Zsa Zsa's leg 884 Posted July 21, 2017 4 hours ago, msc said: Republicans will win around 6 seats next year, imo. It's a rotten set of seats to come up for the Democrats. The only GOP pickup I can see is maybe Missouri or Indiana, which democrats will cover with one of the arizona races and nevada. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LilyForrester 81 Posted July 21, 2017 3 hours ago, Zsa Zsa's leg said: The only GOP pickup I can see is maybe Missouri or Indiana, which democrats will cover with one of the arizona races and nevada. I think it's going to be much worse than that. I agree with you on Missouri and Indiana. West Virginia is toast, Manchin is hated by the left and faces a tough competitor. Plus it was Trump's second best result the whole election (over 40% more than Hillary), just behind Republican stronghold Wyoming. Florida is a good chance to flip, especially if Governor Scott runs against Bill Nelson. Ohio looks good, Trump won it by almost 10 points making it look bad for Dems. North Dakota is ruby red, Heitkamp is popular though so she might hang on. However, being bipartisan might cost her with progressive voters. Montana is a good location too. The tougher ones will be the Michigan and Wisconsin races, since Trump won there on a knife-edge. Kid Rock might run a good campaign like Trump and inspire grassroots voters if he plays his cards right. Senator Kid Rock is possible. I can see Dems winning Neveda but that's it. I doubt they flip Arizona. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
msc 18,437 Posted July 21, 2017 Right, let's vacate all the seats up for grabs next year, except McCains due to vagaries of health. This gives us 23 Democrats to 44 Republicans. Orrin Hatch, Ted Cruz, Bob Corker and John Barraso will all win easily. Arizona likely to stay Republican imo. Now Ohio and Indiana have been trending heavily Republican of late, so those 2 as a pickup wouldn't be a surprise. West Virginia is another rich Republican area. Montana and North Dakota are again in areas Republicans tend to do well in. Then you have the rust belt three - Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn. All three swung to Trump in November. Who knows if they've swung back already? After all, the economy has tanked yet, and those who voted for Trump seem happy with him so far. At this point in time, all 3 might easily be in play. This takes us to 58 Republicans, and still assumes that: - Nevada is a gain for the Democrat - Claire McCaskill continues to fight gravity in Missouri - That the primarying of Gillibrand and Bernie and others doesn't happen, or isn't successful, and that if it is, it doesn't split the base enough. The flipside of this is that the four (not by-elections) since Trump being President have shown a 9% swing on average to the Democrats. Now, they've all been in safe seats, and there's the old adage of swing being larger in swing seats. However, I dunno how much you can extend swing to US elections, and more pertinently, there's no proof of this pro-Democrat turn yet in any big vote. (chicken, egg, I know...) All in all, not a great election outlook if you're a Dem. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,220 Posted July 21, 2017 I wouldn't count on Ohio being flipped. Yes, Trump won the states by a lot, but keep in mind that Trump won the presidency not only with the republicans, but with people with the outsiders as well, so don't place your bets on senate gains just because Trump won in it. I'm not saying your wrong, I just personally wouldn't count on it... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zsa Zsa's leg 884 Posted July 21, 2017 Beto O'Rourke will defeat Cruz Jacky Rosen will defeat Dean Heller Mark Kelly will defeat Jeff Flake/John McCain I believe all democrats besides McCaskill (maybe) will hold their seats, they all have very high approval and are bipartisan (Manchin, Heitkamp, Tester, and Donnelly) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zsa Zsa's leg 884 Posted July 21, 2017 2 hours ago, LilyForrester said: I think it's going to be much worse than that. I agree with you on Missouri and Indiana. West Virginia is toast, Manchin is hated by the left and faces a tough competitor. Plus it was Trump's second best result the whole election (over 40% more than Hillary), just behind Republican stronghold Wyoming. Florida is a good chance to flip, especially if Governor Scott runs against Bill Nelson. Ohio looks good, Trump won it by almost 10 points making it look bad for Dems. North Dakota is ruby red, Heitkamp is popular though so she might hang on. However, being bipartisan might cost her with progressive