Republicans, would make the vote 49-51 to the Democrats, depriving Pence of his tiebreaker.

 

So, in short, Trump and McConnell have got 44 days to get this done before the election. If not, if Mark Kelly wins in Arizona that would likely stop the Republicans getting their pick through before January when the new Congress is sworn in, at which point it has a good chance of being 50-50 in the Senate and the power will reside with whoever wins the presidency. This has the potential to blow so many close races apart, particularly in the Senate.

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The way I see it, the Democrats currently are very likely to at least gain some senate seats for the next session. In fact, a lot of Republican held seats have potential to flip this in this election. So what seats exactly are competitive this time around? I’ll go around and name the likelihood of a seat flipping from most likely to least likely (at least those who even has a slight potential of flipping. 
 

Arizona: Martha McSally has run an abysmal campaign. Last time I checked she’s less popular than Kirsten Sinema, who’s a democrat. And with all that, Mark Kelly himself has run a solid campaign. I’d be surprised if this seat doesn’t flip. 
Colorado: The state is definitely becoming quite solid towards the Democrats (Hillary won it in 2016), and Cory Gardner is not really liked there. And you have a former governor who was quite popular. So why do I put this seat as less likely than Arizona? Basically what puts it down is that Hickenlooper did have to deal with an ethics investigation this year, which I think hurts him slightly. Still, this seat will mostly be a dem pick up.

North Carolina: After Arizona and Colorado, there aren’t any seats that seem like guarantees. However, the next closest seat has to be North Carolina. Thom Tillis is quite wishy washy, and Cal Cunningham is running a solid campaign. Besides that, Tillis only won his seat by about a percentage point in a Republican wave year. That puts Tillis in a certain amount of danger. Could Tillis hold on? I’d say yes, but I do think at this point Cunningham is the favorite

Maine: Despite it’s blue lean I don’t think Maine is a guaranteed pick up. You see, Susan Collins was a very popular incumbent before the whole Kavanaugh situation, and she won by massive percentage points in the past. She won’t win by that large of a margin now, but she could very well eke out a victory ala Joe Manchin. Sarah Gideon is not a bad opponent though, which means this race is still competitive, and Gideon certainly could win 

Iowa: I think Iowa is the most likely tipping point state of the dems win the senate race outright. This race is definitely a toss up. Joni Ernst is not really well liked as an incumbent, and Theresa Greenfield has done a decent job fundraising. Polling shows Greenfield ahead as well. The thing is, most people expect Iowa to vote for Trump in the presidential election, so the is on whether Greenfield would have enough Trump voters to put her on top. It’s certainly plausible. I think it’s too early to really know who’ll win. 
Montana: This race is interesting. You have Steve Bullock who is still a quite popular governor running up against Steve Daines who, unlike many of the other senate candidates mentioned, is still quite popular. But Montana was also one of the few states to re elect a red state democrat, so it’s certainly plausible that Montana gets picked up. However, I do think the advantage goes to Daines at this point. 
After Montana, there’s a steep drop off in chances of picking up seats from other Republicans. However, if there were seats that the dems could pick up, it’d go like this

South Carolina: If you told me that South Carolina would be competitive last year, I would be laughing my ass off. However, there’s some polling that indicates the race is much tighter than it should be. Jamie Harrison is also running a good campaign, and good candidates does help your chances of winning that seat. Still, I expect Lindsey Graham will win the seat, but it definitely could be closer than expected.

Georgia (regular): Tbh, I’m not really confident that this senate race is as competitive as people say, but the margins will probably be decently close. I don’t think Georgia’s quite there into being a true swing state, but hey, I’ve been surprised before. 
Kansas: It’s really shocking that Kansas is being seen as potentially competitive. I thought once Kobach lost the primary the chance of this race being competitive would dwindle, but there are still polls that show the race is within a couple percentage points. Given the red lean of Kansas I still expect Roger Marshall to win, but I think there’s a small chance of an upset. 
Alaska: Alaska is probably the most under the radar of all the races I’m mentioning, but Al Gross is running a pretty solid campaign. Also Dan Sullivan only won by about 2 percentage points last time. I still think the Republican lean will get Sullivan the win, but is the upset potential there. I’d say it’s possible

Georgia (special): it’s weird to see a somewhat swing state being below some reliably red states, but that’s how I feel about the special election. Reason is that the top two polled candidates currently is Kelly Loeffler, the incumbent Republican... and Doug Collins, a Republican representative. I’d be surprised if a democrat makes the run off tbh. The one thing that gives them a chance is that Loeffler is a corrupto, which might allow dems to steal second place behind Collins. 
Texas: This seat should be more competitive, but MJ Hegar is not running a good campaign at all. That and Cornyn is not as unpopular as Cruz. If the Democrats nominated a better candidate, they might’ve had a better chance of picking this seat up (though I still think Cornyn would be the favorite). Definitely a wasted opportunity. 

