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gcreptile

The Rolling Probabilistic Ddp Scoreboard

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4 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

Well, Falkholt is now dead. Do we already potentially know the DDP winner already? I mean, I don’t expect to beat him with the few differentials on my team...

EDIT: Or it seems like she’s still alive. But she will be dead before too long...

It's certainly one of the gambles that need to go to The Dead Cow's favor. Ian Toothill is a bit of a risk as well, because of obitability, in my opinion. And Mike Willesee is a so-so pick. But for the moment, I think he's ahead, as long as we don't know the non-forum teams.

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Definitely could see Dead Cow doing a Bert and hold the lead more-or-less consecutively for most of the year. All depends on how the other risks, both on his team and other teams, play out...

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33 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

It's certainly one of the gambles that need to go to The Dead Cow's favor. Ian Toothill is a bit of a risk as well, because of obitability, in my opinion. And Mike Willesee is a so-so pick. But for the moment, I think he's ahead, as long as we don't know the non-forum teams.

I hear what you're saying re Willesee, he was my last minute 'futharc' pick (see Fujimori 2017, Frank Lucas every year previous). Literally added him as I wrote my team out in my Email to Spade and dropped Tessa Jowell to the B-team. Also, he kind of reminds me of Dave Strader a few months before he died.

 

As for Toothill, he'll obit, I'm sure of it.

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I’m not so sure. If his achievement was 2 - 3 months before January and he dies, I would’ve considered him. If he did the achievement the same time but has received more coverage afterwards, I might’ve considered him. But 7 months and counting with no QO mention since his achievement is what made me turn away from him. Not impossible, but it felt like too much of a risk for me to take (plus, I wanted to try and avoid FFBI picks this time cause they didn’t really help me last year, with the only two dying were already on a lot of the contending teams...)

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Toothill is a rarity for me in that his accomplishment is interesting enough for me that, despite being FFBI, I don't feel much guilt in picking him. I'm hoping the QO sources share my viewpoint that climbing Everest while terminally ill is enough of a feat to be worth revisiting no matter how long he lasts post-summit, and I think that'll be the case.

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Also one could say "Willesee 2019?" is one of the big questions of this year. :P

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12 minutes ago, Death Impends said:

Toothill is a rarity for me in that his accomplishment is interesting enough for me that, despite being FFBI, I don't feel much guilt in picking him. I'm hoping the QO sources share my viewpoint that climbing Everest while terminally ill is enough of a feat to be worth revisiting no matter how long he lasts post-summit, and I think that'll be the case.

That’s why I said it wasn’t impossible for him to obit. If I read correctly, I think Jade Pateman only received coverage in July 2015, but she died and obitted at the end of February 2016. Turned out to be a risk well taken. Again, I’m sure part of me not picking him has to do with the Ben Suisala paranoia, but I wouldn’t be mad if he does obit and I miscalculated due to his achievement...

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21 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

I’m not so sure. If his achievement was 2 - 3 months before January and he dies, I would’ve considered him. If he did the achievement the same time but has received more coverage afterwards, I might’ve considered him. But 7 months and counting with no QO mention since his achievement is what made me turn away from him. Not impossible, but it felt like too much of a risk for me to take (plus, I wanted to try and avoid FFBI picks this time cause they didn’t really help me last year, with the only two dying were already on a lot of the contending teams...)

Re Toothill - this was also my thinking - in fact I was far from certain that he had not already died however apparently there was some twitter mention in November on his local football club site (is site the right word?? social media is not my strong point so if site makes me sound 103 apologies).

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14 minutes ago, Death Impends said:

Also one could say "Willesee 2019?" is one of the big questions of this year. :P

The Patrick Cryne of 2018? 

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11 days into the year, it's too early to say what picks will be what.

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On 10.1.2018 at 19:17, The Dead Cow said:

Seeing as you've made estimates for pretty much every other B-team posted on the forum, would you mind doing so with Still More Life, if that's not too much bother for you.

  Still more life
  Name Expected score base points
1 Stefan Karl Stefansson 6,35 13,00
1 Stefan Karl Stefansson 6,35 13,00
2 Stuart Fraser 1,73 8,00
3 Tessa Jowell 6,37 10,00
4 Justin Raimondo 1,82 11,00
5 Dave Fisher 1,30 13,00
6 Charlotte Rae 5,85 5,00
7 Olivia Newton-John 5,50 11,00
8 Valerie Harper 3,88 10,00
9 Bill Heine 3,04 7,00
10 Ami Brown 3,78 9,00
11 Steffan Lewis 4,20 10,00
12 Paul Alcock 4,00 8,00
13 Sara Chivers 5,60 10,00
14 Simon Ricketts 6,30 9,00
15 Kathleen Blanco 4,20 7,00
16 Vanessa LaFaye 5,21 7,00
17 Oliver Dragojevic 0,76 7,00
18 Brian O'Connor 2,65 13,00
19 Nyssa Burrells 2,10 10,00
20 Abi Flynn 1,51 15,00
All   82,493 206
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On 1/11/2018 at 07:35, gcreptile said:

Not today, but next weekend!

 

I also have The Heeflich Maneouvre on my list, but I don't know his joker...

 

I don't think I had one as I was doing my list on the phone. So, I guess Bill Crider is my joker.

 

Given how little mileage Jim Anderton got from QOs, there's 0% chance of Sir Ngatata Love getting a QO in my opinion. He was already only an outside chance anyway.