voters. Montana is a good location too. The tougher ones will be the Michigan and Wisconsin races, since Trump won there on a knife-edge. Kid Rock might run a good campaign like Trump and inspire grassroots voters if he plays his cards right. Senator Kid Rock is possible. I can see Dems winning Neveda but that's it. I doubt they flip Arizona. Manchin is one of the most popular senators in the country, WV voters love how he defies the left and the right and votes his own way. Florida likes Bill Nelson, not really Rick Scott. Scott wouldn't risk his career against somebody far more popular than him. Ohio will only flip if John Kasich runs, which I don't think he will. Josh Mandel would be a weak challenger, as he proved in 2012. Kid Rock isn't challenging Stabenow, he said it was a promotion for his album. The only person who could come close to Debbie Stabenow is Justin Amash, who is quickly losing his credibility in the republican party. There are no strong republicans that can defeat Tammy Baldwin, who is well liked for a WI democrat. Sean Duffy and Scott Walker are not running, so Baldwin will win. Heidi Heitkamp's seat is a doozie, but there are no challengers who are as well known as Heitkamp herself, which makes defeating rural democrats tough even when they were dominated in the presidential race by republicans. Montana is certainly vulnerable but Jon Tester is well liked and is liked by establishment democrats, progressives, and even moderate republicans/independents. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,220 Posted July 21, 2017 31 minutes ago, Zsa Zsa's leg said: Beto O'Rourke will defeat Cruz Jacky Rosen will defeat Dean Heller Mark Kelly will defeat Jeff Flake/John McCain I believe all democrats besides McCaskill (maybe) will hold their seats, they all have very high approval and are bipartisan (Manchin, Heitkamp, Tester, and Donnelly) 24 minutes ago, Zsa Zsa's leg said: Manchin is one of the most popular senators in the country, WV voters love how he defies the left and the right and votes his own way. Florida likes Bill Nelson, not really Rick Scott. Scott wouldn't risk his career against somebody far more popular than him. Ohio will only flip if John Kasich runs, which I don't think he will. Josh Mandel would be a weak challenger, as he proved in 2012. Kid Rock isn't challenging Stabenow, he said it was a promotion for his album. The only person who could come close to Debbie Stabenow is Justin Amash, who is quickly losing his credibility in the republican party. There are no strong republicans that can defeat Tammy Baldwin, who is well liked for a WI democrat. Sean Duffy and Scott Walker are not running, so Baldwin will win. Heidi Heitkamp's seat is a doozie, but there are no challengers who are as well known as Heitkamp herself, which makes defeating rural democrats tough even when they were dominated in the presidential race by republicans. Montana is certainly vulnerable but Jon Tester is well liked and is liked by establishment democrats, progressives, and even moderate republicans/independents. That sounds too optimistic imo. I definitely can't see all of this happening. I don't believe most of the other projections at this moment (it's way too early to predict the outcome unless it's always been one party over the other), but this is certainly optimistic... 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chiesa52 132 Posted July 22, 2017 On 7/20/2017 at 12:05, GossipGabe said: The statement released by his office seems to contradict you there, although the wording is a bit confusing: The thing is, in glioblastomas, microscopic cells of the tumors tend to spread through the area, which can't be seen- unless he is very lucky, and I really hope he is, it's going to come back... he needs to be on next year's list for sure Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GossipGabe 333 Posted July 22, 2017 1 minute ago, chiesa52 said: The thing is, in glioblastomas, microscopic cells of the tumors tend to spread through the area, which can't be seen- unless he is very lucky, and I really hope he is, it's going to come back... he needs to be on next year's list for sure Yeah, I wasn't gonna suggest that he'd likely be cured (I know that statistics are not in his favor) I just wanted to mention that according to the statement released by Mayo Clinic, chemotherapy and radiotherapy are both part of their treatment plant. