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The 14th death of 2019

14th Death of 2019  

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That's yer lot. On average we've seen one death every 27 days so far this year. The probability of there being no more deaths is therefore roughly (26 / 27) ^ 9 or 71%, so with no clear warnings that anyone else is at death's door, the odds are this is it for the year.

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I think that's your lot too, but, just to be on the safe side, I've voted for Nobby. 

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We're either going to get something akin to Christmas 2016 over the next few days or this morning's hit will be it for 2019 and the decade.

 

Am going for Jimmy Carter just in case but i wouldn't be at all surprised if that was it for 2019! 

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Gone for Tutu 

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I have gone for Little Richard.  He strikes me as potentially a typical festive season departure.

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2 hours ago, paddyfool said:

That's yer lot. On average we've seen one death every 27 days so far this year. The probability of there being no more deaths is therefore roughly (26 / 27) ^ 9 or 71%, so with no clear warnings that anyone else is at death's door, the odds are this is it for the year.

Then again there does seem to be a propensity for deaths around the christmas period. I'll stick with Bob Dole. He can't last forever in his condition !  

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3 hours ago, CoffinLodger said:

Then again there does seem to be a propensity for deaths around the christmas period. I'll stick with Bob Dole. He can't last forever in his condition !  

 

How high would you factor that propensity?

If it's twice as likely that we'd see a death during one of the last 9 days of the year as on one of the other 356, the probability of no more deaths becomes 50% (calculated as (25 / 27 )^9 ). Which still beats any individual possibility out of the 37 names that cumulatively make up the other 50% of possible outcomes... 

 

(Apologies for over-analysing this :-) )

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I think that's our lot for 2019, unless we get a late rush in the next week - which I can't see.

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Very 'Christmas Present' Lynn

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Won't be any more, but i'm keeping the 'vote for ol' Kirky boy till he carks it' streak going for the principle of things.

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Don't think we'll see another death from the list in 2019. Think it will be early 2020 when Prince Philip goes.

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