Political Frailty

[Ulitzer95 12,654]

Ema Derossi-Bjelajac, President of the Presidency of the Socialist Republic of Croatia (then a constituent part of Croatia, so not a former world leader) 1985–86, dead at 94.

 

Wiki

 

 

[Tower1 93]

2 hours ago, Ulitzer95 said:

Ema Derossi-Bjelajac, President of the Presidency of the Socialist Republic of Croatia (then a constituent part of Croatia, so not a former world leader) 1985–86, dead at 94.

 

Wiki

 

 

You mean "constituent part of Yugoslavia"'?

[Ulitzer95 12,654]

22 minutes ago, Tower1 said:

You mean "constituent part of Yugoslavia"'?

That’s the one! 

[Deathrace 1,171]

Sir Patrick Duffy doesn't sound bad for someone who has just turned 100 https://www.irishpost.com/life-style/ive-always-been-happy-centenary-reflections-as-sir-patrick-duffy-turns-100-186956

[The Old Crem 3,606]

Diana Maddock has died aged 75 .

[YoungWillz 21,057]

4 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

Diana Maddock has died aged 75 .

Mad Dog Maddock?

 

Alan Beith's missus.

[msc 18,476]

1 minute ago, YoungWillz said:

Mad Dog Maddock?

 

Alan Beith's missus.

 

Former President of the Lib Dems. Also won a famous byelection in 1993, Christchurch, with a 35% swing against the Tories, which was one of the early signs that Majors government was DOA post Black Wednesday.

[drol 11,954]

On 25/07/2019 at 19:31, drol said:

North Africa in general has lot to offer in matter of old politicians.

 

 

*Belaid Abdessalam (1928): a PM who has fought Islamists like no one.

 

Belaid Abdessalam dead at 91.

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,346]

9 hours ago, msc said:

 

Former President of the Lib Dems. Also won a famous byelection in 1993, Christchurch, with a 35% swing against the Tories, which was one of the early signs that Majors government was DOA post Black Wednesday.

I've rarely heard anyone describe a government like that before!!

Are you Andrew Rawnsley?

[msc 18,476]

5 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

I've rarely heard anyone describe a government like that before!!

Are you Andrew Rawnsley?

 

No, though I'd accept his wages...

 

There's often debate around The Moment a government is doomed to lose the next election, but the consensus ones for the last two are the 2008 recession and the 1992 ERM crisis (Black Wednesday). Though with both, add on crisis (expenses in 2008-10, every Tory ever having a sleaze scandal in the 90s) didn't help.

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,346]

5 minutes ago, msc said:

 

No, though I'd accept his wages...

 

There's often debate around The Moment a government is doomed to lose the next election, but the consensus ones for the last two are the 2008 recession and the 1992 ERM crisis (Black Wednesday). Though with both, add on crisis (expenses in 2008-10, every Tory ever having a sleaze scandal in the 90s) didn't help.

Will the handling of the coronavirus crisis by this government in your opinion be a similar dooming moment for this administration?

[msc 18,476]

Just now, Gooseberry Crumble said:

Will the handling of the coronavirus crisis by this government in your opinion be a similar dooming moment for this administration?

 

Hard to say, really. Usually these things are related to financial collapses and we are holding up water on that one so far (in part thanks to the new Tory chancellor ripping up all their rules on austerity during the pandemic). The covid drama isn't over yet so we don't know if there's a horrific second wave round the corner, or herd immunity actually works, or a cure is found, or any other plot twist and turn to come, some of which would benefit the government, some of which wouldn't. But the general feeling is that a recession is due (we tend to get one every 10-15 years or so) and that the UK has very little protection to one right now, between our inability to save, the government mess up of Brexit and the covid/jobs factor.

 

I'm reminded a bit of 2005 tbh. Opposition just elected a guy who was in the previous Shadow cabinet but only became an MP 5 years earlier so is a bit of a blank slate. Public seem willingly to give him a decent shake but are struggling to trust the party he leads which is still quite toxic. Government unpopular but seen as good on finance and better than the main alternative.