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ObakeFilter 893 Posted July 22, 2017 Some overview about his condition, compared to the one of Jimmy Carter. http://heavy.com/news/2017/07/john-mccain-brain-cancer-prognosis-survival-treatment-vs-jimmy-carter-why-worse-keytruda-immunotherapy/ 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CarolAnn 926 Posted July 22, 2017 20 hours ago, Zsa Zsa's leg said: Beto O'Rourke will defeat Cruz Not damn likely. Beto O'Rourke's family has a tremendous amount of baggage in El Paso that Cruz will not hesitate to dredge up. Cruz sits on a monstrous war chest, and while he may not be well liked in the Republican party he's light years more liked than anyone with a (D) after their name. Top everything off with the fact that no Democrat has won a statewide race here since 1994 and you come up with slim odds for ol' Beto. Democrats are the least trusted animals in Texas, losing to coyotes, jackrabbits and copperheads in the likability stakes. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,220 Posted July 22, 2017 I know it's not much to ask, but unless it's truely related John McCain, can we pretty please obstain from political posts from this thread? There are plenty of other threads to post political stuff in, such as the Donald Trump thread, the Politcal Frailty thread, and the Political Discussion And Ranting Thread. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CarolAnn 926 Posted July 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, Joey Russ said: I know it's not much to ask, but unless it's truely related John McCain, can we pretty please obstain from political posts from this thread? There are plenty of other threads to post political stuff in, such as the Donald Trump thread, the Politcal Frailty thread, and the Political Discussion And Ranting Thread. Abstain. Things swerve. They swerve back. I wouldn't worry about it. John McCain is a politician, and a damned influential one at that. His departure from the Senate will have huge ramifications - perhaps not in whether or not the Republicans keep the numbers, but definitely in whether or not there is any strong centrism in the Republican Senate delegation after his departure. It makes people start to think, and because McCain is the reason they are thinking their thoughts end up here. No man lives in a vacuum. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
msc 18,437 Posted July 22, 2017 Peggy Whitson, however, does currently live in a vacuum. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CarolAnn 926 Posted July 23, 2017 5 hours ago, msc said: Peggy Whitson, however, does currently live in a vacuum. Well, she is surrounded by vacuum, anyway. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Mad Hatter 1,092 Posted July 23, 2017 imagine if both Bush and Carter outlive McCain. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zsa Zsa's leg 884 Posted July 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, The Mad Hatter said: imagine if both Bush and Carter outlive McCain. Am I supposed to be amazed? shocked? an 80 y/o with a glioblastoma is way more likely to die sooner than 2 really old dudes with an average health history for someone of their age. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Mad Hatter 1,092 Posted July 23, 2017 I will cut you! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,220 Posted July 23, 2017 29 minutes ago, The Mad Hatter said: I will cut you! I thought you would've learned not to say things like that during your vacation... 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcreptile 10,964 Posted July 24, 2017 I have to laugh. Republicans are trying to convince McCain's doctors to allow him to travel to Washington: https://politicalwire.com/2017/07/24/republicans-try-get-mccain-back-vote/#disqus_thread Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
msc 18,437 Posted July 24, 2017 Imagine they got him all the way there, and then he voted against their bill for the hell of it. 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,220 Posted July 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, msc said: Imagine they got him all the way there, and then he voted against their bill for the hell of it. That would be so fucking hilarious. That would definitely make my day. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Mad Hatter 1,092 Posted July 25, 2017 Its streaming live on YouTuber thanks to the Washington post. Nothing has happened yet but when McCain shows up we'll get a good indication on whether he'll live to 2018. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zsa Zsa's leg 884 Posted July 25, 2017 Returns to senate. Frail and has a massive scar above his left eye. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
YoungWillz 21,029 Posted July 25, 2017 Dead Man Walking.... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
