Derby Dead Pool 2017

[Sean 6,314]

28 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

You know, the fact that it looks like one of my gambles is probably going to pull through is probably the greatest achievement I can ask for in my debut DDP year. You gain nothing if you don't take risks, but Brady is a well played gamble imo.

I am really pissed I didnt have him or McGuinness on this years DDP.I have never enjoyed any of my picks dying.Except Lynne Stewart a little bit.

[RadGuy 1,614]

Ian Brady is the first Drop 40 hit since Peter Skellern.

 

In fact, he's also the first hit since Peter Skellern for some contenders!

[Joey Russ 7,220]

I must say, that was a good gamble with Brady.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

I find it funny, tbh, that the person that almost everyone else thinks is a fraud actually dies while the criminal the top dead poolers actually think will die is still living. Just saying.

[Spade_Cooley 9,515]

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view/874388/barry-horowitz-o.gif

[msc 18,438]

21 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

I find it funny, tbh, that the person that almost everyone else thinks is a fraud actually dies while the criminal the top dead poolers actually think will die is still living. Just saying.

 

In 2014, I was one of only four teams who went for (what I thought was a banker hit in) Gabriel Garcia Marquez. Of course, there was no Drop 40 bonus back then.

[Bert Trautmann 58]

I've seen users actually win the DDP and be less self-congratulatory than this.

 

Personally I find it funny when people joker someone who doesn't obit. Just sayin'.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

10 minutes ago, Bert Trautmann said:

I've seen users actually win the DDP and be less self-congratulatory than this.

 

Personally I find it funny when people joker someone who doesn't obit. Just sayin'.

I'm not expecting to win at this point. Hell, had it not been Ian Brady, I wouldn't of congratulated myself at all. Just a bit glad that I got a scumbag. 

[Toast 16,131]

28 minutes ago, Bert Trautmann said:

Personally I find it funny when people joker someone who doesn't obit. Just sayin'.

 

Sara Douglass

[RadGuy 1,614]

Here's some potential rule tweaks to discuss for next year, should the new host be so kind as to listen to our bollocks suggestions.

 

Banning cancer mums? Obviously hard to do as some of them, like Kate Granger, almost achieve household name status. Plus family of the famous like Tracy McGiffin is debatable. But I think most people agree that Sara Hankins/Sally Major types ought to be banned.

 

Eliminating Sun/Mirror/Mail QOs would get rid of much of the cancer mum garbage. Probably easier than debating whether or not a pick is a cancer mum.

 

And since the DDP is becoming more and more international, is it time to start accepting US obits? At least from some of the more prestigious institutions, like NPR or the New York Times.

 

Daily Double bonus? A, let's say, 3 point bonus if two of your team die on the same day. And the host could put the little bonus image thingy on the second person to die that day.

 

Get rid of the Drop 40 bonus? It's pretty pointless to award folks for picking Kirk Douglas types, yawn. But many say this bonus encourages people to not pick cancer mums. But if we were to eliminate cancer mums anyway...

[Sean 6,314]

Keep the drop 40 and make only BBC national obits count.As toast I think said a while back we are in danger of the game losing its meanings.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

The thing about the Daily Mail is while banning it would get rid of the cancer mums, unless they start accepting US obits, many US folk wouldn't qualify anymore. And only BBC national obits would make this game very boring, there needs to be a bit of obit diversity. I think banning cancer mums would just be easier, unless they're like Kate Granger or such.

[CaptainChorizo 1,977]

I think most people know when someone is a corpse in waiting non celeb cancer mum,and those and like Taylor Swift/Beyonce's make up artist type obit's are the only thing that need to be excluded. If you made this BBC only then people would complain when some Latvian Opera singer qualifies and not an actual celeb on  a trash reality show watched by millions of people.

[msc 18,438]

How to tell some folk are bored. They start discussing the DDP rules...

 

14 minutes ago, RadGuy said:

Here's some potential rule tweaks to discuss for next year, should the new host be so kind as to listen to our bollocks suggestions.

 

Banning cancer mums? Obviously hard to do as some of them, like Kate Granger, almost achieve household name status. Plus family of the famous like Tracy McGiffin is debatable. But I think most people agree that Sara Hankins/Sally Major types ought to be banned.

 

Eliminating Sun/Mirror/Mail QOs would get rid of much of the cancer mum garbage. Probably easier than debating whether or not a pick is a cancer mum.

 

And since the DDP is becoming more and more international, is it time to start accepting US obits? At least from some of the more prestigious institutions, like NPR or the New York Times.

 

Daily Double bonus? A, let's say, 3 point bonus if two of your team die on the same day. And the host could put the little bonus image thingy on the second person to die that day.

