That Portillo Moment

[Paul Bearer 6,108]

[maryportfuncity 10,657]

6 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

While I think the Tories will hold a couple of seats, I think a lot of voters will feel bloody awful that they actually gave the election to Tezza last time.

 

I do think Scots vote on what is put before them, and Brexit will not be the only show in town up here. Bawjaws himself is absolutely toxic, and there's also an innate dislike of upper-class nonces thinking they know what is best for Scotland. Labour died in Scotland precisely because of what you are seeing down South now, however, deep down left leaning Scots tend to like the idea of regionalism, nationalisation, investment. But they also like thrift.

 

The SNP will do well again, however, if they look like a one issue party of independence, it will also look like they are disregarding their vision on issues - they are struggling on health, education standards and local government - but then isn't everybody?

 

I actually think the LibDems might recover in their heartlands a bit, but Jo Swinson looks precarious. The oppo parties should go hard on her admiration for Thatcher and Tezza, the breaking of bread in the Coalition and the fact she doesn't actually have any Scottish oriented promises - then tata Jo.

 

Brexit Party? Nope, though they will hurt Tories in the seats they want to hold.

 

Greens? I'll tell you what,it wouldn't surprise me if they picked up one or two. Climate change is the big issue in the University towns up here.

 

 

Another thing driving SNP support is Jezza (exactly the kind of English, city-dwelling Labour leader they don't want north of the border) - so SNP can manage some Labour-like socialist policies knowing full-well that many former Labour supporters will stay behind them for as long as Corbyn leads.

 

Re the " an innate dislike of upper-class nonces thinking they know what is best for Scotland" - do you know summat about Boris that's eluded the tabloids - be an interesting campaign if you did!

[msc 18,480]

8 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

While I think the Tories will hold a couple of seats, I think a lot of voters will feel bloody awful that they actually gave the election to Tezza last time.

 

I do think Scots vote on what is put before them, and Brexit will not be the only show in town up here. Bawjaws himself is absolutely toxic, and there's also an innate dislike of upper-class nonces thinking they know what is best for Scotland. Labour died in Scotland precisely because of what you are seeing down South now, however, deep down left leaning Scots tend to like the idea of regionalism, nationalisation, investment. But they also like thrift.

 

The SNP will do well again, however, if they look like a one issue party of independence, it will also look like they are disregarding their vision on issues - they are struggling on health, education standards and local government - but then isn't everybody?

 

I actually think the LibDems might recover in their heartlands a bit, but Jo Swinson looks precarious. The oppo parties should go hard on her admiration for Thatcher and Tezza, the breaking of bread in the Coalition and the fact she doesn't actually have any Scottish oriented promises - then tata Jo.

 

Brexit Party? Nope, though they will hurt Tories in the seats they want to hold.

 

Greens? I'll tell you what,it wouldn't surprise me if they picked up one or two. Climate change is the big issue in the University towns up here.

 

In order:

 

Yeah, I think there is, but that's probably more likely to galvanise the anti-Tory vote itself in the seats. There's quite a few of them it can be squeezed in favour of the Nats. Also in 2017, the SNP were the targets. In 2019, its the Tory government?

 

The Scottish stereotype of counting every penny is very true.

 

I can't argue with the SNP's recent infrastructure planning spree here. Can argue with the stupid named persons thing, but thats been dropped.

 

There's only one seat I can see the Lib Dems winning? That's North East Fife which is still quite Liberal, and has a majority of 2. Maybe Argyll and Bute if the Tory 2017 vote all falls back to the Liberals, but doubtful. Swinson will hang on, I think, the SNP rise in that seat was mostly linked to Nicholson who has fucked off to Ochil this time round.

 

Brexit Party wont top 5% of the vote up here, on a good night. The old school Scottish Tories tend to hate Nigel Farage. The Greens will probably just stand in one or two seats as usual and focus their resources on the PR elections.

