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Derby Dead Pool 2016

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So, who will win?

1. The Living End 114 (12 dead) (Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, Bonnie Brown, Vera Caslavska, Errol Christie, Peter Esterhazy, Thomas Fekete, Gary Haggarty, Mary Lucas)
2. Thomas Jefferson Survives 111 (12 dead) (Bonnie Brown, Errol Christie, Peter Esterhazy, Sharon Jones, Bruce Langhorne, Yoshiro Nakamatsu, John Wicks (U), Suzanne Wright (U))
3. Golden Slumbers 110 (12 dead) (Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, Kate Granger, Goran Hadžic, Thomas W. Libous, Mary Lucas, Majestik Magnificent (U), Yoshiro Nakamatsu, Joost van der Westhuizen)
4. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals 109 (12 dead) (Errol Christie, Michel Delpech (waiting for obit), Abdul Sattar Edhi, Peter Esterhazy, Thomas Fekete, Kate Granger, Luke Halpin (U), Rowena Kincaid)
5. Pan Breed 104 (11 dead) (Bonnie Brown, Keith Farnham, Kate Granger, Rowena Kincaid, Steve LaTourette, Geoffrey James Robinson, Mark Sims, Nobby Stiles, Joost van der Westhuizen)
6. Heading Nowhere 103 (10 dead) (Bonnie Brown, Vera Ceslavska, Paul Cox, Peter Esterhazy, Kate Granger, Steve LaTourette, Yoshiro Nakamatsu, Terri Roberts, Ian St. John, Seijun Suzuki (U))
7. Cancerous Hatred 99 (9 dead) (Muhammad Ali, Anthony Booth, Jimmy Carter, Marian Cisovsky (U), Keith Farnham, Kate Granger, Valerie Harper, Gino Odijck, Fernando Ricksen, Geoffrey James Robinson, Joost van der Westhuizen)
8. Poochie Died On The Way Back To His Home Planet 93 (10 dead) (John Bain, Bonnie Brown, Kate Granger, Kristin Hallenga, Clive James, Bruce Langhorne, Jose Manuel Mourinho Felix, Miriam Defensor Santiago, Ian St. John, Joost van der Westhuizen)
9. Dead AS A Doornail 91 (9 dead) (John Bain, Tommy Chong, Pate Frates, Paul Gascoigne, Val Kilmer, John McGuinness (U), Gino Odijck, Fernando Ricksen, Joost van der Westhuizen, Lars Vilks (U), John Wetton)
10. Cancel My Appointments 86 (8 dead) (Tony Adamowicz, John Bain, Barbara Barrie, John Dingell (U), "Superstar" Billy Graham, Jeanne Little, Emma Morano-Martinuzzi, Yoshiro Nakamatsu, Richard Arvine Overton, Sharon Percy Rockefeller (U), Peter Sarstedt, Houston Smith)
10. Crossing The Styx 86 (9 dead) (Tony Adamowicz, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, Tony Booth, Glen Campbell, Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, Thorbjörn Fälldin (U), Kate Granger, Goran Hadžic, Joao Havelange, Nobby Stiles, Ian St. John)
10. Deceased Hose 86 (10 dead) (Caroline Aherne, John Bain, Jimmy Carter, Abdul Satter Edhi, Jannes Eiselen, Peter Esterhazy, Susan Gubar (U), John Hurt, Lynne Stewart, Desmond Tutu),
13. DDP Tofoa 83 (9 dead) (Tony Adamowicz, Muhammad Ali, Jimmy Carter, Keith Farnham, Helen Fawkes, Zsa Zsa Gabor, Kate Granger, Clive James, Helmut Kohl, Randy Romero, Joost van der Westhuizen)
14. The Love Boat 80 (8 dead) (Bonnie Brown, Vera Caslavska, Errol Christie, Paul Cox, Michel Delpech (waiting for obit), Peter Esterhazy, Gary Haggarty, Rowena Kincaid, Yoshiro Nakamatsu, Geoffrey James Robinson, Jockie Storrar, Andrew Yeaman (U))
I'll give my chances to win this year:
  1. The Living End 22%
  2. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals 18%
  3. Golden Slumbers 17%
  4. Thomas Jefferson Survives 16.5%
  5. Heading Nowhere 10%
  6. Cancerous Hatred 6%
  7. Pan Breed 5.5%
  8. DDP Tofoa 2.5%
  9. Poochie Died On The Way Back To His Home Planet 1%
  10. Cancel My Appointments 0.60%
  11. Dead As A Doornail 0.45%
  12. Crossing The Styx 0.25%
  13. Deceased Hose 0.10%
  14. The Love Boat 0.09%
  15. Someone else 0.01%
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First quarterly analysis of the top twenty's survivors.

