The Rolling Probabilistic Ddp Scoreboard

[Joey Russ 7,229]

 

I agree. Don't think it'll be likely, but he's not my most important punt anyways...

 

Yes, I think we've both been stupid with our choice of joker and I bet with the same reasoning too, the hope that they would be unique.

 

I could have easily put one of Joost/Sims/Downie/Bracknell/Christie as my joker, all would have been worth more points than Kobayashi and all were more certain to die/obit. Yet, for some reason, I took a risk for the reward of less points...

 

I still think my team is strong enough for a top 10 finish, possibly top 5 if Kobayashi does turn out to be a hit, but my chances of winning have been thwarted by my unwise decisions.

Yeah. For the longest time, I had Joost planned as my joker, but as the final week came in, I changed it to Sims, then Suisala once I found it on the 29th I think. And as said before, he, in my opinion, is more likely to obit than Aspin, but I need a few things to happen. My chances on winning though, assuming Suisala obits, is Al Baghdadi, Brady and Loughlin dying. I think I'll get Loughlin due to the potential of courts taking the life saving drug away tbh. And I may get Al Baghdadi due to the climax of the battle of Isis, and Brady may or not be telling the truth. But then Bracknell surviving is also important for my chances, and one or more of the punts from the other contending teams failing is also important. Certainly not impossible, but unlikely. But then again, I wouldn't be mad if I made the top ten on my first year ever...

[msc 18,480]

Well, Skellern is on all the contenders teams, so it would be really useful to my chances if he was exaggerating his health issues!

 

Lakovic and Butts on the other hand are scarce, so I could do with them both getting QOs.

[the_engineer 1,415]

well my team is into the top 20 for the very first time ever. A top 20 finish would be a great result for me even a top 50 would be progress the highest i ever finished was 53rd .

[Joey Russ 7,229]

Just something I noticed, certain picks are dying earlier than I expect them to. Soares, Sims, and Coward were definitely goners for the first part of the year, but Skellern, Wetton, and Joost, all who I thought were later deaths, died earlier than expected.

[msc 18,480]

Well, Skellern is on all the contenders teams, so it would be really useful to my chances if he was exaggerating his health issues!

 

Couldn't even last a week!

[Spade_Cooley 9,541]

 

Well, Skellern is on all the contenders teams, so it would be really useful to my chances if he was exaggerating his health issues!

 

Couldn't even last a week!

 

 

Protestants, huh?

[maryportfuncity 10,658]

I'm not for one second claiming I'll threaten the podium but I was so disgusted at my lowly showings of late I picked a team of dependables with a few wild cards. Gratified to see myself well inside the top 30 at the moment and also reassured that Anne Hamilton-Byrne - who's palliatively cared for and paying out this year, surely - is a unique. I confidently forecast I'll finish higher than well off the radar as I did in 2016.

[rockhopper penguin 2,265]

Theme team looking good for a first effort.

[Joey Russ 7,229]

I'm assuming I'll fall behind with Hewlett...

[drol 11,979]

2 hours ago, joeyruss said:

I'm assuming I'll fall behind with Hewlett...

WE will fall behind.

[gcreptile 10,979]

Update for Sara Coward, Peter Skellern and Steve Hewlett (plus a small reduction of Jagraj Singh's obitability because of the year-of-birth issue):

 

1. Golden Slumbers (167,78)

2. Thomas Jefferson Survives (160,93)

3. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (160,14)

4. The Love Boat (157,28)

5. Poochie died on the way back to his home planet (156,87)

6. Day in the Death (156,85)

7. Still Life (156,77) 

8. To Kill a Gabor Sister (156,5)

9. The Living End (151,79)

10. Droller Coaster (151,54)

11. Dead Ends (148,6775)

12. Pan Breed (148,61)

13. New Years and Drinks All Night (147,91)

14. Deceased Hose (147,18)

15. This Mortal Coil (146,262)

 

Coward didn't change all that much, because almost everyone had her. Skellern was quite a boost because he "managed" to die in the better age bracket. Hewlett was an ordinary boost, I had him at 70% of dying in late 2016. That was when there was still some kind of treatment option and before the prognosis got worse in January. After that, he was, of course, fucked.

Golden Slumbers extends its lead and hasn't made any misstep so far. Again, this team will probably only be beaten if some of the more risky picks pay off, i.e. Jagraj SIngh or Julia Perez. 

My own team declines somewhat because it is getting its hits at a slower rate. As I said, I have almost no picks with a chance of dying at 100%. This also means that the points in the bag are worth more than those you can still expect.