 

1 hour ago, maryportfuncity said:

 

 

Another thing driving SNP support is Jezza (exactly the kind of English, city-dwelling Labour leader they don't want north of the border) - so SNP can manage some Labour-like socialist policies knowing full-well that many former Labour supporters will stay behind them for as long as Corbyn leads.

 

The reverse, in fact. Corbyn was much more popular up here than Scottish Labour itself, and was likely the reason for the 6 seats won and massive Labour swing in the Clyde Valley. One thing many folk likely to be swayed by a vote for Labour love is a person they can pretend is Tony Benn. Of course things have gone on the slide considerably since then. Scottish Labour is a black hole that consumes all in its path.

 

However...one thing not to forget is how many Glasgow and surrounding area seats are marginal SNP/Labour seats, and how much Scots on the whole love to boot out Tory governments. If the narrative becomes "Labour could be the largest party" there might be a completely unexpected swing in the Clyde Valley while the SNP and Labour keep their respective spots in the polls.

[Deathray 2,941]

Election Pact between the Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid Cymru.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/election-pact-pursued-by-lib-dems-plaid-cymru-and-greens

 

Could see the Greens and Plaid net a few extra seats and the Lib Dems are fair amount.

 

Guess it also increases chances of a Portillo moment in the Tory party.

[msc 18,480]

4 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

Election Pact between the Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid Cymru.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/election-pact-pursued-by-lib-dems-plaid-cymru-and-greens

 

Could see the Greens and Plaid net a few extra seats and the Lib Dems are fair amount.

 

Guess it also increases chances of a Portillo moment in the Tory party.

 

A Green/Lib Dem pact? How does that go?

 

"Ok, we wont stand in Brighton Pavillion and in return, you don't stand anywhere else..."

[Deathray 2,941]

1 minute ago, msc said:

 

A Green/Lib Dem pact? How does that go?

 

"Ok, we wont stand in Brighton Pavillion and in return, you don't stand anywhere else..."

 

It's main effect will be to keep Labour some of their seats. 

[Deathray 2,941]

The same wombats appear to be in charge of Tory campaign as last time.

 

'Britain deserves better....'

 

Err, yes it does? You've been in power for 9 years! What an open goal for the opposition parties that is!

[philheybrookbay 439]

And to think we have Ann Widdicombe standing in my constituency of Plymouth Sutton and Devonport. It's currently held by Luke Pollard for Labour, but it could be an interesting on to watch 

[Redrumours 861]

It's going to be a joke if the country is gridlocked by an inch of snow!

[Deathray 2,941]

40 minutes ago, redrumours said:

It's going to be a joke if the country is gridlocked by an inch of snow!

 

Was talking about this the other day, if we get historic blizzards on election day then it could presumably help the left quite a bit as older voters will be less able to get out and vote.

[JQW 283]

There was allegedly a Lib Dem / Green pact in my constituency in 2017, as the Lib Dem PPC didn't stand. Although I simply suspect that he cocked up his nomination in some way and it wasn't valid.

[Toast 16,155]

2 hours ago, Kinnock said:

 

Was talking about this the other day, if we get historic blizzards on election day then it could presumably help the left quite a bit as older voters will be less able to get out and vote.

 

I can usually make it down to the pub. 

[Deathray 2,941]

Fuck. Fuck. Fuck.

 

5 more years of the Tories.

 

 

[Deathray 2,941]

Bill has flew through the Lords so this game is on now. Time to get spreadsheeting.

[YoungWillz 21,066]

UKIP has lost its leader.

 

So we always have the leaders, that's Bawjaws,  Jezza, Blackers, The Swindler and Cazza. Can't see any of the DUP going cold, but you never know. Stick a Farage in for good measure, add a sprinkling of Soubry and Gapes, a dash of Chuka and the bitter acrid stench of Esther McVey.

 

Shame old Amber Rudd isn't standing, she squeaked her seat and still got ministerial office.

 

Anyhow, I'm sure you got names out there so chuck them in the cauldron and we'll see what bubbles up on the 12th December.

 

Let the Simon Danczuk memorial game begin.

