The Rolling Probabilistic Ddp Scoreboard

[Sir Creep 7,012]

Well Cancel My Appointments took into consideration (for the first time) what a person might score, and has only  4 players under 9 points (was hoping against hopes whoever had the Galyon Bros as uniques last year would not play this year).  Over half my team are 10+ point plays.  
Sometimes you have an epiphany and you are forced to put a celeb on your team the God's have given you, even if scoring dictates you shouldn't.  Some of you probably have such a celeb.  I have some dude who will only score 8 points and that's with his unique bonus....I knew this and used him anyway because I promised the DP Gods I would.  Early 2017 I'm watching 'Globe Trekker' and some guy bicycling through Seattle seeing the sights comes upon some place called GasWorks Park, where some landscape artist repurposed an old gas facility tanks and pipes into a family park/walk & recreation place.  His name was Richard Haag and he was like 95, living, and I said to the DP Gods thank you and I will use him no matter what.  And so I have appeased the Gods, who will not let me down with either his death (he seems healthy) or his obit (unlikely).

So please understand the few names I used who were less than double-digit points.  I am quite happy being totally under the bottom of the radar on this thread and elsewhere.  Like any game, it isn't determined on paper (or a spreadsheet).  Disappointed that (Joker) Falkholt was in the 40-50 range (not D40), that will hurt, but otherwise let's see it play out.
SC

[Grim Up North 3,565]

1 hour ago, msc said:

 

 

Well, I can at least guarantee one of 27 Deathlist forum members will win the Deathlist Cup!

As I know to my cost it is actually one of 28!

[gcreptile 10,223]

An update, now with Paul Alcock and Sara Chivers (and Francisco Nunez Oliveira), and some new team scores, but I think only one of them, Ethnic Cleansing, makes the Top 20. Lots of teams in the 140-point range...

20 hits no problem has 128,54pts. But the intent of the team is number of hits, not score, anyway

 

1. Dead Ends (177,265)

2. Bucket of Blood (174,995) - Paul Alcock!

3. Deceased Hose (170,44)

4. Dead Wait (169,795)

5. The Love Boat (168,725) - Sara Chivers!

6. Day in the Death (167,575)

7. Drollercoaster (166,0525)

8. Still Life (165,845)

9. Wormer, he's a dead man!... (165,1725)

10. Ethnic Cleansing (163,51)

11. To Kill a Gabor Sister (163,3625)

12. Poochie Died on the Way back to his home planet (160,9425) - Paul Alcock!

13. Shaun of the Dead 69 (159,803)

14. GUN - Ami Brown (159,2925)

15. GUN - Gabriele Grunewald (158,1525)

16. The Living End (157,005)

17. People Who I think might die in 2018 United (156,293)

18. Thomas Jefferson Survives (155,845)

19. Heading Nowhere (155,5225) - Paul Alcock!

20. DDP Tofoa (153,23)

 

I hope I have all the unique/non-unique scores now adjusted correctly.

I wonder if any other teams need to be scored. Which one also has the potential to enter the Top 20? I scored 47 teams so far. I hope to avoid scoring any more, but will do so when a previously unscored team stays in the "official" Top Ten for a while. 

 

[gcreptile 10,223]

And now:

Some other ranking: The probability score divided by the full potential score becomes: The safety index.

For example, the Love Boat's current probabilistic score is 168,725. The full point potential is 230 (assuming unnatural death for Marieke Vervoort, but for noone else)

168,725/230=0,7336 = 73,36%

The higher the index the more "safe" is a team.

 

1. Bucket of Blood 79,54%

2. 20 Hits no Problem 77,90%

3. Drollercoaster 77,23%

4. To Kill a Gabor Sister 75,28%

5. DDP Tofoa 74,75%

6. Ethnic Cleansing 74,66%

7. Still Life 73,71%

8. The Love Boat 73,36%

9. Dead Ends 73,25%

10. The Living End 73,03%

 

Bucket of Blood leads, because he/she "went safe". The two old, but also very likely to die,Charlotte Rae and Dilip Kumar show that for this team, the number of hits was more important than the potential points of younger, riskier picks.

20 Hits no Problem is also ranking appropriately high. Many people with a high chance to die, but very low potential points.

The "riskiest" team out of those I calculated scores for is The Whipping Posts at 44,26% followed closely by Still More Life. But then, the point of the B-Teams was to pick interesting people and to score some points on the side, so to say.

