2019 General Election - 4 way Clusterfuck or a End to Brexit?

[Deathray 2,941]

Ouch

 

 

 

[Deathray 2,941]

Jo Swinson absolutely mauled on question time.

[the_engineer 1,415]

Could labour end up with under 200 seats? 

[Deathray 2,941]

17 hours ago, the_engineer said:

Could labour end up with under 200 seats? 

 

Plausible, but I think we'll narrowly avoid that scenario.

[Deathray 2,941]

19 hours ago, the_engineer said:

Could labour end up with under 200 seats? 

 

Just doing some rummaging through the stats and I don't think this is at all likely.

 

In the post-war era, Labour's worst performance was 1983 wih 27.6% of the vote and 209 seats....

 

It would take a biblical Tory landslide in order for us to do worse than that to be frank.  (although the Tories having managed less than 200 seats four times since the war in 1945, 1997, 2001 and 2005,  (note 3 are one after each other) shows the kind of uphill struggle we're likely to have if we do end up in that state). 

 

You'd be looking at a Labour vote share in the low 20s or an incredibly high (10% in constituency there standing in) Brexit vote share for Labour to come away with less than 200 seats. It's certainly a realistic worst case scenario (to borrow a government phrase) but I just can't see that happening. Obviously the Scotland factor plays into it, as if we'd lost Scotland in 1983 we'd have been well short of the 200 seats.

 

The last time we genuinely got less than 200 seats was 1935 with 154 seats (although this was due to vote distribution more than anything as Lab actually got 38% of the vote in that election; a mere , I certainly can't see Labour doing that badly at least.). Of course that was a recovery from 52 seats in 1934, which if we were to end up with that few in this election would be the end of the Labour Party as we know it.... 

 

[TQR 14,402]

My personal highlight of the Tory campaign so far...

 

 

[Deathray 2,941]

2 hours ago, The Quim Reaper said:

My personal highlight of the Tory campaign so far...

 

 

 

Having quite the campaign is Lee Anderson

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50474572

[Deathray 2,941]

Fuck me, Andrew Neil's sit down with Corbyn was a bit excruciating....

[Deathray 2,941]

 

[Deathray 2,941]

If you thought the mainstream candidates weren't quite whacky enough for you this election; you might be in luck. If you live in Southend West.....

 

'Joseph 77'

 

https://www.queensbrexit.com/

 

This is either some sort of very weird performance art or we really should look at mental health screening parliamentary candidates....

[ladyfiona 2,593]

I don't wish to vote for Conservatives or for Labour so i'm going for Liberal Democrats despite where I live being a safe Conservative seat for as long as I can remember.

[Toast 16,152]

52 minutes ago, ladyfiona said:

I don't wish to vote for Conservatives or for Labour so i'm going for Liberal Democrats despite where I live being a safe Conservative seat for as long as I can remember.

 

Maidenhead?  Windsor?  Wokingham?

Mine has been messed up by both the Lib Dems and the Greens deciding to stand.  Stupid.

[time 8,618]

45 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

Maidenhead?  Windsor?  Wokingham?

Mine has been messed up by both the Lib Dems and the Greens deciding to stand.  Stupid.

Similar position here, where the only plausible opposition to the Tories is Labour, but both the Lib Dems and Greens are standing.

 

If that wasn't bad enough, the Green candidate is already a local councillor and Mayor and an MEP.

[Deathray 2,941]

Jonathan Bartley co-leader of the notoriously Islamophobic  Green Party advocates banning halal meat.....

 

Swift apology and clarification that he also supports banning other bad ways to kill animals...

 

 

 

[En Passant 3,743]

Quite right too.

Whether you eat meat or not, unnecessary cruelty should not be tolerated under any circumstances, be that force feeding for foie gras or bleeding out whilst still alive for spurious religious reasons.

 

I realise that's a simplistic answer in that whenever you delve into the production of any animal product it's almost inevitable that profits come before animal considerations. It should all stop. But halal and foie gras are low hanging fruit as targets.

[ladyfiona 2,593]

23 hours ago, Toast said:

 

Maidenhead?  Windsor?  Wokingham?

