By-Election Bingo

[rockhopper penguin 2,265]

The south east has over heated to such an extent that the M25 is now quite outdated too. I think that another orbital motorway is required. Before the M25 plan was given the green light the idea was that many orbital roads would be constructed.

 

I'll term it the M17.

 

Junction 1 being Stanstead Airport, going clockwise.

J2 Between Braintree and Chelmford.

J3 Brentwood.

J4 Basildon.

J4 Tilbury Docks, new tunnel below the Thames then between...

J5 Stood and Gravesend,

J6 new junction 3a on the M20 for Maidstone,

J7 Tunbridge

J8 Gatwick, making

J9 Cranleigh,

J10 Haslemere and

J11 Alton New Towns,

J12 crossing the J7 of the M3 at Basingstoke,

J12a new 12a junction on the M4 between Newbury and Reading,

J14 west of Abingdon,

J15 Oxford and

J16 west of Kidlington,

J17 junction looping above Bicester to the M40 J10 and Upper Heyford,

J18 topside of Aylesbury,

J19 below Dunstable,

J20 new junction 9a on the M1,

J21 Luton Airport,

J22 through junction 7 on the A1M below Stevenage,

J23 then making a new town at Sawbridgeworth and

J24 linking with the M11 at a new junction of 8a then back to Stanstead.

 

That will cost about £17 billion but it should keep the South East moving for another 50 years.

Are you a highways planner or QS, perchance? Otherwise you've got far too much time on your hands.

[Rotten Ali 600]

LOL

[maryportfuncity 10,658]

 

The south east has over heated to such an extent that the M25 is now quite outdated too. I think that another orbital motorway is required. Before the M25 plan was given the green light the idea was that many orbital roads would be constructed.

 

I'll term it the M17.

 

Junction 1 being Stanstead Airport, going clockwise.

J2 Between Braintree and Chelmford.

J3 Brentwood.

J4 Basildon.

J4 Tilbury Docks, new tunnel below the Thames then between...

J5 Stood and Gravesend,

J6 new junction 3a on the M20 for Maidstone,

J7 Tunbridge

J8 Gatwick, making

J9 Cranleigh,

J10 Haslemere and

J11 Alton New Towns,

J12 crossing the J7 of the M3 at Basingstoke,

J12a new 12a junction on the M4 between Newbury and Reading,

J14 west of Abingdon,

J15 Oxford and

J16 west of Kidlington,

J17 junction looping above Bicester to the M40 J10 and Upper Heyford,

J18 topside of Aylesbury,

J19 below Dunstable,

J20 new junction 9a on the M1,

J21 Luton Airport,

J22 through junction 7 on the A1M below Stevenage,

J23 then making a new town at Sawbridgeworth and

J24 linking with the M11 at a new junction of 8a then back to Stanstead.

 

That will cost about £17 billion but it should keep the South East moving for another 50 years.

Are you a highways planner or QS, perchance? Otherwise you've got far too much time on your hands.

 

 

 

To be fair, any of us posting here are guilty as far as the could do better police are concerned.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Another one bites the dust. Tory Stephen Phillips quits over irreconcilable differences with the government's Brexit policy. Not clear whether he intends to stand for re-election. One for the UKIP brigade perhaps? Government majority could be reduced yet further...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37872899

[msc 18,480]

Tory Stephen Phillips

 

I'm a bit of a political geek, but who? And he's been an MP for 6 years too!

[Bibliogryphon 9,591]

He is not one who has been selected for this game but if any more follow suit I think we could be on course for an early election.

 

Which might mean Rover gets a victory.

 

Next time everyone will get 50 picks.

[Spade_Cooley 9,541]

I can't see how there's not a 2017 GE at this rate tbh.

[msc 18,480]

You'd have to be as foolish as Callaghan and Brown not to go for an early election.

[Bibliogryphon 9,591]

You'd have to be as foolish as Callaghan and Brown not to go for an early election.

 

She might decide to see how the by-elections go. Is there still time to get this one in on Dec 1st otherwise this might have to wait until the New Year?

[Bibliogryphon 9,591]

 

You'd have to be as foolish as Callaghan and Brown not to go for an early election.

 

She might decide to see how the by-elections go. Is there still time to get this one in on Dec 1st otherwise this might have to wait until the New Year?

 

 

Answering my own question theminimum time between the writ and the by-election is 21 days which gives them about a week to issue the writ.

