The Rolling Probabilistic Ddp Scoreboard

[Joey Russ 7,118]

Who is that person? 

EDIT: it’s Dead Ends, isn’t it?

[gcreptile 10,211]

Ok, this is a first Top 20.

Unique bonuses are mostly in, Drop 40 bonuses are all in

Obitability of Ian Toothill down to 5%, obitability of Kevin "Chalky" Carr down to 20%

All the popular hits already in, Elias, Cryne, Falkholt, Zarin, also Jim Anderton, Thomas Monson, and so on.... I think I'm up-to-date now.

 

1. Dead Ends (177,265)

2. Bucket of Blood (170,995)

3. Deceased Hose (170,44)

4. Dead Wait (169,795)

5. Day in the Death (167,575)

6. Drollercoaster (166,0525)

7. Still Life (165,845)

8. Wormer, He's a dead man! Etc etc... (165,1725) - I couldn't find Jan Burgess' age. I assume she's in her 60s. But obitability gets knocked down a bit because of that.

9. The Love Boat (164,325)

10. To Kill a Gabor Sister (163,3625)

11. Shaun of the Dead 69 (159,803)

12. GUN - Ami Brown (158,2925)

13. GUN - Gabriele Grunewald (158,1525) - ah, but now the irony, Gabriele Grunewald might be the better pick after all.... I might eventually change the odds of people like Ami Brown

14. The Living End (157,005)

15. Poochie Died on the Way Back to his Home Planet (156,9425)

16. People who I think might die in 2018 ..united.. (156,293)

17. Thomas Jefferson Survives (155,845) - If Toothill is lost, Laura Barry becomes a must-have.

18. DDP Tofoa (153,23) 

19. Heading Nowhere (151,5225)

20. I'm sorry for your trouble (150,89)

21. Banana's Peel Slippers (149,555)

22. Pan Breed (147,98)

 

A bit of an explanation: The three teams at the top had no name that was new to me, i.e. they went safe. And even if I feel that people like DJ Casper, Linda Nolan or Olivia Newton-John are not going to die this year, I still have to give them fairly high scores. These are the potential latter-half-of-the-year hits, like Daisy Berkowitz and Sharon Laws last year.

[gcreptile 10,211]

Here's a ranking of the point potential, i.e. what's the score with 20 hits (no birthday bonuses, unnatural death only for Marieke Vervoort). (This chart might yet be incomplete because of some missing unique bonuses...or errors)

 

1. Dead Ends (242)

2. Deceased Hose (241)

3. GUN - Gabriele Grunewald edition (239)

4. Shaun of the Dead 69 (238) 

5. Day in the Death (235)

5. Dead Wait (235)

7. Life Flies by so Fast (234)

7. GUN - Ami Brown edition (234)

7. People who I think might die in 2018 ...united (234)

10. GUN - Ami Brown edition (233)

11. Cancel My Appointments (231)

12. The Love Boat (230)

13. Sovereign Reaper (228)

14. Thomas Jefferson Survives (227)

15. Still Life (225)

15. Banana's Peel Slippers (225)

17. Pan Breed (223)

18. Poochie Died on the Way Back to his Home Planet (222) 

18. Wormer! He's a Dead Man! etc.. etc... (222) - without points for Jan Burgess - so potentially much higher!

20. Bucket of Blood (220) 

21. I'm sorry for your trouble (219)

 

These numbers are basically Shameless numbers. It's the strength of the Drop 40 bonus, a 32-point joker in Marieke Vervoort (compare to 24pts of Mark Sims), and quite a few young people with stage IV cancer.

The Drop 40 bonus is dividing people into two camps I think, the "hive mind" of the forum, i.e. joker Marieke Vervoort or some other forum only name (Elias, Cryne), and the more casual dead poolers. I could imagine that we will see some fairly big score divide around place 40-50.

[Joey Russ 7,118]

Like I said, I think this year’s competition is going to be very tough. The fact that right now none of the big researchers are in the top 3 shows that this year it may have to do with who has the best popular picks. It’ll be interesting to see how this evolves...

[gcreptile 10,211]

About Dead Ends' team... those Drop 40 bonuses of Catherine Nevin and Simon Ricketts are really strong. One might be a fraud, and one has obitability problems and his cancer is being managed. But statistically, a terminal brain tumour and pancreatic cancer are just too strong. I also have a feeling that out of Greg Gilbert and Stefan Karl Stefansson only one of them is going to die this year. But a 13-pointer with a 50:50 probability of dying is also pretty strong...

