The Rolling Probabilistic Ddp Scoreboard

[gcreptile 10,221]

At the time of her death, I had her obitability already under 50%. So the boost is massive, with her being a unique hit. He's at 2nd place right now with 169,73pts.

[gcreptile 10,221]

Update after a fairly quiet month for Sara Hankins, Bruce Langhorne and Emma Morano, plus a couple of changes for Shameless-y picks that have hardly any effect on the scores (except for Ben Suisala). I changed the chance of Langhorne dying from 70% to 100% and reduced his obitability from 80% to 70%, though personally, I believe he'll get the obit.

 

1. Golden Slumbers (171,13)

2. To Kill a Gabor Sister (169,73)

3. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (168,74)

4. Thomas Jefferson Survives (160,93)

5. Poochie died on the way back to his home planet (157,85)

6. The Love Boat (157,28)

7. Still Life (156,77)

8. Deceased Hose (153,73)

9. Dead Ends (153,0275)

10. The Living End (151,79)

11. New Years and Drinks All Night (151,76)

12. drollercoaster (151,54)

13. Heading Nowhere (151,22)

14. Day in the Death (150,01)

15. This Mortal Coil (146,262)

16. I will not die, it's the world that will end! (146,23)

17. Buckets of Blood (145,90)

18. Pan Breed (145,19)

19. I'm Sorry for your Trouble (144,87)

20. Drunkasaskunk (144,61)

 

I have to calculate the result for Bucket of Blood, looks pretty good, to be honest. I didn't have this team on my radar.

Edit: Buckets Of Blood is at 145,90pts.

Edit2: I just noticed an embarassing mistake in my Excel table regarding the score of Deceased Hose, it is two points higher than I previously thought.

 

@ msc: Among the changes of the Shameless-y picks was the reduction of Suisala's obitability to 30%. This is as low as I will go before his death. On the other hand, I might as well do a Top 20.

[msc 17,755]

I like not even being on the list anymore. We Scots always do our best work when being complete underdogs...

[Joey Russ 7,119]

How's Drunkasaskunk doing in the rankings? They seem to have somewhat of a strong team. 

[gcreptile 10,221]

26 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

How's Drunkasaskunk doing in the rankings? They seem to have somewhat of a strong team. 

I just added him to my list. 144,61pts.

[CaptainChorizo 1,903]

Seems like my teams fate rest on nabbing 3/4 hits of unpopular Beyer,Frates,MacGregor and Houlston and then enough of the mostly consensous but not full consensous choices like Brackell,King Michael,Ricketts,Robbie Rotten going as well.

[RadGuy 1,605]

Ah, 2nd place and ahead of Spade according to this calculation.

 

I think my team's fate rests more on other teams doing poorly than my team doing well.

 

I'm going to need Elias or Meads to survive, and both Perez and Singh to not obit, to have a chance at the title.

 

But if you ask me, Golden Slumbers is unsurpassable. He has up 17-19 likely hits and 180 likely points, if you ask me. But you never know...

[Joey Russ 7,119]

I really feel like this year is going to be another underdog story like Spade's victory in 2013. There are a couple of teams in my mind that could potentially be the underdog though, so if it happens, I'd need to figure out which team it is...

[gcreptile 10,221]

Small update for the Bruce Langhorne obit, Michael Perham and a lot of invisible action for Shameless (currently at 124,24 expected points. If Sally Major had obited, it would be at 136,59pts and Shameless might eventually knock on the Top 20...but now Major's obitability is down to 5%)

 

Important update for the change at the top, Michael Perham's death gives a small boost to DQSP, just enough to get to the top. I had his chance of dying at 85% and his obitability at 75% - that had to be a quick guess as I had been unaware of him before I began my calculations.

 

1. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (171,64) (+2)

2. Golden Slumbers (171,13) (-1)

3. To Kill A Gabor Sister (169,73) (-1)

4. Thomas Jefferson Survives (160,93) (---)

5. Poochie Died on the Way Back to his Home Planet (159,95) (---)

6. The Love Boat (157,28) (---)

7. Still Life (156,77) (---)

8. Deceased Hose (153,73) (---)

9. Dead Ends (152,0275) (---)

10. The Living End (151,79) (---)

11. New Years and Drinks All Night (151,76) (---)

12. drollercoaster (151,54) (---)

