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3. Olivia De Havilland

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I am indeed correct I have just found out that the liklihood for a woman who is 96 of dying within the year is 25%.

 

So if we picked a list of 96 yearold women we should get 12 hits just by probability.

 

The statistics comes from a maths website on understanding uncertainty.

 

However the author might consider our use of his information a debasement of science.

It would be interesting to test this probability. So below is a list of 20 randomly selected 96-year old women without any regards to specific health problems that they might have. Let's see how many are still with us on March 30, 2016.

 

1. Carol Rama (April 1918)

2. Naomi Replansky (May 1918)

3. Patachou (June 1918)

4. Alexa Suelzer (June 1918)

5. Gladys Maccabe (June 1918)

6. Gunnel Vallquist (June 1918)

7. Brenda Milner (July 1918)

8. Marjorie Lord (July 1918)

9. Doris Grumbach (July 1918)

10. Marcia Brown (July 1918)

11. Katherine Johnson (August 1918)

12. Anneliese Uhlig (August 1918)

13. Baby Peggy (October 1918)

14. Jean Canfield (October 1918)

15. Thelma Long (October 1918)

16. Bodil Schmidt-Nielsen (November 1918)

17. Louise Tobin (November 1918)

18. Sheila Mercier (January 1919)

19. Lela Swift (February 1919)

20. Patricia Laffan (March 1919)

 

25% of 20 = 5

 

There are still circa 2.5 months left, but here is an update for my little "Nonagenarian Probability Death Pool." Jean Canfield appearently died in 2000, which I had no idea at the time of posting the list...

 

So far, there are 8 deaths out of 19, which equals to 42% which is above the expected 25%. I guess Gabe's theory about celebrities having a decreased mortality can be considered refuted here. And there's still time remaining.

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Accepts 2016 Oldie of the Year award - recorded message included: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-35470633

I just got two breaking news reports one about north Korea lunching a satellite and the other about Hillary winning the democratic results.

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Is there anything the Koreans wont eat?

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Is there anything the Koreans wont eat?

 

 

I've heard the North Koreans struggle with the concept of an after-dinner mint!

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Accepts 2016 Oldie of the Year award - recorded message included: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-35470633

She looks good for a 99 year old plus she's clearly still got her marbles which is half the battle at her age. Having said that at her age a decline can happen pretty much overnight so no guarantee she'll make the century.

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Is there anything the Koreans wont eat?

I've heard the North Koreans struggle with the concept of an after-dinner mint!

Aye, except Fat Boy of course and then only after the cheese and biscuits.

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Vanity Fair, April 29, 2016: http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2016/04/olivia-de-havilland-joan-fontaine-sibling-rivalry

 

Olivia attributes her amazingly healthy longevity to “the three L’s—love, laughter, and light.” She does the Times crossword puzzle every day, a passion she developed as a teenager, and looks at every pain or symptom as a mystery to be solved and conquered, not a harbinger of doom. No one on earth is more positive. A lot of her precepts for perpetual health are those she learned in Camp Fire Girls, where her name was Thunderbird. She told her French doctor she plans to live to 110, which explains why she has been in no rush to write her memoirs. A terrific writer, she authored a memorable tribute to her friend Mickey Rooney in Time in 2014 that was a masterpiece of focused and powerful emotion, remembrance, and regret. Her book—should she write it—could be the last and best word on the Hollywood that, to this day, she epitomizes.

 

 

She remains as busy as ever. At our last meeting, she was in the midst of writing a thank-you address to last year’s Cannes Film Festival, which honored her, Jane Fonda, and producer Megan Ellison. Then she led me out to the Saint James’s grand stairwell atrium and did five sprightly laps around its perimeter. “One hundred ten!” she exulted, her plus-10 version of the Italian toast “Cent’anni.