[msc 18,480]

 

 

You'd have to be as foolish as Callaghan and Brown not to go for an early election.

 

She might decide to see how the by-elections go. Is there still time to get this one in on Dec 1st otherwise this might have to wait until the New Year?

 

 

Answering my own question theminimum time between the writ and the by-election is 21 days which gives them about a week to issue the writ.

 

 

I see no reason in not issuing the writ ASAP.

 

Though if these by-elections don't go to plan for the Tories (let's assume for the sake of argument the Lib Dems win Goldsmith's seat), then that might become Theresa May's "internal polling jitters" reason for holding off an early general election.

 

Which as any fool would tell you, would be an error.

[rockhopper penguin 2,265]

If she goes for an election now she wins. If she goes for an election in 3 years, she wins. If she calls one now the economy takes another nose dive, Brexit negotiations are stalled and she's managing a mess and has no legacy (the first two years are when you make anything happen). Unless her majority gets whittled away then she may as well hang on. And if it does get whittled away it wasn't her choice.

[msc 18,480]

As things stand, she wins in 2020. However, events...

 

Brown thought he'd have a better chance of winning in 2010. As, perhaps equally as pertinently, did Harold MacMillan in 1962 when up against Gaitskell.

[rockhopper penguin 2,265]

As things stand, she wins in 2020. However, events...

 

Brown thought he'd have a better chance of winning in 2010. As, perhaps equally as pertinently, did Harold MacMillan in 1962 when up against Gaitskell.

Er, there wasn't an election in 1962.

[Bibliogryphon 9,591]

 

As things stand, she wins in 2020. However, events...

 

Brown thought he'd have a better chance of winning in 2010. As, perhaps equally as pertinently, did Harold MacMillan in 1962 when up against Gaitskell.

Er, there wasn't an election in 1962.

 

 

I think that is the point.

[YoungWillz 21,068]

Stephen Phillips (Sleaford and North Hykeham) quits as Tory MP. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37872899

[rockhopper penguin 2,265]

 

 

As things stand, she wins in 2020. However, events...

 

Brown thought he'd have a better chance of winning in 2010. As, perhaps equally as pertinently, did Harold MacMillan in 1962 when up against Gaitskell.

Er, there wasn't an election in 1962.

 

 

I think that is the point.

 

In which case I've missed it. After a series of bad by-election results the Tories had a major reshuffle known as the night of the long knives. It helped for a while but MacMillan was eventually replaced by Douglas-Home who lost in 1964. Where's the analogy?

[Bibliogryphon 9,591]

 

 

 

As things stand, she wins in 2020. However, events...

 

Brown thought he'd have a better chance of winning in 2010. As, perhaps equally as pertinently, did Harold MacMillan in 1962 when up against Gaitskell.

Er, there wasn't an election in 1962.

 

 

I think that is the point.

 

In which case I've missed it. After a series of bad by-election results the Tories had a major reshuffle known as the night of the long knives. It helped for a while but MacMillan was eventually replaced by Douglas-Home who lost in 1964. Where's the analogy?

 

 

Gaitskill died in 63 to be replaced with the more electorally appealing Harold Wilson. If McMillan had gone up against Gaitskill in 62 he would probably have bought himself a better mandate and strengthened his hand within the party.

[rockhopper penguin 2,265]

 

 

 

 

As things stand, she wins in 2020. However, events...

 

Brown thought he'd have a better chance of winning in 2010. As, perhaps equally as pertinently, did Harold MacMillan in 1962 when up against Gaitskell.

Er, there wasn't an election in 1962.

 

 

I think that is the point.

 

In which case I've missed it. After a series of bad by-election results the Tories had a major reshuffle known as the night of the long knives. It helped for a while but MacMillan was eventually replaced by Douglas-Home who lost in 1964. Where's the analogy?

 

 

Gaitskill died in 63 to be replaced with the more electorally appealing Harold Wilson. If McMillan had gone up against Gaitskill in 62 he would probably have bought himself a better mandate and strengthened his hand within the party.

 

Ah, so you have Jeremy Corbyn on a list? You know something you're not passing on? How's Addis Ababa btw?

[Bibliogryphon 9,591]

Jeremy is 70 years old but regularly walks and cycles if he dies suddenly there will be conspiracy theories abound (cf Robin Cook). However TM cannot assume he will be leader of the Labour party in 2020.

