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Sean

Predict The Drop 40

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A shot at this, then:

 

1.       Kirk Douglas

2.       Clive James

3.       Prince Philip

4.       Rev Billy Graham

5.       Leah Bracknell

6.       George Bush Sr

7.       Olivia de Havilland

8.       Vera Lynn

9.       Paul Gascoigne

10.   Jimmy Carter

11.   Queenie

12.   Stephen Hawking

13.   Robert Mugabe

14.   Donald rump

15.   Prunella Scales

16.   Nobby Stiles

17.   Dick Van Dyke

18.   Stan lee

19.   Stefan karl

20.   Val kilmer

21.   Denis norden

22.   Greg Gilbert

23.   Olivia Newton John

24.   Linda Nolan

25.   Tessa Jowell

26.   Billy Connolly

27.   John mccain

28.   Franco Zeffirelli

29.   Sidney poitier

30.   Patrick Cryne

31.   Paul Alcock

32.   Dean Francis

33.   Aretha Franklin

34.   Fernando Ricksen

35.   Gorbachev

36.   Rolf Harris

37.   Angela Lansbury

38.   Ami Brown

39.   Ronnie Wood

40.   Martin Peters

 

In no particular order. Ami Brown is my stab in the dark for "much mentioned terminal case who surprisingly appears on the Drop 40". 

Gone

Valerie harper, doris day, shannen Doherty, Gordon banks

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11 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

I actually considered Kumar for the list, but my gut feeling is that he seems a lot like Mario Soares for next year...

EDIT: Forgot about Fernando Ricksen as well, he might make it...

 

Ricksen a sure thing to appear IMO, he's the default "pick someone with MND" name now that Joost is gone.

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My prediction

1)John McCain

2)Olivia Newton John

3)Leah Bracknell

4)Kirk Douglas

5)Billy Graham

6)George H W Bush

7)Prince Philip

8)Nobby Stiles

9)Vera Lynn

10)Olivia de Havilland

11)Jimmy Carter

12)Charlotte Rae

13)Doris Day

14)Tessa Howell

15)Stephen Hawking

16)Prunella Scales

17)Denis Norden

18)Barbara Bush

19)Rayya Elias

20)Leslie Philip's

21)Gerd Muller

22)Linda Nolan

23)Pope Benedict

24)Patrick Cryne

25)Henry Kissinger

26)Billy Connolly

27)Peter Carrington

28)Bob Dole

29)John Hume

30)Ray Wilson

31)Jacques Chirac

32)Stan Lee

33)Martin Peters

34)Paul Gascoigne

35)Noel Conway

36)Stefan Karl Stefannson

37)Greg Gilbert

38)Ami Brown

39)Devin Lima

40)Dean Francis

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, msc said:

14.   Donald rump

 

Are you implying that the President of the USA is an arse?

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2 minutes ago, Death Impends said:

 

Ricksen a sure thing to appear IMO, he's the default "pick someone with MND" name now that Joost is gone.

Yeah, I realize that now. Ricksen replaces Prowse (who admittedly was a shot in the dark...).

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Just now, Toast said:

Are you implying that the President of the USA is an arse?

 

Yes, yes I am. :lol:

 

I could change the typo, but if it's inadvertently amusing...

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With it being the new year and some new people stumbling on, here's a final guess at who I think will make the drop 40 this year:

  1. Kirk Douglas
  2. Leah Bracknell
  3. Clive James
  4. George Bush Sr
  5. John McCain
  6. Reverend Billy Graham
  7. Prince Philip
  8. Olivia de Haviland
  9. Olivia Newton-John
  10. Vera Lynn
  11. Nobby Stiles
  12. Stefan Karl Stefansson
  13. Paul Gascoigne
  14. Valerie Harper
  15. Doris Day
  16. Jimmy Carter
  17. Greg Gilbert
  18. Prunella Scales
  19. Robert Mugabe
  20. Donald Trump
  21. Queen Elizabeth
  22. Stan Lee
  23. Stephen Hawking
  24. Denis Norden
  25. Fernando Ricksen
  26. Val Kilmer
  27. Tessa Jowell
  28. Betty White
  29. Pope Emeritus Benedict
  30. Linda Nolan
  31. Devin Lima
  32. Dick van Dyke
  33. Bob Barker
  34. Rolf Harris
  35. Dean Francis
  36. Liam Miller
  37. Marieke Vervoort
  38. Barbara Bush
  39. Charlotte Rae
  40. Mel Brooks

Thinking only Doherty and Banks fall off this year...

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My updated prediction

1)John McCain

2)Leah Bracknell

3)Kirk Douglas

4) Clive James

5) George H W Bush

6)Billy Graham

7)Prince Philip

8)Tessa Jowell

9)Nobby Stiles

19)Olivia de Havilland

20)Stan Lee

21)Vera Lynn

22)Olivia Newton _John

23)Rayya Elias

24)Patrick Cryne

25)Denis Norden

26)Stefan Karl Stefannson

27)Marieke Vervoot

28)Robert Mugabe

29)Liam Miller

30)Stephen Hawking

31)Fernando Ricksen

32)Dean Francis

33)Greg Gilbert

34)Jimmy Carter

35)Barbara Bush

36)Stirling Moss

37)Val Kilmer

38)Morgan Tsvangirai

39)Linda Nolan

40)Mark E Smith

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What’s 10 - 18 on your list? 