 

Ladies and gentlemen, this is a supercentenarian in the making! It's time we all realized this. :)

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Vanity Fair, April 29, 2016: http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2016/04/olivia-de-havilland-joan-fontaine-sibling-rivalry

 

Olivia attributes her amazingly healthy longevity to “the three L’s—love, laughter, and light.” She does the Times crossword puzzle every day, a passion she developed as a teenager, and looks at every pain or symptom as a mystery to be solved and conquered, not a harbinger of doom. No one on earth is more positive. A lot of her precepts for perpetual health are those she learned in Camp Fire Girls, where her name was Thunderbird. She told her French doctor she plans to live to 110, which explains why she has been in no rush to write her memoirs. A terrific writer, she authored a memorable tribute to her friend Mickey Rooney in Time in 2014 that was a masterpiece of focused and powerful emotion, remembrance, and regret. Her book—should she write it—could be the last and best word on the Hollywood that, to this day, she epitomizes.

 

 

 

She remains as busy as ever. At our last meeting, she was in the midst of writing a thank-you address to last year’s Cannes Film Festival, which honored her, Jane Fonda, and producer Megan Ellison. Then she led me out to the Saint James’s grand stairwell atrium and did five sprightly laps around its perimeter. “One hundred ten!” she exulted, her plus-10 version of the Italian toast “Cent’anni.

 

Ladies and gentlemen, this is a supercentenarian in the making! It's time we all realized this. :)

"One hundred thirty!" So I am a 130-centenarian (whatever the fuck you call that) in the making?

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Vanity Fair, April 29, 2016: http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2016/04/olivia-de-havilland-joan-fontaine-sibling-rivalry

 

Olivia attributes her amazingly healthy longevity to “the three L’s—love, laughter, and light.” She does the Times crossword puzzle every day, a passion she developed as a teenager, and looks at every pain or symptom as a mystery to be solved and conquered, not a harbinger of doom. No one on earth is more positive. A lot of her precepts for perpetual health are those she learned in Camp Fire Girls, where her name was Thunderbird. She told her French doctor she plans to live to 110, which explains why she has been in no rush to write her memoirs. A terrific writer, she authored a memorable tribute to her friend Mickey Rooney in Time in 2014 that was a masterpiece of focused and powerful emotion, remembrance, and regret. Her book—should she write it—could be the last and best word on the Hollywood that, to this day, she epitomizes.

 

 

 

She remains as busy as ever. At our last meeting, she was in the midst of writing a thank-you address to last year’s Cannes Film Festival, which honored her, Jane Fonda, and producer Megan Ellison. Then she led me out to the Saint James’s grand stairwell atrium and did five sprightly laps around its perimeter. “One hundred ten!” she exulted, her plus-10 version of the Italian toast “Cent’anni.

 

Ladies and gentlemen, this is a supercentenarian in the making! It's time we all realized this. :)

 

 

I've wondered the same about HM Queen Elizabeth II

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I dunno.

May 2016 we've already seen the last cast member of War of the Worlds as well as Casablanca die. Can GWTW be far behind? Might be a nice trifecta.

SC

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I dunno.

May 2016 we've already seen the last cast member of War of the Worlds as well as Casablanca die. Can GWTW be far behind? Might be a nice trifecta.

SC

Also Citizen Kane last cast member, Kathryn Trosper Pooper, died on March the 8th.

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I dunno.

May 2016 we've already seen the last cast member of War of the Worlds as well as Casablanca die. Can GWTW be far behind? Might be a nice trifecta.

SC

Isn`t Olivia de Havilland`s on screen son on GWTW still with us too?

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Vanity Fair, April 29, 2016: http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2016/04/olivia-de-havilland-joan-fontaine-sibling-rivalry

 

Olivia attributes her amazingly healthy longevity to “the three L’s—love, laughter, and light.” She does the Times crossword puzzle every day, a passion she developed as a teenager, and looks at every pain or symptom as a mystery to be solved and conquered, not a harbinger of doom. No one on earth is more positive. A lot of her precepts for perpetual health are those she learned in Camp Fire Girls, where her name was Thunderbird. She told her French doctor she plans to live to 110, which explains why she has been in no rush to write her memoirs. A terrific writer, she authored a memorable tribute to her friend Mickey Rooney in Time in 2014 that was a masterpiece of focused and powerful emotion, remembrance, and regret. Her book—should she write it—could be the last and best word on the Hollywood that, to this day, she epitomizes.