[gcreptile 10,223]

On 10.1.2018 at 20:22, gcreptile said:

Out of about 1300 living people on my longlist, only 11 currently have the 100% (for 2018):

John McCain, Lindy Remigino, Ron Villemaire (Star Wars fan), Kevin McAllister (DWTS something of a something), Nicki Flood (cancer mum), Spanky Manikan (who doesn't know him?), Vanessa Goodwin, Bobby Zarin, Morrie Boogaart (hat-knitting guy), Bill Crider and Franco Zeffirelli.

Bill Crider and Morrie Boogaart now:

http://mobileobits.mlive.com/obituaries/grandrapids/obituary.aspx?n=morris-boogaart&pid=188131283&referrer=0&preview=false

[gcreptile 10,223]

Small update for Liam Miller, Morgan Tsvangirai and some minor hits (WPC Davies), also José José now down to 7 base points. Bill Crider down to 5% obitability.

 

1. Dead Ends (177,265) ---

2. Bucket of Blood (176,455) ---

3. Day in the Death (171,925) +3

4. Deceased Hose (171,9) -1

5. Dead Wait (171,255) -1

6. The Love Boat (170,675) -1

7. Still Life (170,195) +1

8. Wormer, he's a dead man!... (169,0725) +1

9. Drollercoaster (167,5125)  -2

10. Ethnic Cleansing (165,46) ---

11. To Kill a Gabor Sister (164,8225) ---

12. Shaun of the Dead 69 (164,153) +1

13. Poochie Died on the Way Back to his Home Planet (162,4025) -1

14. Thomas Jefferson Survives (160,195) +4

15. GUN (Ami Brown) (160,2425) -1

16. GUN (Gabriele Grunewald) (160,1025) -1

17. The Living End (158,955) -1

18. People who I think might die in 2019 United (158,243) -1

19. DDP Tofoa (157,09) +1

20. The Blight House (157,4425) new

(21. Pan Breed (156,43))

 

I calculated scores for the Blight House and it enters the Top 20. I didn't calculate scores for A Good Innings yet, but I'll do it if one of their more unusual picks score.

If I had to guess, Emma Hannigan and José José will be the next hits. This will put Bucket of Blood at the top (above The Love Boat). Dead Ends is a slower team and will drop a little in the next months unless one of the possible second-half-of-the-year hits suddenly dies.

[Spade_Cooley 9,021]

Three points as a drop 40 bonus is too much, huh?

[gcreptile 10,223]

3 minutes ago, Spade_Cooley said:

Three points as a drop 40 bonus is too much, huh?

I agree. I think a unique bonus should still count more than a Drop 40 bonus, maybe 2-3, or even better 2-4?

[Spade_Cooley 9,021]

If anyone would care to be a darling and run some projections (past-jections?) of how previous years' DDPs would have looked with a 1/3, 2/3 and 2/4 allocation of Drop 40 to Unique Pick bonuses....

[gcreptile 10,223]

I can do it next weekend, unless anyone else wants to do it first?

[gcreptile 10,223]

Test:

Here's a table for 2017:

 

			Uniques	Drop 40	Final Score	Base Score	Score 4/2	Score 3/2	Score 3/1	Score 3/0
2017	1	Golden Slumbers	0	7	168	147	161	161	154	147
	2	Still Life	0	8	164	140	156	156	148	140
	3	Thomas Jefferson Survives	1	7	162	138	156	155	148	141
	4	DQSP	0	5	160	145	155	155	150	145
	5	Bucket of Blood	0	8	146	122	138	138	130	122
	6	Droller Coaster	0	9	138	111	129	129	120	111
	7	The B-Team	3	4	136	115	135	132	128	124
	8	Crossing The Styx	0	9	134	107	125	125	116	107
	9	Heading Nowhere	0	6	131	113	125	125	119	113
	10	Guild of Master Reapers	0	9	129	102	120	120	111	102
	11	Day in the Death	0	9	125	98	116	116	107	98
	12	Dead Ends	0	6	125	107	119	119	113	107
	13	Deceased Hose	0	8	125	101	117	117	109	101
	14	To Kill a Gabor Sister	1	5	125	107	121	120	115	110
	15	The Love Boat	0	4	124	112	120	120	116	112
	16	Drunkasaskunk	1	5	119	101	115	114	109	104
	17	I will not die, it's the world…	0	6	118	100	112	112	106	100
	18	Shaun of the Dead 69	0	4	118	106	114	114	110	106
	19	Poochie Died on the Way…	0	7	117	96	110	110	103	96
	20	I'm sorry for your trouble!	0	9	114	87	105	105	96	87

 

 

I hope it's understandable.

