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gcreptile

The Rolling Probabilistic Ddp Scoreboard

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There are certainly a couple of people in the list of the lost that I don’t think should be there. If I was older and I had more knowledge on them, I would be tempted to submit a piece to the Guardian on those few that I think should’ve been hits...

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I'm keeping quietly confident Heimel will get something eventually. Especially given how much of the year is left. Though it's disappointing Guardian still hasn't stepped up to the plate for a name who seemed practically made for their obits section.

 

It's strange, I thought Toothill and Heimel were both rather safe obits and I'm still waiting on both (and very doubtful the former gets anything). And yet crazier risks of mine in the past like Karen Muir, Chocolate Armenteros, and Julia Perez all paid off quickly.

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On 27.1.2018 at 04:04, Death Impends said:

An update!

https://startsat60.com/health/big-issues/cancer/john-burgo-burgess-gives-emotional-update-on-wifes-cancer-battle

 

Her actual name is Gianna Burgess and she had surgery which apparently went ok.

 

As for the probabilistic scoreboard...not much to update recently...

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On 10.1.2018 at 20:22, gcreptile said:

Out of about 1300 living people on my longlist, only 11 currently have the 100% (for 2018):

John McCain, Lindy Remigino, Ron Villemaire (Star Wars fan), Kevin McAllister (DWTS something of a something)Nicki Flood (cancer mum), Spanky Manikan (who doesn't know him?), Vanessa Goodwin, Bobby Zarin, Morrie Boogaart (hat-knitting guy), Bill Crider and Franco Zeffirelli.

 

 

Google leads me to believe that Nicole Flood (Rockhampton cancer mum) died on march 26th. But the Google link only goes to an obitary notice search machine.

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Not entirely sure where to put it, but Spade’s comment on him being sure Forster would obit does make me wonder what would’ve been the 2018 DQSBP lineup. Some names would be obvious (Bracknell, Cryne, Elias, Jowell, and McCain sure things since almost everyone, if not everyone, chose them), but I’m more thinking of the obscurer picks that seem like Spade picks...

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I'd really love to know why Spade didnt pick Paul Van Zandvliet.

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27 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

Not entirely sure where to put it, but Spade’s comment on him being sure Forster would obit does make me wonder what would’ve been the 2018 DQSBP lineup. Some names would be obvious (Bracknell, Cryne, Elias, Jowell, and McCain sure things since almost everyone, if not everyone, chose them), but I’m more thinking of the obscurer picks that seem like Spade picks...

 

Mitzi Shore, Pearse Lyons. Maybe Kamala.

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17 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

I'd really love to know why Spade didnt pick Paul Van Zandvliet.

 

Blind spot when it comes to the egg-chasing tbh.

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I originally thought that Jacqui Forster’s death would bring me up to the top of this since I considered her such a big risk. However, having a look at what was probably the probalistic score for her originally plus seeing where I’m at point wise made me realize that I might (just might) be able to crack the top 3. Oh well, there’s still time yet (though I still don’t think I’ll win this)...

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I think you are at 3rd place. But I won't update for just one person. 

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On 20.2.2018 at 12:33, gcreptile said:

I calculated scores for the Blight House and it enters the Top 20. I didn't calculate scores for A Good Innings yet, but I'll do it if one of their more unusual picks score.

Hmm...

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Tessa Jowell is the first big major contenders hit since Vanessa Goodwin. I mean, there was Emma Hannigan, Efrain Montt, Jacqui Forster, and Emily Kendrick, but all of those were unique pick, while Jowell was on a bunch of contending teams...

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Update: Ray Wilson, Jacqui Forster, Tessa Jowell. No change yet to Bessie Camm (had her at 100% obitability, and 80% chance of dying). Shalom Ouanounou unchanged at 50% obitability - but looks like the coin toss will soon happen. Larissa Podermanski down to 5% obitability (I think the window has closed pretty fast here.). Hope I didn't miss any death among the about 40 teams I watch. Wait... I think I didn't yet name Efrain Rios Montt here, though I had it changed a while ago.

 

1. Dead Ends (184,335) -

2. Day in the Death (184,165) +4

3. Bucket of Blood (182,455) -1

4. Deceased Hose (181,97) -1

5. The Love Boat (181,125) -1

6. To Kill a Gabor Sister (176,0225) +3

7. Dead Wait (175,325) -2

8. Still Life (173,195) -1

9. Wormer, he's a dead man!,.... (173,1425) -1

10. Ethnic Cleansing (171,54) +1

11. Drollercoaster (170,5125) -1

12. Pan Breed (166,5) +1

13. GUN Ami Brown (166,2425) +1

14. GUN Gabriele Grunewald (166,1025) +1

15. Poochie died on the way back to his home planet (165,4025) +1

16. The Living End (164,955) +1

17. Shaun of the Dead 69 (164,153) -5

18. Thomas Jefferson Survives (162,445) -

19. People who I think might die in 2018 United (161,243) --

20. Heading Nowhere (161,0325) --

 

The differentials won this time with Jacqui Forster and Efrain Rios Montt. Tessa Jowell was also a differential for Sean, in that he was kind of the only who didn't pick her.

