Jump to content
Grim Reaper

3. Olivia De Havilland

Recommended Posts

98 today! Congratulations! :party:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While I suspect she'll see three digits, nothing is a certainty especially at her age. Anna Wing seemed perfectly healthy too and now she's a goner.

Umm...no disrespect to Anna Wing but there's no way she's in the same league as Olivia. Just look at the pics below and compare.

yatPGVw.jpg

 

Olivia de Havilland has more potential than any other 90+ celebrity in the world. Happy 98th!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

National Enquirer is reporting that she's experiencing her sad last days... which means she'll probably live to be 105.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/movies/2014/09/21/gone-with-the-wind-75th-anniversary/15446623/ -A friend of hers has described her current state last week: "She has the occasional health problem as people do in their 90s," he says. "But she is vivacious, sharp as a tack and very active."The National enquirer appear to be wrong again.I think Olivia could go on until she is 105 but she is too much of a regular fixture on this list and too famous for us to omit her!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Guest

http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/movies/2014/09/21/gone-with-the-wind-75th-anniversary/15446623/ -A friend of hers has described her current state last week: "She has the occasional health problem as people do in their 90s," he says. "But she is vivacious, sharp as a tack and very active."The National enquirer appear to be wrong again.I think Olivia could go on until she is 105 but she is too much of a regular fixture on this list and too famous for us to omit her!

She's 98.shes bound to be in her last days!(or at least years)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

National Enquirer is reporting that she's experiencing her sad last days... which means she'll probably live to be 105.

 

Sorry but for the 500th time we can't view the Enquirer website over here in Yoorup. We just get a blank white page with the message "service not available in your area". Could you guys please copy+paste some of the article or something next time.....? Even if you are saying it's crap..... :rolleyes:

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

National Enquirer is reporting that she's experiencing her sad last days... which means she'll probably live to be 105.

 

Sorry but for the 500th time we can't view the Enquirer website over here in Yoorup. We just get a blank white page with the message "service not available in your area". Could you guys please copy+paste some of the article or something next time.....? Even if you are saying it's crap..... :rolleyes:

Sorry, I haven't seen (or went looking for) the other 499 posts regarding the issue. Won't happen again (from me, anyway). Here's a screen cap for those who are curious:

 

Dont_Give_ADamn.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ha Good old National enquirer talking shite again! Why do they always say "sad last days" with regards to very elderly celebrities. Surely most people who are in their last days aren`t happy??? If this is true though they had more time to resolve the family feud than most people do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ha Good old National enquirer talking shite again! Why do they always say "sad last days" with regards to very elderly celebrities. Surely most people who are in their last days aren`t happy??? If this is true though they had more time to resolve the family feud than most people do.

 

And they always have some "guilt" or "anger" too, like this classic.

 

Dying-queens-new-agony.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Queen`s face in this is brilliant!Why they can`t just sell it under the premise of it being a satire I don`t know!Having said that out of this sordid love triangle the queen is probably dying in comparison the Phil the Greek and Gabor as they are both on this list!When Zsa Zsa read this Von Arsehole probably just told her they where pulling her leg!Which was hilarious until she said "pull the other one" in return!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't want Olivia to die, this is unfair. If only she had reconciled with Joan before her death, then none of this would have happened. :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

National Enquirer is reporting that she's experiencing her sad last days... which means she'll probably live to be 105.

 

Sorry but for the 500th time we can't view the Enquirer website over here in Yoorup. We just get a blank white page with the message "service not available in your area". Could you guys please copy+paste some of the article or something next time.....? Even if you are saying it's crap..... :rolleyes:

 

How come it is on sale in British Supermarkets but we cannot access the website? This seems to me a case of libel law lagging behind technology.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

National Enquirer is reporting that she's experiencing her sad last days... which means she'll probably live to be 105.

 

Sorry but for the 500th time we can't view the Enquirer website over here in Yoorup. We just get a blank white page with the message "service not available in your area". Could you guys please copy+paste some of the article or something next time.....? Even if you are saying it's crap..... :rolleyes:

 

Cache copy of The National Enquirer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am indeed correct I have just found out that the liklihood for a woman who is 96 of dying within the year is 25%.

 

So if we picked a list of 96 yearold women we should get 12 hits just by probability.

