The Ukraine Crisis

[maryportfuncity 9,987]

8 minutes ago, Great Uncle Bulgaria said:

I don't get the assertions that Russia is losing. Certainly it's  not gone to plan for the Russians but nevertheless they've taken a lot of Ukraine territory and I don't see any reason why they won't continue to do so, particularly in the south (where they have much of the coast already) and the East. The Ukrainians don't have enough men and equipment on the ground. Clearly NATO (sensibly) doesn't want to get directly involved and the best case scenario is that an agreement is reached whereby Russia keeps what it's taken but undertakes not to try and take the rest of Ukraine (at least until it comes back for another go in 5 years' time when it is convinced it can get the rest of it more quickly than it has done this time). There's a lot of good will towards Ukraine in the West now but after a few months of fuel rationing, shortages of some foodstuffs, inflation etc  I think public opinion will selfishly tire of making 'sacrifices' to support them.

 

 

Yeah, but - Russia has to hold territory full of people who hate them. They lasted around a decade in Afghanistan in those circumstances and the rebels who forced them out weren't that well armed. No major battleships were damaged in that eventual defeat. This is a test case for NATO and western values in general, Those occupied can expect ongoing support from political leaders (or most of them in the west) and some of the moves to reduce Russian power - like sanctions and attempts to source the stuff Russia exports from other places - will be long term too. It'll run longer than Breaking Bad and retain viewers as it does, IMHO at least

[arghton 6,114]

But what will Russia (Putin) accomplish? 

This far they've managed to bomb Ukrainian cities to the ground, lost a few ships and over ten thousand soldiers. Whatever they'll get will probably have insurgents, rebels.

They've also got a ton of other headaches now including Kazakhstan's President implementing reforms and possibly trying to make his country a democracy, multiple countries including Finland and Sweden likely planning on joining NATO, Japan claiming the Kuril Islands, Russia's corruption, poverty (especially in Volga Federal District) and Belarus that they're trying to keep from becoming a western country by helping keep that puppet in power.  Seems like there might also be some resistance inside the country as there have been three "mysterious" fires this week, one at Russia's biggest chemical plant, one at a defence research institute and one reportedly at a rocket and spacecraft scientific center. There are also the Chechen resistance, weaker but still there. Putin's going to fall one way or another in the future, but when and how? I hope I'll live to see it. 

[Insane 321]

33 minutes ago, arghton said:

But what will Russia (Putin) accomplish? 

This far they've managed to bomb Ukrainian cities to the ground, lost a few ships and over ten thousand soldiers. Whatever they'll get will probably have insurgents, rebels.

They've also got a ton of other headaches now including Kazakhstan's President implementing reforms and possibly trying to make his country a democracy, multiple countries including Finland and Sweden likely planning on joining NATO, Japan claiming the Kuril Islands, Russia's corruption, poverty (especially in Volga Federal District) and Belarus that they're trying to keep from becoming a western country by helping keep that puppet in power.  Seems like there might also be some resistance inside the country as there have been three "mysterious" fires this week, one at Russia's biggest chemical plant, one at a defence research institute and one reportedly at a rocket and spacecraft scientific center. There are also the Chechen resistance, weaker but still there. Putin's going to fall one way or another in the future, but when and how? I hope I'll live to see it. 

As a Non Russian Or Ukrainian who doesn’t know much besides the Ukrainian Side of things due to the western media Russia has had 8 or 9 generals killed already in the almost 2 months the “special military operation” has been going on for also I looked up some stuff and saw Putin had a cancer doctor with him at some time this decade I’m not sure when however.

Also as many of you guys know about the Putin table stuff and how he was holding on with his arms for all the 11 minutes or so the video was which has lead some people predicting that he has Alzheimer’s Or Parkinson's most likely Parkinson’s if I had a honest educated guess. There was a pro democratic group in Russia formed in response of the corruption of the Kremlin and Putin him self which lead to a massive protest against his government. So I would say as soon as this year or maybe in 5-10 years.

[maryportfuncity 9,987]

13 hours ago, arghton said:

But what will Russia (Putin) accomplish? 

This far they've managed to bomb Ukrainian cities to the ground, lost a few ships and over ten thousand soldiers. Whatever they'll get will probably have insurgents, rebels.

They've also got a ton of other headaches now including Kazakhstan's President implementing reforms and possibly trying to make his country a democracy, multiple countries including Finland and Sweden likely planning on joining NATO, Japan claiming the Kuril Islands, Russia's corruption, poverty (especially in Volga Federal District) and Belarus that they're trying to keep from becoming a western country by helping keep that puppet in power.  Seems like there might also be some resistance inside the country as there have been three "mysterious" fires this week, one at Russia's biggest chemical plant, one at a defence research institute and one reportedly at a rocket and spacecraft scientific center. There are also the Chechen resistance, weaker but still there. Putin's going to fall one way or another in the future, but when and how? I hope I'll live to see it. 

 

 

Aye, the pile on of pressures may even test his Botox face to the point it actually registers an emotion!

[gcreptile 10,211]

On 23/04/2022 at 01:31, arghton said:

But what will Russia (Putin) accomplish? 

