One Month Of Hat-Dothing

[paulh85 101]

its about time one of the other 40 chosen ones surrendered their mortal rights and succumbed to the grim reaper.

 

The front page does get awfully stale with no deaths to write about.

 

Perhaps, the powers-that-be could add a "notable deaths" rolling section on the side? just to keep my morbid interest?

[RadGuy 1,614]

I don't really agree on the notable deaths section thingy, but I do agree that we should have gotten another hit by now.

 

A few weeks ago on the "What do you think of the 2015 list" thread, me and some others (can't remember if you did too) made our predictions about how many hits we'll have this year, who they will be, and what dates they will die.

 

I predicted that we'd get 16 hits (Valerie Harper, Zsa Zsa Gabor, Martin Crowe, Clive James, Nancy Reagan, Bhumibol Adulyadej + the 10 dead already), and that doesn't seem very likely now that it's September, and also that a lot of these people don't seem as ill as I think they are.

 

I did predict the 11th hit to be on September 19th, but I still secretly hoped and expected there to be 1-2 more hits in August. So now I'm not so sure about even tying the record.

[msc 18,476]

Relax. There's still near four months left.

 

After all, in the 21st Century, 50 Deathlist hits (a whole 28% of the total since 2000) have arrived in the last four months of the year.

[Sean 6,330]

Lets not forget DL 2013 when we had 4 hits in December.Lets face it the list still has a lot of people in shite health and a lot of very old people so we should get a few more. Crowe will probably go soon as he has been in hospice care for at least 6 weeks.

[RadGuy 1,614]

Yeah, I guess you're right. Crowe will probably go soon. I wonder if he'll see his birthday on the 22nd.

[Deathray 2,940]

Relax. There's still near four months left.

 

After all, in the 21st Century, 50 Deathlist hits (a whole 28% of the total since 2000) have arrived in the last four months of the year.

That's actually a cause for concern. It shows that the last third of the year produces less than a third of the years hits in average.

[maryportfuncity 10,651]

 

Relax. There's still near four months left.

 

After all, in the 21st Century, 50 Deathlist hits (a whole 28% of the total since 2000) have arrived in the last four months of the year.

That's actually a cause for concern. It shows that the last third of the year produces less than a third of the years hits in average.

 

 

 

Well, not really. We tend to have good information on the nearly-deceased at the start ofthe year so the nailed-on likes of Little Jimmy Dickens were picked and gone in days. So, it's fairly good to get nearly 30% in the last quarter because these are often the most marginal picks in the previous December.

[Deathray 2,940]

 

 

Relax. There's still near four months left.

 

After all, in the 21st Century, 50 Deathlist hits (a whole 28% of the total since 2000) have arrived in the last four months of the year.

That's actually a cause for concern. It shows that the last third of the year produces less than a third of the years hits in average.

 

 

 

Well, not really. We tend to have good information on the nearly-deceased at the start ofthe year so the nailed-on likes of Little Jimmy Dickens were picked and gone in days. So, it's fairly good to get nearly 30% in the last quarter because these are often the most marginal picks in the previous December.

 

 

I'm not saying it's not good just in terms of maths it's a cause of concern for this year. The record is 14.

 

In order to reach that we need 4 hits in the next 4 months.

 

In 66% of the year we have achieved ten hits.

 

On the basis that 28% of the years hits will happen in the last 4 months we can say that 10 is 72% of the years hits. That means we can expect 3.88 (28% on the aforementioned basis) hits in the rest of the year. The best case scenario is we equal the record?

 

Obviously chance comes into play and we still have a realistic chance of beating the record, but in all probability we won't.

[The Mad Hatter 1,092]

I just realized all the recent stops are because of people who wear hats. We most ban hatted people form the deathlist 5ever

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Six more weeks and Crowe will push up daisies, as I predicted. And you'll be at ease again for another month.

Put me down for US Thanksgiving Day for Carol Channing though she's not on DL. Just some lagniappe for you DLers. I will be giving thanks when she goes.

SC