Derby Dead Pool 2016

[Sir Creep 7,070]

moved from the Deathrace thread...

 

 

 

 

 

Sir Creep, your man with the cancer (Adam Something) from that band we spoke of a few weeks ago - no press at all in the UK so not going to be a DDP hit, but would probably be worth Deathrace points, I'm sure of it.

 

Us yanks clearly at a disadvantage when it comes to having a clue who might obit as we approach 'fringeness' (new word). He may not obit even here, but Rolling Stone would give a mention and there's that.

*That's the championship winning deceased footballer and not the famous singer-songwriter, before any smart alecs reply.

 

Smart alecs? HERE?!

It can be tricky for us too, sometimes! Best bet is to do a Google search for the person. You can do searches for websites and news per country, and if a person shows up as mentioned in the Mail/BBC/Express/Guardian/Sun/Times /Channel 4/ITV/Sky/Reuters/Independent within the last few years (doesn't need to be about their ill health either) then they are 95% certain of a qualifying obit when they go. It's the folk mentioned in the regionals - usually low level politicians - who might not make the major papers, because it depends on whats happening in the world. Jean Dore, shockingly, got a British obit because it was a very quiet week - quite often, mayors of large British cities go without obits.

 

 

When it comes to Yank names, well: Mario Cuomo got an obit easily, so anyone more famous than him is no bother. I'd expect nearly all living Senators or notable congress types to obit here. When you get to the individual state Houses rather than national level, the person needs to be fairly noteworthy for one reason or another. Keith Farnham will probably obit because the Daily Mail have noticed Farnham's scumbaggery, but if one of his colleagues gets terminal cancer next week, I doubt we'll hear about it, except on this forum.

 

 

Sports wise, the major US sports all seem fairly popular here - I'd think Baseball was the least, and John Farrell got BBC coverage for his ill health. It's the college football system and its counterparts you'd have trouble with, unless there's a big press story like with Joe Paterno.

 

 

Actors and the like are more of an international currency so you shouldn't have any trouble with them. If a band had any hit over here, at any point, they'll get obits. Even Pauly Fuemana got one. How bizzare.

 

 

The rest is gut feeling, really.

 

 

Mind you, fortune favours the brave. Spade's won two DDP's in a row (and isn't out of the race yet for his third in a row) and does he stop to go "Maybe Andrew Millwall wont obit?" No, he went for it, and nabbed the obit, and it turned out to be a title winning risk. The Living End (DDT) has won the title banking on obits for Jim Stynes, Anthonia Onhoua, Jock Hobbs, etc. Though, given DDT actually is the Grim Reaper...

Why was it shocking for Dore to obit? Canada part of the U.K. Cloak am I correct? And Montreal perhaps its most revered city? That's a gimme. I would expect every politician worth a piss from Australia or Canada to obit or they should tear the Union Jack from their flag (well, Canucks have kinda). It's not exactly USA-Guam relationship we are talking about.

 

I've never heard of the late Pauly FuemenA lol.

 

I noticed a couple folks went with Rep. John Dingle from my former home state of Michigan and that surprised me some, what with 'obitability' a touchstone, though I think he was the 'longest serving Representative' so that's the ticket That said, he's rolling on into 2016.

 

As I said earlier, picking folks who will die is more important than those who will obit, cuz you know who won't obit? The living.

SC

[CaptainChorizo 1,977]

Basically anyone who has served a significant time in the Us House will get a required obit. It's State Senators,and Mayors outside of say La,Ny,Chicago who you should avoid unless they are involved in some kind of sex scandal that will garner them Daily Mail interest. Mainly though if you are unsure of someones obitableness just google their name and type UK after it and if they were mentioned at some point in an article by daily mail,guardian,bbc,mirror etc then they will safely get an obit.

[Going Underground 74]

Thanks TMIB. Great work as always sir.

 

I am pretty sure like me you are a big Liverpool fan so I'd just like to say

 

2016 is going to be Our year!

 

(In reality the best we can both hope for is top 6 )

[Spade_Cooley 9,515]

While my main advice to those looking to join the likes of myself and DDT in the hall of fame would be to take risks, it is worth noticing how this year's top 10 could contain a grand total of one unique hit.

 

Then again, if I'd trusted my instincts that Dr Beverly Hall would get a Reuters obituary (she even got a Guardian one in the end) I'd be on for a three-peat this year, so just ignore me.

[DevonDeathTrip 2,358]

As I've mentioned before, picking an Irish person, a folk/country musician, a criminal and a religious leader always works well for me.

 

The other sixteen names will have to wait until Boxing Day evening. when I shall complete my annual ritual of taking a small amount of peyote, before getting drunk - and I mean really drunk - on whatever spirits I can lay my hands on and then waiting for the visions of who is going to die next year to appear before me. That usually does the trick.

 

I suffer for my art.

