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Political Frailty

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19 hours ago, Ulitzer95 said:


I know Chloe. I like her on a personal level but she's a Wet so not my cuppa politically. She had every intention of early retirement but then there was a snap election called in 2019 so she stayed. So I suspect she'll stand down before she loses her seat. The lack of incumbency will make it more likely to flip too I suppose.

Not sure I agree with you on Scotland. Very hard. Look at what happened to the Scottish Labour vote in 2019. It crumbled away even further to the Nats. Now what I do recognise is the Nats have likely exhausted their potential pool of voters now. They can't chip away at the Labour vote even further than they have done, but it's a long way back for Scottish Labour. It'll take at least another decade.

 

if she does quit, an open seat makes it even likelier, yes. (Also, note the double incumbency theory when it comes to some of the seats that changed hands in 2019.)

 

As for Scotland, well, yes - if they expect to win back 41 seats and then some more as in 2010 (spoiler alert - some of them do measure that as the short term success plan) they are in for a long wait. But, in words which are difficult to type (because how often do you write "Jeremy Corbyn" and "successful electoral route" in the same sentence without a negative?) ...of all people, Jeremy Corbyn showed there was fertile territory for Labour in Scotland with their 2017 more square deal/focus on security type manifesto and campaigning. It won 7 seats (it should have got between 10-20 but their campaign up here was a complete and utter shambles, which led to near misses all over the central belt they would have won with anything near competence or an on the ground campaign). Of course, he then buggered it all up by being Jeremy Corbyn, and pissing over the student vote block, but lets take that bit as read. :D 

 

Essentially, there are seats which are gone for a generation, and that is a good chunk of them. (Chris Laws seat in Dundee, any of their seats in the borders/Ayrshire, and Mhairi Black's going to prove difficult to shift, as three examples, are done for Labour.) There's seats which they can't win, but the SNP/Lib Dems can (in terms of a UK general election). And then there's about 12-17 SNP held seats just now in which the swing seems less reliant on their SNP MP's capabilities and more on the UK wide Labour performance.

 

But this brings us back to East of England, picking up odd seats here and there in unwelcoming territory, and full circle to the old appealing to working class voters and not just giving up.  

 

Anyhow, not trying to start a debate either but was worth (hopefully) clarifying that when we say theres possibilities for Labour in Scotland, we dont mean status quo, and as long as they hold onto their dreams of the old status quo reappearing, they'll remain pretty much as they are.

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21 minutes ago, msc said:

 

if she does quit, an open seat makes it even likelier, yes. (Also, note the double incumbency theory when it comes to some of the seats that changed hands in 2019.)

 

As for Scotland, well, yes - if they expect to win back 41 seats and then some more as in 2010 (spoiler alert - some of them do measure that as the short term success plan) they are in for a long wait. But, in words which are difficult to type (because how often do you write "Jeremy Corbyn" and "successful electoral route" in the same sentence without a negative?) ...of all people, Jeremy Corbyn showed there was fertile territory for Labour in Scotland with their 2017 more square deal/focus on security type manifesto and campaigning. It won 7 seats (it should have got between 10-20 but their campaign up here was a complete and utter shambles, which led to near misses all over the central belt they would have won with anything near competence or an on the ground campaign). Of course, he then buggered it all up by being Jeremy Corbyn, and pissing over the student vote block, but lets take that bit as read. :D 

 

Essentially, there are seats which are gone for a generation, and that is a good chunk of them. (Chris Laws seat in Dundee, any of their seats in the borders/Ayrshire, and Mhairi Black's going to prove difficult to shift, as three examples, are done for Labour.) There's seats which they can't win, but the SNP/Lib Dems can (in terms of a UK general election). And then there's about 12-17 SNP held seats just now in which the swing seems less reliant on their SNP MP's capabilities and more on the UK wide Labour performance.

 

But this brings us back to East of England, picking up odd seats here and there in unwelcoming territory, and full circle to the old appealing to working class voters and not just giving up.  

