The Rolling Probabilistic Ddp Scoreboard

[Toast 14,805]

44 minutes ago, msc said:

55 minutes ago, Toast said:

This sort of thing would be unlikely to happen if the rule reverted to one main team only, plus theme teams.  Just saying.

 

Or people in general could stop taking it all so seriously? It's just a bit of fun, after all.

 

 

Well .... when I started playing the DDP,  you were only allowed ONE team.  Total.  No theme teams.

Obviously that rule wouldn't have been difficult to get around, but I think people did generally stick to one team.

Having only one shot concentrated one's efforts most effectively.

 

[Joey Russ 7,119]

I feel as if a lot of you are missing the point. Even Cancerous Hatred's 15/20 difference has some more wriggle than a 19/20, which would very likely take up two spots wherever he's placed with potential of eliminating a spot for someone else.

Ah, my opinion doesn't fucking matter. I believe some of it is bias against me, and if I did the same thing as Grim it would probably be a different story...

[Spade_Cooley 9,019]

Ladies, ladies you're both pretty.

[DevonDeathTrip 2,288]

Hopelessly indifferent here 

- Although I do sometimes wonder what all the collective thought devoted to deadpooling might have achieved if it had been diverted elsewhere.  I mean, we could have come up with a cure for cancer by now! 

[Death Impends 7,361]

7 minutes ago, DevonDeathTrip said:

Hopelessly indifferent here 

- Although I do sometimes wonder what all the collective thought devoted to deadpooling might have achieved if it had been diverted elsewhere.  I mean, we could have come up with a cure for cancer by now! 

 

That's a very dark thought actually. The people who could cure cancer choose not to because it keeps their hobby viable

[msc 17,737]

3 minutes ago, Death Impends said:

 

That's a very dark thought actually. The people who could cure cancer choose not to because it keeps their hobby viable

 

Right that's the plot of the next book. Err, yes, very dark thought there.

[YoungWillz 18,967]

24 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

I feel as if a lot of you are missing the point. Even Cancerous Hatred's 15/20 difference has some more wriggle than a 19/20, which would very likely take up two spots wherever he's placed with potential of eliminating a spot for someone else.

Ah, my opinion doesn't fucking matter. I believe some of it is bias against me, and if I did the same thing as Grim it would probably be a different story...

No bias here Joey. I rather like your contribution to the forum.

 

Pushing the rules (or non-rules)  is nothing new, like MK's use of Death Row contestants in the Deathrace or gcreptile's use of a "theme" as "people who have terminal illness" (that's a guess btw, I never really knew the "theme").

 

Things may annoy us, we'll vent, we'll look again and wonder what we got so worked up about. It may lead to a change in the rules, it may not. And it looks like GUN isn't alone in his 19/20 ditto picks. It's not for everyone.

 

Ah well, just remember to bring it up for next year's suggestions on the DDP and who knows?

[Death Impends 7,361]

Incidentally, since we're in a B-Team convo again, thanks for the "some wonderful names" comment on mine gcreptile, as I think that backs up my intentions w having one. I wanted to look more intriguing than anything, as with the way the competition has evolved a team with victory hopes has to look rather conventional (basically the certs who make the Drop 40 (it's a great bonus, mind, giving extra weight to proper celebs) + obscurer certs or 50/50s who are young enough + fringes/FFBI names + maybe a strategic oldie or two + maybe one or two eclectics).

 

I understand the B-Team arguments on both sides and I'm not going to plunge more into it, just my own personal perspective...

[Joey Russ 7,119]

I really do like a lot of your names on your B Team Death Impends. It really does show a lot of eclectic and very interesting names (with your youngest being DJ Casper I think?). Alva Campbell, for example, might be one of the very rare examples of a person on death row that scores points cause of other natural causes, while Jalal Mansur Nuriddin is considered the grandfather of rap music. Genesis P-Orridge is also a potential rare hit, this time being a person of neither male or female gender. What I'm really proud of, however, is that I get to share a very artistic director on my own B Team with you, Nobuhiko Obayashi. Really fell in love with that pick when I found him, but he's way too old to put him on my own main team unfortanetly. 