[Magere Hein 1,400]

As I've mentioned before, picking an Irish person, a folk/country musician, a criminal and a religious leader always works well for me.

 

All in one person?

[gcreptile 10,964]

 

As I've mentioned before, picking an Irish person, a folk/country musician, a criminal and a religious leader always works well for me.

 

All in one person?

 

Aren't categories 1 and 3 one and the same? And isn't every Irish person also a bit of a folk musician?

 

I guess the best guess for all of this is Bono.

[Death Impends 7,957]

Basically anyone who has served a significant time in the Us House will get a required obit. It's State Senators,and Mayors outside of say La,Ny,Chicago who you should avoid unless they are involved in some kind of sex scandal that will garner them Daily Mail interest. Mainly though if you are unsure of someones obitableness just google their name and type UK after it and if they were mentioned at some point in an article by daily mail,guardian,bbc,mirror etc then they will safely get an obit.

 

I tend to rank US politicians as follows. If their most notable position was:

 

President: If you need to ask whether or not they'll obit, you shouldn't be competing in any dead pool!

Vice President, any major-party candidate for president or VP: Completely guaranteed to obit.

Cabinet member: Vast vast majority, if not all, obitworthy. Certainly there are positions more notable than others, Secretaries of State will be BBC-worthy, Agriculture not quite.

Senator: If they served a sufficient time (say at least 20 years) Reuters UK and Mail obits are near assured. Mail naturally will capture more than Reuters.

Congressman/woman: There's more of them, so trickier than senators are. Again, expect the longer-serving ones to be more likely to benefit from Reuters/Mail shouts. Dingell, since he was mentioned, I think would nab much more given his extraordinary length of time served. I'd also say anyone incumbent who dies would be a fair bet to get something as well, ditto going to senators.

Governor: Some states, ie NY or California, pretty much guarantee an obit. Beyond that length of term, and significance to their state, will often be a deciding factor. This is definitely a field that has benefited from the Mail, as since it started US hit chasing I've seen quite a few get shouts from there and only there.

Mayor: Like CC mentioned it's only the major cities, for the most part. Additional factors may apply - Boston is a big enough city that I think its mayors would obtain an obit either way, but Tom Menino left office quite recently at the time of his death, on top of being the longest-serving mayor in the city's history, so that pushed him to get a BBC mention.

Anything below that: Pretty much has to be peculiar circumstances regarding them, ie the Keith Farnham scenario mentioned earlier.

[Deathray 2,940]

Thanks TMIB. Great work as always sir.

 

I am pretty sure like me you are a big Liverpool fan so I'd just like to say

 

2016 is going to be Our year!

 

(In reality the best we can both hope for is top 6 )

 

Not getting beaten 2-0 by a team in the relegation zone would be a good start!

 

TMIB - Is sending teams by PM still okay?

[msc 18,437]

An added interest to the 2016 DDP - The Living End is 5 hits off a full century of hits. Don't know if that's ever been done before.

 

For the record, providing my maths aren't as wonky as ever, Tommy Jefferson has 30 already, three years in. Spade and the DQSP are on 52.

 

Other recurring teams - Stab in the Darks on 77, Drunkasaskunks on 78, Windsors on 57. The Man In Black's They're Dead You Know needs one more hit to reach sixty. Stardust on 43.

 

Perennial also rans Pan Breed are on 22!

[Handrejka 1,903]

 

Actually, I don't think I'll compete in the main competition either. I haven't really looked at what I'd have and can't be bothered with the research and stuff, more on running the pool. Might do a theme team though...

 

I think that's what I'm going to do. I was going to retire completely but I want to have some presence for the 20th anniversary.

 

 

I've popped my theme team in.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Ok so it appears the goal is to have a handful of obvious names but otherwise obtuse names giving you solo hits. Or am I wrong? Lol.

I'm just trying to figure out who is winning and why. Solo hits seem like such minimal bonus points to be chasing but everyone brags about solos so I'm missing something.

 

Anyway today is the day I rank some names and we shall start whittling down from there. I'm most certain most of mine won't obit but I'm ok with that. I'm ill-equipped to discover obscure UK politicians or actors or summat that will obit I'll just have to tip my cap to y'all for getting those people and I'll dredge up a few of my own here in Murica and cross my fingers.

 

SC

[msc 18,437]

The key is to pick people who will die. People can over think the unique pick thing, speaking as someone who has done just that.

[gcreptile 10,964]

The key is to pick people who will die. People can over think the unique pick thing, speaking as someone who has done just that.

True. Pick 20 nonagenarians who actually die and you're most likely winning. Even better, pick 19 nonagenarians who die, plus the younger celebrity with terminal cancer already in hospice, barely surviving the previous year etc... and make them your joker. That's 110+ points guaranteed.

[msc 18,437]

 

The key is to pick people who will die. People can over think the unique pick thing, speaking as someone who has done just that.