 

I might decrease some scores of yet-to-die people once half of the year is over to reflect that time is running out, especially with Marieke Vervoort.

 

 

 

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Did you score A Good Innings yet?

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3 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

Did you score A Good Innings yet?

Partly, I still haven't made up my mind about three of the cancer mums. With 17/20 scored, he/she is at 145,25 pts. I think these three other cancer mums are not that likely to obit. The team would end up in the mid 150s.

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Last update before I start reducing points for still alive people ... :cough: Marieke Vervoort :cough:

 

Names: Big Van Vader, DJ Fontana, Mary Wilson, Jalal Nuriddin, Dean Francis, John Bain

No change yet for David Shutts and Shalom Ouanounou (still waiting for the Taquisha McKitty court decision). Anzaki's obitability down to 5%. Bessie Camm's death confirmed.

 

1. Deceased Hose 187,97 (new leader!)

2. Dead Ends 187,335

3. Day In The Death 187,165

4. Bucket of Blood 185,455

5. The Love Boat 184,125

6. Dead Wait 182,725

7. To Kill a Gabor Sister 179,0225

8. Still Life 176,195

9. GUN I 175,2425

10. GUN II 175,1025

11. Ethnic Cleansing 174,54

12. Poochie died on the way back to his home planet 174,4025

13. Drollercoaster 173,5125

14. Wormer, he's a dead man! 173,1425  

15. The Living End 167,955

16. Shaun of the Dead 69 167,153

17. Heading Nowhere 164,0325

18. Pan Breed 162,96

19. Thomas Jefferson Survives 162,945

20. People who I think might die in 2018 United 161,243

 

No comment, no time.

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Update, now with a score reduction to reflect that half of the year is already over. Technically, I simply reduce the score of all people whose "mortality" is below 100% by a third. Whenever someone on my longlist dies, the chance of dying goes up to 100%, so all the people alive have their score reduced by 33%. Exception: John McCain, as I mentioned, I have his chance of dying already at 100%, so his score doesn't get reduced - I was too lazy to make the exception in the formula. Franco Zeffirelli would be another case, but he's irrelevant for the virtual scoreboard.

Anyway, why 33%? Because some people were likely to be latter-year deaths anyway, and expected as such. Some were not and are hanging around for longer than generally expected (like Philomena Lynott, or maybe Charlotte Rae). So 33% as a reduction after 50% of the year is ok for me.

Anyway, this gives an advantage to the teams who already have higher scores and more hits. Joey and Bucked of Blood currently have 10 alive people left on their teams, so there's a points reduction only for these 10 people. There are also those who have 10 people still alive, but fewer hits - like Thomas Jefferson Survives (8 hits, 2 non-obits), or 20 Hits no Problem (9 hits, 1 non-obit), or Pity Da Foolz (8 hits, 2 non-obits).

I think these teams are the only ones with 10 people still alive, so they get punished a little less than the other teams with at least 11 survivors.

Consequently, they enjoy an advantage on the new scoreboard over the other teams - and the result looks like this:

 

1. Day in the Death (166,14) +2

2. Bucket of Blood (164,66) +2

3. The Love Boat (159,61) +2

4. Deceased Hose (158,94) -3

5. Dead Ends (156,93) -3

6. Drollercoaster (154,7) +7 (!)

7. Still Life (152,83) +1

8. Ethnic Cleansing (151,73) +3

9. Thomas Jefferson Survives (149,56) +10 (!!)

10. To Kill a Gabor Sister (149,38) -3

11. Dead Wait (148,44) -5

12. Wormer, he's a dead man! ... (147,94) +2

13. Poochie Died on the Way Back to his Home Planet (147,5) -1

14. The Living End (147,43) +1

15. Pan Breed (147,31) +3

16. Heading Nowhere (147,09) +1

17. GUN Ami Brown (145,19) -8

18. GUN Gabriele Grunewald (145,1) -8

19. The Blight House (142,74) Re-Entry

20. Shaun of the Dead 69 (141,8) -4

 

The hits are Matt Cappotelli and David Shutts, TJS returns to the Top 10, Colin Butts is a non-obit - which is why Deadsox loses his top spot to Joey and BoB, who, after all, are one hit ahead, and then there are Joe Thompson, Joe Jackson and Johnny Hubbard for the B-teams.