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I wonder if Cryne and Elias are going to make it. It will be close. They are only names for insiders (forum members). But among those almost everyone picked them.

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Crazy thought, I know, but what if Matt Cappotelli makes the drop 40? Headline may be a bit misleading, but a lot of people might’ve picked him if they wanted to fill the rest of their spots with a cancer person...

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Hmm

 

1-20 sure things, 21-31 likely, 32-40 will they or won't they?

  1. Kirk Douglas
  2. Leah Bracknell
  3. John McCain
  4. Prince Philip
  5. Olivia Newton-John
  6. Rev Billy Graham
  7. George H.W. Bush
  8. Olivia de Havilland
  9. Clive James
  10. Vera Lynn
  11. Tessa Jowell
  12. Paul Gascoigne
  13. Jimmy Carter
  14. Valerie Harper
  15. Nobby Stiles
  16. Robert Mugabe
  17. Doris Day
  18. Fernando Ricksen
  19. Stefan Karl Stefansson
  20. Greg Gilbert
  21. Marieke Vervoort
  22. Stephen Hawking
  23. Linda Nolan
  24. Stan Lee
  25. Prunella Scales
  26. Donald Trump (I said he'd drop before, mostly because Obama did in 2010 after making D40 in 2009. But Trump's unhealthy habits and massive unpopularity made me reconsider. Spade saying there's a bunch of #metoo theme teams seals the deal)
  27. Liam Miller
  28. Patrick Cryne (the big factor that makes me think he gets the extra "oomph" to make it - he was a survivor of the 2017 winning team)
  29. Rayya Elias (sort of like the above, Bert didn't pick her last year but several high-ranking teams did)
  30. Queen Elizabeth II (fully recovered, but such a massive name that alone keeps her on)
  31. Val Kilmer (now that he confirmed the cancer rumors - he might've dropped otherwise)
  32. Barbara Bush
  33. Charlotte Rae
  34. Denis Norden
  35. Dick Van Dyke
  36. Dean Francis (either sneaks on ala SKS 2017 or barely misses it ala Gilbert 2017)
  37. Devin Lima (as above)
  38. Morgan Tsvangirai
  39. Betty White (well overdue for an appearance in the vein of DVD/Doris Day, ie A-list celebrity in good health but very old)
  40. Benedict XVI (how has he not been a recurring D40 fixture yet?)

 

Doherty (probably still on at least 20 teams, but fully recovered) and Banks (still doing ok, enough people likely get bored) fall off

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We both predict 37/40 of the same names, as well as predicting the same two likely drops. I believe that all 6 cases are definitely borderline cases for the drop 40 though. Elias could very well make the drop 40, considering that at least 20 teams picked her on the forums, and there could be more in droves. My gut feeling, however, is that she'll just miss out. Cryne I'm a little bit more wary on saying he'll make the drop 40, and I say that because of Kris Travis in 2016. He still appeared on a lot of teams despite being unique the previous year, but he didn't even make the top 50 that year. I think Cryne will break that point at least, but I don't know if appearing on 2 teams last year is enough, though improved teams even with casual players might push it. Tsvangirai, well, it's interesting with him since it didn't seem like a lot of the forum members have support for him. Besides you and me, there was gcreptile's and drol's B Team, Dead Cow (and even then he came in for him because he was a sub for Willow), Sean, and Eesti. The least likely of the 6 imo, but I wouldn't necessarily rule him out cause I could see people outside the forum picking him due to Mugabe's forced resignation, which he was mentioned in that coverage. Barker I think could make it due to the National Esquire bullshit, and a lot of forum members seemed to be so keen on him for some reason. Brooks I think is similar to Van Dyke/Day, ie a very well known name that despite no known health issues, he will be on a lot of teams anyways. Harris made it on in the past, so I think he might make it on again? He received more coverage since then that makes me think he might be back on. But the least likely of my three different picks to make the drop 40.

If it turns out that by some strange chance that all 37 similarities make the list but neither of our 3 differences make the drop 40, however, I will be laughing so hard (extremely unlikely, I know, but stranger things have happened in the past...)