 

 

 

She remains as busy as ever. At our last meeting, she was in the midst of writing a thank-you address to last year’s Cannes Film Festival, which honored her, Jane Fonda, and producer Megan Ellison. Then she led me out to the Saint James’s grand stairwell atrium and did five sprightly laps around its perimeter. “One hundred ten!” she exulted, her plus-10 version of the Italian toast “Cent’anni.

 

Ladies and gentlemen, this is a supercentenarian in the making! It's time we all realized this. :)

"One hundred thirty!" So I am a 130-centenarian (whatever the fuck you call that) in the making?

 

I don`t think she will make 110 as she was in hospital a couple of years ago and has bad eyesight and hearing.I would give her five years or so.When her eyesight and hearing gets worse I think she will give up on life.Also there is always the chance of a fall with her eyesight problems.I would be astounded if she didn`t make 100 though.

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I dunno.

May 2016 we've already seen the last cast member of War of the Worlds as well as Casablanca die. Can GWTW be far behind? Might be a nice trifecta.

SC

Isn`t Olivia de Havilland`s on screen son on GWTW still with us too?

 

 

Yes, Mickey Kuhn is still alive.

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I dunno.

May 2016 we've already seen the last cast member of War of the Worlds as well as Casablanca die. Can GWTW be far behind? Might be a nice trifecta.

SC

Isn`t Olivia de Havilland`s on screen son on GWTW still with us too?

 

 

Yes, Mickey Kuhn is still alive.

 

Just checked there are 2 credited survivors as well as de Havilland`s newborn son played by Patrick Curtis who was uncredited.

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Vanity Fair, April 29, 2016: http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2016/04/olivia-de-havilland-joan-fontaine-sibling-rivalry

 

Olivia attributes her amazingly healthy longevity to “the three L’s—love, laughter, and light.” She does the Times crossword puzzle every day, a passion she developed as a teenager, and looks at every pain or symptom as a mystery to be solved and conquered, not a harbinger of doom. No one on earth is more positive. A lot of her precepts for perpetual health are those she learned in Camp Fire Girls, where her name was Thunderbird. She told her French doctor she plans to live to 110, which explains why she has been in no rush to write her memoirs. A terrific writer, she authored a memorable tribute to her friend Mickey Rooney in Time in 2014 that was a masterpiece of focused and powerful emotion, remembrance, and regret. Her book—should she write it—could be the last and best word on the Hollywood that, to this day, she epitomizes.

 

 

 

She remains as busy as ever. At our last meeting, she was in the midst of writing a thank-you address to last year’s Cannes Film Festival, which honored her, Jane Fonda, and producer Megan Ellison. Then she led me out to the Saint James’s grand stairwell atrium and did five sprightly laps around its perimeter. “One hundred ten!” she exulted, her plus-10 version of the Italian toast “Cent’anni.

 

Ladies and gentlemen, this is a supercentenarian in the making! It's time we all realized this. :)

"One hundred thirty!" So I am a 130-centenarian (whatever the f**k you call that) in the making?

 

No, you also have to do Times crossword puzzles on a daily basis and join the girl scout group Camp Fire like Olivia. Although, I would advise against the latter unless you want to answer a few questions down at the police station.

 

I dunno.

May 2016 we've already seen the last cast member of War of the Worlds as well as Casablanca die. Can GWTW be far behind? Might be a nice trifecta.

SC

Who was the last cast member of War of the Worlds? If you're talking about the 1953 flick, then we have Ann Robinson & William Phipps among us. But you're probably referring to an obscure version that no one's heard of.