Mississippi: Cindy Hyde Smith is running against Mike Espy again, who was within 7 points of beating. It’s not impossible to think that Espy could improve on his margin, but even if he improves his margin Hyde Smith has about a 99% chance of winning. 
Kentucky: Last, and certainly least, there’s Kentucky. Oh boy. Where to even begin with this one. Amy McGrath is such an abysmal candidate. In fact I think the only reason the dems wanted her is that she’s a good fundraiser. Plus, of all the states I’ve mentioned Kentucky is easily the most Republican leaning of them all. In fact, Charles Booker was a much better candidate than McGrath and would make that race much more competitive... and he would be struggling to defeat Mitch McConnell. Just because someone is super unpopular doesn’t mean they’ll get taken down is a solidly red state. Don’t donate your money to this race. You have a much better pick up opportunity in any of the races I mentioned above then you ever would in Kentucky. 
 

Last thing I want to mention is that the Republicans don’t have a lot of pickup opportunities. They will certainly get Alabama. But there’s definitely a second potential seat the Republicans could pick up: in Michigan. Michigan will most likely go to the Democrats this time, and the incumbent dem Gary Peters will most likely win. Keep in mind, however, that Peters opponent John James got within 7 points of Debbie Stabenow, who was more popular than Peters. And there also was some polling that showed Peters leading less comfortably than he should be. So while I think it’s likely that Gary Peters win in Michigan, definitely don’t count out the possibility of John James pulling the upset and taking the seat from Peters. 

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Pretty much how I saw it @Joey Russ, thanks for that. From a Dem point-of-view on this, I think their key aims are to make sure they avoid a vote before Election Day and then hope that Biden and Mark Kelly both win. That would mean the Republicans were deprived of their majority before January and Biden would nominate Ginsburg's replacement in January. Mad to think if the maths add up the Republicans might still try to ram it through before January even if they were set to lose control of the Senate and the Presidency - surely not...

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16 hours ago, Death Duke said:

A woman who’s against women’s rights? This is gonna go down well. 

6 hours ago, The Quim Reaper said:


You’re a very balanced combination of moron and cunt.

Ignorance is profoundly self evident in your, uh, "comeback".

 

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7 hours ago, The Quim Reaper said:


You’re a very balanced combination of moron and cunt.

Well that was certainly uncalled for, I’m sorry you were brought up by clearly unfit parents that neglected to you teach manners.   

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3 minutes ago, Nurse Rached said:

Well that was Certainly uncalled for, I’m sorry you were brought up by clearly unfit parents that neglected teach manners.   

Everyone on this forum is a liberal. Just troll them, I recommend not communicating.

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7 hours ago, Dying Probably said:

 

https://www.mcconnell.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/pressreleases?ID=A3B740CE-F80C-4842-B656-11A1154B55D0

 

I'm not sure whether that's a tad hypocritical, my friend...

McConnell is a career politician that will most likely be flushed out when President Trump and real conservatives complete the cleaning of the swamp in his second term. The real shakeup is going to be the moderate silent majority, especially Blacks, Hispanics, Asian, and of course, Women, who will impose that message as conservative voices of all races and gender, because they know the jackass blue party is racist, sexist, anti-american and anti-family, and the GOP will take not only all the branches of the federal government but replace the majority of Governors and major city Mayors up for election before 7 pm Pacific.