13. Heading Nowhere (151,22) (---)

14. Day in the Death (150,01) (---)

15. Drunkasaskunk (146,71) (+5)

16. This Mortal Coil (146,262) (-1)

17. I will not die, it's the world that will end! (146,23) (-1)

18. Buckets of Blood (145,90) (-1)

19. Pan Breed (145,19) (-1)

20. I'm sorry for your trouble (144,87) (-1)

 

Some What If's: Paul Van Zandvliet's death will give a boost of a bit more than 5 pts as I was unsure about his fate, and his obitability - but his coverage on the BBC pages makes an obit look extremely likely now. So his death will give Golden Slumbers quite a jump. An even bigger What If: If Julia Perez dies (she will) and obits (will she?) it's a bonus of 7 pts. I admit, I wasn't sure if she was really sick or if it was a publicity stunt. Still, she is in my reserve team as I hoped for a high risk/high reward unique hit. As DI has both Zandvliet and Perez, his team has a lot of upward potential, but it will not be enough to catch Golden Slumbers. He needs Charles Bradley dying to do that. 

As for my own team, Connie Johnson and Catherine Nevin should die very soon. Garn2 doesn't have Nevin and DI doesn't have Connie Johnson, so I'd be at 4th temporarily - unless Van Zandvliet dies before...

[msc 17,755]

It's funny re Nevin. Patience is often a virtue with deadpooling. I've got 4 folk on their last legs (could have a death announcement in the next 20 minutes, could hang on to summer by hook or crook), and 6 others who will almost certainly be gone by Christmas, but currently teams still feel in a bit of a phoney war lull.

 

No one has really talked about The Dead Cow, but if Kobayashi gets a QO that's another team up in contention for the top 5, imo.

[gcreptile 10,221]

On 19.4.2017 at 23:35, msc said:

It's funny re Nevin. Patience is often a virtue with deadpooling. I've got 4 folk on their last legs (could have a death announcement in the next 20 minutes, could hang on to summer by hook or crook), and 6 others who will almost certainly be gone by Christmas, but currently teams still feel in a bit of a phoney war lull.

 

No one has really talked about The Dead Cow, but if Kobayashi gets a QO that's another team up in contention for the top 5, imo.

I have him at 7th place, so it wouldn't surprise me. I already have Kobayashi at 5,6 expected points though, not that bad (after all, I picked her myself), but still a bonus of 4,4pts if she becomes a hit. And The Dead Cow would gain 8,8pts with Kobayashi as joker. So a jump to 4th place if everything else stays the same.

[gcreptile 10,221]

I am sorry, but it has to be done. Update for the non-obits of Ben Suisala and Sasha Lakovic. Also an invisible update for Sally Major and Kath Osmond. Shameless was at around 137pts but with the Suisala non-obit, it's now down to 133,77pts. It would probably be justified to lower that score even more because the obitability of cancer celebrities keeps declining with time, but I went down to 30% for all of them who don't blog and don't fundraise for others - and I'll leave it at that.

 

1. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (171,64) (---)

2. Golden Slumbers (171,13) (---)

3. To Kill a Gabor Sister (169,73) (---)

4. Thomas Jefferson Survives (160,93) (---)

5. Poochie Died on the Way back to his Home Planet (159,95) (---)

6. The Love Boat (157,28) (---)

7. Still Life (156,77) (---)

8. Deceased Hose (153,73) (---)

9. Dead Ends (153,0275) (apparently a typing error in the last update) (---)

10. The Living End (151,79) (---)

11. New Years and Drinks All Night (151,76) (---)

12. drollercoaster (151,54) (---)

13. Heading Nowhere (151,22) (---)

14. Drunkasaskunk (146,71) (+1)

15. I will not die, it's the world that will end! (146,23) (+2)

16. Buckets of Blood (145,90) (+2)

17. I'm sorry for your trouble (144,87) (+3)

18. Day in the Death (144,37) (-4)

19. This Mortal Coil (140,862) (-3)

20. Pan Breed (138,12) (-1)

 

I have to apologize to the person behind This Mortal Coil because I accidentally assigned the points of Steve Hewlett to his pick of Dilip Kumar. So I had calculated his score a little too high.

But otherwise, this was a fairly quiet period. I bet Shameless wouldn't have received as much attention lately if one of the big names had died.

It's likely, especially with these non-obits, that there are still hidden teams who could enter the Top 20, but whose score I have not yet calculated. I also have an eye on Dead as a Doornail, Cancel My Appointments, Cancerous Hatred, DDP Tofoa, Shaun of the Dead 69, Carkers Convention, Valar Morghulis and Tonight Matthew, I'm going to be a badly-drawn boy.

