Thoughts On The 2017 List

[Joey Russ 7,118]

I realize I haven't given an opinion on all the entries on the list. So here I go (minus MTM):

Kirk Douglas: It's a gut feeling, but I really think it's his year. I can't see him making it to 101. So, 80% chance of a hit here, imo.

Vera Lynn: Old and frail. Again, not someone I see making it to 101. 85% chance

Billy Graham: He's slowly dying, though I don't know when he will finally cark it. Let's say 50%

Lord Peter Carrington: I think it's tricky to tell when he'll finally pass away. 40%

Peter Sallis: He's very frail, so I'd be shocked if he makes it to 2018. 90%

Prince Philip: Still active with the queen. 20%

Denis Norden: He's going blind and he's frail, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's still around in a few years. 60%

Pierre Cardin: Not sure how ill he is, but some people are saying he's a goner, so I'm taking their word. 70%

Stan Lee: Won't die this year (probably), but would be a name too big to miss, imo. 15%

Olivia de Haviland: Unlike Douglas and Lynn, I could see her around in a few years. 25%

Herman Wouk: He's just old, again, I could see him alive a few years from now. 30%

Tony Booth: He looks pretty fucked. So many ailments, just like Pope John Paul 2 when he was dying, I see a very likely hit here. 95%

Bob Dole: Still seems to b going strong. 25%

Leah Bracknell: She seems fucked, but I'm kind of hoping she makes it to 2018, because I'm an idiot for not putting her on my DDP team. I could see her still around in 2018 though, so 85%

Jimmy Carter: Survived cancer, and he seems to be going strong, unlike someone else later on down the list... 30%

Gord Downie: He's pretty much done, cause his health is failing. And average life expectancy for gliobstama is coming up, 99%

Leslie Philips. Still looks very frail, so I suspect a hit from him is coming soon. 80%

Robert Mugabe: He had a health scare last September, but he still seems to be going strong. Although one wonders why he hasn't shown up to the forum for s while... 50%

Javier Perez de Cuellar: The boring pick, like always. 35%

Jake Lamotta: One too many punches too the head. How is he still alive? 70%

King Michael of Romania: Leukemia in a 95 year old? Consider him fucked. 99%

Betty White: I see her reaching 100. Will she be the next bed blocker for deathlist? 20%

Nobby Stiles: Seemingly in grave condition, but I'm not sure if that's 100% true. 85%

Queen Elizabeth: Survived a cold. She'll survive the next ten years and be a bed blocker. 10%

Jill Gascoine: Too early is what I'm suspecting. Not impossible though, so 60%

Bob Barker: Again, I think he'll be another bed blocker. 10%

Doug Ellis: He's just old, but this is a way to out jinx the name that would normally be dropped. Though I think it already happened with MTM, so 40%

George Bush Sr: Recently hospitalized and frail as fuck. He's going out I think. 90%

Honor Blackman: Don't think she'll die, but I like her on deathlist because she is probably Zsa Zsa's successor. 15%

Ian St John: He's pretty fucked with bladder cancer. More likely than Stiles, imo. 95%

Hugh Hefner: I like this name as well. Don't think he'll go, but a hit here would be nice. 20%

David Prowse: Not impossible, because he could be the next Peter O'Toole like hit. Ah, but I think Mary Tyler Moore already filled that roll, so 5%

Jerry Lewis: Agreed with others, he'll be a future bed blocker. Though if he does die, I'll be laughing because I completely forgot about him in the inverse dead pool. 20%

David Rockefeller: Why is he still alive? At least he's better than Trump, right? 90%

Sandy Gall: Another attempt to out jinx death list. 40%

Pope Benedict: Seems really frail right now. I think he'll be a hit. 75%

Bruce Forsyth: One year ago, I would be questioning his inclusion on the list. Today, he seems a goner, so bye bye to Brucie. 90%

Fats Domino: A rocker can't live forever. Don't think it's quite his year yet, but it certainly is coming up. 60%

Hosni Murbarak: Scumbag. 10%

Desmond Tutu: Wanting to die, and has illnesses in the past. 65%

Akihito: I think he's going to die soon, but I'm not sure it's this year. 55%

Gay Byrne: Dropped very early from my shortlist because I didn't see anything ever since he announced his possible cancer diagnosis. 35%