The Democrat lifer politicians, RINOs and left wing fanatics have sealed their fates over the last 5 years. By the way, these are headlines from a  self proclaimed liberal reporter with a long record of being truthful and honest. And yes, President Trump has been nominated for TWO! Nobel Peace prizes. hqdefault.jpg?sqp=-oaymwEjCPYBEIoBSFryq4hqdefault.jpg?sqp=-oaymwEjCPYBEIoBSFryq4hqdefault.jpg?sqp=-oaymwEjCPYBEIoBSFryq4hqdefault.jpg?sqp=-oaymwEjCPYBEIoBSFryq4

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44 minutes ago, kurlys said:

 

Insults and bad manners are all that These losers have left. Give the poor guy a break he Is clearly a product of our failed public schools not to mention incompetent child upbringing. This is all he has left, bitter hate, bigotry and sexism.

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5 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

The way I see it, the Democrats currently are very likely to at least gain some senate seats for the next session. In fact, a lot of Republican held seats have potential to flip this in this election. So what seats exactly are competitive this time around? I’ll go around and name the likelihood of a seat flipping from most likely to least likely (at least those who even has a slight potential of flipping. 
 

Arizona: Martha McSally has run an abysmal campaign. Last time I checked she’s less popular than Kirsten Sinema, who’s a democrat. And with all that, Mark Kelly himself has run a solid campaign. I’d be surprised if this seat doesn’t flip. 
Colorado: The state is definitely becoming quite solid towards the Democrats (Hillary won it in 2016), and Cory Gardner is not really liked there. And you have a former governor who was quite popular. So why do I put this seat as less likely than Arizona? Basically what puts it down is that Hickenlooper did have to deal with an ethics investigation this year, which I think hurts him slightly. Still, this seat will mostly be a dem pick up.

North Carolina: After Arizona and Colorado, there aren’t any seats that seem like guarantees. However, the next closest seat has to be North Carolina. Thom Tillis is quite wishy washy, and Cal Cunningham is running a solid campaign. Besides that, Tillis only won his seat by about a percentage point in a Republican wave year. That puts Tillis in a certain amount of danger. Could Tillis hold on? I’d say yes, but I do think at this point Cunningham is the favorite

Maine: Despite it’s blue lean I don’t think Maine is a guaranteed pick up. You see, Susan Collins was a very popular incumbent before the whole Kavanaugh situation, and she won by massive percentage points in the past. She won’t win by that large of a margin now, but she could very well eke out a victory ala Joe Manchin. Sarah Gideon is not a bad opponent though, which means this race is still competitive, and Gideon certainly could win 

Iowa: I think Iowa is the most likely tipping point state of the dems win the senate race outright. This race is definitely a toss up. Joni Ernst is not really well liked as an incumbent, and Theresa Greenfield has done a decent job fundraising. Polling shows Greenfield ahead as well. The thing is, most people expect Iowa to vote for Trump in the presidential election, so the is on whether Greenfield would have enough Trump voters to put her on top. It’s certainly plausible. I think it’s too early to really know who’ll win. 
Montana: This race is interesting. You have Steve Bullock who is still a quite popular governor running up against Steve Daines who, unlike many of the other senate candidates mentioned, is still quite popular. But Montana was also one of the few states to re elect a red state democrat, so it’s certainly plausible that Montana gets picked up. However, I do think the advantage goes to Daines at this point. 
After Montana, there’s a steep drop off in chances of picking up seats from other Republicans. However, if there were seats that the dems could pick up, it’d go like this

South Carolina: If you told me that South Carolina would be competitive last year, I would be laughing my ass off. However, there’s some polling that indicates the race is much tighter than it should be. Jamie Harrison is also running a good campaign, and good candidates does help your chances of winning that seat. Still, I expect Lindsey Graham will win the seat, but it definitely could be closer than expected.

Georgia (regular): Tbh, I’m not really confident that this senate race is as competitive as people say, but the margins will probably be decently close. I don’t think Georgia’s quite there into being a true swing state, but hey, I’ve been surprised before. 
Kansas: It’s really shocking that Kansas is being seen as potentially competitive. I thought once Kobach lost the primary the chance of this race being competitive would dwindle, but there are still polls that show the race is within a couple percentage points. Given the red lean of Kansas I still expect Roger Marshall to win, but I think there’s a small chance of an upset. 
Alaska: Alaska is probably the most under the radar of all the races I’m mentioning, but Al Gross is running a pretty solid campaign. Also Dan Sullivan only won by about 2 percentage points last time. I still think the Republican lean will get Sullivan the win, but is the upset potential there. I’d say it’s possible

Georgia (special): it’s weird to see a somewhat swing state being below some reliably red states, but that’s how I feel about the special election. Reason is that the top two polled candidates currently is Kelly Loeffler, the incumbent Republican... and Doug Collins, a Republican representative. I’d be surprised if a democrat makes the run off tbh. The one thing that gives them a chance is that Loeffler is a corrupto, which might allow dems to steal second place behind Collins. 
Texas: This seat should be more competitive, but MJ Hegar is not running a good campaign at all. That and Cornyn is not as unpopular as Cruz. If the Democrats nominated a better candidate, they might’ve had a better chance of picking this seat up (though I still think Cornyn would be the favorite). Definitely a wasted opportunity. 