I feel that my B Team is also eclectic in it's own right, though I would probably remove a couple of names if I had to send it again (not necessarily for health reasons, but instead to put other interesting picks in place). Andretti, West (who was only a sub), and Wright would definitely be out. Maybe Gleason and Rowe as well. But I like the other picks on that team,

even the other likely fraudster (who, if B Teams are somehow able to stay, will probably stay on till he dies tbh)...

[msc 17,737]

On 1/5/2018 at 17:37, gcreptile said:

 

I will update all scores Sunday or so, will do it step by step. MPFC and msc's teams are next (I have a feeling his B-team will score higher than the A-team).

 

Just to say the thread got a bit side tracked (as if we'd go off topic on this forum!) but I am still interested to hear about this when you've got the time.

[gcreptile 10,214]

I wasn't quite correct. I have Mary Wilson basically just as an age-based pick. So something like 30% chance of dying of a 5-pointer. Mike Pintek most likely won't obit, BUT IF... he's gold. Just like Kevin McAllister. 

David Cervinski could also turn out to be a golden pick. I think my score doesn't reflect his Guardian coverage yet.

 

So your B-Team may well catch up a little. But for the moment it looks like this:

 

 

	Pan Breed				Here's who you could have won
	Name	Expected score	base points		Name	Expected score	base points
1	Leah Bracknell	10,80	12,00	1	Marieke Vervoort	12,49	13,00
1	Leah Bracknell	10,8	12,00	1	Marieke Vervoort	12,4925	13,00
2	John McCain	9,00	9,00	2	Jessica Falkholt	6,15	10,00
3	Kathleen Blanco	4,20	7,00	3	Fernando Ricksen	6,75	13,00
4	Patrick Cryne	7,47	7,00	4	Dean Francis	8,05	10,00
5	Rayya Elias	9,00	9,00	5	Kevin Carr	4,58	10,00
6	Greg Gilbert	7,44	13,00	6	Pete Stokes	4,34	10,00
7	Philomena Lynott	4,54	5,00	7	Hugh Masekela	5,53	7,00
8	Ian Toothill	5,77	10,00	8	David Cervinski	3,71	10,00
9	Vanessa Goodwin	7,42	9,00	9	Peter Overton	3,35	8,00
10	Catherine Nevin	5,04	8,00	10	Kevin McAllister	2,00	12,00
11	Carl Piddington	7,34	9,00	11	Ami Brown	3,78	9,00
12	Tessa Jowell	6,37	10,00	12	Paul Alcock	4,00	8,00
13	Matt Cappotelli	4,64	10,00	13	Mike Pintek	1,87	11,00
14	Stefan Karl Stefansson	6,35	13,00	14	Angus Sinclair	5,11	7,00
15	Liam Miller	10,80	13,00	15	Bernie DeKoven	4,37	10,00
16	Pete Stokes	4,34	13,00	16	Lindy Remigino	3,60	6,00
17	Satoru Anzaki	3,84	6,00	17	Charlotte Rae	5,85	5,00
18	Pete Frates	5,40	10,00	18	Mary Wilson	1,20	5,00
19	Steffan Lewis	4,20	10,00	19	Chris Mortensen	3,32	8,00
20	Devin Lima	7,00	10,00	20	Johnny Hubbard	5,40	6,00
All		141,744	205	All		107,938	191

 

 

Edit: I have Mary Wilson's chance of dying at 30% actually (0,3*4), because I always find it ominous if old people are silent. But I think she just recnelty gave an interview? That's not in the score. I would get mad if updated daily.

[The Dead Cow 620]

Seeing as you've made estimates for pretty much every other B-team posted on the forum, would you mind doing so with Still More Life, if that's not too much bother for you.

[Death Impends 7,361]

As a bit of a heads up for some of your base points, Mary Wilson should be 4 points as a centenarian. Cryne (b. 1951) and Lynott (b. 1930) are also both a point younger.

[msc 17,737]

7 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

I wasn't quite correct. I have Mary Wilson basically just as an age-based pick. So something like 20% chance of dying of a 5-pointer. Mike Pintek most likely won't obit, BUT IF... he's gold. Just like Kevin McAllister. 