Mine has been messed up by both the Lib Dems and the Greens deciding to stand.  Stupid.

 

Ascot. So much old money around this area.

[Toast 16,152]

56 minutes ago, ladyfiona said:

 

Ascot. So much old money around this area.

 

So which constituency is that? 

As for money, our outgoing MP owns most of Berkshire.

[ladyfiona 2,593]

On 30/11/2019 at 19:01, Toast said:

 

So which constituency is that? 

As for money, our outgoing MP owns most of Berkshire.

 

Windsor and Maidenhead where MP is Adam Afriyie, he votes based on his business interests.

[Deathray 2,941]

Okay then - with just over a week to go I'm calling it now.

 

Hung Parliament

 

Tories Largest Party

 

Tories unable to form a stable government leading to

 

Labour minority government that lasts less than 6 months before GE (held with second referendum)

 

Labour and SNP alone gain enough to govern with an overall majority at aforementioned GE 

 

 

[msc 18,479]

Boris majority of 30. Mostly down to seats where Lib Dem increased vote lets Tories in (Kensington for example).

[TQR 14,402]

I've just got a sneaky feeling it's gonna be quite bad for the Tories. Hung like Ron Jeremy.

 

Quim's Exit Poll (based on bollocks all):

 

CON - 284

LAB - 259

LD - 36

SNP - 37

[msc 18,479]

25 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said:

I've just got a sneaky feeling it's gonna be quite bad for the Tories. Hung like Ron Jeremy.

 

Quim's Exit Poll (based on bollocks all):

 

CON - 284

LAB - 259

LD - 36

SNP - 37 

 

Add the Speaker, Caroline Lucas, 4 Plaid, and 18 N Irish MPs and you still have 10 to play with there.

[Deathray 2,941]

2 hours ago, msc said:

 

Add the Speaker, Caroline Lucas, 4 Plaid, and 18 N Irish MPs and you still have 10 to play with there.

 

Looking at his low SNP seat share those ten would go roughly 5 and 5 to the Tories and Labour? 

 

 

Anyway an expansion seat wise on my apropos of nout prediction above.

 

Great Britain

Conservative 293

Labour 271

SNP 45

Lib Dem 15

Plaid 5

Speaker 1

Green 1

Independent 1 (Claire Wright - Devon)

 

Northern Irish 

Sinn Fein 6

SDLP 3

DUP 8

Sylvia Hermon 1

 

The long and short of it is no viable  Tory government. 

And no real viable Labour government, hence the minority where Labour try and pull a trade deal together to take back to the people which squeaks through with the support of Lib Dems and SNP (giving it a majority in the commons) and a new GE is held alongside the ref.

 

[YoungWillz 21,062]

1 hour ago, Kinnock said:

 

Looking at his low SNP seat share those ten would go roughly 5 and 5 to the Tories and Labour? 

 

 

Anyway an expansion seat wise on my apropos of nout prediction above.

 

England

Conservative 293

Labour 271

SNP 45

Lib Dem 15

Plaid 5

Speaker 1

Green 1

Independent 1 (Claire Wright - Devon)

 

 

 

SNP getting 45 seats in England might be a stretch?

[Deathray 2,941]

23 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

SNP getting 45 seats in England might be a stretch?

 

To be honest if they fielded candidates down here, or developed a sister party in England; they probably could.

 

 

Anyway the Scottish peoples short-sighted embracing of the SNP fucks me off.

 

This is the 2015 and 2017 election results adjusted if you hadn't embraced the SNP and instead went back to loving Labour on 2005 and before scales....

 

2015

 

Con - 330

Lab - 272

LD - 8 

 

2017

 

Con - 317

Lab - 296

LD - 8

 

Labour going into this election defending 296 seats would make us look much more like a potential governing party. The Scots self-indulgent fellation over the SNP has essentially froze Labour out of government and let the Tories in.

 

 

 

 

(inb4 I get chastised by the north of the borders for being exactly the kind of English Labourite who takes Scottish Labour voters for granted and drove you all to the SNP....)