 

Also Citizen Kane last cast member, Kathryn Trosper Pooper, died on March the 8th.

 

 

What was her cause of death? Severe case of diarrhea?

 

I don`t think she will make 110 as she was in hospital a couple of years ago and has bad eyesight and hearing.I would give her five years or so.When her eyesight and hearing gets worse I think she will give up on life.Also there is always the chance of a fall with her eyesight problems.I would be astounded if she didn`t make 100 though.

 

 

Hmm...Isn't it a good sign though that she went to hospital, meaning that she's health-conscious and sought treatment for whatever ailment she had? As far as deteriorating sensory system goes, it all boils down to the elderly's personality and outlook on life whether they'll give up on life or not. Also, somehow, I doubt Olivia would stubbornly and stupidly continue walking if her eyesight were to reach Stevie Wonder-level on the blindness scale.

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I dunno.

May 2016 we've already seen the last cast member of War of the Worlds as well as Casablanca die. Can GWTW be far behind? Might be a nice trifecta.

SC

 

Who was the last cast member of War of the Worlds? If you're talking about the 1953 flick, then we have Ann Robinson & William Phipps among us. But you're probably referring to an obscure version that no one's heard of.

I wouldn't call the 1938 radio version (by Orson Welles) obscure – it certainly generated quite a bit of publicity, even more than the 1953 film version.

 

As for Olivia, she can only do crosswords on a daily basis as long as her eyesight allows her to do that. Being deprived of her sigh and hearing, she would have no means of remaining active and it would probably sap her of her will to live. And supercentenarians are extremely rare for a reason.

 

Let's suppose that she's much healthier than your average 100 year old, so that she only has a 30% chance to die each year as opposed to over 40% like a normal person (at her age, any fall or pneumonia etc. could be fatal). Then the probability of her becoming the first Oscar-winning supercentenarian would be (1-0.3)^10 = 0.028. A tiny, tiny chance.

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As for Olivia, she can only do crosswords on a daily basis as long as her eyesight allows her to do that.

 

 

Not at all, she would just need someone to assist by reading out the clues and going "it's 5 letters, blank blank L blank R". It requires more mental exercise than with the visuals for sure, but people adapt.

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I dunno.

May 2016 we've already seen the last cast member of War of the Worlds as well as Casablanca die. Can GWTW be far behind? Might be a nice trifecta.

SC

Who was the last cast member of War of the Worlds? If you're talking about the 1953 flick, then we have Ann Robinson & William Phipps among us. But you're probably referring to an obscure version that no one's heard of.

I wouldn't call the 1938 radio version (by Orson Welles) obscure – it certainly generated quite a bit of publicity, even more than the 1953 film version.

 

As for Olivia, she can only do crosswords on a daily basis as long as her eyesight allows her to do that. Being deprived of her sigh and hearing, she would have no means of remaining active and it would probably sap her of her will to live. And supercentenarians are extremely rare for a reason.

 

Let's suppose that she's much healthier than your average 100 year old, so that she only has a 30% chance to die each year as opposed to over 40% like a normal person (at her age, any fall or pneumonia etc. could be fatal). Then the probability of her becoming the first Oscar-winning supercentenarian would be (1-0.3)^10 = 0.028. A tiny, tiny chance.

Sap her of her will to live? No way. There are multiple ways for human beings to have meaningful interactions with their surroundings. The key word is adapting, just like the example Toast gave above. Aging is a gradual process, meaning that people don't just go to bed one day feeling healthy and spry, only to wake up the next feeling old and frail. Now, the shock of a overwhelming and/or quick (negative) change could leave a person feeling suicidal.

 

Olivia has been a senior citizen since the early 1980s, surely there are things that she was able to do back then that she can't do now. But, these changes came step-by-step and she probably found ways to cope with them as they came. And judging by her self-confidence regarding her own longevity, I'm sure she will continue to stay mentally strong even facing the worst of adversities. Fun fact: Susannah Jones, the world's oldest woman who died recently was, according to Wikipedia at least, legally blind for the last ~17 years or so.