Final Score: The actual result

Base Score: Score without unique and Drop 40 bonusses

Score 4/2: Uniques 4-point-bonus, Drop 40 2-point-bonus

Score 3/2, Score 3/1 likewise

Score 3/0: the old scoring system, before the Drop 40 bonus.

 

Luckily, Golden Slumbers wins in all scenarios. Under 4/2 TJS is shared 2nd. The old scoring system would have had DQSP at 2nd place.

My B-Team would sometimes have gained a slot and The Love Boat sometimes makes the Top Ten :). Indeed, under the old scoring system I would have had places 5 and 8. Apparently, I was slow to adjust...

[msc 17,760]

Here is 2016 then:

 

2016 drop 40 scorers – zsa zsa, crowe, ali, castro, feek, nancy Reagan, granger, rama, marks, ford, angelil, aherne, havlange

 

Table 1/3

1.       DQSP – 160

2.       Chorizo – 156

3.       DDT -  153

4.       TJS 150

5.       Pan Breed – 146

 

 

Table 2/3

1.       Dqsp – 165

2.       Chorizo – 162

3.       DDT – 158

4.       TJS – 155

5.       Pan Breed 153

 

 

Table 2/4

1.       DQSP – 165

2.       Chorizo – 163

3.       DDT – 159

4.       TJS – 156

5.       Pan Breed 153

 

 

No change whatsoever in the top 5 at all.

[Spade_Cooley 9,021]

Maybe it's not having as big an impact as it looks? Hmm, back to the drawing board...

[msc 17,760]

I think 2015 would have seen DDT crowned champion on a 4 point unique bonus, on the 99 points a piece for you both and the average age second tiebreaker coming into force, but that's within margin of error on a quick calculation too. (58.4 to 60.5). 

 

No change in 2014.

 

Checking 2013....

 

 

[msc 17,760]

2013

Drop 40 – Mandela, thatcher, Chavez, biggs, winner, Bernie Nolan, cecil, wing, bonnie franklin, kimura, cliburn

1.       DQSP – 115

2.       Styx - 109

3.       OoO – 107

4.       TJS – 106

5.       DDT - 103

2/3

1.       DQSP – 119

2.       Styx – 117

3.       TJS - 113

4.       ooO -  112

5.       DDT -108

2 and 4

1.       DQSP – 121

2.       Styx – 117

3.       TJS - 114

4.       OoO – 112

5.       DDT - 109

[Joey Russ 7,119]

@gcreptile is there a reason why the 3/2 and 3/1 scores are the same?

[gcreptile 10,223]

I think it makes more difference below the Top Ten.

 

It looks as if in the last two years, the "top top" teams had a bit of margin over the rest, like the ten points between Golden Slumbers and The Love Boat in 2016, or the 14 points between DQSP and Bucket of Blood in 2017.

 

2015 was a close and unusually low-scoring affair, but still 13 points between TJS and Star Dust.

2014 had 29 pts (!) between Drunkasaskunk and The Misers...

2013 was close, except for the 1st place... similarly 2012.

 

[msc 17,760]

Such stats need a comedy pay off...

 

2011

Drop 40 – kim jong il, taylor, hitchens, seve, betty ford, peter falk (has Alzheimer’s)

 

 

1.       DDT – 110

2.       Nearest challenge – 83

 

2/3

 

1.       DDT – 111

2.       Nearest challenge – 85

 

 

2/4

1.       DDT – 114

2.       Nearest challenger - 87

 

By removing the 13th bonus and replacing it with the suggested Drop 40 bonuses, we can see how the new system could reduce DDT's 2011 winning margin down to a mere 27 points. 

[gcreptile 10,223]

2 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

@gcreptile is there a reason why the 3/2 and 3/1 scores are the same?

Excel mistake :). Corrected, but the result is unremarkable.

[msc 17,760]

Really, Spade nailed it a year ago, when he said (and I paraphrase here): the Drop 40 bonus isn't going to change the top of the table, it'll just be an added bonus for your casual player.

 

As they'd change 1 (arguably) from 7 DDP winners, I'd agree. In fact, I'd say the same of all the bonuses. They're just a nice extra to have, but they're not going to change anything that matters, really.

 

Now all this waffling on about unique bonuses, it is coming from your average DDPer, or the folk on here who try to play to win things? Because it looks so far like it's coming from the latter, and thus can be safely ignored?

 

(Apart from bringing back the local BBC obits of course, but that's a different thing entirely...)

