The Rolling Probabilistic Ddp Scoreboard

[gcreptile 10,211]

Ugh, I just noticed an extremely dumb mistake. During the last update I checked how the scores would change if I assumed that person XYZ had died. But apparently, I forgot to reverse the score of one particular person back to the expected score. That person that is now basically dead and with qualifying obit in my database, although he isn't dead yet, is Paul Van Zandvliet. So the scores above are as they would be if Van Zandvliet died now, but everything else stayed the same. Apologies... 

 

And I must have checked the score change pretty late because I didn't notice that one of the first teams in my excel file, Pan Preed, would re-enter the Top 20 with Van Zandvliet's death. With Van Zandvliet dead Pan Breed would be at 20th place, not This Mortal Coil...

 

Well, reality might be at that point soon....

 

I also forgot that Van Zandvliet had turned 50, but at least the database knew...

 

 

[msc 17,712]

Ah, Pan Breed will be in your top 20 again to stay before long. White Van Zan, Rayya E is 18 points before too long, and the Joker is still sitting there.

[gcreptile 10,211]

Rayya Elias is at 5,04pts, out of 9 possible, in my database, so you'd "only" gain 4 pts with her. Gord Downie is at 9,72pts (out of 12 possible) so once he's dead everyone gains "only" 2,28pts, though as your joker, he counts twice, so you gain 2,28pts against everyone else. Then you'd be at 16th place.

 

The big score pushes come from successful punts. al-Baghdadi and Colin Butts would each give you a bonus of roughly 6pts in here.

 

And if they all die right now, Van Zandvliet, Downie, Elias, al-Baghdadi and Butts, you'd be around place 6-7 (The Living End would gain more with joker al-Baghdadi, maybe someone else, too). So yes, top 10 is still very much possible. You just need everything to go your way from now on.

[gcreptile 10,211]

Update:

I had to clean up the Van Zandvliet-mess I made the last time. Because at some point during the last update, I wanted to check what would happen if Van Zandvliet became a hit. But then I forgot to switch it back to normal (I was only a couple of days too quick.). As a consequence, some people already had the full score for Van Zandvliet, but some didn't. Those who didn't, include Pan Preed, Golden Slumbers and TJS. That's why the scoreboard at the top is now significantly changed. Pan Breed doesn't re-enter the Top20 in spite of me promising it the last time, because the boost for Helen Fawkes (for Dead as a Doornail) was bigger than the one for Van Zandvliet. I had considered Fawkes basically cured.

DDP Tofoa had a hit with Helmut Kohl and is now at 132,84pts. And there's Mao Kobayashi, who was The Dead Cow's joker and whose death has a similar effect to that of Julia Perez. Perez gained 7 Pts with her death in my calculation, Kobayashi "only" gained about 4 pts, but as a joker, they count twice, so The Dead Cow gets a boost of about 8pts. This joker bonus can only be beaten by the joker bonus for al-Baghdadi. He would gain about 6 pts with his unnatural death, so 12pts for those who have him as a joker.(Edit: Dead as A Doornail has Pete Frates as a joker. He'd actually gain about 13pts if he were to become a hit.)

 

1. Thomas Jefferson Survives (179,54) (+1)

2. Bert Trautmann (179,14) (+1)

3. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (175,24) (-2)

4. Still Life (173,58) (+4)

5. To Kill a Gabor Sister (173,33) (-1)

6. The Love Boat (165,28) (+1)

7. Poochie Died on the Way Back to His Home Planet (163,55) (-2)

8. Deceased Hose (161,15) (-2)

9. drollercoaster (159,14) (---)

10. Buckets of Blood (157,51) (+5)

11. Dead Ends (156,6275) (-1)

12. The Living End (155,39) (-1)

13. New Years and Drinks All Night (155,36) (-1)

14. Heading Nowhere (154,82) (-1)

15. Crossing The Styx (154,26) (-1)

16. Day in the Death (151,79) (---)

17. I'm sorry for your trouble (149,97) (---)

18. I will not die, it's the world that will end! (149,83) (---)

19. Dead as a Doornail (148,49) (new)

20. Drunkasaskunk (146,71) (-1)

 

So, a new leader! It was the trifecta of Errol Christie, Julia Perez and Paul Van Zandvliet. However, my feeling of TJS being the most likely winner had been there for some time (which shows that this statistical exercise may not necessarily be an improvement). Stefan Karl's now very likely death will confirm it, because he's only at 5,85pts in my calculation (50:50 chance of dying and I wasn't 100% sure about his obitability at the beginning of the year. But now I know that there'll be no doubt about it). Since Stefan Karl is worth 13 pts, TJS will gain more than 7pts on Golden Slumbers. Something he can only counter with Jerome Golmard (a pick that, in my opinion, came one or two years too early).