I put some of the "canon" picks in my beta team, Snuka, Skellern, Hewlett.... and this team now has five hits, one more than my main team. In some cases, this was a mistake because of the Drop 40 bonus, i.e. Snuka and Skellern. The performance of my own team will be the biggest test of this exercise, I guess. But then, the year is still very young, and many of the "locks" are now dead.

The next update will be in March and so the obitability of terminally ill people (without blog/media campaign) will be reduced again.

[drol 11,979]

What will be the change in points if Stefan Karl dies?

[gcreptile 10,979]

1 hour ago, drol said:

What will be the change in points if Stefan Karl dies?

7,15 pts. I wasn't yet completely aware how prominent he was (I actually thought he was "only" a voice actor), and there was that song that is now "Meme of the year", so I underestimated his obitability. On the other hand, he's also very young and could outlast the year. And I don't exactly know how bad the cancer already is.

 

Edit: Ah, I saw the good news. I am not going to change the mortality chance more than once or twice a year, so his current score of 5,85pts remains. Still, another indication that Golden Slumbers is on the way to victory.

[Joey Russ 7,229]

Grr. Hewlett kicks me out of the top 5...

[Joey Russ 7,229]

How much will be taken off of Suisala this time (assuming he's the only shameless person to drop down on my team). 

[gcreptile 10,979]

2 hours ago, joeyruss said:

How much will be taken off of Suisala this time (assuming he's the only shameless person to drop down on my team). 

1,14 times two, as a joker. So you'll drop a place. Spade will fall behind you because Jay Clark doesn't seem to obit. But I won't update for a couple of days yet (let's see if Nevin dies and obits).

[msc 18,480]

Nevin should obit. She's a criminal with a nickname. Mail will be all over that.

[Joey Russ 7,229]

2 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

Spade will fall behind you because Jay Clark doesn't seem to obit.

I'm beating Spade at the moment? Oh yeah. 

[gcreptile 10,979]

Just now, joeyruss said:

I'm beating Spade at the moment? Oh yeah. 

Wait a second... I have to correct myself... He's still a point above you, with Jay Clark's obitability reduced to 5% and Suisala's reduced to 50%. I don't know what I did wrong, but with Nevin's death he will be above you again, anyway. Sorry for that.

[msc 18,480]

Suisala is Joey's joker so he'd lose more points? I dunno. It's all maths to me.

 

 

[Joey Russ 7,229]

1 minute ago, gcreptile said:

Wait a second... I have to correct myself... He's still a point above you, with Jay Clark's obitability reduced to 5% and Suisala's reduced to 50%. I don't know what I did wrong, but with Nevin's death he will be above you again, anyway. Sorry for that.

[gcreptile 10,979]

5 minutes ago, msc said:

Suisala is Joey's joker so he'd lose more points? I dunno. It's all maths to me.

 

 

The joker is basically like two people with identical expected scores, so each change for a joker counts double.

[gcreptile 10,979]

Quick update for our cancer celebrities Jay Clark and Lisa Magill (while Nevin is STILL alive). Downgrade of obitability for some of the less famous folks, most importantly, Ben Suisala. Lynne Stewart is also in there, but as far as I can recall, noone currently on the list had her.

Edit: New Years and Drinks All Night picked her. Deceased Hose, too.

 

1. Golden Slumbers (171,13)

2. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (168,74)

3. Thomas Jefferson Survives (160,93)

4. To Kill a Gabor Sister (159,85)

5. The Love Boat (157,28)

6. Poochie died on the way back to his home planet (156,87)

7. Still Life (156,77)

8. A Day in the Death (154,57)

9. Dead Ends (152,0275)

10. The Living End (151,79)

11. New Years and Drinks All Night (151,76)

12. droller coaster (151,54)

13. Heading Nowhere (151,22)

14. Deceased Hose (151,03)

15. Pan Breed (147,47)

 

Not much time, but the death of Jay Clark has turned it into a two-man competition. Spade gains by being the most shameless of the lot and picking both Clark and Magill - the only one to do so (except for Shameless, which, by the way, is on the course for the title defense, but currently "only" at 108,36 expected pts). Cpt. Chorizo makes his first entrance. It's all very close around places 9-14. 

[Death Impends 8,005]

Nevin feels like the only real "last legs" name there is at the moment so the next few months should be interesting for the DDP.

[Joey Russ 7,229]

How much boost does RadGuy get for Hankins obitting after all?