[Sir Creep 7,012]

I'm probably the most vocal about it, and I'm playing to win.  So I guess just ignore my point of view.  Re-stating what Spade said doesn't make either you or Spade correct.  The fact is I and everyone trying to win has loaded up far more with D40 pix this year (and I guess last but I was slow to arrive at this).  As I said earlier the best way to go is just pick all D40, which takes the research out of the equation, and whoever pix the best D40 crew wins.  If that is the policy of the DDP that is fine.  But to couch it as 'just an added bonus' is absurd.  It changes the entire game and detracts from research.  I'm mathematically correct, period.  
SC

[Toast 14,837]

Except that the D40, while to some degree predictable, is not known in advance.

[Joey Russ 7,119]

53 minutes ago, Toast said:

Except that the D40, while to some degree predictable, is not known in advance.

Yeah, I had no idea that Nevin or Ricketts even had a shot of making the drop 40 because so few of the contenders went for them, for example...

[gcreptile 10,223]

Update... Catherine Nevin, Billy Graham, Vanessa Goodwin, plus: Cynthia Heimel and Vanessa LaFaye at 100% chance of mortality, but obitability still unchanged from what I had it originally (75% and 80%). I still expect them to obit, and I am annoyed that it hasn't happened yet. Yet, I don't want to reduce them to List-of-the-Lost-ers either (5% obitablity). 

 

1. Dead Ends (181,335)

2. Bucket of Blood (179,455)

3. Deceased Hose (178,97)

4. Dead Wait (175,325)

5. Day in the Death (174,925)

6. Still Life (173,195)

7. Wormer! He's a dead man! ... (173,1425)

8. Ethnic Cleansing (171,69)

9. The Love Boat (170,675)

10. To Kill a Gabor Sister (167,8225)

11. Drollercoaster (167,5125) 

12. Shaun of the Dead 69 (164,153)

13. Thomas Jefferson Survives (163,945)

14. Pan Breed (163,5)

15. GUN Ami Brown (163,2425)

16. GUN Gabriele Grunewald (163,1025)

17. Pooche Died on the Way Back to his Home Planet (162,4025)

18. The Living End (161,955)

19. The Blight House (159,6025)  

20. People who I think might die in 2018 United (158,243)

21. Heading Nowehere (158,0325)

 

A Toothill obit would now put Still Life at the top....

If LaFaye and Heimel don't obit, it will have quite drastic consequences for those teams, a substraction of about 7 pts for TJS, Ethnic Cleansing, The Blight House...

[gcreptile 10,223]

Oh what to do about all those non-obits? I have... reduced Vanessa LaFaye's obitability to 5%. I think the chance of an indirect obit are basically non-existent. For some reason The Times didn't follow up on their coverage. I have reduced Cynthia Heimel's obitability to 30%. The non-obit took me by surprise, and I don't want to rule out the possibility that some other feminist mentiones her in the Guardian, at some point this year. I have reduced Shalom Ouanounou's obitability to 50% (from 60%) (However, Ouanounou's mortality increased from 80%, or something like that, to 100%). The case still goes on, possibly up to the Canadian Supreme Court, and there is the possibility of an indrect obit via Taquisha McKitty.

Regular hits since the last update were Emma Hannigan, Stephen Hawking (for Alternatively in the News) and Alva Campbell (for DI's B-Team). Apart from that, the other hits were not members of teams I had scored.

 

1. Dead Ends (181,335) ---

2. Bucket of Blood (179,455) ---

3. Deceased Hose (178,97) ---

4. The Love Boat (178,125) +5

5. Dead Wait (175,325) -1

6. Day in the Death (174,925) -1

7. Still Life (173,195) -1

8. Wormer, he's a dead man!... (173,1425) -1

9. To Kill a Gabor Sister (167,8225) +1

10. Drollercoaster (167,5125) +1

11. Ethnic Cleansing (164,94) -3

12. Shaun of the Dead 69 (164,153) ---

13. Pan Breed (163,5) +1

14. GUN Ami Brown (163,2425) +1

15. GUN Gabriele Grunewald (163,1025) +1

16. Poochie Died on the way back to his home planet (162,4025) +1

17. The Living End (161,955) +1

18. Thomas Jefferson Survives (159,445) -5

19. People who I tihnk might die in 2018 United (158,243) +1

20. Heading Nowhere (158,0325) +1

21. DDP Tofoa (157,09) re-entry

 

Edit: I forgot, I also reduced the obitability of Kevin Carr down to 5%, finally.