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Coronavirus death toll 2020

Coronavirus death toll 2020  

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On 09/07/2020 at 08:56, Grim Up North said:

 

Your maths are shit Sir Creep - 48 out of 3000 is 1.6%

 

Your death rate as a proportion of the population is running at 198.3 per million.

 

Germany (one of many examples I could have used) with a population of nearly 84 million has a death rate of 109 per million (so will have many massive cities with lower death stats than Lafayette parish).

 

Keep taking the Tabasco...….

 

A further note on the statistical comparisons: the Louisiana death rate as a percentage of total confirmed COVID cases is running at about 1%, same as the US national average.

 

I'd be leary of too many comparisons between places on this statistic, because a lot depends on how many people are getting tested, case definitions, age of cases etc. But there's nothing especially successful shown by those stats from Lafayette Parish, certainly

 

EDIT: wait, no, the average case mortality in both USA and Louisiana is about 4%. Ignore me.

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So many folk in the shop today think that a 'face covering' means their mouth only and even a couple that remove their mask to talk to their partner, it's so sad, there should be a law that allows other shop users to smack them on the back of the head if they don't cover up properly.

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Even though the testing has been hiked in the UK there is still something odd about our figures in comparison to other countries.

 

Last week UK reported 4,773 new cases and 577 new deaths - 12.1% death rate - now there is a time lag but previous 2 weeks the stats are

 

3930 new cases - 661 new deaths - 16.8% death rate

5838 new cases - 803 new deaths - 13.8% death rate.

 

New cases being diagnosed not really dropping but at least deaths are still showing a weekly reduction.

 

But now compare those death rates to the USA last week (and there are other examples I could have used).

 

445,852 new cases - 5207 new deaths - 1.2% death rate. 

 

Whereas Death Rate in UK is still way above 10%.

 

Something else weird is happening in US - they are getting loads more cases but their deaths have dropped significantly since the New York outbreak.

 

If this is just a time lag effect and the US death rates are going to head back to the New York and UK rates then the Reaper is going to be a busy lad this coming month.

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1) A lot of people in the UK will have had undiagnosed COVID.  0.5% of the UK population have been tested for COVID vs 8.7% of the US population. Spain and Italy have had similarly low testing rates to the UK and similarly high case mortality rates.  

2) I'm not sure if the US had the same frequency of outbreaks in care homes, where death rates were inevitably very high.

3) The USA is a lot more happy to ventilate patients unlikely to ever make it off the ventilator than the UK. This tends to only postpone mortality a little, however, and also engender more morbidity. (People with any degree of disability always come off the ventilator a lot less physically able than they came on)

4) The overall US case mortality so far is 4% (139,000 deaths out of 3,546,000 cases). I'm not sure that week is entirely representative.

 

What will really be informative will be how much life expectancy dipped in 2020 in different countries. Which we'll find out around 2022 or so.

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8 minutes ago, paddyfool said:

0.5% of the UK population have been tested for COVID vs 8.7% of the US population.

 

Where do you get that stat from?

 

Per Worldometer Tests per Million of population in UK are higher than US - granted that could be same people over and over again but that could also be true in US.

 

Obviously your stat is coming from somewhere else and just wondered where?

 

PS I'm not disputing that a huge number of people in UK have had Covid and are not part of official case numbers.

 

PPS The world death numbers v cases is also interesting - peaked at 8,484 on April 17 so although cases appear to be increasing at an alarming rate deaths are fairly flat at 4500 to 5500. Think that might change in next week or so.

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2 hours ago, Grim Up North said:

 

Where do you get that stat from?

 

Per Worldometer Tests per Million of population in UK are higher than US - granted that could be same people over and over again but that could also be true in US.

 

Obviously your stat is coming from somewhere else and just wondered where?

 

PS I'm not disputing that a huge number of people in UK have had Covid and are not part of official case numbers.

 

PPS The world death numbers v cases is also interesting - peaked at 8,484 on April 17 so although cases appear to be increasing at an alarming rate deaths are fairly flat at 4500 to 5500. Think that might change in next week or so.

Told you all this will turn out better and not before time

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Personally, I believe that some countries have their fingers on the scale. And poor countries probably have a lot of COVID-19 deaths under the radar. I could very well imagine a "final" death toll - in the way that things can ever be final - of above 10 million people. But we will only know it when we have good statistical data on anuual excess deaths, which might take 2-3 years.