 

Anyhow, not trying to start a debate either but was worth (hopefully) clarifying that when we say theres possibilities for Labour in Scotland, we dont mean status quo, and as long as they hold onto their dreams of the old status quo reappearing, they'll remain pretty much as they are.


Difficult to say how much of the electoral success of SLabour in 2017 was down to Corbyn or even SLabour's campaign planning. After all, the ScotTories won 13 seats, and I don't for one minute believe that it was down to May or any genius ScotTory campaign plan, because I don't believe there was one.

You seen the North Lanarkshire by-election results today? Both Labour gains. Marginal shifts, but still a significant moment. Can't remember the last time SLabour pulled off a double by-election victory in Scotland.

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3 minutes ago, Ulitzer95 said:


Difficult to say how much of the electoral success of SLabour in 2017 was down to Corbyn or even SLabour's campaign planning. After all, the ScotTories won 13 seats, and I don't for one minute believe that it was down to May or any genius ScotTory campaign plan, because I don't believe there was one.

You seen the North Lanarkshire by-election results today? Both Labour gains. Marginal shifts, but still a significant moment. Can't remember the last time SLabour pulled off a double by-election victory in Scotland.

 

There's also the Union factor - the old Scottish Tory heartland went back to them as the Unionist vote. In Glasgow, on the other hand, a Unionist voter trying to keep out the SNP would vote for another party... But there are many facets to the vote.

 

North Lanarkshire problematic for SNP as well as Labour as its an area very much run by political cliques and huffs. (They lost a seat in 2017 because the MP sided with the wrong person in an interparty argument and their campaign support was cut off!) Yes, I am aware someone from Glasgow looking down on that is a bit glasshouses/stones...

 

(There is of course the other possibility that the Scottish electorate are now in fact actually addicted to exciting election night coverage after the last decade, and so all seat bets are off...:lol:)

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Abdul Ghani had served under the first three prime ministers of Malaysia, with his last post being Works and Public Service Minister in 1978
Former federal minister and Sabah veteran politician Tan Sri Abdul Ghani Gilong died today at the age of 88.

According to his granddaughter, Abdul Ghani died of old age at 12.12am.

SC

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The media outlets were buzzing about this story.

 

Mary Louise “Louise” McBee, a principled, respected, and effective University of Georgia administrator and 6-term state legislator, died on Tuesday, March 2 at the age of 96.

SC

 

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On 14/12/2020 at 20:36, arghton said:

A few Finnish president's chief of staffs have died lately (Antero Jyränki b. 1933 this year and Kauko Sipponen b. 1927 last year) so I decided to check how many of these from the era when the president had almost unlimited power (During especially Kekkonen's and Koivisto's tenures. Both are dead now) inside the country are still alive. Here:

 

Kurt Westerholm (b. 1920) In office 1958-1966.

Richard Tötterman (b. 1926) In office 1966-1970. Saw him on television a while ago. Active but very frail and couldn't properly hear what he's saying.

Juhani Perttunen (b. 1938) In office 1976-1984. Hasn't been active anywhere for years.

Jaakko Kalela (b. 1944) In office 1984-2005. Looks very frail in new photos.

Westerholm never got to 100, even though he was put in a "people who have lived to 100" category on the Finnish wikipedia. In fact he died in 1973 at the age of 53. Mentioned on wikipedia on the 18th of December 2020.

Tötterman? Died off radar too, on the 11th of December 2020. Got an obituary on Helsingin Sanomat on the same day I wrote my original post, however his death wasn't noticed and on both his Finnish and English wikipedias until 17th of January 2021.

 

Juhani Perttunen appeared in some news articles in 2018 but hasn't been seen in media since. Jaakko Kalela looks like he has something growing on his head, he's the most known of these four and won't die off radar.

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Premier of Australian State of Victoria in ICU after a serious fall.

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David Wolfson, Baron Wolfson of Sunningdale (wiki), Conservative life peer and businessman, dead at 85 after a battle with dementia.

Member of the House of Lords from 1991 to 2017.