David Cervinski could also turn out to be a golden pick. I think my score doesn't reflect his Guardian coverage yet.

 

So your B-Team may well catch up a little. But for the moment it looks like this:

 

 

	Pan Breed				Here's who you could have won
	Name	Expected score	base points		Name	Expected score	base points
1	Leah Bracknell	10,80	12,00	1	Marieke Vervoort	12,49	13,00
1	Leah Bracknell	10,8	12,00	1	Marieke Vervoort	12,4925	13,00
2	John McCain	9,00	9,00	2	Jessica Falkholt	6,15	10,00
3	Kathleen Blanco	4,20	7,00	3	Fernando Ricksen	6,75	13,00
4	Patrick Cryne	7,47	7,00	4	Dean Francis	8,05	10,00
5	Rayya Elias	9,00	9,00	5	Kevin Carr	4,58	10,00
6	Greg Gilbert	7,44	13,00	6	Pete Stokes	4,34	10,00
7	Philomena Lynott	4,54	5,00	7	Hugh Masekela	5,53	7,00
8	Ian Toothill	5,77	10,00	8	David Cervinski	3,71	10,00
9	Vanessa Goodwin	7,42	9,00	9	Peter Overton	3,35	8,00
10	Catherine Nevin	5,04	8,00	10	Kevin McAllister	2,00	12,00
11	Carl Piddington	7,34	9,00	11	Ami Brown	3,78	9,00
12	Tessa Jowell	6,37	10,00	12	Paul Alcock	4,00	8,00
13	Matt Cappotelli	4,64	10,00	13	Mike Pintek	1,87	11,00
14	Stefan Karl Stefansson	6,35	13,00	14	Angus Sinclair	5,11	7,00
15	Liam Miller	10,80	13,00	15	Bernie DeKoven	4,37	10,00
16	Pete Stokes	4,34	13,00	16	Lindy Remigino	3,60	6,00
17	Satoru Anzaki	3,84	6,00	17	Charlotte Rae	5,85	5,00
18	Pete Frates	5,40	10,00	18	Mary Wilson	1,20	5,00
19	Steffan Lewis	4,20	10,00	19	Chris Mortensen	3,32	8,00
20	Devin Lima	7,00	10,00	20	Johnny Hubbard	5,40	6,00
All		141,744	205	All		107,938	191

 

Awesome, thanks!

 

Alas, I think Mary Wilson has a base of 4 points? As she's 102 this month.  From what I read above, my B-team has folk likely to die but unlikely to obit, but if that latter happens, it's gold. However, Pan Breed has a bunch of folk less likely to die (? - Cappotelli, Frtes, Lewis) on your calculations and if they go... Shall be interesting to see, none the less!

[gcreptile 10,214]

2 minutes ago, Death Impends said:

As a bit of a heads up for some of your base points, Mary Wilson should be 4 points as a centenarian. Cryne (b. 1951) and Lynott (b. 1930) are also both a point younger.

Oh thanks. I do the base score from memory. It's correct in the expected score (I go by year of birth there).

[Death Impends 7,361]

Ah got it. Thought you might've had some inaccurate info and wanted to make sure.

[gcreptile 10,214]

18 minutes ago, The Dead Cow said:

Seeing as you've made estimates for pretty much every other B-team posted on the forum, would you mind doing so with Still More Life, if that's not too much bother for you.

Not today, but next weekend!

 

I also have The Heeflich Maneouvre on my list, but I don't know his joker...

[gcreptile 10,214]

10 minutes ago, Death Impends said:

Ah got it. Thought you might've had some inaccurate info and wanted to make sure.

Thanks. I was so sure of Patrick Cryne being 70 or 71 even though my longlist said differently. I might have switched him if I had looked at my list....

 

Edit: I have Patrick Cryne at 90% chance of dying in 2018, and a 10% chance of being on the Drop 40 (that's how the 7,47 are created). That was before I saw that almost everyone who posted their team here had picked him. The chance must now be at least at 50%.

[Grim Up North 3,565]

Latest Gabriel Grunewald update suggests she is responding well to treatment (I'm pleased for her) and I've nudged her down to 10% likely to die this year. Nudges me beneath 150 on my own score expectation for GUN Fishing.