Glen Campbell: Surely it must be his year, he kind of reached life expectancy from Alzheimer's. 85%

Liz Dawn: People wanted her on the list, but I'm not sure that's the brightest decision for the list. Her illness doesn't seem that bad. 25%

John Noakes: Still frail, and he has Alzheimer's I don't think he has that long in him. 75%

Valerie Harper: How long can the tumor go before she's dead. 40%

Joost van der Westhuizen: Pretty much reach his climax point. Using oxygen some of the time, but either way, he's probably a goner this year. 80%

Errol Christie: He's fucked. I'm still confused on how he made the list, but that's a story for a different day. 99%

Ian Brady: Claims he has terminal illness. I'v taken the gambit that he's telling the truth. Just a gut feeling. He still could be lying though, so 50%

 

Hmm. The people I consider likely hits, aka, those over 70% are Douglas, Lynn, Sallis, Cardin, Booth, Bracknell, Downie, Philips, LaMotta, King Michael, Stiles, Bush, St John, Rockefeller, Benedict, Forsyth, Campbell, Noakes, Joost, and Christie. Tell me if I'm wrong, but it looks like there are 20 likely hits. That, plus a few of the people who hasn't reached 70%, including Mary Tyler Moore, means that it's probably a record braking year. Though a few will probably survive into the next year. Just my thoughts on this.

[msc 17,712]

Christie's on the list because the Cmme quite clearly got fecked off with nearly producing a shit score in a death-laden year, and so went for a few low hanging fruit.

[drol 10,028]

MTM was a complete surprise. Low hanging fruits are all still alive and ready to go.

[drol 10,028]

Updated possibilities.

Kirk Douglas: 70%
Vera Lynn: 80%
Billy Graham: 80%
Lord Peter Carrington: 50%
Peter Sallis: 90%
Prince Philip: 10%
Denis Norden: 45%
Pierre Cardin: 55%
Stan Lee: 5%
Olivia de Haviland: 15%
Herman Wouk: 50%
Tony Booth: 90%
Bob Dole: 12%
Leah Bracknell: 95%
Jimmy Carter: 5%
Gord Downie: 95%
Leslie Philips. 55%
Robert Mugabe: 30%
Javier Perez de Cuellar: 25%
Jake Lamotta: 60%
King Michael of Romania:95%
Betty White: 5%
Nobby Stiles: 50%
Queen Elizabeth: 5%
Jill Gascoine: 70%
Bob Barker: 20%
Doug Ellis: 50%
George Bush Sr: 70%
Honor Blackman: 5%
Ian St John: 50%
Hugh Hefner: 10%
David Prowse: 5%
Jerry Lewis: 5%
David Rockefeller: 75%
Sandy Gall: 25%
Pope Benedict: 25%
Bruce Forsyth: 75%
Fats Domino: 45%
Hosni Murbarak: 5%
Desmond Tutu: 45%
Akihito: 5%
Gay Byrne: 10%
Glen Campbell: 90%
Liz Dawn: 20%
John Noakes: 65%
Valerie Harper: 30%
Joost van der Westhuizen: 70%
Errol Christie: 95%
Ian Brady: 35%

[RadGuy 1,605]

Well, it's been a month, so here is what I think:

 

Unlike the past two years, the hits will be evenly spread out. We have some who are on the brink of death (Gord Downie, King Michael), others who might hang on a while (Errol Christie, Joost van der Westhuizen), those who seem like late-year deaths (Leah Bracknell, Ian St John), and those who could die whenever or not all (Peter Sallis, Kirk Douglas).

 

I did some research, and the record for least deathless months in a year is three - in 2006 and 2008. We have a good chance of beating that, I reckon.

[JiroemonKimura 95]

I'm not as confident about Michael I as others seem to be. His leukemia was said to be chronic, which can take a while. This reminds me of Kate Bornstein, who was diagnosed several years ago along with lung cancer but probably isn't going anywhere this year. Yes, Michael is 95, and Bornstein is 70, but Michael was only diagnosed last year and doesn't have lung cancer to worsen the situation. Furthermore, his healthcare is likely to be among the best in the world. Of course, I would not be at all surprised if he does go, but who knows?