 

Spoiler tagged for length.

 

 

 

 

Instead of taking each team one at a time, I decided to list every surviving celeb from teams currently in the top 20 in alphabetical order, and have a guess on the probability of their death before January 1st 2017.

 

  1. Tony Adamowicz (3) – Seemingly obscure racing driver with stage 4 brain cancer. The diagnosis would see him do well to reach January, but an obit might be another matter. POSSIBLE 7/10
  2. Bhumibol Adulyadej (2) – By this point, he’s been ailing since Decca turned down the Beatles. Likely to be around in another year, with more minor but accumulative ailments. 3/10
  3. Caroline Aherne (3) – Ricky Tomlinson said she was in remission, which might be why so few went for her in the DDP. Of course, then she had lung cancer, and now, she is said to be battling throat cancer. Spread, or is she just doing the world tour of major cancers? Aherne was a bad pick in 2015, she might be a bad miss in 2016, time will tell. POSSIBLE 6/10
  4. George Alagiah – In full remission (from stage 4 bowel cancer!) as of February, this might be a wishful thinking one in 2016. NO. 3/10
  5. Muhammad Ali (3) – Now with sweepstake on Deathlist forums, possibly prematurely. 4/10
  6. John Bain (5) – Certainly dying, the only question is 2016 or 2017. A few brave souls plumped early, they might get dividends yet. 50/50, 5/10
  7. Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi (2) – Too hard to tell with terrorists nowadays.
  8. Gordon Banks – When you’ve only got one kidney, and its got cancer in it, it’s not exactly good news. Recently featured in the “sad last days” team of 1966 stuff that was doing the rounds. 5/10
  9. Barbara Barrie – She was treated for cancer in the 90s, I might be missing a return. 5/10
  10. Daisy Berkowitz (3) – Has had Stage IV colon cancer for three years. Becoming part of the furniture of the DDP. 6/10
  11. Tony Booth (4) – Said to have greatly deteriorated in the last year. Add to that post stroke issues, emphysema, and heart failure, and Booth is going to be a much more popular DDP figure in 2017...if he lives. 8/10
  12. Ian Brady (2) – Whinges a lot. Doesn’t die. 1/10
  13. Hans Breukhoven (U) – Who? I assume he has cancer, but I can’t find anything in English.
  14. Bonnie Brown (7) – Said to be in remission. 1/10
  15. Glen Campbell (2) – In the end stages of Alzheimers. 8/10
  16. Vivian Campbell – Treating third dose of Hodgkin’s with trial drug. 5/10
  17. Jimmy Carter (3) – In remission, could go via age. 4/10
  18. Diana Serra Cary – Old. 3/10
  19. Vera Caslavska (3) – Pancreatic cancer, though underwent extensive surgery as it was caught early. 5/10
  20. Fidel Castro – 2/10
  21. Tommy Chong (3) – Treatable cancer. 2/10
  22. Errol Christie (5) – If lung cancer has moved into his bones as rumoured elsewhere. 9.5/10
  23. Carlo Ciampi – Old. 3/10
  24. Marian Cisovsky (U) – A great spot (Czech footballer with ALS) but diagnosed c 2014, so 2016 feels a bit early. Might have wanted to sit on this a year, lots of players will be nicking it next year. 7/10
