The Rolling Probabilistic Ddp Scoreboard

[Toast 14,842]

18 minutes ago, Sir Creep said:

I thought we all were aiming at a 100% hit rate.

This discussion is in danger of becoming circular.

[Joey Russ 7,119]

Though I don't believe it has any chance of beating my main team, I am interested to see what it's base score is so I can see the expected difference between my main and B team...

[gcreptile 10,234]

Ok, I can post a first Top Ten, but this is all very preliminary.

Many good teams are probably still missing (Bucket of Blood, Crossing The Styx, etc....)

And the Drop 40 and unique hits aren't out yet.

Once they are all out and Spade has it all set up, I'll expand the Top Ten to a Top Twenty, but I first need to include these new teams. Hopefully, they don't have a lot of completely new names...

 

1. Still Life - 155,488

2. The Love Boat - 153,931

3. Thomas Jefferson Survives - 152,023

4. To Kill a Gabor Sister - 150,915

5. Day in the Death - 150,369

6. GUN away - 147,5025

7. GUN fishing - 146,6905 - hmm...

8. Drollercoaster - 146,5655

9. The Living End - 146,275

10. Poochie Died on the Way Back to his Home Planet - 145,5165

 

At this early stage, the scores are higher than they were at the same stage last year, by about 10 points.

 

[Joey Russ 7,119]

So I start in 5th place right now. Like last year, I’m interested to see how slowly I fall out of the top ten (ha ha)... 

Seriously though, there are really a lot of great teams this year, and it’s going to be especially tough and temseful  to see who will actually win (although if I see both of Grim’s team at top without Gabe Grunewald or Ami Brown dying, I will be slightly pissed cause that kicks out two teams from the top 3)...

[Grim Up North 3,565]

I don't really understand Joey's point but I must apologise for breaking etiquette I didn't really understand existed - in fact I asked if the two team could have the same people in before I entered my first team.

 

I now realise that by entering a second team that is almost exactly the same I have also unintentionally increased the chances of all my team getting DDP 40 points.

 

In actual fact I did not intend to enter two teams I just really regretted not putting Ami Brown in my team and realised on 31st Dec that I could simply enter another team and swap someone out for Ami Brown - so I did.  Based on GC Reptiles analysis it was the right decision to leave Gabe out for Ami so if the correct thing to do is withdraw GUN Fishing from the competition then I can do that I presume by sending a mail to Spade?

[YoungWillz 19,054]

2 minutes ago, Grim Up North said:

I don't really understand Joey's point but I must apologise for breaking etiquette I didn't really understand existed - in fact I asked if the two team could have the same people in before I entered my first team.

 

I now realise that by entering a second team that is almost exactly the same I have also unintentionally increased the chances of all my team getting DDP 40 points.

 

In actual fact I did not intend to enter two teams I just really regretted not putting Ami Brown in my team and realised on 31st Dec that I could simply enter another team and swap someone out for Ami Brown - so I did.  Based on GC Reptiles analysis it was the right decision to leave Gabe out for Ami so if the correct thing to do is withdraw GUN Fishing from the competition then I can do that I presume by sending a mail to Spade?

Don't bother.

 

Stick to your GUNs.

[Joey Russ 7,119]

In my opinion, I think withdrawing one of your teams is the right thing to do. I don’t mind competition at all; in fact, I really enjoy it. If other people’s teams are better than mine in the end, I don’t really care cause it shows me that I can improve. But if me or someone else loses out on a top 5 spot or a top ten spot because of two nearly identical teams from the same person takes two of those spots, then I will be mad, cause that would rob me or someone else of an opportunity to say they made it that far. That’s just my opinion, but I think others will agree with me on that...

[YoungWillz 19,054]

Absolutely no rule against it.

 

If someone places a team with same names, they do themselves out of possible uniques - see Cancerous Hatred.

 

*chuckles at the bomb no one saw coming in the Town Hall discussion*

[YoungWillz 19,054]

9 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

In my opinion, I think withdrawing one of your teams is the right thing to do. I don’t mind competition at all; in fact, I really enjoy it. If other people’s teams are better than mine in the end, I don’t really care cause it shows me that I can improve. But if me or someone else loses out on a top 5 spot or a top ten spot because of two nearly identical teams from the same person takes two of those spots, then I will be mad, cause that would rob me or someone else of an opportunity to say they made it that far. That’s just my opinion, but I think others will agree with me on that...

Hang on, are you saying someone should withdraw their team to give them less chance of winning and you and others more chance?

 

That's interesting...

[Joey Russ 7,119]

Ah, you remind me of Jiroemen. The difference between Grim and him is that there were multiple differences between both of Cancerous Hatred’s team (and as it turns out, his main team was better anyways). Grim, on the other hand, has 19 similar picks, which doesn’t really give him a lot of wiggle room and is very likely to get two spots either near each other or in equal places (especially since I believe one is a fraud and the other might not obit). 