 

The statistics comes from a maths website on understanding uncertainty.

 

However the author might consider our use of his information a debasement of science.

Now that she is 98.5, the odds have increased to 29.2%. But at the same time, 70.8% says she will make it to 99.

 

Statistically speaking, at least one actor/actress born in 1916 will become a centenarian. At least if you compare it to previous cohorts in modern times (1903-1914). Ok, 1908 and 1911 were bad years, but almost none of them made it to 98 in the first place. The 1916:ers are numerous enough today that we don't have to worry if 5 of them die. Just as long as Olivia isn't one of them. Kirk Douglas has the disadvantage of being a man.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest theendisnigh

"I am indeed correct I have just found out that the liklihood for a woman who is 96 of dying within the year is 25%.

 

So if we picked a list of 96 yearold women we should get 12 hits just by probability."

 

If you picked a random list of fifty 96 year old women, you would indeed get around 12 hits just by probability. However, this is arguably just a crude estimate, and in a concrete case you should adjust the odds to account for what we know about the person in question.

 

For example, a random 98 year old male would be very likely to die this year, but Kirk Douglas might have some advantages that boost his chances of not dying. Considering his age, his health seems remarkably robust, has recently published a book and even gave an interview where you could sort of understand what he said. Olivia on the other hand, seems a more likely candidate, simply because she is much less active, hinting at her poorer health.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"I am indeed correct I have just found out that the liklihood for a woman who is 96 of dying within the year is 25%.

 

So if we picked a list of 96 yearold women we should get 12 hits just by probability."

 

If you picked a random list of fifty 96 year old women, you would indeed get around 12 hits just by probability. However, this is arguably just a crude estimate, and in a concrete case you should adjust the odds to account for what we know about the person in question.

 

For example, a random 98 year old male would be very likely to die this year, but Kirk Douglas might have some advantages that boost his chances of not dying. Considering his age, his health seems remarkably robust, has recently published a book and even gave an interview where you could sort of understand what he said. Olivia on the other hand, seems a more likely candidate, simply because she is much less active, hinting at her poorer health.

1. Being less active does not hint at being in bad health. Some people just prefer to retire in peace and quiet. She has been in the limelight since her late teens; so it's not shocking that she would want to quit acting since 1979. Not everyone craves attention all the time.

 

2. Even if she was in worse health than Kirk, it is a scientific fact that mortality rates are much higher for men than woman at any given age. Not only that, but women are "delayers" and can go on in poor shape for years, whilst men tend to drop dead instantly even if they were doing just fine the day before. There is a reason why Zsa Zsa Gabor has outlived Ernest Borgnine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest theendisnigh

"Being less active does not hint at being in bad health. (…) t is a scientific fact that mortality rates are much higher for men than woman at any given age."

Yes, knowing the baseline probability is important, and many people make the mistake of completely ignoring the baseline and just focusing on the specifics. Mean probabilities can be very helpful if you wanna come up a rough estimate for a random 98 year old male/female for whom you can't find any reliable (medical) information.

 

However, these figures are only averages, so they should be adjusted to account for any additional details that you can find about these people. For Olivia, you could probably use the baseline figure, since there's no reliable information on how she is affected by common age-related related diseases. On the other hand, for Kirk, you need to calculate the CONDITIONAL probability of a 98 year old man dying this year PROVIDED he doesn't suffer from serious cognitive impairment (at his age, a positive prognostic indicator), and is still active (publishing books, occasionally giving interviews and publishing articles/posts) etc. Of course, the adverse prognostic indicators, like his disabling stroke should also be taken into account.

 

Why I wouldn't say that activity is perfectly correlated with survival chances, I would insist that being active close to 100 is indicative of a better than average prognosis, while the lack of info in Olivia's case leaves us with the baseline as the best available estimate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

"Being less active does not hint at being in bad health. (…) t is a scientific fact that mortality rates are much higher for men than woman at any given age."

Yes, knowing the baseline probability is important, and many people make the mistake of completely ignoring the baseline and just focusing on the specifics. Mean probabilities can be very helpful if you wanna come up a rough estimate for a random 98 year old male/female for whom you can't find any reliable (medical) information.