Dead as a Doornail is new in the Top 20 and the death of Pete Frates would push him into the Top 10. Shaun of the Dead is now waiting just outside the Top 20, but with the picks of Frates, Stefansson and Hart  he'll probably make it very soon.

 

Also, to repeat, the next update will see a half-of-the-year score reduction for all picks without terminal illnesses. I have decided NOT to reduce points for al-Baghdadi, as ISIS basically has a terminal illness now, and it's advancing quickly.... But some of the picks that will be affected by it are: Bruce Forsyth, Alberto Fujimori, Anna Holmlund, Vincent Lambert, a couple of my reserve team picks, even the Shameless pick Juan Pedro Franco, and a couple of others.

 

 

[msc 17,712]

Holmlund's recovering. Least likely to go on the entire Pan Breed shortlist. Serves me right for going ghoulish instead of safe with a Wetton or Hewlett.

[Joey Russ 7,118]

Well, that very likely to be dead update is important as well...

[Death Impends 7,361]

If the pancan trio all goes (Elias will, Karl probably too, Meads isn't doing too bad right now, but has still declined in recent months) then Spade and I will have created a buffer that'd be very difficult for Bert or Cow to penetrate. I'm ahead of Spade right now in the DDP scoreboard but think I'll need Booth and Michael to go for that to remain true at the year's end, we'll see.

[gcreptile 10,211]

Update after one month during which not much happened.

Smith Hart died, Jagraj Singh died and hasn't obited yet. I reduced his obitability to 5%, which decreased the score of DQSP by quite a bit. Sonny West's obitability increased from 5% to 100%. One of the rare cases where the obit appeared by chance. That's why I reduce obitability not to 0%, but to 5%. Such coincidences can always happen... Maybe some other Sikh authority gets killed and obits, and Jagraj Singh gets a mention, or something like that...

The biggest change was the previously announced reduction in score for not-terminally ill people (exception: al-Baghdadi - I don't know what to do with him. I actually think I should reduce his obitability, but didn't do it for now).

 

So this is what it looks like now:

 

1. Thomas Jefferson Survives (179,54) (---)

2. Still Life (177,345) (+2)

3. Golden Slumbers (176,44) (-1)

4. To Kill a Gabor Sister (173,33) (+1)

5. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (169,74) (-2)

6. The Love Boat (165,28) (---)

7. Poochie Died on the Way Back to his Home Planet (163,55) (---)

8. drollercoaster (162,905) (+1)

9. Deceased Hose (161,15) (-1)

10. Heading Nowhere (157,84) (+4)

11. The Living End (155,39) (+1)

12. Buckets of Blood (154,81) (-2)

13. Dead Ends (154,505) (-2)

14. New Years and Drinks All Night (153,11) (-1)

15. Day in the Death (151,79) (+1)

16. Crossing The Styx (151,46) (-1)

17. The B-Team (150,155) (new)

18. I will not die, it's the world that will end! (149,83) (---)

19. Dead as a Doornail (148,49) (---)

20. I'm sorry for your trouble (146,145) (-3)

 

Still Life overtakes Golden Slumbers because of the latter's pick of Bruce Forsyth, who was picked for general frailty and the fall, and who I actually thought would be dead by now. But he keeps hanging on. Heading Nowhere gains the most places, because he knows that, statistically, the terminally ill people are better picks than the age-based picks. He also has 3 picks whose deaths would gain him at least 5 points each, Georgina Beyer, Pete Frates, and Stefan Karl Stefansson. So there is still some potential to go higher, but with Frates' money woes temporarily over, it might not work out this time.