 

Edit: I've calculated the score of Crossing the Styx and the team is at 14th place. I'll include it with the next update.

[msc 17,755]

Once the big names start dropping, Shameless will fall out of the pecking order.

 

They did last year after the Feek/Ford/Crowe joker payouts.

 

Christie/Downie/Bracknell holding firm just now, but they've got a long summer ahead of them.

 

[Joey Russ 7,119]

Definitely won't win this time....

 

Don't think I'll even be in the top 20 in the end.

[msc 17,755]

Perhaps, but I can't help but wonder if you or Rad Chap aren't going to wipe the floor with the rest of us in a few years.

[Spade_Cooley 9,019]

To bring the darts metaphor back again, with Van Gerwen setting up 100+ averages as a standard and occasionally hitting 120+ in televised games... how much further can DDP players improve beyond the current top tier level? Are we ever going to see a team with 20 under-30s scoring? Or 20 under-50s all in the drop 40?

[msc 17,755]

Can't see the second one ever

 

First might happen but we've not had a 20/20 basic DDP team yet.

[RadGuy 1,605]

Never know...

 

as teams keep slowly improving year by year, and the number of celebrities growing...

 

we could definitely see those two scenarios, but not for a half century at least for the second one.

 

Wonder if the DDP'll last that long.

[gcreptile 10,221]

It's ridiculous that I have msc's team barely making the top 20 when it could have been a winner in every year except last year. These past 2 years have been a revolution in deadpooling. Only last year has, not just the number of hits, but the quality of hits begun to matter. A random nonagenarian might actually turn out to be a bad pick (Soares could turn out to be one if Bert doesn't win). And a team of random nonagenarians with 20 deaths is not enough anymore.

 

Still, it looks like even this year, getting 20 out of 20 will prove to be too hard - though I think that a couple of people might actually do it if they try to maximize the number of hits, not just the points. I think I might have been able to field a team with 19 hits this year, if I had disregarded the chance of a unique bonus with a couple of hits (Kobayashi, Hvorostovsky), or an unnatural death bonus (Spiridonov) and simply had chosen those that I thought were surely going to die (especially Meads, Skellern, Hewlett). I still would have picked Stefansson though and if I had to guess now, he'll survive the year.

[Joey Russ 7,119]

I think the quality of the teams will continue to increase. Just hope next year we don't have a person mentioned on the forum that wasn't even selected by anyone on here (I'm talking about John Derrick).

[msc 17,755]

58 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

I think the quality of the teams will continue to increase. Just hope next year we don't have a person mentioned on the forum that wasn't even selected by anyone on here (I'm talking about John Derrick).

 

That ones a right here, tbh!

[Joey Russ 7,119]

If the Ian Brady dying rumors are actually true (and with the BBC reporting it, I think it might be), how much will that boost my score?

[gcreptile 10,221]

I'm not at home right now, but it's a bit more than 3pts. I had his probabilty of dying in 2017 at 60%. Plus a small chance of an unnatural death. So he's at 6,xx points now.

[gcreptile 10,221]

Update for Ian Brady, John Noakes, an invisible score change to Sonny West (can't give him the full points without the obit yet, but mortality chance is at 100% now), Irfon WIlliams, invisible points for Ray Pfeifer (The B-Team is at 129,805pts at the moment) and Gregg Allmann, though I'm currently not sure if anyone in the virtual Top 20 picked him. Edit: Ok, The Pelican picked him, as usual an extraordinary team. But probably not scoring well enough...yet.

 

1. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (171,64) (---)

2. Golden Slumbers (171,13) (---)

3. To Kill a Gabor Sister (169,73) (---)

4. Thomas Jefferson Survives (160,93) (---)

5. Poochie Died on the Way back to his Home Planet (159,95) (---)

6. Deceased Hose (157,55) (+2)

7. The Love Boat (157,28) (-1)

8. Still Life (156,77) (-1)

9. Dead Ends (153,0275) (---)

10. The Living End (151,79) (---)

11. New Years and Drinks All Night (151,76) (---)

12. drollercoaster (151,54) (---)

13. Heading Nowhere (151,22) (---)

14. Day in the Death (148,19) (+4)

15. Crossing the Styx (147,06) (new)

16. Drunkasaskunk (146,71) (-2)

17. I will not die, it's the world that will end! (146,23) (-2)

18. Buckets of Blood (145,90) (-2)

19. I'm sorry for your trouble (144,87) (-2)

20. Shameless (141,53) (new)

 

Only two teams out of those I watch picked Ian Brady, Deceased Hose and Day in the Death. Considering he was in the Drop 40, that's not much. My main team loses a place but I am somewhat compensated with having a second team in the Top 20 now, and I'll be honest. I only posted this update because Shameless made it in. I suspect that the next update with Van Zandvliet and possibly Smith Hart (and Nevin????) will end this state. However, each hit for Shameless gives it a huge boost, because I didn't rate the obit chances very highly, so if Aundrea Bannatyne or Gemma Nuttall obit (not to mention Emma Houlston, and what about Heidi Loughlin?), Shameless' score jumps quite a bit.