  25. Paul Cox (3) - Outlived his own liver cancer relapse life expectancy. 8/10
  26. Rick Davies – Aggressive multiple myeloma, but feels more like a 2017 pick. 7/10
  27. Michel Delpech (2) – DEAD – 10/10 for dead, 7/10 for obit showing up now.
  28. Clive Derby-Lewis – Only 1/20 picked him? The DDP are bored with the South African Seselj by now, and he was out of jail and doing well at Christmas. 4/10
  29. Colin Dexter – Just picked on age, I assume. 3/10
  30. Christy Dignam – Another fall from grace. In November, I thought at least half the top twenty would have Dignam, then he seemed to improve. 5/10
  31. John Dingell (U) – Old? 4/10
  32. Abdul Sattar Edhi (2) – In frail health. Could go tomorrow, could go in five years. 7/10 (Odds improved by being a DQSP pick)
  33. Jannes Eiselen – Brain cancer. 7/10
  34. Peter Esterhazy (7) – No real news. 6/10
  35. Thorbjorn Falldin (U) – Using my Google translate fu, he was ill in December, is 90, and missed some big celebrations the other week due to ill health. 7/10
  36. Keith Farnham (4) – Ever get the feeling you’ve fallen for a Clive Derby-Lewis Gambit? 1/10
  37. Helen Fawkes - Cancer is back, right when nearly everyone dropped her for a year. They still seem to think they can add time with chemo though. 5/10
  38. Thomas Fekete (2) – Will he be saying fekete to life? He sounded far healthier in December than he does now, but he never did tell anyone he was given “three months” until April, the cheat. 8/10
  39. Pete Frates – Next year is his 5th year. 7/10
  40. Zsa Zsa Gabor (2) – Really old and frail. 3/10
  41. Paul Gascoigne (2) – Maybe next decade. 1/10
  42. Rev Billy Graham – Don’t trust him. 2/10
  43. Sueprstar Billy Graham – Don’t trust him either. 1/10.
  44. Kate Granger (10) – A tough one. She does have a cancer with 0% survival rate of 5 years (see July 2016), and it has spread to her liver, lungs and other places. However, she has outlasted expectations for years now. 9/10.
  45. Susan Gubar (U) - Cancer. 5/10
  46. Goran Hadzic (3) – Claims to have brain cancer. Call me sceptical. 2/10
  47. Gary Haggarty (2) – Could be this years Edwin Drummond, except he does exist. 3/10
  48. Kristin Hallenga (3) – She’s had cancer for years, is young, and is still active. 4/10
  49. Luke Halpin (U) – If the GoFundMe is legit, he’s screwed. 8/10
  50. Valerie Harper (4) – Dying in slow motion. 6/10
  51. Stephen Hawking – Who knows after someone has outlived their own life expectancy by 50 years? 4/10
  52. Joao Havelange (2) – Old. Frail. 6/10
  53. John Hurt (3) – Seems to have been picked by those waiting for a relapse. 2/10 currently.
  54. Clive James (4) – Questionable even for 2017 right now. 1/10
  55. Sharon Jones – There is a reason so few went for her, despite a pancreatic cancer relapse. 4/10
  56. Susannah Mushatt Jones – Really old. 8/10
  57. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – Big name pick. 2/10
  58. Rowena Kincaid (3) – Untreatable cancer spreading quickly. 9.5/10
  59. Val Kilmer (2) – Wild mass guessing syndrome. 0/10