[Death Impends 7,361]

I always try to find a DOB for names I pick or at least seriously consider. I even have a birthday for Cryne (March 17), I think I found it because of some happy birthday tweets?

 

For the heck of it, here's how Cryne's info looks on my Excel entry, to show a glimpse of my method. Forgot to add the bit that he sold the club, I guess because he was already a lock by then:

 

 

[msc 17,737]

17 minutes ago, Death Impends said:

I always try to find a DOB for names I pick or at least seriously consider. I even have a birthday for Cryne (March 17), I think I found it because of some happy birthday tweets?

 

For the heck of it, here's how Cryne's info looks on my Excel entry, to show a glimpse of my method. Forgot to add the bit that he sold the club, I guess because he was already a lock by then:

 

 

 

Ah, that looks like my long/shortlist, but much tidier!

 

Here's a few off it for example:

 

1.       Latham Grant – 23 – cancer spread to brain but obit very shaky (exp: april 2018)

2.       Dean Francis 44 (terminal bowel/liver cancer – alt treatments) BACK ON CHEMO (exp: Nov 2018-Nov 2019)

3.       David Cervinski 48 (30/70 obit odds) – stage IV melanoma  (Feb 2018-Nov 2019) (v.brief Guardian reference)

4.       Vanessa Goodwin – 49 – terminal brain cancer/mentioned by Daily Mail/Guardian/Telegraph/Sun (avg: Nov 2018)

5.       Ian Toothill – 49 – terminal bowel cancer since Dec 2015 – mentioned by Guardian/Telegraph/Sun/Times/Daily Mail (March 2017-Jan 2019)

6.       Rayya Elias – 58 – liver/pancreatic since Sept 2016 (exp: March 2018)

7.       Paul Alcock – 65 – stage iv throat incurable but treatable since Nov 2016  (exp: oct 2018)

8.       Patrick Cryne 68 – terminal bowel cancer (Jan 2018-Nov 2019)

9.       Tessa Jowell – 71 – glioblastoma, DROP 40 (exp: Feb 2019)

10.   Kathleen Blanco – 76 – ocular/liver cancer – Oliver Sacks had it (Telegraph, Times, ft, guardian, Mail, Mirror)

[Sir Creep 7,011]

31 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

Thanks. I was so sure of Patrick Cryne being 70 or 71 even though my longlist said differently. I might have switched him if I had looked at my list....

 

Edit: I have Patrick Cryne at 90% chance of dying in 2018, and a 10% chance of being on the Drop 40 (that's how the 7,47 are created). That was before I saw that almost everyone who posted their team here had picked him. The chance must now be at least at 50%.

Y'all only picking him cuz last year's winner had him as a rare miss.
Inverse Joker written all over it.  You prolly had Bracknell at 90% last year, another one I told you wasn't going to die.  
As for the Elvis Aron Presley moment, the letter was written by Patrick CLYNE.  You've all been duped!

SC

 

Patrick Clyne's emotional letter in full

 

"I am living on borrowed time. I live in pain, but living is better than the alternative. Cancer is insidious, cruel and rapacious and I implore everyone to have regular checks to stop it gaining hold.

"Recent months have brought into focus the things that are important to me. I have spent a lot of my life pursuing the ultimately pointless when there were better things to do. My family have always been important to me but I should have spent more time telling them so.

"I do now and it creates joyfulness in our relationships. Of course, my football club has been important too and I am lucky that my family have shared my love of Barnsley FC.

"For much of the time since I became the club's buyer of last resort, I allowed others to run the club, fearing that I did not know enough to win the respect and supporter of the 'football people'. It is ironic therefore that we enjoyed one of our most successful periods when I did take up the mantle ending in two successful visits to Wembley.

"Maybe, one day before too long I will tell the secrets of how we did it. Certainly, the whole club working as one was instrumental. I don't know if we will ever repeat the sense of togetherness of that season, which extended also to the fans, their tolerance and incredible support.

"There are many things I wanted to achieve before my custodianship of our fabulous team ended at the hand of the grim reaper. Of course, I wanted to see us get back to the Premier League and make since enhancements to the iconic West Stand. On a personal level, I wanted to bring back together all the 1912 cup final medals, but I only managed to retrieve five.