My B-Team is now also in the top 20, even though it had a couple of age based picks. But their score was already very low, so I couldn't reduce them much anymore. Still, I am not sure it makes the Top 20 in the end. It's running out of good picks. Nick Boles, Colin Butts, Steve Gleason and also Kevin Murray are doing too well to die this year, in my opinion. Kevin Murray was another prisoner to fool me. While he has ALS and is terminally ill, it's nowhere near as advanced as previously said.

Still, for now I don't reduce the scores of terminally ill people doing well, as they could always take a turn for the worse quite quickly and there is still enough of 2017 left. Bobby Zarin is a good example, he'll die very soon. And if I were to reduce the scores of those B-Team picks, I might as well reduce the scores of other picks who have an increasing chance of surviving the year, Greg Gilbert, Gord Downie, Simon Ricketts, King Michael, Colin Meads.... 

The next update will probably see the deaths of Connie Johnson, Stefan Karl and Bobby Zarin (not enough to put Shameless into the Top 20). And Leah Bracknell hasn't given us part two of her story yet... I predicted that her decline would be very quickly, once it sets in. I predicted an August/September death.

 

Edit: Just realized why my B-Team is now so high. It's because of Gary DeCarlo's death.

[Spade_Cooley 9,001]

Jagsy not out of it yet... I make it 75% he gets an obit myself. We'll see.

[Joey Russ 7,118]

3 minutes ago, Spade_Cooley said:

Jagsy not out of it yet... I make it 75% he gets an obit myself. We'll see.

Well, if a U.K. bishop who publicly supported gay rights and marriage doesn't get an obit, then I doubt a Sikh religious leader will...

[Spade_Cooley 9,001]

Nah, look at the blueticks in this Twitter thread. Plus he's already had a tribute played on BBC London, I'm expecting a Guardian "Lives...." piece at some point tbh.

[gcreptile 10,211]

Before I reduced the score, I had a couple of looks at Sunny Hundal's twitter feed. He took his time to react. If Singh obits after all, you get a bonus of (1-0,05)*10=9,5 pts.

[Joey Russ 7,118]

19 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

Well, if a U.K. bishop who publicly supported gay rights and marriage doesn't get an obit, then I doubt a Sikh religious leader will...

Well, the bishop got an obituary, so maybe he will as well.

[msc 17,712]

Bishops are cert obits. They just take a bit at times if they're not big name ones, and the Bishopric of Bradwell isn't one.

 

I'd be surprised if Singh missed out on an obit, but then again, Sunny's tribute on Facebook read like the article I'd have expected him to write for a QO...

[RadGuy 1,605]

On 7/28/2017 at 15:31, gcreptile said:

Kevin Murray was another prisoner to fool me. While he has ALS and is terminally ill, it's nowhere near as advanced as previously said.

Actually, he's dead.

 

Definitely the year of ALS.

[msc 17,712]

13 minutes ago, Phantom of the Midway said:

Actually, he's dead.

 

Definitely the year of ALS.

 

*Pete Frates dislikes this.

[gcreptile 10,211]

1 hour ago, Phantom of the Midway said:

Actually, he's dead.

 

Definitely the year of ALS.

Oh! But let's see if the obit comes up. If it does, I'm certain that my B-Team will finish in the Top 20.

[gcreptile 10,211]

Update: None of the people I previously envisioned to die, have died. Instead, there were Glen Campbell, Laurie Brokenshire, Jerome Golmard, Kevin Murray and an obit for Jagraj Singh.

The result of this is a change at the top, but basically a race between two teams with basically equal chance of winning.

 

1. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (182,74) (+4)

2. Golden Slumbers (182,44) (+1)

3. Still Life (180,945) (-1)

4. Thomas Jefferson Survives (179,54) (-3)

5. To Kill A Gabor Sister (173,33) (---)

6. The Love Boat (168,88) (---)

7. drollercoaster (166,505) (+1)

8. Deceased Hose (164,75) (+1)

9. Poochie Died on the Way back to his Home Planet (163,55) (-2)

10. Dead Ends (158,105) (+3)

11. Heading Nowhere (157,84) (-1)

12. The B-Team (155,42) (+5)

13. The Living End (155,39) (-2)

13. Day in the Death (155,39) (+2)

15. Crossing The Styx (155,06) (+1)

16. Buckets of Blood (154,81) (-4)

17. New Years and Drinks All Night (153,11) (-3)

18. I will not die, it's the World that will end! (149,83) (---)

19. I'm sorry for your trouble (149,745) (+1)

20. Dead as a Doornail (148,49) (-1)

 

Most of the changes are based on whether teams had, or not had, Glen Campbell. DQSP continues to have everything going for them, with the barest of obits, defying probabilities. Other big winner was the B-Team, which is doing ridiculously well and is now ahead of TJS in the virtual "official" scoreboard. Oh, if I had picked John Wetton instead of Nick Boles.... The B-Team is also the only team in the virtual Top 10 without hits from the Obituary vault.

