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The Rolling Probabilistic Ddp Scoreboard

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Research for Remigino brought up a mention from The Times four years ago. They have always been an interesting wildcard obit, so they might bring him up again when he dies...

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That's what I like about the DDP; a concerted exercise in media studies, oncology, physiology, statistics and moral philosophy all rolled into one.:)

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3 minutes ago, DevonDeathTrip said:

That's what I like about the DDP; a concerted exercise in media studies, oncology, physiology, statistics and moral philosophy all rolled into one.:)

 

Yes, and that's just Sister Wendy!

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Part of the beauty with the DDP's number of QO sources is how different players can have different approaches to a shared pick. And it means sometimes if your logic is wrong, you can still be saved by a source you weren't expecting!

 

I'm in the "Mail wires the safest bet for a Remigino obit" camp FWIW, though could see him getting more.

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On the case of Remigino, I have no doubt he'll get a QO when he goes. In fact, I think there's an 70/80% chance of a mention in The Times, who have mentioned him in recent years in obits of other US Olympians of that era.

 

Discounting Stokes for a moment, my biggest obit worries would be Toothill and Goodwin, and I decided that if they'd mentions in at least half the QO papers (and multiple ones at that in some), then the odds were high at least one would go back to them on death. Also Times references, I figure anyhow who gets a proper reference in The Times passes the fame barrier.... now watch me get that wrong!

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Why is Franco Zeffirelli considered a dead cert?I get he is old  and has health issues  and a set assault allegation but 100%??? does he have lung  cancer or something?Besides doesn't he allegedly have dementia so is unlikely to be bothered about the allegation?

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Maybe gut feeling has a factor into it? I'll admit I was a bit confused when I saw his name as well...

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I reckon it is over a 50% chance sure guy is nearly 95 and in poor health but can't seem as a cert like Zarin or McCain.

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Yeah, I wouldn't put Zeffirelli at 100%.

 

Frail old men who are constantly hospitalized can last forever, like Dilip Kumar, Richard Arvin Overton, and Sri Sri Wotshisface.

 

In fact, Zeffirelli isn't even anywhere near as frail as the rest of them.

 

He looks pretty bad, and was hospitalized for pneumonia in July, but that's about it. He's not in and out of the hospital like the other three.

 

Another commonly cited reason is that he was too frail to travel by plane to pick up some award. But that doesn't really mean anything. My grandfather is 78, overall in decent shape and likely still has years left, but hasn't been able to travel by plane for health reasons for a decade now. So the fact that a 95-year-old can't do it isn't exactly a sign of impending death. 

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1 minute ago, Phantom of the Midway said:

Yeah, I wouldn't put Zeffirelli at 100%.

 

Frail old men who are constantly hospitalized can last forever, like Dilip Kumar, Richard Arvin Overton, and Sri Sri Wotshisface.

 

In fact, Zeffirelli isn't even anywhere near as frail as the rest of them.

 

He looks pretty bad, and was hospitalized for pneumonia in July, but that's about it. He's not in and out of the hospital like the other three.

 

Another commonly cited reason is that he was too frail to travel by plane to pick up some award. But that doesn't really mean anything, my grandfather is 78, overall in decent shape and likely still has years left, but hasn't been able to travel by plane for health reasons for a decade now. So the fact that a 95-year-old can't do it isn't exactly a sign of impending death.

Yeah I have known frail 95 year olds linger.

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Just noticed I'm pretty much the only contender without Matt Cappotelli.

 

The Love Boat, Day in the Death, Dead Ends, Deceased Hose, Drollercoaster, Pan Breed, Shaun of the Dead 69, Heading Nowhere, Still Life, The Living End, Thomas Jefferson Survives - he's in all those teams.

 

I think him surviving is the most important factor for my DDP success this year. Moreso than my punts like Francis and Ricksen being successful.

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About Zeffirelli, yes, that's gut feeling- and how he looks.

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17 hours ago, Phantom of the Midway said:

Just noticed I'm pretty much the only contender without Matt Cappotelli.

 

The Love Boat, Day in the Death, Dead Ends, Deceased Hose, Drollercoaster, Pan Breed, Shaun of the Dead 69, Heading Nowhere, Still Life, The Living End, Thomas Jefferson Survives - he's in all those teams.

 

I think him surviving is the most important factor for my DDP success this year. Moreso than my punts like Francis and Ricksen being successful.

Forget all that.  He will never obit.  

 

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The Sun and Daily Mail had articles on Cappotelli's cancer in 2017,it's a safe bet they would also have an article announcing his death.

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Yes, The Sun is becoming Wrestling Central.

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On ‎1‎/‎14‎/‎2018 at 21:19, Spade_Cooley said:

Some brief Facebook searching reveals that Ron was still alive as of the 10th, and almost certainly still alive today (his sister and care giver hasn't said anything), but I think he's fell off the radar now in terms of possible obits anywhere other than the local-est of local news.

Nup, definitely dead now: http://www.wmur.com/article/air-force-veteran-who-was-granted-dying-wish-to-see-the-last-jedi-dies/15849773

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Question: how low of a score did Mark E Smith had? I thought he was one of my major gambles for this year...

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19 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

Question: how low of a score did Mark E Smith had? I thought he was one of my major gambles for this year...

4.00, so basically 50:50. I was expecting his death more than others but the 8 base points were not enough for such a gamble.

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Think that brings me to second place on the provisional leaderboard (even with Toothill not obiting, I think Cow still leads due to Falkholt’s demise)...

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No, you're first. I have Ian Toothill down to 5% obitability now (uniques and Drop 40 bonusses are in as well).

 

But maybe some of the non-forum teams are currently ahead. I won't get around to calculate scores for them until the weekend.

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Really? I thought Falkholt point adage was worth more, but maybe Forster’s full unique bonus did it. Still, even though I’m first on the virtual leaderboard, I still don’t think I’ll win the whole competition. I think Still Life and TJS still have better teams than me even with the Toothill nonobit. And if all your gambles come through gcreptile, you’ll probably be right up there imo...

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Probably anyone who guessed right on both Falkholt dying and Toothill not obiting is a serious contender right now. If they have a well-rounded enough team besides that that is. So Bucket of Blood and drol are both serious ones to watch despite a couple of weak picks on both sides, like Linda Nolan.

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Yeah, I forgot about them. They definitely both have decent teams, both could be easily considered a serious contender in the end, though they do have a certain amount of older non drop 40 picks. But those may be good enough for them if some other major gambles fail, but since it’s only January, there’s still a lot of time for picks to go through...

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33 minutes ago, Death Impends said:

Probably anyone who guessed right on both Falkholt dying and Toothill not obiting is a serious contender right now. If they have a well-rounded enough team besides that that is. So Bucket of Blood and drol are both serious ones to watch despite a couple of weak picks on both sides, like Linda Nolan.

Yes, I think Bucket of Blood might top the scoreboard. As of now, I have also seriously overrated Ami Brown (whom he picked), but I do not want to change the probabilities of dying throughout the year, so one has to mentally substract some points off her... assuming the cancer doesn't come back.

Drol is less than a point behind Joey.

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Uuuhh... Bucket of Blood is in fact ahead of Joey... but someone else is even further up, by quite a bit!

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