[msc 18,480]

Well, the answer is going to be Jared O'Mara (sub 300 votes as an independent?) but all the Change UK lot will go.

 

Hot tips to Portillo in 2019...

 

Nia Griffith

yer man Tom Watson

Caroline Flint

Iritable Duncan Syndrome

Theresa Villiers

Zac Goldsmith

Tiger Tim Farron

Jodie Swinson

Luciana Berger

Chuka Oh No

Ian Blackford

Pete Wishart

Joanna Cherry

Frankie Field

Nigel Dodds

 

 

[YoungWillz 21,066]

Surely Jared's not standing?

 

Mind you, he's barely vertical most times, ha!

 

Can't believe Skinner is having another go.

[Deathray 2,941]

2 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

Surely Jared's not standing?

 

Mind you, he's barely vertical most times, ha!

 

Can't believe Skinner is having another go.

 

Probably not.

 

But he's supposedly meant to have already resigned however unresigned and was still a member of parliament at the vote yesterday and hasn't appeared on standing down lists.

 

He's also bonkers enough to try and stand.

 

[Deathray 2,941]

3 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

Surely Jared's not standing?

 

Mind you, he's barely vertical most times, ha!

 

Can't believe Skinner is having another go.

 

This hasn't been officially confirmed yet.

[Deathray 2,941]

Ok first punt:

 

Ian Blackford

 

Looks like a 'sit back and give it to the Lib Dems Lab/Tory pact emerging to try and get him out.

 

(Current Polling / 2017) = Change (Scotland Only)

SNP (39 /36.9%) + 2.1%

CON (21 /28.6%) - 7.6%

LAB (19  /27.1%) -8.1%

LBD (13  /6.8%) +6.2%

 

Blackfords Seat re-arranged for those changes.

 

SNP 40.2% = 42.3%

CON 24.8% = 17.2%

LBD 20.9% = 27.1%

LAB 12.2% = 4.1%

 

That moves Lib Dems into second place. If Unionist and Remain leaning Conservatives and Labour tactically vote Lib Dem you could be looking at him getting booted out.

 

Either way his majority could be seriously cut. 

[philheybrookbay 439]

Sarah Woolaston in Totnes wont get back in. She defected from Conservative to Lib Dem back along, but the old joke of a donkey in a blue rosette applies big style in the South Hams. It was strong true blue even during Blair era. Even if Labour dont stand that wont save her. 

 

Listening to local radio, theres a surprising amount of anger towards SE Cornwall MP Sheryl Murray and Cornwall could go much more Lib Dem meaning she could be in trouble. 

 

 

 

[Deathray 2,941]

Joe Swinson torn apart by Andrew Neil for her 'Britain's next Prime Minister' leaflets.

 

She carries on like this we'll have a Labour government.

[msc 18,480]

1 minute ago, Kinnock said:

Joe Swinson torn apart by Andrew Neil for her 'Britain's next Prime Minister' leaflets.

 

She carries on like this we'll have a Labour government.

 

Really? I think shes going to split the Remain vote and let the Tories in a fair few places.

 

Btw, rumours of tactical voting plans to get rid of Swinson and Blackford at the election. The latter feels more likely.

[YoungWillz 21,066]

Blackford has been the most effective at holding the Government to account. Would be a shame if he goes....but then Angus Robertson did last time.

[Deathray 2,941]

48 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Really? I think shes going to split the Remain vote and let the Tories in a fair few places.

 

Btw, rumours of tactical voting plans to get rid of Swinson and Blackford at the election. The latter feels more likely.

 

If she wasn't such a dreadful interviewee then maybe. Have a watch of this.....

 

 

First section is her interview (the dreadful bit circulating all over the internet is 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0009v71/the-andrew-neil-show-series-1-30102019

 

5:50 onwards to 10:00 where she claims she could become Prime Minister (as her dreadful leaflets) are and then goes on to show her economic ignorance.

 

Thankfully for her nobody watches the Andrew Neil show but if she's included in TV debates she's fucked (which she's pleading for)......