paddyfool 379 Posted January 28, 2020 Quick and dirty poll, closing at the end of the month: how lethal do you think the coronavirus outbreak is likely to be? Answers on a click, discuss below. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
msc 18,479 Posted January 28, 2020 SARS got 700 so I'll go for 950-ish, but it could easily be much lower. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paddyfool 379 Posted January 28, 2020 Honestly, I personally think there are arguments for many different points on this scale, from the lowest to the highest. But I'm interested in what other people think. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcreptile 10,979 Posted January 28, 2020 A couple 10000s, like the annual flu attacks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Great Cornholio 902 Posted January 28, 2020 1000-9999 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chilean way 1,900 Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Big Chungus said: 1000-9999 I think so, too 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ladyfiona 2,593 Posted January 28, 2020 Given how big China is and i'm sure the Government is or will lie about the figures because they love to spread false information to it's people, then I reckon it will be over 10k. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the_engineer 1,415 Posted January 29, 2020 100,000 to 999,999 It's being vastly underreported. 200 a day dying in Wuhan funeral parlours full to bursting. https://mobile.twitter.com/StrategicNews2/status/1222255801043210241 They also reckon there's two strains one that's symptomless rots the lungs then makes you collapse and another that gives you flu like symptoms. https://mobile.twitter.com/dongline/status/1222118357664559104 https://mobile.twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1222132059533127680 https://mobile.twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1222260295504142337 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paddyfool 379 Posted January 29, 2020 The official death toll just jumped by a quarter overnight, from 106 to 132. Confirmed case totals rose by the same proportion https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html I'm not surprised that there are rumours of a cover-up or of significantly higher true mortality, but I'd be sceptical of these for now. Many big questions remain unanswered: - Will sustained global transmission occur in spite of current control measures? It seems pretty likely at the moment imho, even though the antecedents, SARS and MERS, were contained. - Will any existing antiviral treatments prove effective? - Will someone succeed in finding a vaccine? - How will the virus evolve? - How much will the transmission and mortality figured change by location, and differing demographics / health systems / resources etc? - How will health systems cope with the strain imposed by quarantine etc, and how will this affect care for people with other conditions? One thing that I'm a little surprised about is that no public health bodies have used this to push the anti-smoking message yet. Surely now, if ever, is the time to look after respiratory health, especially given the link between smoking status and both susceptibility to and severity of respiratory tract infections. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GMsohum 5 Posted January 29, 2020 The last option of over 10,000,000 is ridiculous and impossible. Humanity doesn't wait for or allow so many casualities ever. My prediction is 1000-9999 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
machotrouts 828 Posted January 29, 2020 I need to hear more from the Twitter account called "StrategicNews2" whose pinned tweet says "I am back. My account has been suspended for no reason" before I make up my mind on this one 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paddyfool 379 Posted January 29, 2020 36 minutes ago, GMsohum said: The last option of over 10,000,000 is ridiculous and impossible. Humanity doesn't wait for or allow so many casualities ever. My prediction is 1000-9999 I'd say "highly unlikely", rather than impossible. Two epidemics in the 20th century did top that figure, after all - Spanish flu and HIV. And today, although medicine is far more advanced, the population is also much larger, much older, more densely packed, and prone to rapidly travelling around the world than it was in the time of Spanish flu. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GMsohum 5 Posted January 29, 2020 12 minutes ago, paddyfool said: I'd say "highly unlikely", rather than impossible. Two epidemics in the 20th century did top that figure, after all - Spanish flu and HIV. And today, although medicine is far more advanced, the population is also much larger, much older, more densely packed, and prone to rapidly travelling around the world than it was in the time of Spanish flu. Coronavirus is not so deadly. It will be overcome in less than a month's time. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paddyfool 379 Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, GMsohum said: Coronavirus is not so deadly. Probably not as deadly as Spanish flu, no. But we don't really know how deadly it'll be yet - currently we're seeing >1% case fatality, however, with many more requiring intensive care for ARDS. And it would only have to polish off 0.15% of the world's population to get over the 10 million mark, so the real question might be how widespread it becomes. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the_engineer 1,415 Posted January 29, 2020 4 hours ago, paddyfool said: Probably not as deadly as Spanish flu, no. But we don't really know how deadly it'll be yet - currently we're seeing >1% case fatality, however, with many more requiring intensive care for ARDS. And it would only have to polish off 0.15% of the world's population to get over the 10 million mark, so the real question might be how widespread it becomes. I think the one to look at is serious /critical condition over 1000 . It's been increasing hugely. On top of that many will die simply because there isn't enough medical staff/medicine. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the_engineer 1,415 Posted January 29, 2020 5 hours ago, machotrouts said: I need to hear more from the Twitter account called "StrategicNews2" whose pinned tweet says "I am back. My account has been suspended for no reason" before I make up my mind on this one The link is for epoch times reposted by that Twitter account. Epoch times are usually right and get their stuff correct. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the_engineer 1,415 Posted January 29, 2020 In china crows are a bad omen , they smell death and eat dead bodies. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,608 Posted January 29, 2020 100 million or more. I think the UK will see 400k to 2 million deaths Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Toast 16,152 Posted January 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, The Old Crem said: 100 million or more. I think the UK will see 400k to 2 million deaths Looking on the bright side, maybe I won't need to buy a new laptop after all. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,229 Posted January 29, 2020 Oh look, people are super worried about the Coronavirus. In other news, the sky is blue... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Paul Bearer 6,102 Posted January 29, 2020 Being as optimistic as ever, I've gone for over 10m. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Charlotte's Controller 195 Posted January 29, 2020 Interestingly this years Royal Institution Christmas lectures were maths based and the first lecture had a few examples of infectious diseases and their spread. It was interesting to watch. BBC4 Iplayer Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,219 Posted January 29, 2020 At least it has knocked the fucking climate change bollocks off of the news. Note to hatchet face Thunberg: ' Don't worry about the climate changing luv, we are all going to get wiped out by disease first'. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcreptile 10,979 Posted January 29, 2020 It has infected more people than SARS now, but the deathrate is only 2% as compared to the 10% of SARS. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,608 Posted January 29, 2020 20 minutes ago, gcreptile said: It has infected more people than SARS now, but the deathrate is only 2% as compared to the 10% of SARS. It's 11%. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
