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Sean

By -Election Bingo 2019-2024

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It's certainly not him or "BORIS ARRESTED" would be headline news everywhere, but I have to say I did a bit of a double take seeing the exact description of Tory, Male, 50s, London... :blink:

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43 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

I’ve seen one tweet saying his seat is in London but I’m not sure if that is accurate at all. 


That’s accurate.

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6 minutes ago, Ulitzer95 said:


That’s accurate.

I have a suspicion of which one of the male Tory mp’s in their 50’s in London it is but might be wrong.

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1 hour ago, TQR said:

Another Tory MP (unnamed male in his 50s) has been arrested on suspicion of rape & sexual assault offences spanning years (starting in 2002), and for misconduct in a public office. Banned from attending parliament.

 

Well ignoring @Ulitzer95's usually reliable inside track for a moment, there were 200 MPs elected in 2019 who were 50-59 (numbers will be slightly different now), and a third of Parliament are women, so that roughly removes around 70 of them, and the Tories make up half of Parliament so that means there are only around 65 Tory MPs who fit the bill. Banned from Parliament means it would only take someone with a piece of paper to cross off every MP on the list they see in Parliament and it wouldn't take long to reveal the name. I can't see how the name stays out of the press for too long. (unless there's an injunction?)

 

Following Ulitzer's hints, 5 minutes research has Boris as a 1-in-6 possibility of being our culprit (though as others have said, I suspect we'd know if that was the case). In which case there are 5 possible candidates, all of whom appear to have been active in London at the time in question (but then again, so was Boris...)

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So we know he's in his 50s and a Tory. That's confirmed.

 

If as others say, he is a London MP who was already an MP during the time the allegations refer to (2002-2004), there are only two possibilities. One is the Prime Minister and the other is way out East. 

 

It's possible, I guess, that the person was active in politics at that time - turn of the century - but not specifically an MP.

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5 minutes ago, Ulitzer95 said:

 

 

 

The 56 year old member (heh heh) for Romford!

 

A Thatcherite Eurosceptic who landed in trouble previously when claiming £400,000 in second home expenses despite the fact his main residence (with his mum) was a mere 17 miles away.

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47 minutes ago, Ulitzer95 said:

 

That was who I was suspecting. 

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Does it actually say anywhere that the MP's constituency is in London?  Because all I've seen is that the alleged offences took place in London.

 

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35 minutes ago, Toast said:

Does it actually say anywhere that the MP's constituency is in London?  Because all I've seen is that the alleged offences took place in London.

 

No, but Ulitzer suggested it was a London MP, and he's usually somewhat in the know when it comes to politics.

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2 hours ago, NJD123 said:

So we know he's in his 50s and a Tory. That's confirmed.

 

If as others say, he is a London MP who was already an MP during the time the allegations refer to (2002-2004), there are only two possibilities. One is the Prime Minister and the other is way out East. 

 

It's possible, I guess, that the person was active in politics at that time - turn of the century - but not specifically an MP.

 

 

Rosindell (current maj 17,893) and Francois (maj 31,000) were both first elected to parliament in 2001, just sayin'

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On 30/04/2022 at 18:35, The Old Crem said:

I’d say there is a pretty decent chance of both by-elections being on the same date. 

That date could be 23rd June

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8 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

That date could be 23rd June

 

Also the day the EFL fixtures come out for next season. 

 

 

 

 

 

Just me, then...I'll get me coat!

 

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Claudia Webbe has lost her appeal against her conviction.

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39 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Claudia Webbe has lost her appeal against her conviction.

 

Had her prison sentence quashed in favour of community service, and the compensation for her victim all but wiped out. An odd way of losing, imo.

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5 hours ago, msc said:

 

Had her prison sentence quashed in favour of community service, and the compensation for her victim all but wiped out. An odd way of losing, imo.

Yes it's enough to avert a recall petition, and as she doesn't seem to be up for resigning a by-election looks off the cards. It looks like she isn't getting the Labour whip back so come the GE that seat could be interesting.

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As always, take with a healthy pinch of salt but the Sunday Times says today that polling puts Labour 20 points up in the Wakefield by-election.

 

The same report says rebels claim 67 letters have been submitted, taking them well above the 54 needed and, further, that 190 MPs are prepared to vote against him in a confidence vote, 10 more than necessary.

 

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54 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

As always, take with a healthy pinch of salt but the Sunday Times says today that polling puts Labour 20 points up in the Wakefield by-election.

 

The same report says rebels claim 67 letters have been submitted, taking them well above the 54 needed and, further, that 190 MPs are prepared to vote against him in a confidence vote, 10 more than necessary.

 

Read today that Sir Graham  Brady may not count the letters until June 24th. Which could be taken one of two ways. These by-elections are do or die for Boris or that GB wants Boris gone and thinks two stonking defeats at either end of the political spectrum would remove the benefit of the doubt about electoral success 

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18 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Read today that Sir Graham  Brady may not count the letters until June 24th. Which could be taken one of two ways. These by-elections are do or die for Boris or that GB wants Boris gone and thinks two stonking defeats at either end of the political spectrum would remove the benefit of the doubt about electoral success 

I wasn't aware he could do that.

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10 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Read today that Sir Graham  Brady may not count the letters until June 24th. Which could be taken one of two ways. These by-elections are do or die for Boris or that GB wants Boris gone and thinks two stonking defeats at either end of the political spectrum would remove the benefit of the doubt about electoral success 

Is Brady taking the next 19 days to attend counting school?

 

 

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1 hour ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Read today that Sir Graham  Brady may not count the letters until June 24th. Which could be taken one of two ways. These by-elections are do or die for Boris or that GB wants Boris gone and thinks two stonking defeats at either end of the political spectrum would remove the benefit of the doubt about electoral success 

 

 

I'm with Sean above, fairly sure that's unconstitutional - even by Tory standards - the whole point of Brady's role in this being to be seen to be impartial. Just about acceptable that he ignores the numbers to avoid eclipsing the unique celebrations this weekend, hanging on for a political purpose on June 24th is a different matter. In any case, what if someone found Keir Starmer with his knob in a donkey between now and then, and there was a last minute swing to the altogether more decent Tories as a result?

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1 hour ago, Sean said:

I wasn't aware he could do that.


He can’t.

 

Only in the parallel universe of “I’ve heard that Graham Brady blah blah blah” down the pub where barflies chat shite can he do that.

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5 hours ago, Ulitzer95 said:


He can’t.

 

Only in the parallel universe of “I’ve heard that Graham Brady blah blah blah” down the pub where barflies chat shite can he do that.

 

Just commenting on a report in today's press

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