 

Get rid of the Drop 40 bonus? It's pretty pointless to award folks for picking Kirk Douglas types, yawn. But many say this bonus encourages people to not pick cancer mums. But if we were to eliminate cancer mums anyway...

 

In order:

 

maybe, no, no, no, certainly not.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

Actually, if I remember correctly when reading threads, there was a point where the New York Times was going to be an obit source, but it got dropped at last minute 

[msc 18,438]

It was muted as a possibility by OoO when he took over, when he sounded out a whole raft of potential changes, but was elected against, due to the vast number of crossover obits with already accepted QOs.

 

TMIB added a number of extra QOs, then people complained.

[RadGuy 1,614]

Kinda crazy that there's only been 5 hits in May. The month's almost over for chrissake!

The pace has really slowed down.

[YoungWillz 21,031]

I take the view that a hit is a hit, whether it is non-scoring or scoring.

 

Just because someone hasn't had a QO doesn't detract from the fact that someone has correctly predicted a demise. But hey, that's just me, scoreboards are for people who care about winning.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

23 minutes ago, RadGuy said:

Kinda crazy that there's only been 5 hits in May. The month's almost over for chrissake!

The pace has really slowed down.

I think the cooler months are very heavy in hits while the warmer months attracts fewer hits. 

[msc 18,438]

January-April 2017 = 106 hits

 

January-April 2010 = 56 hits

 

So, you know, could have been worse. Or better, depending on your POV, of course! Pretty sure Messrs Christie, Downie and Meads are quite happy with a slow hit rate at this point in time...

[RadGuy 1,614]

12 teams had Geoffrey Bayldon.

26 teams had Roger Moore.

66 teams had Ian Brady.

 

Gonna be quite a big update, but no major changes at the top of the scoreboard.

 

I'd say the next batch of contender deaths will come in late June-July. Perhaps another one around October-November time.

[themaninblack 2,112]

Latest update and about time too...

[Joey Russ 7,220]

Deceased Hose moved into the top 5 with Brady. He might be the underdog of the year (and not just the deathlist cup). Meanwhile, I'm hanging just outside the top ten. If only I chose a better joker...

[RadGuy 1,614]

Can't believe I'm still hanging on to the podium.

But even when Paul Van-Zandvliet and Rayya Elias die (assuming they're the next two contender hits), it looks like I'll still be hanging on!

My only risk in the near future is if Shameless gets another hit, but only Bannatyne seems on her last legs and she's an obit risk (aren't they all?)

[gcreptile 10,964]

36 minutes ago, RadGuy said:

Can't believe I'm still hanging on to the podium.

But even when Paul Van-Zandvliet and Rayya Elias die (assuming they're the next two contender hits), it looks like I'll still be hanging on!

My only risk in the near future is if Shameless gets another hit, but only Bannatyne seems on her last legs and she's an obit risk (aren't they all?)

Shameless will get a couple more hits, but as long as Bracknell/Downie/Christie/King Michael die, one should disregard it for the title. It gets interesting though if they don't. Golden Slumbers then gets the 10 pts from Van Zandvliet and the rest is a bit shakier (Cryne likely dies this year, but it's not a lock). Stefansson might survive the year, Golmard will survive (in my opinion), Nevin may be a fraud? 

 

Here's my view of Shameless' potential, as of now:

Aundrea Bannatyne: Dying this year, but the obit is not sure, it might depend on that ITV journalist, as in Mark Sims' case.

Irfon Williams: Dying this year, obit a bit likelier than Bannatyne's. Might still end up in the BBC/ITV local sections though.

Cheyann Clark/Shaw: Eh, bad pick

Emma Houlston: Silence from her, but probably not dead yet. The obit would be surprising. Cpt. Chorizo also picked her. If she obits, Shameless ends up at least in the Top 20 at the end.

Heidi Loughlin: Completing her bucket list. Solid pick. Good obit chances, but not a lock for 2017.

Bobby Zarin: His wife said he was recovering from surgery. Obit is sure, but death isn't.

Leanne Hock: Too ill to go on holiday this month. But the obit is unlikely.

Sophie Sabbage: Definite obit, but stable, treatment is currently working

Juan Pedro Franco: Had surgery this month, no news on whether it was a success, definite obit, but might survive. A total gamble. (The previous recordholder Manuel Uribe also died during his weight loss period, if I recall correctly. The body was already too damaged.)

Laura Saull: Very ill according to twitter, emergency hospitalization this month, now on chemo (so there's still something that can be done), but the obit is very unlikely since she stopped blogging a long time ago

Gemma Nuttall: Now on palliative care. That treatment in Germany never happened because of seizures (5 brain tumours). But the obit is very doubtful.

 

I'd say there's no "will die AND obit" case anymore. But a couple of cases may make it through. Maybe 3-4 picks. Shameless then may end up with around 130pts (my scoreboard has it at 133pts right now).