Going Underground is at 124,8 pts, by the way. And I rated Sonny West's chances of a QO rather highly. Would be a shame if he doesn't obit, I really liked the pick. On the other hand, picks like Mugabe, Brian Reader, Big Van Vader, Jessi Zazu and Paul Madeley don't rate highly in my list. That's why the score is still so low (plus the Paul McGill non-obit). So IF one of them dies, the score jumps quite a bit.

[gcreptile 10,221]

Update in which everyone (except reserve and theme teams, and Drunkasaskunk) gets a small bonus for Errol Christie, and some even get two small bonusses for having Christie as their joker, TJS, Buckets of Blood and Crossing the Styx. TJS also gets the Perez bonus leading to interesting results. I had Perez' obitability only at 50%, fair bet I think. But I underestimated her mortality because I wasn't sure if her illness was a publicity stunt, nevertheless my B-Team went for it (score currently 136,805). Still, her expected score was only 3.00, leading to a 7pt bonus for the two teams that picked her. Sonny West's obitability is now down to 5%, sorry. Toast gets belated bonus points for Geoffrey Bayldon. One of the teams I watch also had John Noakes, and one had Peter Sallis, I think. 

 

1. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (175,24) (---)

2. Thomas Jefferson Survives (175,13) (+2)

3. Golden Slumbers (174,73) (-1)

4. To Kill a Gabor Sister (173,33) (-1)

5. Poochie died on the way back to his home planet (163,55) (---)

6. Deceased Hose (161,15) (---)

7. The Love Boat (160,88) (---)

8. Still Life (160,37) (---)

9. drollercoaster (159,14) (+3)

10. Dead Ends (156,6275) (-1)

11. The Living End (155,39) (-1)

12. New Years and Drinks all Night (155,36) (-1)

13. Heading Nowhere (154,82) (---)

14. Crossing the Styx (154,26) (+1)

15. Buckets of Blood (153,10) (+3)

16. Day in the Death (151,79) (-2)

17. I'm sorry for your trouble (149,97) (+2)

18. I will not die, it's the world that will end! (149,83) (-1)

19. Drunkasaskunk (146,71) (-3)

20. This Mortal Coil (144,462) (Re-Entry)

 

Julia Perez could be the gamble of the year, now that TJS has expanded the trio at the top to a quartet.

 

Notice: We might now see an avalanche of relevant deaths, but if not, the next update will not occur before July and will thus be some kind of "half-time" update. I'm thinking about reducing the mortality chance of all people WITHOUT  fast-advancing terminal illnesses by 50%. If you picked random old person XYZ without cancer, without late-stage alzheimer's, without late-stage ALS, and without Werdnig-Hoffman syndrome, your pick will see a reduction in probabilistic score because they are in the process of running out the clock.

The reduction will not impact the terminal illness picks, because half a year is a sufficient time for their illnesses to advance. For example, Stefan Karl Stefansson currently has a 50% chance of dying in 2017. This will not be reduced after half the year because it could be expected that he dies later in the year anyway, and the time that has passed does not diminish the chance of him eventually becoming a hit this year.

But picks like Joseph Ratzinger, or Kenny Sansom, or Yisrael Kristal, they will see their expected score cut in half (in many, but not all cases).

I'm thinking of taking this step to get the expected score more in line with the actual scoreboard as the year comes closer to the end. This half-time reduction will not lead to a lot of changes in the Top 20 because those teams mostly went for the unaffected terminal illness-folks. There are basically two main exceptions to this, for one, those we expect to die unnaturally, or as a consequence of an unnatural event (Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Anna Holmlund, Kenny Sansom). And secondly, the frail old people whose continued survival might mean that they recovered from their fall/heart attack/stroke/pneunomia/whatever (Bruce Forsyth, Mireille Darc, Joseph Ratzinger,....).

But there might be another more drastic reduction at the end of the third quarter, in which everyone but late-stage cancer people gets this reduction.