  60. Helmut Kohl – Frail, but has hung on much longer than expected, so probably wasn’t as ill as supposed in the first place. 3/10
  61. Bruce Langhorne (2) – In hospice care. 9.5/10
  62. Steve Latourette (2) – He had advanced pancreatic cancer a year ago, but doesn’t appear to have slowed down yet. 4/10
  63. Thomas W Libous – Avoided jail due to terminal prostate cancer which spread to the lungs and bones. The Feds certainly think he’s a goner. 8/10
  64. Jeanne Little – Frail. 6/10
  65. Mary Lucas (2) – Terminally ill. 8/10
  66. Tony MacAlpine- Been given the green light to return to touring. 3/10
  67. Majestik Magnificent (U) – DEAD – 10/10 for actually being dead, 1/10 chance for getting an obit for an obscure clown.
  68. Willie Mays – Frail. 3/10
  69. John McGuinness (U) – This is a wishful thinking pick, right? 1/10
  70. Emma Morano-Martinuzzi – Really old. 8/10
  71. Jose Mourinho Sr (U) – Was meant to be on mend in December. 3/10
  72. Bryan Murray – Cancer. 5/10
  73. Yoshiro Nakamatsu (6) – Everyone loves Dr Nakamats, seemingly. Not entirely convinced he’s actually ill, to be honest, surviving with cancer would just fit his whole gimmick. 3/10
  74. Gino Odjick (2) – Doctors gave him 2/3 years last year as “worst case scenario”. 2/10
  75. Richard Overton (U) – Another really old person. 7/10
  76. Nicanor Parra (U) – Really old person. 6/10
  77. Sumner Redstone – Declining health. 6/10
  78. Fernando Ricksen (3) – Swift acting ALS – should make 2017 but you never know. 6/10
  79. Terri Roberts – Terminally ill. 7/10
  80. Bishop Geoffrey Robinson (3) – Told people his terminal cancer was “in check” in December. Wish I’d seen that at the time. 3/10
  81. Sharon Rockefeller (U) – Metastasised cancer in the bones. 9/10
  82. Randy Romero (2) – Sounded a good pick in 2015. Dodgy obit pick though. 6/10
  83. Sophie Sabbage (U) – Seeme a great choice – published writer with stage IV lung/brain/bone cancer – but she’s still presenting courses. 5/10
  84. Ian St John (5) – Bladder cancer, so bladder and prostate removed. Now bladder cancer which spread into the bone marrow, so chemo. Now looking for a drug trial. 9/10
  85. Peter Sarstedt - A top pick for 2017 with PSP. Sir Creep went early. Fortune favours the brave, perhaps. 7/10
  86. Miriam Defensor Santiago (2) – Still working. 3/10
  87. Dr Mark Sims - Cancer spread, starting to become resistant to drugs. 9/10
  88. Huston Smith – Old guy with chronic old guy ill health. 4/10
  89. Lynne Stewart (3) – Sceptical. 2/10
  90. Nobby Stiles (3) – “Gravely ill” said the papers. Little updates since. 6/10
  91. Jackie Storrar – That album is about ready to go out. 5/10
  92. Seijun Suzuki (U) – Old. 6/10
  93. Desmond Tutu – Treatable cancer. 2/10
  94. Joost Van der Westhuizen (10) - Very ill with ALS, but undergoing experimental treatment. 5/10
  95. Lars Vilks (U) – 2/10
  96. John Wetton – 6-10
  97. John Wicks (U) – Pancreatic cancer.7/10
  98. Suzanne Wright (U) – Still working despite pancreatic cancer. 7/10
  99. Andrew Yeaman (U) – Horrid child abuser. Has pancreatic cancer. 7/10, but hopefully 10/10.