"Most people realise I was a reluctant custodian but what has made it bearable against the occasional cruelty of the internet world is the kindness shown to me by so many fans on a personal basis.

"People are not shy in coming forward and telling me they appreciate my efforts, even if I have fallen short of their aspirations. I receive many letters and cards from fans who share with me their memories and best wishes. I am grateful to them all.

"Regarding this season, I think we will get stronger as it goes on and our team gels, not unlike the double Wembley season. I do not expect to live to see the ultimate outcome, but I travel in hope.

"I wish you all a good football season and thank you for your kindness down the years."

[gcreptile 10,214]

1 minute ago, Sir Creep said:

You prolly had Bracknell at 90% last year, another one I told you wasn't going to die.  

Hey, I had her at 80%! Neither had I Rayya Elias, nor Errol Christie nor Gord Downie, nor King Michael at 100%. (King Michael was 90-95, Gord Downie at 80% or so).

I said before that I rarely give out the 100%. You always have the occasional surprise. And I am on record saying that one of the "locks" of 2017 will survive the year. Well, two did, but Elias just barely.

 

Out of about 1300 living people on my longlist, only 11 currently have the 100% (for 2018):

John McCain, Lindy Remigino, Ron Villemaire (Star Wars fan), Kevin McAllister (DWTS something of a something), Nicki Flood (cancer mum), Spanky Manikan (who doesn't know him?), Vanessa Goodwin, Bobby Zarin, Morrie Boogaart (hat-knitting guy), Bill Crider and Franco Zeffirelli.

 

 

[Joey Russ 7,119]

10 minutes ago, Sir Creep said:

Y'all only picking him cuz last year's winner had him as a rare miss.
Inverse Joker written all over it.  You prolly had Bracknell at 90% last year, another one I told you wasn't going to die.  
As for the Elvis Aron Presley moment, the letter was written by Patrick CLYNE.  You've all been duped!

SC

 

Patrick Clyne's emotional letter in full

 

"I am living on borrowed time. I live in pain, but living is better than the alternative. Cancer is insidious, cruel and rapacious and I implore everyone to have regular checks to stop it gaining hold.

"Recent months have brought into focus the things that are important to me. I have spent a lot of my life pursuing the ultimately pointless when there were better things to do. My family have always been important to me but I should have spent more time telling them so.

"I do now and it creates joyfulness in our relationships. Of course, my football club has been important too and I am lucky that my family have shared my love of Barnsley FC.

"For much of the time since I became the club's buyer of last resort, I allowed others to run the club, fearing that I did not know enough to win the respect and supporter of the 'football people'. It is ironic therefore that we enjoyed one of our most successful periods when I did take up the mantle ending in two successful visits to Wembley.

"Maybe, one day before too long I will tell the secrets of how we did it. Certainly, the whole club working as one was instrumental. I don't know if we will ever repeat the sense of togetherness of that season, which extended also to the fans, their tolerance and incredible support.

"There are many things I wanted to achieve before my custodianship of our fabulous team ended at the hand of the grim reaper. Of course, I wanted to see us get back to the Premier League and make since enhancements to the iconic West Stand. On a personal level, I wanted to bring back together all the 1912 cup final medals, but I only managed to retrieve five.

"Most people realise I was a reluctant custodian but what has made it bearable against the occasional cruelty of the internet world is the kindness shown to me by so many fans on a personal basis.

"People are not shy in coming forward and telling me they appreciate my efforts, even if I have fallen short of their aspirations. I receive many letters and cards from fans who share with me their memories and best wishes. I am grateful to them all.

"Regarding this season, I think we will get stronger as it goes on and our team gels, not unlike the double Wembley season. I do not expect to live to see the ultimate outcome, but I travel in hope.

"I wish you all a good football season and thank you for your kindness down the years."

It sounds like you have never heard of a typo before...

[Joey Russ 7,119]

Well, Falkholt is now dead. Do we already potentially know the DDP winner already? I mean, I don’t expect to beat him with the few differentials on my team...

EDIT: Or it seems like she’s still alive. But she will be dead before too long...