Then there is DJ Casper, who was looking ok in his vlog, a bit of a dicey pick, but statistically sound. Steve Gleason has outlived his prognosis, but he looks much better than Fernando Ricksen, he can still smile. I think his former bulky-ness extends his life.

[Grim Up North 3,565]

Interesting I only have my GG team at 237 not 238 but I have my predicted score at 154.8 so lower than your calcs.

 

Been a bad January for my team really. GG treatment working, Ami Brown 'cured', and a couple of deaths that I didn't want Jessica Falkholt and Mark E Smith - still a couple of deaths a month would do I guess 

[Death Impends 7,361]

18 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

Like I said, I think this year’s competition is going to be very tough. The fact that right now none of the big researchers are in the top 3 shows that this year it may have to do with who has the best popular picks. It’ll be interesting to see how this evolves...

 

In the age of the Drop 40 bonus and improved research games, being the most spot on with the popular names is probably the biggest factor now in the DDP. Like how last year's top 3 were unanimous in not picking Gilbert that year. And I know for a fact that to have a chance this year, especially w/o Toothill, I need to both do well with my uniques and be right on probably all three of my big omission risks (Ricksen and Lima seeing the year out and Goodwin not obiting).

[gcreptile 10,211]

8 minutes ago, Grim Up North said:

Interesting I only have my GG team at 237 not 238 but I have my predicted score at 154.8 so lower than your calcs.

I already found a mistake, Vanessa Goodwin is worth 10pts, not 9. So you're at 239! I wonder what the difference is....

[Grim Up North 3,565]

185 base + 36 drop 40 + 3 Unique plus 13 joker = 237 - I'm guessing the difference will be on the 185 due to age errors - yours or mine?

I've checked mine and I think they are right.

[Death Impends 7,361]

Do you have the right info for the only differentials? Grunewald is a unique in her 30s (13 points) whereas Ami Brown is in her 50s with no bonuses (9). So there should be a four point diff between the two teams, unless one of the other names was miscalculated for only one GUN?

[gcreptile 10,211]

Stefan Karl Stefansson	6,50	13,00
Stefan Karl Stefansson	6,5	13,00
DJ Casper	4,50	10,00
Liam Miller	11,05	13,00
Linda Nolan	4,80	12,00
John McCain	9,00	9,00
Nobby Stiles	7,00	10,00
Patrick Cryne	11,00	11,00
Leah Bracknell	10,80	12,00
Rayya Elias	12,00	12,00
Vanessa Goodwin	7,00	10,00
Tessa Jowell	7,00	10,00
Tiffany Youngs	6,00	10,00
Greg Gilbert	7,80	13,00
Gabriele Grunewald	3,64	13,00
Dean Francis	7,00	10,00
Total Biscuit	4,00	10,00
Steffan Lewis	4,20	10,00
Pete Frates	5,40	10,00
Marieke Vervoort	14,77	16,00
Simon Ricketts	8,19	12,00
	158,1525	239

 

 

Hmm... I could imagine that you only have 3 pts Drop 40 bonus for Stefan Karl instead of the 6. And then you might have Tessa Jowell at 11 pts, but she turned 70 last September. 

[Death Impends 7,361]

Could be Ricketts? He turns 50 this year, but not until May 17. So it looks like you already have him calculated as 9 base points plus Drop 40 bonus, but GUN still might have him under his current age.

[gcreptile 10,211]

2 minutes ago, Death Impends said:

Could be Ricketts? He turns 50 this year, but not until May 17. So it looks like you already have him calculated as 9 base points plus Drop 40 bonus, but GUN still might have him under his current age.

Yes, it's probably that instead of Jowell! The probabilistic score actually still has him at 10 base points. But the point potential has him at 9 base points. These cases are a little debatable. I mean, maybe 9,4 would be right...

 

I might change Rickett's probabilistic score after his birthday. 

 

[RadGuy 1,605]

Speaking of Bucket of Blood: noticed him and I only have 5 differentials.

 

Paul Alcock, Ami Brown, Matt Cappotelli, Jessica Falkholt, and Linda Nolan

vs.

Greg Gilbert, Philomena Lynott, Efrain Rios Montt, Stefan Karl Stefansson, and Nobby Stiles

 

So far it's 12-0 in his favor with Falkholt. 