 

Of course in 2008 the worst recession since the 1930s hit and that new opposition leader took the lead in the polls and wound up winning 100 seats and becoming Prime Minister. But don't mind if I add that I'd really prefer there not to be a major recession at all because the last one fucked up most normal folk in the UK's finances and still hasn't been fixed.

 

In short, the mood weather for the next few years is ominous. But if we could pinpoint exactly what and where and why that is so, people wouldn't walk headfirst into life changing events!

 

 

[Miracle Aligner 249]

19 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Hard to say, really. Usually these things are related to financial collapses and we are holding up water on that one so far (in part thanks to the new Tory chancellor ripping up all their rules on austerity during the pandemic). The covid drama isn't over yet so we don't know if there's a horrific second wave round the corner, or herd immunity actually works, or a cure is found, or any other plot twist and turn to come, some of which would benefit the government, some of which wouldn't. But the general feeling is that a recession is due (we tend to get one every 10-15 years or so) and that the UK has very little protection to one right now, between our inability to save, the government mess up of Brexit and the covid/jobs factor.

  

I'm reminded a bit of 2005 tbh. Opposition just elected a guy who was in the previous Shadow cabinet but only became an MP 5 years earlier so is a bit of a blank slate. Public seem willingly to give him a decent shake but are struggling to trust the party he leads which is still quite toxic. Government unpopular but seen as good on finance and better than the main alternative.

  

Of course in 2008 the worst recession since the 1930s hit and that new opposition leader took the lead in the polls and wound up winning 100 seats and becoming Prime Minister. But don't mind if I add that I'd really prefer there not to be a major recession at all because the last one fucked up most normal folk in the UK's finances and still hasn't been fixed.

 

In short, the mood weather for the next few years is ominous. But if we could pinpoint exactly what and where and why that is so, people wouldn't walk headfirst into life changing events!

 

 

 

What kills governments isn't the recession, it's whether the public think the government are at fault for it. Regardless of whether they actually are.

 

There will be another recession but Starmer is going to have a hard time doing a Cameron and misattributing the blame for it on the incumbent government as Covid is much clearer than a bank crashing for the incumbent government to deflect. 

[Octopus of Odstock 2,200]

40 minutes ago, Miracle Aligner said:

 

What kills governments isn't the recession, it's whether the public think the government are at fault for it. Regardless of whether they actually are.

 

There will be another recession but Starmer is going to have a hard time doing a Cameron and misattributing the blame for it on the incumbent government as Covid is much clearer than a bank crashing for the incumbent government to deflect. 

 

I've been mightily impressed with Rishi Sunak during all this turbulence. Not least as he didn't even have time to prepare or plan due to Javid seemingly doing a Cameron and bailing out early. 

[Miracle Aligner 249]

12 minutes ago, Octopus of Odstock said:

 

I've been mightily impressed with Rishi Sunak during all this turbulence. Not least as he didn't even have time to prepare or plan due to Javid seemingly doing a Cameron and bailing out early. 

 

Wait a while. It's easy to be impressed when the exchequer is handing out money but it's inevitable they'll find ways to get most of it back. It's what happens once we've started to move out of the pandemic and back into normal times that this government will end up being judged on (including Brexit). 

 

A tory government raising taxes and throwing money at infrastructure projects will alienate some and make others think 'well if we're going to have a left wing government let's get the traditional one back' 

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,346]

1 hour ago, msc said:

 

Hard to say, really. Usually these things are related to financial collapses and we are holding up water on that one so far (in part thanks to the new Tory chancellor ripping up all their rules on austerity during the pandemic). The covid drama isn't over yet so we don't know if there's a horrific second wave round the corner, or herd immunity actually works, or a cure is found, or any other plot twist and turn to come, some of which would benefit the government, some of which wouldn't. But the general feeling is that a recession is due (we tend to get one every 10-15 years or so) and that the UK has very little protection to one right now, between our inability to save, the government mess up of Brexit and the covid/jobs factor.