[Joey Russ 7,118]

12 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

13. The Living End (155,39) (-2)

13. Day in the Death (155,39) (+2)

The exact same amount of points as The Living End? I feel honored. 

[Death Impends 7,361]

Would definitely hope to see B-Team finish above Shameless in the end. A good example of just how many quality picks one can find these days (which in turn illustrates how tough it's gotten to pare names down to a final 20).

[gcreptile 10,211]

Update for Colin Meads, Bruce Forsyth, Susanne Cameron-Blackie (obitability down to 5%), and other people without impact on the Top 20 (Jerry Lewis, Aundrea Bannatyne)

 

1. Golden Slumbers (188,74) (+1)

2. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (184,45) (-1)

3. Thomas Jefferson Survives (181,25) (+1)

4. Still Life (180,945) (-1)

5. To Kill a Gabor Sister (173,33) (---)

6. The Love Boat (168,88) (---)

7. drollercoaster (168,215) (---)

8. Poochie died on the way back to his home planet (165,26) (+1)

9. Deceased Hose (164,75) (-1)

10. Buckets of Blood (162,82) (+6)

11. Heading Nowhere (159,55) (---)

12. Dead Ends (158,105) (-2)

13. The B-Team (157,13) (-1)

14. Day in the Death (157,1) (-1)

15. Crossing The Styx (156,77) (---)

16. I'm sorry for your trouble (156,045) (+3)

17. The Living End (155,01) (-4)

18. New Years and Drinks All Night (154,82) (-1)

19. I will not die, it's the world that will end (151,54) (-1) 

20. Dead as a Doornail (148,49) (---)

 

Colin Meads gives just a small boost, because I already had him at 7,29pts before dying, and now he's worth the full 9 pts. Bruce Forsyth received a bigger boost, which is why Golden Slumbers is now ahead again. The numbers neatly express my opinion, that Golden Slumbers is the favourite to win now - because he just needs one out of two (King Michael, Patrick Cryne) whereas DQSP NEEDS Rayya Elias (Bracknell and Downie make no difference, and the others won't die in 2017 - in my opinion.). Buckets of Blood had both Meads and Campbell, so he's the big winner. The non-obit of Cameron-Blackie is, of course, bad news for DDT. But maybe a lucky obit still appears, though I find it hard to imagine where that would happen.

 

So far, this was a nice exercise, but I'm not sure if I will do the same again next year. I think I got too much wrong early in the year. I had my main team and msc doing too well, and Golden Slumbers and my B-Team doing too bad. Though in my defence, King Michael, Leah Bracknell and Gord Downie not being dead by now, has warped almost everyone's expectations (plus Catherine Nevin). I also overrated Greg Gilbert and Simon Ricketts. The numbers are only as good as my deadpooling skill. And I still had to learn quite a bit this year.

[drol 10,028]

I rely on Bracknell, Downie and Michael. After them the year will be over.

[gcreptile 10,211]

By the way, funny calculation, well, funny for me, at least. If the consensus is right and Bracknell and Downie still die this year, then those two, plus Connie Johnson and Rayya Elias (who everyone assumes to die this year), put my main team at 128pts, which is exactly one point ahead of The B-Team, so the hierarchy is restored!

[Joey Russ 7,118]

I like this exercise gcreptile. Despite being flawed at certain  points (I still remember at the very beginning of the year when I was all the way in 4th place), I still think it's a good thinking tool to use. 

[msc 17,712]

Yes, it has been very interesting, especially to see teams rise and fall as the year passes.

 

And certainly, you can learn things from this years DDP. If Pan Breed returns in 2018, I'll have certainly be rethinking any strategy I use.