This far they've managed to bomb Ukrainian cities to the ground, lost a few ships and over ten thousand soldiers. Whatever they'll get will probably have insurgents, rebels.

They've also got a ton of other headaches now including Kazakhstan's President implementing reforms and possibly trying to make his country a democracy, multiple countries including Finland and Sweden likely planning on joining NATO, Japan claiming the Kuril Islands, Russia's corruption, poverty (especially in Volga Federal District) and Belarus that they're trying to keep from becoming a western country by helping keep that puppet in power.  Seems like there might also be some resistance inside the country as there have been three "mysterious" fires this week, one at Russia's biggest chemical plant, one at a defence research institute and one reportedly at a rocket and spacecraft scientific center. There are also the Chechen resistance, weaker but still there. Putin's going to fall one way or another in the future, but when and how? I hope I'll live to see it. 

They'll kill as many Ukrainians as they can and will forcefully deport the rest who is able to work in a Siberian mine. They'll try to raise the share of the Russian / Russian-friendly population to move the border bit by bit, the same way they are doing it right now with Luhansk and Donetsk. Destruction is the point. Ukrainian refugees will be less likely to return to Ukraine if their country is completely destroyed and Russia seems to be able to do to its neighbours whatever it wants.

Russia wants the Ukrainian territory, and to convert a defeated remnant population to Russian nationalism. Once they have it, they'll try to make the rest of Europe as dependent on agrarian products as they did with oil and gas.

[arghton 6,114]

 

[prussianblue 787]

On 25/04/2022 at 20:03, arghton said:

 

 

In addition to these explosions, nearby the Russians have bombed the main bridge across the Dniester estuary, greatly hampering communications between Odesa and Budjak, the western part of Odesa Oblast that borders Moldova and Romania and is almost severed from the rest of Ukraine by the estuary.

 

Could this be the prelude to an amphibious landing of Budjak by the Russians? It could be a useful distraction for any attack on Odesa itself. It's a flat, thinly-populated area,  and probably not that well defended. Its strategic value is debatable, but it would deprive Ukraine of more coastline, colour more of the map in red, and would perhaps be useful as a means of getting to Moldova from the south to aid Transnistrian forces.

 

Of course, given the state of the Black Sea Fleet at this point, an amphibious landing may well be sheer fantasy.

[arghton 6,114]

Russia's tv channels now talking about how long it would take for a nuke to reach different European cities. 

Hoping that if Putin's government falls, these propagandists will get punished.

 

Meanwhile in Moscow, multiple cars with "Z" burned:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1602793/Russia-news-Moscow-Kustanayskaya-Street-car-explosion-fire

[Grim Up North 3,565]

1 hour ago, arghton said:

Russia's tv channels now talking about how long it would take for a nuke to reach different European cities. 

 

Do they mention Carlisle? 

 

Actually I'm in Turkey next week (wanted to get closer to the action) so be nice if they leave it till after my hols.

[maryportfuncity 9,987]

1 minute ago, Grim Up North said:

 

Do they mention Carlisle? 

 

Actually I'm in Turkey next week (wanted to get closer to the action) so be nice if they leave it till after my hols.

 

No-o-o-o, not Carlisle

 

Fuck sake, we've just appointed Paul Simpson on a three season contract as manager - we're going places!

 

[arghton 6,114]

Protests in Russia's puppet state "Luhansk People's Republic"

They demand to meet Leonid Pasechnik, the head of the "Luhansk PR"

[Insane 321]

A Group of Communist Politicians from the Primorye Krai Region called on Putin to end the war in Ukraine these four men were 

Leonid Vasyukevich (Pictured) ,Gennady Shulga, Natalya Kochugova, and Aleksandr Sustov. 
 

After they made these comments Vasyukevich and Shulga where not allowed to take the floor in that session and as well as being kicked out.

 

it turns out that Suslov And Kochugova didn’t sign the statement but Suslov did say he had “personal feelings” about the war 

 

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-official-demands-putin-end-ukraine-war-invasion-escorted-out-meeting-1710770

 

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-primorye-parliament-war-dissent/31871358.html

[RoverAndOut 3,396]

Horrific news from Ukraine tonight, with 2 Brits facing death by firing squad after a sham trial in the People's Republic of Donetsk. Accused of being mercenaries, with no witnesses called, the men are actually enlisted members of the Ukrainian army from prior to the current conflict and have familial links to the country. Robert Jenrick feigning outrage on the news, claiming it will be made clear Russia cannot get away with this, but quite what he's going to do to free them is unclear. Putin will no doubt use their impending death as a bargaining chip to strengthen his crumbling position, and their best hope is some kind of prisoner exchange I imagine. Perhaps including the Russian soldier who was convicted in Ukraine the other week of cold blooded murder of an innocent civilian. For which he was given a life sentence and no death penalty. The difference between thugs and civilised society. We become too desensitised to the horrors we see coming out of Ukraine, but the injustice of this news today has really pissed me off. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61745556

 

On the other side, I saw an article in one of the papers today (Telegraph I think) that there's been an explosion in the occupied city of Kherson, at a cafe frequented by Russian soldiers, leaving 4 people dead. It is believed to be the first terrorist attack conducted by a growing Ukrainian resistance movement. Good. They've said all along that Russia doesn't have the resources to occupy Ukraine for any length of time; looks like they're about to find out.