[msc 18,480]

In 1962 (technically 1961, but within that time period), Tories felt they had longer to fix the economy as, among many issues, Gaitskell was turning into a bit of a liability for his party, in terms of electability. It wasn't expected that:

 

• the Labour leader would suddenly fall ill from lupus in 1963
• that his anointed successor would predecease him.
• that the Deputy leader would fail to be elected in this manner due to his vices and bullying nature - this was forseeable - but that Callaghan would also run, thus splitting the right of the party, and allowing a "left centrist" to sneak through.
• that someone no one trusted in the party would actually become Labour leader.
• that, to the shock of all, he was actually really good at it, and quick at learning it too.
• that, at the same time, Harold MacMilan would need to resign, due to his misdiagnosis of terminal cancer - he lived until 1986.
• that MacMillan would deliberately hobble the "best man" for the job in revenge for leaking the Night of the Long Knives.
• that the press favourite would hobble his own chances with hubris.
• that the Tory party would then elect a likeable but entirely unelectable old man in Mac's place.
• that the Defence Secretary was shagging a call girl, and this would errupt into a long lasting scandal
• that the economy would dip in 1962-3, leaving the party unwilling to go before the end of the 5th year.
• that the US President would get shot.

 

And so on.

 

A long way of making my point - events have a habit of making silly buggers out of long plans in politics. Each time in post war history a party has had an option to go to the polls early, and turned it down, they have lost office. Even when, in the case of some, they thought they had a demoralised and unelectable opposition at that time period. We can't assume the economy will be the same, or better, by then, and we can't assume Jeremy Corbyn will be leader of the opposition. His health might fail, he might get fed up with the rebels, he might find a more electable protege - or many other reasons. And his replacement might be as surprisingly good at the whole job and galvanising people, as unsuspected as Wilson was in the early 60s.

 

But in general, those who go "oh it happened before, but I can't see a whole bunch of unfortunate events happen to ME" tend to be those who suddenly find a whole bunch of unfortunate events happening to them.

[Bibliogryphon 9,591]

Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.

[msc 18,480]

And those who know history are condemned to watch idiots repeat it.

[rockhopper penguin 2,265]

In 1962 (technically 1961, but within that time period), Tories felt they had longer to fix the economy as, among many issues, Gaitskell was turning into a bit of a liability for his party, in terms of electability. It wasn't expected that:

 

• the Labour leader would suddenly fall ill from lupus in 1963
• that his anointed successor would predecease him.
• that the Deputy leader would fail to be elected in this manner due to his vices and bullying nature - this was forseeable - but that Callaghan would also run, thus splitting the right of the party, and allowing a "left centrist" to sneak through.
• that someone no one trusted in the party would actually become Labour leader.
• that, to the shock of all, he was actually really good at it, and quick at learning it too.
• that, at the same time, Harold MacMilan would need to resign, due to his misdiagnosis of terminal cancer - he lived until 1986.
• that MacMillan would deliberately hobble the "best man" for the job in revenge for leaking the Night of the Long Knives.
• that the press favourite would hobble his own chances with hubris.
• that the Tory party would then elect a likeable but entirely unelectable old man in Mac's place.
• that the Defence Secretary was shagging a call girl, and this would errupt into a long lasting scandal
• that the economy would dip in 1962-3, leaving the party unwilling to go before the end of the 5th year.
• that the US President would get shot.

 

And so on.

 

A long way of making my point - events have a habit of making silly buggers out of long plans in politics. Each time in post war history a party has had an option to go to the polls early, and turned it down, they have lost office. Even when, in the case of some, they thought they had a demoralised and unelectable opposition at that time period. We can't assume the economy will be the same, or better, by then, and we can't assume Jeremy Corbyn will be leader of the opposition. His health might fail, he might get fed up with the rebels, he might find a more electable protege - or many other reasons. And his replacement might be as surprisingly good at the whole job and galvanising people, as unsuspected as Wilson was in the early 60s.

 

But in general, those who go "oh it happened before, but I can't see a whole bunch of unfortunate events happen to ME" tend to be those who suddenly find a whole bunch of unfortunate events happening to them.

An excellent analysis i'll grant you but it's still a bit of a Kismet theory. The whole purpose of the fixed term Parliament which the Tories supported was to mitigate against political opportunism.May has gone past the 'I'm a new leader so we should have an election' phase. She has to wait. Even if JC snuffs it the Labour Party rules will ensure another Corbynista get in.

[rockhopper penguin 2,265]

History is bunk.