[msc 17,762]

I'm not really that bothered, tbh? Last year had Cancerous Hatred's 1, 2 and Cancerous hatred the force awakens...

[msc 17,762]

11 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

 

*chuckles at the bomb no one saw coming in the Town Hall discussion*

 

What bomb was that?

[YoungWillz 19,054]

1 minute ago, msc said:

 

What bomb was that?

Did I say bomb?

 

Yes, I did.

[YoungWillz 19,054]

6 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

Ah, you remind me of Jiroemen. The difference between Grim and him is that there were multiple differences between both of Cancerous Hatred’s team (and as it turns out, his main team was better anyways). Grim, on the other hand, has 19 similar picks, which doesn’t really give him a lot of wiggle room and is very likely to get two spots either near each other or in equal places (especially since I believe one is a fraud and the other might not obit). 

Or GUN's teams might go down in flames, given the overlap.

 

I don't think anyone should bully anyone into removing their team for fear they might outdo you.

[Toast 14,842]

This sort of thing would be unlikely to happen if the rule reverted to one main team only, plus theme teams.  Just saying.

[gcreptile 10,234]

I once had the idea of a "safe" main team, and a "risky" main team, when I thought to myself that last year's B-Team could have won if I had replaced some of the fringier names with Leah Bracknell or Errol Christie.

 

There would have been an overlap between the two of about 10 names. But then it didn't feel right. Needless to say, neither team would have won anything because Leah Bracknell would have been the joker on all of them....

 

I also briefly considered submitting one safe team WITH Stefan Karl Stefansson and Greg Gilbert, and one without them, mostly the one you see now. But I decided against it as well...

 

Still, the rules are the rules (and the non-rules). I think there's no need to withdraw, even if Patrick Cryne's possible entry into the Drop 40 hurts my main team's chances.

[msc 17,762]

9 minutes ago, Toast said:

This sort of thing would be unlikely to happen if the rule reverted to one main team only, plus theme teams.  Just saying.

 

Or people in general could stop taking it all so seriously? It's just a bit of fun, after all.

 

Quite specifically not referring to Gcreptile's thread here, stats and stuff is a bit of fun imo.

[Grim Up North 3,565]

45 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

In my opinion, I think withdrawing one of your teams is the right thing to do. I don’t mind competition at all; in fact, I really enjoy it. If other people’s teams are better than mine in the end, I don’t really care cause it shows me that I can improve. But if me or someone else loses out on a top 5 spot or a top ten spot because of two nearly identical teams from the same person takes two of those spots, then I will be mad, cause that would rob me or someone else of an opportunity to say they made it that far. That’s just my opinion, but I think others will agree with me on that...

Hmmm seems no-one does.

 

When I disappear into mid table obscurity I will remember this conversation with fondness.

[msc 17,762]

1 minute ago, Grim Up North said:

Hmmm seems no-one does.

 

When I disappear into mid table obscurity I will remember this conversation with fondness.

 

If you finish 1st and 2nd (or near enough) in the DDP, I will personally shake your hand.

 

For shake hand, read "press the like button on one of your posts".

[Grim Up North 3,565]

36 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

(especially since I believe one is a fraud and the other might not obit). 

Time will tell (or maybe for her it won't hopefully in GG case).

 

But the photos of Ami look like a dying woman whatever the text that goes with them.

 

And in GG I am relying on the various Sports sites that generate QOs as she has a lot of support across the AMERICAN athletics fraternity for her struggle so good chance someone will pick it up.

[msc 17,762]

Actually, in the simulation I ran, Grim finished 2nd. This is the DDP simulation where I win, of course: not that fussed about other scenarios.

[Grim Up North 3,565]

1 minute ago, msc said:

Actually, in the simulation I ran, Grim finished 2nd. This is the DDP simulation where I win, of course: not that fussed about other scenarios.

2nd and 3rd? 

[msc 17,762]

1 minute ago, Grim Up North said:

2nd and 3rd? 

I didn't pay attention to the 2nd team, but I'd guess so!

[Grim Up North 3,565]

Oh you should - GC thinks that's the better one!

[Spade_Cooley 9,022]

There's two teams that were submitted this year that, I realise upon looking later, were identical except one had Helmut Kohl on it and the other didn't (replaced by Jimmy Carter maybe? Someone like that). Both from the same person. Normally I'd assume that he fucked up and sent the second team after realising his Helmut mistake, but the teams have different names and no part of the email contained a "my bad, woops" attachment. So there's two teams in with 19 identical names. He didn't bother including subs. Odd one.