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YoungWillz

That Portillo Moment

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Rather than open a new thread, perhaps the thread could be renamed That Portillo Moment and then we can use this one, given interest is already high?

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5 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

How about Clare Grogan?  Everybody likes her.

No Raymond Burr,everybody love Raymond.

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Thanks DI, thread renamed, let's just open entries (although I expect to see folks waiting to see how things are going round about mid-May anyway).

 

Pick the name of the politician who is most likely to lose by the largest margin on June 8th! I'll collate a bunch of names and have a scoreboard on the morning of the 9th. Doesn't have to be unique, I'm all in favour of joint winners.

 

Wooden spoon goes to the person whose pick loses by the smallest margin or indeed retains their seat by the largest margin from the list collated.

 

In memory of Danny Alexander from 2015.

 

Danny_Alexander.jpg

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Largest margin? Feck...

 

Our man Danczuk. Especially if he's now running as an Indy MP.

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Wonder if anyone will plump for Vince Cable again as he is standing? Thumped, and one of the best Portillo faces of 2015, would he have an even more bitter face if he lost again?

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45 minutes ago, Spade_Cooley said:

I'll take Gloria De Piero.

Straight down the division lobby, no doubt!

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A long shot might be Philip Davies who's been targetted by the Women's Equality Party. Given that he's a sitting Tory and a few of the other parties might soft-peddle to see him unseated it's a possibility that is gaining some press attention. Davies has voted against female-friendly legislation in the past and been somewhat outspoken in a way that doesn't impress the likes of the WEP.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/womens-equality-party-sophie-walker-mp-philip-davies-conservatives-shipley-yorkshire-a7697341.html

 

 

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Looking more and more at the data that's out there (day job, sadly I can't scour google for terminal cancer for a living), I think Jon Cruddas is going to be one of the big casualties this time out. Shame, he looked like the future at one point.

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Thing about Cruddas - he was meant to be in danger last time and 2010 too. He has a habit of surviving.

 

Mind you, so did Michael Forsyth once.

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So, plenty of contenders now the candidates' lists have been verified?

 

Theresa May

Jeremy Corbyn

Angus Robertson

Tim Farron

Paul Nuttall

Caroline Lucas

Mhairi Black

David Mundell

Zak Goldsmith

David Davies

Mary Creagh

Vince Cable

Gloria De Piero

Ed Miliband

Nick Clegg

Anna Soubry

Clive Lewis

Ian Murray

Alistair Carmichael

 

Any more?

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Suspect Alex Salmond, Cat Smith (who will appear on Newsnight soon after to call it an "incredible result for Labour"...), Liz Kendall, and Dame Margaret Beckett might be in trouble too. Just as options.

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53 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

So, plenty of contenders now the candidates' lists have been verified?

 

Theresa May

Jeremy Corbyn

Angus Robertson

Tim Farron

Paul Nuttall

Caroline Lucas

Mhairi Black

David Mundell

Zak Goldsmith

David Davies

Mary Creagh

Vince Cable

Gloria De Piero

Ed Miliband

Nick Clegg

Anna Soubry

Clive Lewis

Ian Murray

Alistair Carmichael

 

Any more?

 

 

Jezza polled damn near 30,000 of an almost 50,000 cast in Islington North last time out - even a coalition hell-bent on stopping him by uniting behind the nearest (Conservative) challenger would be struggling.

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Yvette Cooper or Chuka Umunna would be a true Portillo moment as they are seen as future leaders.

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So would Tom Watson in that case.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said:

 

 

Jezza polled damn near 30,000 of an almost 50,000 cast in Islington North last time out - even a coalition hell-bent on stopping him by uniting behind the nearest (Conservative) challenger would be struggling.

Yeah, but the Westminster leaders are always fair game for this game. ^_^

 

I thought about including Chuka then didn't. But possibly....

 

The Tory up against Alex Salmond is known already as "four jobs", two of which are already political and all of which take second place to his international refereeing. He ain't gonna beat Alex on that record...but if he does, independence will soon follow...

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Theresa May

Jeremy Corbyn

Angus Robertson

Tim Farron

Paul Nuttall

Caroline Lucas

Mhairi Black

David Mundell

Zak Goldsmith

David Davies

Mary Creagh

Vince Cable

Gloria De Piero

Ed Miliband

Nick Clegg

Anna Soubry

Clive Lewis

Ian Murray

Alistair Carmichael

Philip Davies

Jon Cruddas

Yvette Cooper

Simon Danczuk

Chuka Umunna

Tom Watson

Margaret Beckett

Alex Salmond

Liz Kendall

Cat Smith

Dennis Skinner

Ben Gummer

Amber Rudd

Ian Duncan Smith

Stephen Crabb

 

List Updated. Any more nominees? Given the polls, those reliable indicators (pah!), do we need more Tories?

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Tezza has made two trips to Bolsover now, suggesting that the blues seemingly have some data that Dennis Skinner is vulnerable.

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5 minutes ago, Spade_Cooley said:

Tezza has made two trips to Bolsover now, suggesting that the blues seemingly have some data that Dennis Skinner is vulnerable.

I'll add him in. If Skinner goes that could be a contender, not necessarily by largest margin but for shock value.

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Skinner losing his seat would be utterly shocking.For a man who has along with very few others embodied the  left of the Labour party for nearly 50 years losing his seat under a leader on the left of the party would be shocking.Would be similar to Tony Benn losing his Bristol seat in 1983.

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If Dennis loses his seat I reckon it might finish him off.He seems the sort that if he ever retired would just drop dead a few months later.

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Tories might think they have a chance because of the rumblings that there's never been any canvassing done in Bolsover. Thing is, Skinner's done the exact same campaign each election since 1970, and it hasn't harmed him yet. Plus, he has widespread respect (if not support) across the community (as told to me by a staunch Tory) and I doubt there's really the will to vote him out, when there's likely to be a by-election before far too long anyhow.

 

If Bolsover goes Tory, the Labour party are going down to below 20 seats, imo.

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34 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

Theresa May

Jeremy Corbyn

Angus Robertson

Tim Farron

Paul Nuttall

Caroline Lucas

Mhairi Black

David Mundell

Zak Goldsmith

David Davies

Mary Creagh

Vince Cable

Gloria De Piero

Ed Miliband

Nick Clegg

Anna Soubry

Clive Lewis

Ian Murray

Alistair Carmichael

Philip Davies

Jon Cruddas

Yvette Cooper

Simon Danczuk

Chuka Umunna

Tom Watson

Margaret Beckett

Alex Salmond

Liz Kendall

Cat Smith

Dennis Skinner

 

List Updated. Any more nominees? Given the polls, those reliable indicators (pah!), do we need more Tories?

Nick Clegg

Ben Gummer

Amber Rudd

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1 minute ago, Shaun of the Dead said:

Nick Clegg

Ben Gummer

Amber Rudd

Can't put Clegg in twice, unfortunately.

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Someone in London (ie, where there might be a Labour swing against national trend?). Hmm..

 

Iain Duncan Smith?

 

That'd be funny.

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