Also of note, Chairman of Next plc. from 1990 to 1998.

Times obit.

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Robert “Bob" Walkup, who served as Tucson's mayor from 1999 to 2011, died Friday night. He was 84.

Walkup died after a long battle with pulmonary fibrosis.

SC

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While 3 months without a hit in the Oldest Living State Leaders DP have passed, I note the Mohammed Hasan Sharq was in top shape in January. Here's one who has 100 written all over him.

 

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I've been thinking about this since yesterday... which group of three will live longer?

 

1. The three alive Presidents of Laos: Khamtai Siphandon (born 1924), Choummaly Sayasone (born 1936) and Bounnhang Vorachith (born 1937) 

OR

2. The three alive former Presidents of Zambia: Kenneth Kaunda (born 1924), Rupiah Banda (born 1937) and Guy Scott (born 1944)

 

Both have one "ancient one" born in 1924, the 1937 births Vorachith and Banda both seem to be overweight and Guy Scott has parkinson's and looks very frail.

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On 24/02/2021 at 19:29, JiroemonKimura said:

Dan Bongino (2024 hopeful) has nodules on his lung.  Not going to comment on his politics or anything but to be honest I'm not sure he will even make it that far...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/dan-bongino-tapped-for-national-afternoon-radio-slot-in-may-rush-limbaugh-new-york-conservative-mark-kennedy-los-angeles-b1819109.html :Dan  Bongino has been lined up to replace Limbaugh on many stations in the US in his old slot.He also said he has had a clean bill of health on Fox last week.

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On 30/01/2021 at 19:45, arghton said:

Former member of the Finnish parliament Jyrki Kasvi is in hospice care for multiple cancers.

https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a/a556782b-40da-4e92-82d4-55f27416a56c

Known from his glasses and his interest in computers, 57-year old Kasvi, also known as "Wexteen the Wizard" has been fighting cancer(s) for 18 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jyrki_Kasvi

He says that he'll most likely die at the start of summer.

https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-11846032

Says that losing hope is physically hurting him and hopes that he'll get experimental treatment.

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Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas (wiki), son of Congolese politician Bernard Kolélas and leader of the MCDDI party has died at 61, one day after the presidential elections: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/22/congos-opposition-candidate-kolelas-dies-a-day-after-poll

He had COVID and was evacuated to France earlier this month.

He was a candidate in the 2016 and 2021 elections against president/dictator Denis Sassou Nguesso, called "The Emperor" by Alassane Ouattara and Alpha Conde. Denis Sassou Nguesso has changed the constitution a couple of years ago to allow him to rule until 2031, when he would be 87 years old.

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On the (cup) shortlist, off the shortlist. 

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Yep, that was my only off radar cup name before I submitted my team...

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26478.jpg.c426c5a89189e9cb239b7eb6852b012d.jpg

Lord Christopher (wiki) has taken a leave of absence from the House of Lords.

This means that today marks the first time since WWII ended, that none of its veterans have sat in Parliament.

Technically, he's still a member and could rescind his leave of absence and return, but given that he's 96 next month, it's doubtful.

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On 10/01/2020 at 13:28, Ulitzer95 said:


b. 1924: Dale E. Wolf, Jimmy Carter
 

Dead.

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1 hour ago, Thatcher said:

Lord Greaves, Lib Dem peer in the House of Lords, has died aged 78.


Of note, that's 3 sitting Lib Dem members of the Lords who have died in the last year. In the same timespan, just one other has retired.

Evident that they're desperately trying to retain numbers in the Lords. They had about ~120 at one point in the last decade. They now have 86. Still grossly overrepresented.

Noticeable that they have a lot of older peers too. Their average age must be higher compared to Labour, Conservative and Crossbench peers.

No retirement home for those unlucky sods. I can imagine the briefing from Ed Davey now "No retirement home guys. We can still rejoin the EU if you all work extra hard!" :rolleyes:

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MP Joanna Cherry is taking a break from her duties due to health reasons.

 

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