[maryportfuncity 9,987]

17 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

Horrific news from Ukraine tonight, with 2 Brits facing death by firing squad after a sham trial in the People's Republic of Donetsk. Accused of being mercenaries, with no witnesses called, the men are actually enlisted members of the Ukrainian army from prior to the current conflict and have familial links to the country. Robert Jenrick feigning outrage on the news, claiming it will be made clear Russia cannot get away with this, but quite what he's going to do to free them is unclear. Putin will no doubt use their impending death as a bargaining chip to strengthen his crumbling position, and their best hope is some kind of prisoner exchange I imagine. Perhaps including the Russian soldier who was convicted in Ukraine the other week of cold blooded murder of an innocent civilian. For which he was given a life sentence and no death penalty. The difference between thugs and civilised society. We become too desensitised to the horrors we see coming out of Ukraine, but the injustice of this news today has really pissed me off. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61745556

 

On the other side, I saw an article in one of the papers today (Telegraph I think) that there's been an explosion in the occupied city of Kherson, at a cafe frequented by Russian soldiers, leaving 4 people dead. It is believed to be the first terrorist attack conducted by a growing Ukrainian resistance movement. Good. They've said all along that Russia doesn't have the resources to occupy Ukraine for any length of time; looks like they're about to find out.

 

 

Yeah, it'll be a bit deja vu for those Russians old enough to remember their country occupying Afghanistan. They can't claim to be in charge without being seen to be out there enforcing their power and the locals will always better them on knowing where to stage an ambush or booby trap. God help any off duty Russian who actually asks for Jagerbomb.

[MortalCaso 1,422]

18 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

For which he was given a life sentence and no death penalty. The difference between thugs and *civilized* society.

I don't think the death penalty is a good measure of a civilized society or not.

 

We all die, as this forum knows best. Some do not deserve to breathe the same air as others. If it was up to me the Russian soldier would already be dead.

[gcreptile 10,211]

Ukraine's troops are breaking through the Russian lines everywhere, Russian morale is collapsing and they're fleeing. Things are moving fast right now.

[Paul Bearer 5,614]

9 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

Ukraine's troops are breaking through the Russian lines everywhere, Russian morale is collapsing and they're fleeing. Things are moving fast right now.

Good. I'm sure my Ukrainian guests will be delighted to hear of this. 

[Tower1 73]

10 hours ago, gcreptile said:

Ukraine's troops are breaking through the Russian lines everywhere, Russian morale is collapsing and they're fleeing. Things are moving fast right now.

 

It's completely opposite, Ukraine's army is devastated and NATO is preparing to sack Zelenski.

[Genfærd 421]

On 10/09/2022 at 15:03, gcreptile said:

Ukraine's troops are breaking through the Russian lines everywhere, Russian morale is collapsing and they're fleeing. Things are moving fast right now.

 

And they're so backed up in a corner, that they're not even denying the use of nukes at the moment. Guess we'll see how it goes...

[gcreptile 10,211]

Partial mobilization and nuclear threats now.

 

I've been pretty sure from the start of this, meaning the 2022 war, not the whole crisis since 2014, that the Russian efforts to absorb Ukraine will fail, but it's going to take 2-3 years and will lead to a lot of sacrifice (the things that count as sacrifice in the civilized West).

I mean I didn't know that Zelensky wouldn't flee and survive, but I was at least sure that the West would support partisan uprisings, that there would be a sort of frontline at the Dnjepr River, that slowly but surely Russia would have to retreat.

Now, Russia never got as far and it's looking a little easier than I expected (typing as my now somewhat more expensive gas heating is keeping me warm).

 

But now, we reach a new phase. The question is not whether Russia will lose (they eventually will), but how far they will go to prevent the loss. The shortcut would be to only "lose" Putin. But right now, I do feel somewhat uneasy.

[The Old Crem 3,164]

I’ve got a bad feeling nuclear war is coming. 

[Toast 14,795]

2 hours ago, The Old Crem said:

I’ve got a bad feeling nuclear war is coming. 

 

You would.

[En Passant 2,930]

11 hours ago, The Old Crem said:

I’ve got a bad feeling nuclear war is coming. 

 

Good job @Gooseberry Crumble's bowel movement predictions are more accurate than yours then.

[Windsor 2,142]

On 23/09/2022 at 10:30, The Old Crem said:

I’ve got a bad feeling nuclear war is coming. 

Don’t worry about it. You’ll literally be dead before you know it…

[gcreptile 10,211]

On 21/09/2022 at 10:46, gcreptile said:

But now, we reach a new phase. The question is not whether Russia will lose (they eventually will), but how far they will go to prevent the loss.

Well, if the Internet is right, the answer includes sabotaging oil infrastructure and the implication of doing the same to Norway - to keep the energy prices high in Europe.