 

In total, his equal 51 points and mine 50.

But when you factor in the fact that Vervoort is his joker and Gilbert is mine, that makes it 67 to 63 in his favor... assuming Vervoort dies of euthanasia.

 

However, I do think mine are better in general. But that could just be my bias towards my own picks, I guess a neutral source will have to judge which one of us has the better differentials. And, of course, time will tell...

[gcreptile 10,211]

4 minutes ago, Phantom of the Midway said:

Speaking of Bucket of Blood: noticed him and I only have 5 differentials.

 

Paul Alcock, Ami Brown, Matt Cappotelli, Jessica Falkholt, and Linda Nolan

vs.

Greg Gilbert, Philomena Lynott, Efrain Rios Montt, Stefan Karl Stefansson, and Nobby Stiles

 

So far it's 12-0 in his favor with Falkholt. 

 

In total, his equal 51 points and mine 50.

But when you factor in the fact that Vervoort is his joker and Gilbert is mine, that makes it 67 to 63 in his favor... assuming Vervoort dies of euthanasia.

 

However, I do think mine are better in general. But that could just be my bias towards my own picks, I guess a neutral source will have to judge which one of us has the better differentials. And, of course, time will tell...

Ah, the unique bonus for Efrain Rios Montt was still missing in your probabilistic score.

I think there are a few of such bonuses still missing.

[YoungWillz 18,948]

This thread is quite..clique-y, isn't it?

[Grim Up North 3,565]

I only have Vervoort at 13

and Ricketts at 13

 

They are the diffs.

[Death Impends 7,361]

4 hours ago, gcreptile said:

8. Wormer, He's a dead man! Etc etc... (164,3225) - ahem, who is Jan Burgess? I just gave 3 pts for him/her...

 

Found her - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-5217007/John-Burgesss-wife-diagnosed-aggressive-liver-cancer.html

[msc 17,712]

12 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

This thread is quite..clique-y, isn't it?

 

Is it?

[YoungWillz 18,948]

1 hour ago, msc said:

 

Is it?

Dunno, posed the question.

 

Almost incestuous...imo

[msc 17,712]

3 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

Dunno, posed the question.

 

Almost incestuous...imo

 

Usually question makers have some background to their query, otherwise it's just AA Gill territory.

 

Naturally the thread relies on who Gcreptile thinks are the top contenders for the DDP, but I'm sure if you asked nicely he'd put his maths to work on the 12 Lords/8 Ladies team.

[YoungWillz 18,948]

7 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Usually question makers have some background to their query, otherwise it's just AA Gill territory.

 

Naturally the thread relies on who Gcreptile thinks are the top contenders for the DDP, but I'm sure if you asked nicely he'd put his maths to work on the 12 Lords/8 Ladies team.

Not really. And no.

 

I'm just faintly amused that so much analysis goes on for a few teams, thus ruling out consideration of everyone else who has entered.

 

I'm guessing that not every team has been gone through in some detail before arriving at these honoured few. If so, fair play. Same with JR's thread which initially ruled out the "remote" possibility that someone other than a few teams could possibly win.

 

I'll step back now. Intriguing to watch as it develops...like a slow year long Polaroid.

[msc 17,712]

 

 

Well, I can at least guarantee one of 27 Deathlist forum members will win the Deathlist Cup!

[gcreptile 10,211]

22 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

Not really. And no.

 

I'm just faintly amused that so much analysis goes on for a few teams, thus ruling out consideration of everyone else who has entered.

 

I'm guessing that not every team has been gone through in some detail before arriving at these honoured few. If so, fair play. Same with JR's thread which initially ruled out the "remote" possibility that someone other than a few teams could possibly win.

 

I'll step back now. Intriguing to watch as it develops...like a slow year long Polaroid.

I cannot calculate scores for every team...well I could, but it would take weeks or months.

 

But as the year goes on, the official scoreboard might change and the teams that do very well, will all be calculated, too.

[YoungWillz 18,948]

Just now, gcreptile said:

I cannot calculate scores for every team...well I could, but it would take weeks or months.

 

But as the year goes on, the official scoreboard might change and the teams that do very well, will all be calculated, too.

No offence intended, this is your baby, after all.

 

Personally I'm rooting for Hearse of the Year Show, a name which I thought would have been used before and which I find tremendously funny.