 

However, these figures are only averages, so they should be adjusted to account for any additional details that you can find about these people. For Olivia, you could probably use the baseline figure, since there's no reliable information on how she is affected by common age-related related diseases. On the other hand, for Kirk, you need to calculate the CONDITIONAL probability of a 98 year old man dying this year PROVIDED he doesn't suffer from serious cognitive impairment (at his age, a positive prognostic indicator), and is still active (publishing books, occasionally giving interviews and publishing articles/posts) etc. Of course, the adverse prognostic indicators, like his disabling stroke should also be taken into account.

 

Why I wouldn't say that activity is perfectly correlated with survival chances, I would insist that being active close to 100 is indicative of a better than average prognosis, while the lack of info in Olivia's case leaves us with the baseline as the best available estimate.

 

Well, I know more about Olivia's health than I'm able to share here, but rest assured that she's in good health.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/01/29/olivie-de-havilland-gone-with-the-wind

 

Seemingly very well, lucid, sharp and physically robust. She seems determined to make 100.

Her memory is enviable: She vividly recalls lying in her crib as a baby and hearing the clink-clink of her nanny preparing her bottle.

Er, given that ordinary people nearly universally suffer from a phenomenon called "infantile amnesia" (inability to remember what they did as babies), I'd say that she's either making things up (this is likely unintended, in which case she might not be as sharp after all), or she has the most remarkable memory I've ever heard of. Either way, it's an interesting article.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think that is unlikely also.My earliest memory is at 21 months when our washing machine broke down.It came back to me when I was about ten and my parents confirmed it was true and found the bill.On the subject of Olivia though she seems to be doing great.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am indeed correct I have just found out that the liklihood for a woman who is 96 of dying within the year is 25%.

 

So if we picked a list of 96 yearold women we should get 12 hits just by probability.

 

The statistics comes from a maths website on understanding uncertainty.

 

However the author might consider our use of his information a debasement of science.

It would be interesting to test this probability. So below is a list of 20 randomly selected 96-year old women without any regards to specific health problems that they might have. Let's see how many are still with us on March 30, 2016.

 

 

1. Carol Rama (April 1918)

2. Naomi Replansky (May 1918)

3. Patachou (June 1918)

4. Alexa Suelzer (June 1918)

5. Gladys Maccabe (June 1918)

6. Gunnel Vallquist (June 1918)

7. Brenda Milner (July 1918)

8. Marjorie Lord (July 1918)

9. Doris Grumbach (July 1918)

10. Marcia Brown (July 1918)

11. Katherine Johnson (August 1918)

12. Anneliese Uhlig (August 1918)

13. Baby Peggy (October 1918)

14. Jean Canfield (October 1918)

15. Thelma Long (October 1918)

16. Bodil Schmidt-Nielsen (November 1918)

17. Louise Tobin (November 1918)

18. Sheila Mercier (January 1919)

19. Lela Swift (February 1919)

20. Patricia Laffan (March 1919)

 

25% of 20 = 5

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

I am indeed correct I have just found out that the liklihood for a woman who is 96 of dying within the year is 25%.So if we picked a list of 96 yearold women we should get 12 hits just by probability.

The statistics comes from a maths website on understanding uncertainty.

However the author might consider our use of his information a debasement of science.

 

It would be interesting to test this probability. So below is a list of 20 randomly selected 96-year old women without any regards to specific health problems that they might have. Let's see how many are still with us on March 30, 2016
One thing that you might want to consider: the 25% figure should be true if you pick random 96 yo females from the general population. On the other hand, a list of 20 celebrities might have some special characteristics, introducing "systemic bias".

 

Bias #1 - money. Not all celebrities are filthy rich, but on average, they are wealthier than random members of the general population. In countries like the US, this can significantly influence the quality of healthcare services that they can afford, and consequently, it might improve their survival rates.

Bias #2 - attention. Unfortunately, ordinary elderly people without living (close) relatives might be neglected. Celebrities, on the other hand, are less likely to suffer this fate, they have the status and financial means to get more attention or hire privare nurses etc.

Bias #3 - lifestyle.

etc.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

99 Today! :birthday::party:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow... I just read her biography, mainly about the sibling rivalry, and wow.... Olivia seemed like a bitch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×

Important Information

Your use of this forum is subject to our Terms of Use