 

 

 

That took much longer than expected.

 

 

 

 

With all that, if we take those I rate as having 7/10 chances of dying or higher, and add them to the people above's current tally:

 

  1. DQSP - Christie, Delpech, Edhi, Fekete, Granger, Halpin, Kincaid = 172
  2. The Living End – Christie, Fekete, Lucas = c. 144
  3. *Tomas Jefferson Survives - Christie, Langhorne, Wicks*, Wright* = c.143 (ages guessed)
  4. Golden Slumbers – Granger, Libous, Lucas – 137
  5. Pan Breed – Granger, Kincaid, Sims= 136
  6. Heading nowhere – Cox, Granger, Roberts, St John = 135
  7. Crossing the Styx – Adamowicz, Booth, Campbell, Falldin, Granger, St John = 131
  8. Poochie – Bain, Granger, Langhorne, St John = 127
  9. The Love Boat – Christie, Cox, Delpech, Kincaid, Yeaman = 124
  10. Cancel My Appointments - Adamowicz, Bain, Morano, Rockefeller, Sarstedt = 123
  11. Cancerous Hatred - Booth, Granger, = 115
  12. Deceased Hose – Bain, Edhi, Eiselen = 112
  13. Dead as a Doornail - Bain, Frates = 111
  14. DDP Tofoa – Adamowicz, Granger = 100

 

And so Spade remains the favourite for me (he just has too much firepower in there), with Tommy Jefferson Survives as 2nd favourites. DDT for 3rd. Golden Slumbers, Heading Nowhere and Crossing the Styx reliant on luck.

 

I could have said that without looking into it, really.

 

I do like that all of the top ten have bombs waiting to go off though, which, while unpredictable, could change everything if they went off. I'm thinking of Joost, Haggarty, Sharon Jones, etc.

 

I get it, I'm a sad bastard. And Jenny Diski dying means I couldn't get to use my "don't be fooled by the tweets that she's got, she's still, she's still Jenny from the block" line. Which was shit, but still.

 

 

 

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A++ analysis. B/c I'm feeling nice, I'll share that Hans Breukhoven is a pancreatic case (though an obit would be a tad astonishing, to put it nicely), and Barbara Barrie has a form of pulmonary fibrosis.

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Dead As A Doornail 0.45%

so-youre-telling-me-theres-a-chance.gif

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snipped

 

As I look at this is bet a shilling that neither '8 Teamers' (Marks/Diski) drop dead at all.

SC

FAO Sir Creep...

 

 

You were saying?

 

 

 

I've just passed the 100 points mark in the DDP for the first time ever. :o

They're both on my Shadow List, numbnuts, and Diski on my DDP. YOU were saying?

SC

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snipped

As I look at this is bet a shilling that neither '8 Teamers' (Marks/Diski) drop dead at all.

SC

FAO Sir Creep...

 

 

You were saying?

 

 

 

I've just passed the 100 points mark in the DDP for the first time ever. :o

They're both on my Shadow List, numbnuts, and Diski on my DDP. YOU were saying?

SC

 

 

That you were very loud about neither (in particularly Marks, but Diski above too) dying, and both are gone before May.

 

It raises a chuckle regardless of however many pools you actually had them in.

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For DQSP I'm expecting both Christie and Fekete dead within six weeks tbh. Granger and Kincaid by the year end. Edhi is a toss-up but every interview I've seen with him recent he hasn't been able to get out of bed for, so if he doesn't get the Nobel Peace Prize this year he may just go "fuck it" and die.

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Yes, yes picking Majestik Magnificent was an unfamothably stupid decision motivated by a blind desire to shoe-horn one 'inspired' unique pick into my team of everyman picks.

 

Normally I'd put quite a lot of research into my team but a very busy December left me scrambling to put a team together. With that in mind I'm shocked by my current position and I'm not sure what to take from it...maybe as Homer says 'the lesson is never try'.

 

I'm also kicking myself over the other daft pick I made in Tom Libous who is seemingly fine, especially because I swapped him for Hassan Asif.

 

On balance, looking at the remaining picks, I have next to no chance of winning from here but for now it's nice to be up there.

 

What mighta been...

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Good to see you about, Bert! The Majestik was a bust, but I'm sure far more random picks have gained obits in the past, and given the Mail this year, it was unlucky they didn't go for it with the Jackson link. But if they haven't by now...

 

Still, lots of time to be played yet, in general.

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From latest update: "country singer Merle Haggard has died. Haggard was one of the famed 'Outlaw' country singers along with the likes of Willie Nelson and Waylon Jennings..."....

 

I'd like "Forgetting About Kris Kristofferson" for $200, Alec.