True. Pick 20 nonagenarians who actually die and you're most likely winning. Even better, pick 19 nonagenarians who die, plus the younger celebrity with terminal cancer already in hospice, barely surviving the previous year etc... and make them your joker. That's 110+ points guaranteed.

 

 

Rotten Ali's probably got stats somewhere about the likelihood of a DDP team scoring a Perfect 20, but even then, DQSP and The Living End have both posted winning scores that would get beyond the 20 nonagenerians dying team.

[gcreptile 10,964]

 

 

The key is to pick people who will die. People can over think the unique pick thing, speaking as someone who has done just that.

True. Pick 20 nonagenarians who actually die and you're most likely winning. Even better, pick 19 nonagenarians who die, plus the younger celebrity with terminal cancer already in hospice, barely surviving the previous year etc... and make them your joker. That's 110+ points guaranteed.

 

 

Rotten Ali's probably got stats somewhere about the likelihood of a DDP team scoring a Perfect 20, but even then, DQSP and The Living End have both posted winning scores that would get beyond the 20 nonagenerians dying team.

 

Essentially true, the new scoring system has existed since 2007, so 9 competitions, and you'd only have won in 3 of them with that score (2010, 2012, and as it stands now, 2015). On the other hand, you would never have been worse than 2nd. And there will always be the one younger sure goner that is your joker. Also, with 20 deaths, there is a higher chance of a death on the 13th. A two-thirds chance even (Since there's no inherent reason in any certain date being more fatal than others, except for changes in inheritance law, the chance is 20 hits out of 28/29/30/31 days). So you're more likely to end up with 108 than with 105 points (2/3rds squared chance 0,4356 chance of 111 pts), which also gives you the win in 2014 and 2009, the tie in 2008. And there's the marginal higher chance of someone dying on their birthday, simply because you have more hits than you would have with a riskier strategy. And the winner in 2007 had 109 points. And in the case of a tie, the number of hits decides. So the strategy is a statistical winner.

Of course, this requires that the probability of the nonagenarian dying within that year is 100%. A tough proposition, and under that 100% chance, younger and riskier picks might turn out to be the better picks.

 

Edit: Maybe the Man in Black knows how many picks have died on the 13th. Maybe people actively try to avoid that date of their death, I could imagine. But it's not against statistics that the current leader in hits (not points) has a "died on the 13th" bonus with John McCabe.

[Spade_Cooley 9,515]

I'd hazard a guess, if someone wants to do the maths, that the average age of hits among top ten teams is on an increasingly downward trend?

[DevonDeathTrip 2,358]

I hope TMIB gives some consideration to sub-contracting the stats analysis next year. There's loads of people on DL who just love crunching the numbers and I'd really like to see an updated leaderboard for total hits, total points, etc

[msc 18,437]

I hope TMIB gives some consideration to sub-contracting the stats analysis next year. There's loads of people on DL who just love crunching the numbers and I'd really like to see an updated leaderboard for total hits, total points, etc

 

You are 5 hits off your 100th death for team Living End. We should run a poll in January on who will be Mr (or Mrs) 100th.

 

The rest of the stats can wait till next year, for fear of a Clive Derby-Lewis going and ruining them.

[Rotten Ali 600]

Too tricky to try and pick a team of old and ill coffin Dodgers. Far too many see out the year. Best way is list only people with the "he's only got 6 months to live" prognosis.

[Toast 16,131]

Is it too late to suggest the introduction of another bonus?

 

Since 2009, when I scored with Dai Llewellyn and Patrick McGoohan on the same day (ooer missus) I've felt that a deadly double ought to be worth an extra point or two. Or is that greedy? Those two gents did bring me lucky 13 bonuses, so that softened the blow.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Query: anyone know who scored the most DDP points ever upon their death? I was thinking you get a young chap like a Bianchi but he'd have to be a solo hit and die on the 13th, and you had the cajones to make him your Joker.... As if. But wondered how close anyone's gotten to that '29' in cribbage, as it were.

SC

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Too tricky to try and pick a team of old and ill coffin Dodgers. Far too many see out the year. Best way is list only people with the "he's only got 6 months to live" prognosis.

I agree but those are precious few to come by. Google '6 months to live' you won't get more than 6-7 names unless you are one to bore down to the 71st page of returns from your search.

SC

[Spade_Cooley 9,515]

The other, oft-overlooked aspect of DDP success is having a specific field of interest that you have the inside track in. It wouldn't be a DQSP side without me fielding some old journo whose stage IV cancer is well-known amongst NUJ members but unpublished online. Similarly, The Living End's always been able to divine the upcoming mortality of people involved in the world of motorsport.

[msc 18,437]

Speaking of specific fields of interest, Nick Bockwinkel didn't seem to get a qualifying obit. Unless...do mentions on Sky Sports TV programming (ie, WWE RAW) count? I didn't pick him as I thought he'd last till January, now it looks like I avoided my first "no obit" issue.