 

I'm reminded a bit of 2005 tbh. Opposition just elected a guy who was in the previous Shadow cabinet but only became an MP 5 years earlier so is a bit of a blank slate. Public seem willingly to give him a decent shake but are struggling to trust the party he leads which is still quite toxic. Government unpopular but seen as good on finance and better than the main alternative.

 

Of course in 2008 the worst recession since the 1930s hit and that new opposition leader took the lead in the polls and wound up winning 100 seats and becoming Prime Minister. But don't mind if I add that I'd really prefer there not to be a major recession at all because the last one fucked up most normal folk in the UK's finances and still hasn't been fixed.

 

In short, the mood weather for the next few years is ominous. But if we could pinpoint exactly what and where and why that is so, people wouldn't walk headfirst into life changing events!

 

 

Superb post.

The only point I would make is that the morning after the 2019 general election I assumed the tories were in for two terms. Now I am not assuming that....

[alt obits guy 3,371]

Ed Conroy, a former Cabinet minister in a BC NDP government whose wife is a Cabinet minister in the current BC NDP government, has died. He was 73.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/former-b-c-cabinet-minister-who-was-husband-of-current-minister-dies-1.5630351?cmp=rss

 

[drol 11,954]

Shen Jilan, China's longest serving Deputy (65 years), has died at 90. Famous because she always approved any proposal from the Communist Party, she was given the highest Chinese honour, Medal of the Republic, last year. Guess she is enjoying it in hell now.

[CoffinLodger 1,248]

On 27/06/2020 at 08:55, Deathrace said:

Sir Patrick Duffy doesn't sound bad for someone who has just turned 100 https://www.irishpost.com/life-style/ive-always-been-happy-centenary-reflections-as-sir-patrick-duffy-turns-100-186956

There can nev er be enough dead politicians I'm sure you all agree ! 

[Tou 6]

Mimi Soltysik, the Socialist Party USA candidate in the 2016 American presidential election, has passed away aged 45 from liver cancer. He only got a few thousand votes. He's a fringe politician, but he's also the first of the many, many """notable""" (enough to get a Wikipedia page for his candidacy) candidates from the 2016 US Presidential election to pass away from what I can tell. https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/06/28/interview-mimi-soltysik-1974-2020

[Joey Russ 7,228]

14 minutes ago, Tou said:

Mimi Soltysik, the Socialist Party USA candidate in the 2016 American presidential election, has passed away aged 45 from liver cancer. He only got a few thousand votes. He's a fringe politician, but he's also the first of the many, many """notable""" (enough to get a Wikipedia page for his candidacy) candidates from the 2016 US Presidential election to pass away from what I can tell. https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/06/28/interview-mimi-soltysik-1974-2020

You sure about that? I thought Hillary Clinton’s career died all the way back in 2016.  

[drol 11,954]

On 16/02/2020 at 14:46, drol said:

Geelani is either fine and improving or very critical, you decide.

Geelani resigns from all posts, either because he is seriously ill or because of insubordination from younger cadres. You decide.

[drol 11,954]

On 01/03/2020 at 20:28, drol said:

Nepali PM KP Sharma Oli will receive second kidney transplantation.

KP Sharma Oli hospitalised. Yeah, check-ups, always check-ups.

[drol 11,954]

On 28/06/2020 at 08:49, drol said:

Shen Jilan, China's longest serving Deputy (65 years), has died at 90. Famous because she always approved any proposal from the Communist Party, she was given the highest Chinese honour, Medal of the Republic, last year. Guess she is enjoying it in hell now.

And as always, a funeral is good for checking the leadership. Zhu Rongji and Song Ping expressed their condolences, though it is not specified if they appeared.

 

Strangely the only absent name, who did not even express condolences, is Jiang Zemin. IMHO this rather suggests that he could not stand Shen Jilan rather than imminent death. But once again many think otherwise...

[Ulitzer95 12,654]

Chiu Chuang-huan (try saying that with a mouthful of noodles), Vice Premier of Taiwan (81–84) dead at 94.