 

Other that that, I think Christie, Bracknell, and Downie (stating the obvious) are the 3 best picks, and there are a good number of 95+ picks that could hopefully rake up enough points to break 14. MTM seemed a bit early to go but by this time I would expect that we have a hit or two. There are a number (Soares, Sarstedt, Meads, Wetton) that I think could've been included, but who knows what the threshold of fame is in the secretive committee?

[Sean 5,997]

I'm not as confident about Michael I as others seem to be. His leukemia was said to be chronic, which can take a while. This reminds me of Kate Bornstein, who was diagnosed several years ago along with lung cancer but probably isn't going anywhere this year. Yes, Michael is 95, and Bornstein is 70, but Michael was only diagnosed last year and doesn't have lung cancer to worsen the situation. Furthermore, his healthcare is likely to be among the best in the world. Of course, I would not be at all surprised if he does go, but who knows?

 

Other that that, I think Christie, Bracknell, and Downie (stating the obvious) are the 3 best picks, and there are a good number of 95+ picks that could hopefully rake up enough points to break 14. MTM seemed a bit early to go but by this time I would expect that we have a hit or two.

Whilst it is true that chronic Leukemia could take a while to finish him off but he also has a nasty form of skin cancer and was reported to be weakening by the day in the summer.Also he was too frail to leave hospital for his wife`s funeral which was ominous.He is also 96 this year and could easily at that age and given his health he could easily get pneumonia or suffer other potentially fatal health complications.

[drol 10,028]

I think he's a goner. He's just too old to tolerate a severe illness like that and his wife died some months ago, when he was described as "ailing" and "gravely ill". A miracle if he sees 2018.

[Sean 5,997]

I would say Downie Christie Bracknell King Michael and Booth are all dead certs this year.

[drol 10,028]

I would say Downie Christie Bracknell King Michael and Booth are all dead certs this year.

And Glen Campbell. He could not speak some months ago, most people did not even expect to see him alive in 2017.

[Toast 14,798]

I'm not as confident about Michael I as others seem to be. His leukemia was said to be chronic, which can take a while. This reminds me of Kate Bornstein, who was diagnosed several years ago along with lung cancer but probably isn't going anywhere this year. Yes, Michael is 95, and Bornstein is 70, but Michael was only diagnosed last year and doesn't have lung cancer to worsen the situation. Furthermore, his healthcare is likely to be among the best in the world. Of course, I would not be at all surprised if he does go, but who knows?

 

Other that that, I think Christie, Bracknell, and Downie (stating the obvious) are the 3 best picks, and there are a good number of 95+ picks that could hopefully rake up enough points to break 14. MTM seemed a bit early to go but by this time I would expect that we have a hit or two. There are a number (Soares, Sarstedt, Meads, Wetton) that I think could've been included, but who knows what the threshold of fame is in the secretive committee?

 

Two words.

Fergie Frederiksen.

[drol 10,028]

Two words.

Ruby Muhammad.

[earl 64]

They are in the list 26 people of 95 or more years, so considering their old age at list the 25% of them would die this year, I think. So like 6 or 7 of them would die. And adding another 5 that have terminal diseases and another 3 or 4 more unexpected (including MTM), they could die easily like 15 people.

[Deadpool 163]

So,...

 

Apparently most of the people/users on this topic agree that some names are have a VERY HIGH probability (between 90%-100%) to go this year...

 

this names are

 

- Leah Bracknell

- King Michael I of Romania

- Glenn Campbell

- Errol Christie

- Peter Sallis

- Gord Downie

- Leslie Philips

 

and they are others name with the probability to go to Heaven (or Hell) between 70%-90% (not a cert but almost)

 

- David Rockefeller

- Vera Lynn

- Herman Wouk

- Kirk Douglas

- Billy Graham

- Tony Booth

- Bruce Forsyth

 

So essentially the Deathlist can reach the record with this names no considering others names on it... lets see what happen

[drol 10,028]

Till now hits were random, so I guess the best period for DL has yet to come.

[Joey Russ 7,118]

I wouldn't call Joost random. He was nearing his life expectancy, so it wasn't that surprising.

[drol 10,028]

I wouldn't call Joost random. He was nearing his life expectancy, so it wasn't that surprising.