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1.Clive James*I think he is getting a this might be his year bump ala Forsyth last year

2.Kirk Douglas

3.Leah Bracknell

4. George H.W. Bush

5.John McCain

6.Prince Phillip

7.Rev Billy Graham

8.Nobby Stiles

9.Olivia Newton-John

10.Linda Nolan

11.Vera Lynn

12.Olivia DeHavilland

13.Zoiders  Bob Mugage

14.Tessa Jowell

15.Valerie Harper

16.Paul Gasciogne

17. Fernando Ricksen

18.Jimmy Carter

19. Marieke Vervoort

20.Doris Day

21.Val Kilmer

22.Dean Francis

23.Stephen Hawking

24.Greg Gilbert

25.Stefan Karl Stefansson

26.Prunella Scales

27.Stan Lee

28.Barbara Bush

29.Liam Miller

30.Pope Ben

31.Queen Elizabeth(will see a drop in picks but hard to see a 20+ drop which is needed for her to miss drop 40)

32.Dick Van Dyke

33.Rayya Elias

34.Sterling Moss

35.Patrick Cryne

36.Betty White

37.Shannon Doherty(Similiar to when Douglas/Franklin were speculated a ton 1 year had a huge drop in picks the following year but still held onto enough to sneak back in)

38.Charlotte Rae

39.Dennis Norden

40.Bob Barker(Had the highly circulated pic of him at his wife's graveyard in National Enquirer this year.Will see an uptick in picks,just depends on if its only 10-15 or 20-30.

 

 

 

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As I am going through the teams already posted, I wonder who is going to make the Drop 40.

 

Well, the obvious entries are in. I did not expect Linda Nolan to make it, but it seems she will.

Possibly Dean Francis and Patrick Cryne as well.

But there is a difference between the active forum members (posting their teams) and the other DDP players.

Out of a bit more than 30 teams I've calculated scores for, Rayya Elias was picked 21 times. But who outside of our circle knew about her? A Drop 40 member will need to be on about 35 teams. That will be interesting to see.

Same goes for Patrick Cryne with 16 people who have picked him so far. A bit of a fringe name. Similar situation though a bit less extreme for Dean Francis, also picked 16 times, but at least a bit more well-known.

Tessa Jowell was picked 17 times, so I guess she will be in.

And I have Marieke Vervoort at 22. She will make it.

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 If their is a ton of sex scandal theme teams perhaps a Woody Allen,Polanski etc type name making a surprise drop 40 entrance who was only on a handful of teams last year. 

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5 hours ago, CaptainChorizo said:

 If their is a ton of sex scandal theme teams perhaps a Woody Allen,Polanski etc type name making a surprise drop 40 entrance who was only on a handful of teams last year. 

If any one of them makes the drop 40, it’s going to be Harvey Weinstein imo...

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On 1/5/2018 at 18:22, Joey Russ said:

With it being the new year and some new people stumbling on, here's a final guess at who I think will make the drop 40 this year:

  1. Kirk Douglas
  2. Leah Bracknell
  3. Clive James
  4. George Bush Sr
  5. John McCain
  6. Reverend Billy Graham
  7. Prince Philip
  8. Olivia de Haviland
  9. Olivia Newton-John
  10. Vera Lynn
  11. Nobby Stiles
  12. Stefan Karl Stefansson
  13. Paul Gascoigne
  14. Valerie Harper
  15. Doris Day
  16. Jimmy Carter
  17. Greg Gilbert
  18. Prunella Scales
  19. Robert Mugabe
  20. Donald Trump
  21. Queen Elizabeth
  22. Stan Lee
  23. Stephen Hawking
  24. Denis Norden
  25. Fernando Ricksen
  26. Val Kilmer
  27. Tessa Jowell
  28. Betty White
  29. Pope Emeritus Benedict
  30. Linda Nolan
  31. Devin Lima
  32. Dick van Dyke
  33. Bob Barker
  34. Rolf Harris
  35. Dean Francis
  36. Liam Miller
  37. Marieke Vervoort
  38. Barbara Bush
  39. Charlotte Rae
  40. Mel Brooks

Thinking only Doherty and Banks fall off this year...

35/41. Didn’t guess Kissinger or Gascoine, and all 4 Elias, Cryne, and especially Ricketts and Nevin were surprise drop 40 entrants. Pleased with my result though...

EDIT: Val Kilmer didn’t make it, but Leslie Phillips did, so 34/41. Still a great result though...

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Liam Miller is the biggest surprise for me .Yes he has a pancreatic cancer but we don't know if its terminal or at what stage .

 

There is a 5 year survival rate of 70% he was in my top 25 but i think he'll be one for 2019, 2020.

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34/40 Pretty good.

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40 minutes ago, the_engineer said:

Liam Miller is the biggest surprise for me .Yes he has a pancreatic cancer but we don't know if its terminal or at what stage .

 

There is a 5 year survival rate of 70% he was in my top 25 but i think he'll be one for 2019, 2020.

The 5 year survival rate is 3%

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And less than a quarter of those diagnosed last 12 months.

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1 hour ago, Sean said:

The 5 year survival rate is 3%

 

Yes your right . This website you think its talking about pancreatic cancer but starts talking about general cancer.

 

https://www.cancer.org/cancer/pancreatic-cancer/detection-diagnosis-staging/survival-rates.html

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3 hours ago, Sean said:

The 5 year survival rate is 3%

 

Beyond the stats, lots of little things can decide you on a deadpool candidate (how grim Tessa Jowell looked in December, for example), but in the case of Miller, what might have shifted a lot of people, imo, was Martin O'Neill's interview about the diagnosis. MON looked like he was nearly in tears after seeing Miller, would have made you think you think we were talking weeks instead of months.

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I had expected Miller in the Top Ten, but it looks as if the share of US deadpoolers has increased.

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