Mississippi: Cindy Hyde Smith is running against Mike Espy again, who was within 7 points of beating. It’s not impossible to think that Espy could improve on his margin, but even if he improves his margin Hyde Smith has about a 99% chance of winning. 
Kentucky: Last, and certainly least, there’s Kentucky. Oh boy. Where to even begin with this one. Amy McGrath is such an abysmal candidate. In fact I think the only reason the dems wanted her is that she’s a good fundraiser. Plus, of all the states I’ve mentioned Kentucky is easily the most Republican leaning of them all. In fact, Charles Booker was a much better candidate than McGrath and would make that race much more competitive... and he would be struggling to defeat Mitch McConnell. Just because someone is super unpopular doesn’t mean they’ll get taken down is a solidly red state. Don’t donate your money to this race. You have a much better pick up opportunity in any of the races I mentioned above then you ever would in Kentucky. 
 

Last thing I want to mention is that the Republicans don’t have a lot of pickup opportunities. They will certainly get Alabama. But there’s definitely a second potential seat the Republicans could pick up: in Michigan. Michigan will most likely go to the Democrats this time, and the incumbent dem Gary Peters will most likely win. Keep in mind, however, that Peters opponent John James got within 7 points of Debbie Stabenow, who was more popular than Peters. And there also was some polling that showed Peters leading less comfortably than he should be. So while I think it’s likely that Gary Peters win in Michigan, definitely don’t count out the possibility of John James pulling the upset and taking the seat from Peters. 

All those words and yet,  nothing to back it up. Lets look at what a real liberal journalist says about the Democratic Party at this juncture.

 hqdefault.jpg?sqp=-oaymwEjCPYBEIoBSFryq4 hqdefault.jpg?sqp=-oaymwEjCPYBEIoBSFryq4

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4 minutes ago, kurlys said:

All those words and yet,  nothing to back it up. Lets look at what a real liberal journalist says about the Democratic Party at this juncture. 

 hqdefault.jpg?sqp=-oaymwEjCPYBEIoBSFryq4

They are delusional just like 2016

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3 hours ago, Nurse Rached said:

Insults and bad manners are all that These losers have left. Give the poor guy a break he Is clearly a product of our failed public schools not to mention incompetent child upbringing. This is all he has left, bitter hate, bigotry and sexism.


You mean the bitter hate you demonstrate in your celebrating RBG’s death and using the junior school favourite term ‘loser’ to describe everyone who has a different viewpoint, the bigotry you demonstrated in your brushing off BLM simply as ‘leftist riots’ that need ‘crushing’, and the sexism you demonstrated in referring to Justice Ginsburg repeatedly as “old bat”.

 

This place is not a political rally, you delusional, impertinent little cretin. Stop treating it as such.

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7 hours ago, Nurse Rached said:

Insults and bad manners are all that These losers have left. Give the poor guy a break he Is clearly a product of our failed public schools not to mention incompetent child upbringing. This is all he has left, bitter hate, bigotry and sexism.

From a centrist perspective, the left is very naïve and sensitive when it comes to BLM and the topic of being racist/sexist/whatever-ist to the point where it clouds their judgement and that they just go along with them without realising the real damage they are doing. George Floyd's death WAS police brutality, you dont overdose by having someone crushing your neck for 7 minutes, but BLM's response was to destroy the neighbourhood, shops and homes in the black communities - which only hurts really them.

 

With that being said, from a moral standpoint I could never wholeheartedly endorse Trump, considering he is such a fucking dope that he has to constantly consort his advisors on every single occasion and still make dumb decisions and publicly get shit wrong. He will happily do or say anything to get the boomer vote just as much as Joe Biden/Nancy Pelosi etc with the black vote. 

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