He could die this year, he could go on two years. He was never a dead cert. Dead certs on the list are Christie, Downie, Bracknell, Michael and they still could make the year (well, not all of them for sure...)

[Sean 5,997]

In my view the ten most likely hits:

1)Errol Christie

2)Gord Downie

3)Leah Bracknell

4)Tony Booth

5)King Michael

6)Nobby Stiles

7)Billy Graham

8)Kirk Douglas

9)Glen Campbell

10)Jill Gascoine

[msc 17,712]

Well, I think Kirk Douglas, Vera Lynn, Lord Carrington, Peter Sallis, Pierre Cardin, Olivia de Havilland, Herman Wouk, tony Booth, Leah Bracknell, Gord Downie, Leslie Philips, Javier Perez de Cuellar, King Michael, Nobby Stiles, Jill Gascoine, George Bush Sr, Ian St John, David Rockefeller, Sandy Gall, Pope Emeritus, Bruce Forsyth, Fats Domino, Hosni Mubarak, Akihito, Glen Campbell, John Noakes, Liz Dawn, Valerie Harper, Errol Christie and Ian Brady will die this year.

 

Thus giving us a score of...32/50, apparently.

 

Slight exaggeration to make the point!

[Joey Russ 7,118]

If that is what happens, then all the survivors would be brought forward to the 2018 list.

 

(Exaggerating obviously)

[rockhopper penguin 2,264]

 

I wouldn't call Joost random. He was nearing his life expectancy, so it wasn't that surprising.

He could die this year, he could go on two years. He was never a dead cert. Dead certs on the list are Christie, Downie, Bracknell, Michael and they still could make the year (well, not all of them for sure...)

 

You're definition of dead cert then is somone who could die sooner than people who aren't dead certs but not definitely.

[Sean 5,997]

I reckon we could get near 20 hits.

[Weebl 216]

I reckon we could get near 20 hits.

 

If we got the forum users to write the list instead of the committee.

[ebless 202]

My verdict for the 2017 list.

 

Almost certain: Billy Graham, Tony Booth, Leah Bracknell, Gord Downie, King Michael of Romania, Nobby Stiles, Jill Gascoine, George Bush senior, Glen Campbell and Errol Christie.

 

In real danger but may make to 2018: Kirk Douglas, Vera Lynn, Peter Sallis, Duke of Edinburgh, Olivia De Haviland, Herman Wouk, Leslie Phillips, Ian St John, David Rockefeller, Bruce Forsyth, Hosni Mubarak, Desmond Tutu, Liz Dawn, John Noakes, Valerie Harper, Emperor Akhito

 

Will they won't they?: Lord Carrington, Denis Norden, Pierre Cardin, Bob Dole, Jimmy Carter, Robert Mugabe, Javier Perez De Cueller, Jake Lamotta, Doug Ellis, Hugh Hefner, David Prowse, Sandy Gall, Pope Benedict, Fats Domino, Gay Byrne, Ian Brady

 

Little chance: Stan Lee, Betty White, Honor Blackman, Queen Elizabeth II, Jerry Lewis, Bob Barker

[drol 10,028]

My verdict for the 2017 list.

 

Almost certain: Billy Graham, Tony Booth, Leah Bracknell, Gord Downie, King Michael of Romania, Nobby Stiles, Jill Gascoine, George Bush senior, Emperor Akihito, Glen Campbell and Errol Christie.

 

In real danger but may make to 2018: Kirk Douglas, Vera Lynn, Peter Sallis, Duke of Edinburgh, Olivia De Haviland, Herman Wouk, Leslie Phillips, Ian St John, David Rockefeller, Bruce Forsyth, Hosni Mubarak, Desmond Tutu, Liz Dawn, John Noakes, Valerie Harper

 

Will they won't they?: Lord Carrington, Denis Norden, Pierre Cardin, Bob Dole, Jimmy Carter, Robert Mugabe, Javier Perez De Cueller, Jake Lamotta, Bob Barker, Doug Ellis, Hugh Hefner, David Prowse, Sandy Gall, Pope Benedict, Fats Domino, Gay Byrne, Ian Brady

 

Little chance: Stan Lee, Betty White, Honor Blackman, Queen Elizabeth II, Jerry Lewis

Why? Are you a Japanese royal by any chance?