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From latest update: "country singer Merle Haggard has died. Haggard was one of the famed 'Outlaw' country singers along with the likes of Willie Nelson and Waylon Jennings..."....

I'd like "Forgetting About Kris Kristofferson" for $200, Alec.

I'd like quiz show hosts for $200 please Alex.
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As I'm passing by....

 

I don't think I'm going to win the DDP this year, but by being in front just for a short time, that means I've now led the DDP in seven out of the last nine years - 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2016 - which is a record I think might take some beating.

 

I don't think the high total of A list celebs carking it has much to do with the DDP death toll; we're all just getting better at it.

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Margot Honecker being reported dead by wiki although the source is in Spanish.

 

Unique hit for someone.

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Margot Honecker being reported dead by wiki although the source is in Spanish.

 

Unique hit for someone.

I believe it's Book and his/her Deutschland Vesvbawieduwwuqiwsuhad Dich/Ich/Zich/Zisch/Viesch theme team.

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Margot Honecker being reported dead by wiki although the source is in Spanish.

 

Unique hit for someone.

I believe it's Book and his/her Deutschland Vesvbawieduwwuqiwsuhad Dich/Ich/Zich/Zisch/Viesch theme team.

 

 

You nearly got it, Rad! :D

 

I didn't notice that Margot Honecker was a unique hit! Good for my team (because Ruth Leuwerik didn't get any reliable obits).

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Brought Forward:

 

Round Up #14

 

Jenny Diski: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8659&p=263965 (Guardian Obit In Link)

 

Edward Ashmore: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=7652&p=264285

 

Telegraph Obit: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2016/05/02/admiral-of-the-fleet-sir-edward-ashmore--obituary1/

 

Emile Ford: (from List Of The Lost)

 

Guardian Obit: http://www.theguardian.com/music/2016/may/02/emile-ford-obituary

 

Marisol Escobar: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=6496&p=264359

 

Guardian Obit: http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2016/may/03/marisol-dies-pop-art-scupture-andy-warhol-gloria-steinem

 

Thomas W Libous: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8677&p=264676

 

Awaiting Obit.

 

Frank Levingston: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=7652&p=264679

 

Daily Mail Obit: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3574833/America-s-oldest-Second-World-War-veteran-dies-aged-110-Louisiana.html

 

Jordan Lotter: (from List Of The Lost)

 

Daily Mail Obit: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-3564031/I-ll-soon-Cancer-patient-s-heartbreaking-promise-best-friend-died-disease-aged-just-19.html

 

Bob Bennett: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8677&p=264889

 

Daily Mail Obit: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-3574369/Ex-Utah-Sen-Bob-Bennett-ousted-tea-party-wave-died.html

 

Margot Honecker: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8677&p=265117

 

Guardian Obit: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/06/margot-honecker-widow-of-former-east-german-leader-dies

 

Isao Tomita: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=7873&p=265305

 

Awaiting Obit.

 

Reg Grundy: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8594&p=265380

 

Guardian Obit: http://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/may/09/reg-grundy-australian-tv-media-personality-dies-aged-92

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Latest update. Too late for Schallert...

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Latest update. Too late for Schallert...

Maybe I'm thinking incorrectly in order to put a positive spin on my predicament, but Cancel My Appointments (10th) is the only team in the top 13 that has a mere 8 hits, meaning I have more available people (12) than all the teams ahead of me (all except one have 7-10). Doesn't mean I have people 'more likely to die' unfortunately but at least I have more Possibilites.

Let's see how the second half of the year goes.

SC

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The highest ranking teamwithout Joey Feek on their squad(Shameless) and the highest ranking team without a Joker hit yet(The Misers) are tied for 20th

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Don't panic guys.

 

If some teams have 10 or 11 hits so far, and you have only (say) 2 or 3, YOU can get another 17 or 18 hits in the next 7 months - they can only get 9 or 10.

 

The person with the most points AT THE END of the game wins.

 

 

:-)

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Shall I do another update :) ?

Kate Granger will die in a few days.

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