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Bill Crider is an interesting joker, as I don’t really expect him to obit, but if he somehow does obit, you’ll be highly rewarded imo...

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On 1/10/2018 at 13:22, gcreptile said:

Out of about 1300 living people on my longlist, only 11 currently have the 100% (for 2018):

John McCain, Lindy Remigino, Ron Villemaire (Star Wars fan), Kevin McAllister (DWTS something of a something), Nicki Flood (cancer mum), Spanky Manikan (who doesn't know him?), Vanessa Goodwin, Bobby Zarin, Morrie Boogaart (hat-knitting guy), Bill Crider and Franco Zeffirelli.

 

One down, ten to go...

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Bill Crider reminds me a little of conspiracy theory author Jim Marrs. He eventually got a QO after several months.

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10 hours ago, Joey Russ said:
On 1/10/2018 at 19:22, gcreptile said:

Out of about 1300 living people on my longlist, only 11 currently have the 100% (for 2018):

John McCain, Lindy Remigino, Ron Villemaire (Star Wars fan), Kevin McAllister (DWTS something of a something), Nicki Flood (cancer mum), Spanky Manikan (who doesn't know him?), Vanessa Goodwin, Bobby Zarin, Morrie Boogaart (hat-knitting guy), Bill Crider and Franco Zeffirelli.

 

One down, ten to go...

Make that nine...

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The problem with that 100% list is that some of these people might not even receive any obit, i.e. Ron Villemaire (who I think might actually be dead right now), Nicki Flood and Morrie Boogaart.

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Actually, regarding Morrie Boogaart, he is probably still alive, as per this newsletter:

http://georgetownandcambridge.baruchsls.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2017/11/Grandville-November17-Newsletter.pdf (Thank you for your service!)

 

One of the other veterans, Harvey Weenum, died a couple of days ago.

http://www.legacy.com/obituaries/name/harvey-weenum-obituary?pid=187776064

 

Though wait, another one on the list, Bruce Sampo, died in September 2017:
http://www.legacy.com/obituaries/name/bruce-sampo-obituary?pid=1000000186687577&view=guestbook

 

Another colleague, Bud Hazelwood, was "shut in of the week in March":

http://www.grandvillebible.org/home/180002504/180002504/Images/3.26.2017.pdf

 

Incredible what you can find on the internet...

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I would assume McCain and Zeffirelli (and maybe Zarin because he was such a Mail no brainer) were the only ones to be 100% on both dying and obiting?

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Some brief Facebook searching reveals that Ron was still alive as of the 10th, and almost certainly still alive today (his sister and care giver hasn't said anything), but I think he's fell off the radar now in terms of possible obits anywhere other than the local-est of local news.

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Ron Villemaire is my Deathrace joker and he will definitely get an obit from his local news WMUR Manchester. They had three articles on him in December.

But, yeah, very little chance of him getting an obit now from one of the British tabloids, since the new Star Wars premiered a month ago and isn't trendy anymore.

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13 minutes ago, Death Impends said:

I would assume McCain and Zeffirelli (and maybe Zarin because he was such a Mail no brainer) were the only ones to be 100% on both dying and obiting?

Correct, the three of them.

 

I gave Bill Crider a 30% chance of a DDP QO, same as Morrie Boogaart (though that needs to be reduced, I guess, because the obitability of these local phenomena decreases swiftly), and even Spanky Manikan (well, if Julia Perez can...), Vanessa Goodwin at 70%, Lindy Remigino at 60% (Daily Mail gambit - but 75% is more like it?), Kevin McAllister at 70% (fringe TV names get the Daily Mail obit, but fringe-fringe names?), Nicki Flood at 40%, Ron Villemaire at 60% (if he, as I assume, dies very early in the year).

 

@ Spade:

Thanks for looking. I am a bit hesitant of checking too much on Facebook. It feels a little too private.

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15 minutes ago, Phantom of the Midway said:

Ron Villemaire is my Deathrace joker and he will definitely get an obit from his local news WMUR Manchester. They had three articles on him in December.

But, yeah, very little chance of him getting an obit now from one of the British tabloids, since the new Star Wars premiered a month ago and isn't trendy anymore.

 

That's one of the reasons I discarded him early. He was going to need to live X weeks from seeing the film, with no follow up QOs after...

 

See, I do sometimes listen to the advice of better deadpoolers... :P

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16 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

 

Lindy Remigino at 60% (Daily Mail gambit - but 75% is more like it?)

 

I'd put Remigino's chances of getting an obituary as higher than that.  I would have thought being an Olympic 100m gold medalist should warrant broadsheet and BBC treatment when the time comes.

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7 minutes ago, DevonDeathTrip said:

 

I'd put Remigino's chances of getting an obituary as higher than that.  I would have thought being a Olympic 100m gold medalist should warrant broadsheet and BBC treatment when the time comes.

Hmm, I don't know. that was so long ago... Other gold medalists hardly get anything more than an obit from their field's special interest magazines. The 100m race is higher profile though. He hadn't been mentioned by QO sources in years or even decades. Like those nobel prize winners without QO's even though they should get one. Still, I feel that he'll get an obit, more likely from the Daily Mail/AP than from the BBC though.

 

Edit: I guess he is likely to get some mention in the "history of the fastest men in the world" slideshows. But they still need to mention his death.

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