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Konichiwa, DeathList forum members. It is now 1 July 2016 in Japan. Having been born in the Japanese capital Tokyo on 1 July 1916 to British parents, it is now official that Olivia de Havilland has become a centenarian. :birthday2::party: When she was selected by the DL committee for the first time in late 2004, I bet very few people expected the then 88-year old actress to hang in there for over a decade. She has outlived countless other DL entries over the years, and the fact that she is picked over and over again is just a testament to the fact that she's too big a star to not have her name being displayed in this honourable(?) website.

 

Indeed, her career has been impressive. Already a Hollywood A-lister in the mid-1930s, her arguably best and most challenging performances came in the 1940s, where she ultimately won two Academy Awards. Thank God she was able to break free from her Warner Brothers contract by taking them to court. She semi-retired from acting in the 1950s, when she moved to France with her then-husband Pierre Galante. She still lives in Paris today, so those who don't consider her 100 years old yet will have to wait almost six or seven hours more.

 

Keep in mind that her journey doesn't end here. Age is just a number, and she could just as well live for another few years, who knows?

 

Lastly, some fun trivia for those who like interesting coincidences:

 

When the play A Midsummer Night's Dream was produced in 1934, the following cast was initially chosen for the role of Hermia:

 

Hermia: Gloria Stuart

Hermia (1st understudy): Jean Rouverol

Hermia (2nd understudy): Olivia de Havilland

 

Olivia ended up getting the role eventually, and also in the film version a year later.

 

Guess who is turning 100 in a mere seven days? I call it the 'Hermian centenarian phenomenon'. ;)

 

Sincerely,

 

Predictor

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She is France so not officially 100 for a few more hours.If she died in the next couple of hours it would still say 99 on death certificate.

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She is France so not officially 100 for a few more hours.If she died in the next couple of hours it would still say 99 on death certificate.

She lived 99 years but this ain't one.

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Konichiwa, DeathList forum members. It is now 1 July 2016 in Japan. Having been born in the Japanese capital Tokyo on 1 July 1916 to British parents, it is now official that Olivia de Havilland has become a centenarian. :birthday2::party: When she was selected by the DL committee for the first time in late 2004, I bet very few people expected the then 88-year old actress to hang in there for over a decade. She has outlived countless other DL entries over the years, and the fact that she is picked over and over again is just a testament to the fact that she's too big a star to not have her name being displayed in this honourable(?) website.

 

Indeed, her career has been impressive. Already a Hollywood A-lister in the mid-1930s, her arguably best and most challenging performances came in the 1940s, where she ultimately won two Academy Awards. Thank God she was able to break free from her Warner Brothers contract by taking them to court. She semi-retired from acting in the 1950s, when she moved to France with her then-husband Pierre Galante. She still lives in Paris today, so those who don't consider her 100 years old yet will have to wait almost six or seven hours more.

 

Keep in mind that her journey doesn't end here. Age is just a number, and she could just as well live for another few years, who knows?

 

Lastly, some fun trivia for those who like interesting coincidences:

 

When the play A Midsummer Night's Dream was produced in 1934, the following cast was initially chosen for the role of Hermia:

 

Hermia: Gloria Stuart

Hermia (1st understudy): Jean Rouverol

Hermia (2nd understudy): Olivia de Havilland

 

Olivia ended up getting the role eventually, and also in the film version a year later.

 

Guess who is turning 100 in a mere seven days? I call it the 'Hermian centenarian phenomenon'. ;)

 

Sincerely,

 

Predictor

 

Gloria Stuard died aged 100. I guess it would be crazy if Jean Rouverol and Olivia de Havilland would also die aged 100.

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Death on her 100th birthday, now that is something you don't see every day....and July 1st is a popular day to die :P happy 100th

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