Drol and TJS win big. Drol is one of the few who did not joker Marieke Vervoort, so he lost less than many others. 

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I've also got 10 living people too and 2 non-obits (Anzaki and Toothill). Not that it changes anything!

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Ah ok, thanks, and sorry. Too many high-profile non-obits this year.

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Aye, the wrong people not obiting, but SF fans or cancer mums everywhere. And I think (?) less folk picking cancer mums in general on DDP this year too?

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The "pure" cancer mums are probably the same as last year, we have Sara Chivers and a lot of once-or-twice-picked people, Emily Kendrick, Julie Shaw, Lynda Spargo, Sheri Ekladios....

 

But I guess we had no vaguely-prominent-yet-mostly-terminal ill people this year. Ok, Kris Hallenga is still alive, but there's no Kate Granger, and no Rowena Kincaid. Also no Mark Sims. Did we have a new Joey Feek? Maybe Jessica Falkholt?

We have different famous-for-being-ill types though. Ian Toothill, Pete Frates, Noel Conway, possibly even Satoru Anzaki.

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It’s nice to see me at the top of the virtual scoreboard for the first time this year, but frankly I would be amazed if I was still leading at the end of the year. I feel like I lack good picks for me to continue holding my lead, as everyone picked Bracknell and McCain (and the former might put me at a disadvantage since some people jokered her) while Stefansson is the only death of everyone else I consider likely at this point. Still, it’s nice to be in the lead while it lasts...

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Chivers was the only one IIRC to get multiple Mail articles while alive which for nonentity cancer mums is the major boost from "big risk" to "relatively safe".

 

Whereas even some of the discussed FFBIs who QOed like that one Star Wars fan weren't picked at all because everyone assumed they'd be fully forgotten about by the time they died. Never would've guessed watching a film is seen as a bigger accomplishment than climbing Everest...

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On 10/01/2018 at 20:22, gcreptile said:

Out of about 1300 living people on my longlist, only 11 currently have the 100% (for 2018):

John McCain, Lindy Remigino, Ron Villemaire (Star Wars fan), Kevin McAllister (DWTS something of a something), Nicki Flood (cancer mum), Spanky Manikan (who doesn't know him?), Vanessa Goodwin, Bobby Zarin, Morrie Boogaart (hat-knitting guy), Bill Crider and Franco Zeffirelli.

 

 

9 out of 11 gone with 5,5 months left. But will Franco Zeffirelli be the one man out?

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An update: Laura Barry who is a huge hit for DI, Charlotte Rae, Aretha Franklin, Vajpayee for some teams places 20-30 I have in my list, Jarrod Lyle - wow, picked by "People I think might die in 2018 united", Mary Carlisle, Oliver Dragojevic (B-Teams), Lietzke, Paul Madeley... 

 

Wow, actually quite a few hits... I also reduced the obitability of Shalom Ouanounou and Lindy Remigino to 25% (from 50% and 60%). The Taquisha McKitty case is still going on, but it was a bit disappointing that the well-timed death of Jahi McMath didn't result in some encompassing "How do we define death" - article. Lindy Remigino has no ongoing story, but I just can't quite accept that the fastest man of the world, at one point, doesn'T yet get an obit, maybe even at the end of the year.

 

1. Bucket of Blood 166,66 +1

2. Day in the Death 166,14 -1

3. Thomas Jefferson Survives 163,55 +6

4. Deceased Hose 158,94 ---

5. Dead Ends 156,93 ---

6. The Love Boat 155,86 -3

7. Drollercoaster 154,7 -1

8. Still Life 152,83 -1

9. Dead Wait 152,64 +2

10. Ethnic Cleansing 151,73 -2

11. To Kill a Gabor Sister 151,38 -1

12. Wormer, he's a dead man! etc... 147,94 ---

13. Poochie Died on the Way back to his Home Planet 147,5 ---

14. Pan Breed 147,3 +1

15. Heading Nowhere 147,09 +1  

16. The Living End 145,33 -2

17. GUN I 145,19 ---

18. GUN II 145,1 ---

19. The Blight House 144,74  ---

20. Shaun of the Dead 69 141,8 ---

(....)

20 Hits no Problem 118,38

 

New record position for DI whose bad luck at the beginning of the year has been compensated with several positive developments. Bucket of Blood is now the new leader because of Charlotte Rae. I have seen people declaring Ethin Cleansing a favourite, but as the year is soon 2/3rds over and Leah Bracknell is still alive, it's not happening here.

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