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So it would appear that we have been counting the Covid 19 deaths incorrectly, if you have tested positively in the past then died subsequently from another illness this has been counted as a Covid death. There are some abysmally poor statisticians and administrators not to have questioned this before. When you compare the numbers of deaths for France and Spain currently being seen, often single digits, with ours 100 plus you have to question the quality of the data if we are doing so well.

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On 18/07/2020 at 10:41, Charlotte's Controller said:

So it would appear that we have been counting the Covid 19 deaths incorrectly, if you have tested positively in the past then died subsequently from another illness this has been counted as a Covid death. There are some abysmally poor statisticians and administrators not to have questioned this before. When you compare the numbers of deaths for France and Spain currently being seen, often single digits, with ours 100 plus you have to question the quality of the data if we are doing so well.

 

Why do you keep saying we're doing so well? We're not doing well by any measure at all, and haven't done well at any point during the outbreak.

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9 hours ago, The Quim Reaper said:

 

Why do you keep saying we're doing so well? We're not doing well by any measure at all, and haven't done well at any point during the outbreak.

 

We as the country, the commentators as the government. Today's number 12, is more in line with the European numbers and expectations given the much reduced level of infections. Well compared to the Americas where there is no responsible leadersh.ip 

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47 minutes ago, Charlotte's Controller said:

 

We as the country, the commentators as the government. Today's number 12, is more in line with the European numbers and expectations given the much reduced level of infections. Well compared to the Americas where there is no responsible leadersh.ip 


Are you under the illusion that we have responsible leadership here? I’m not sure you’ve been following. 

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1 hour ago, Charlotte's Controller said:

 

We as the country, the commentators as the government. Today's number 12, is more in line with the European numbers and expectations given the much reduced level of infections. Well compared to the Americas where there is no responsible leadersh.ip 

Number of deaths don't matter a shit, it is the new infections rate they need to get down, if they get that down to 12/day then I will sing their praises, it will be a long time before that happens with the next winter coming along.

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56 minutes ago, torbrexbones said:

Number of deaths don't matter a shit, it is the new infections rate they need to get down, if they get that down to 12/day then I will sing their praises, it will be a long time before that happens with the next winter coming along.

 

It is one of the few degrees of measure that we have, I am in complete agreement that it is the infection rate that needs to be reduced and it is down to the general public to act responsibly in order to achieve this.

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11 hours ago, Charlotte's Controller said:

 

It is one of the few degrees of measure that we have, I am in complete agreement that it is the infection rate that needs to be reduced and it is down to the general public to act responsibly in order to achieve this.

The best way to achieve a reduction in transfer rate is to find out who is doing the transferring and that means mass testing of everyone, not just those that display symptoms.

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Never mind quarantining people coming back from Spain, STOP all flights from Spain right now.

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I realise that I am talking to myself here but I really hope the stupid bastards that went to the beach today all catch this fucking virus and die.

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Ooh marvellous, a new government Covid advice poster!

 

C98CDF6C-1F2D-4B48-B24F-615A918412E0.thumb.jpeg.007982824542f949355f28c49af653b7.jpeg
 

Remember guys: Wash cover make, hands face space.

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On 01/08/2020 at 17:02, The Quim Reaper said:

Ooh marvellous, a new government Covid advice poster!

 

C98CDF6C-1F2D-4B48-B24F-615A918412E0.thumb.jpeg.007982824542f949355f28c49af653b7.jpeg
 

Remember guys: Wash cover make, hands face space.


We can address the wording later — Can we begin the discussion condemning the colour scheme?  

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2 minutes ago, Sir Creep said:


We can address the wording later — Can we begin the discussion condemning the colour scheme?  


We can address the colour scheme later - Can we begin the discussion condemning the terrible cunts that green light this nonsensical shite?

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18 minutes ago, Sir Creep said:


We can address the wording later — Can we begin the discussion condemning the colour scheme?  

No, lets not - I have discovered that this  (^) is the colour scheme of Pansexual Pride.

See the source image

Following the use of the rainbow, I'm inclined to think there's someone with a subversive sense of humour working in the government graphic design department.

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Ugh.

 

So, I live on a street, in a house, and right across from me is an area with flats. They're having a coronavirus outbreak and they're now setting a test center up right in front of my house. Like, literally a few meters from my front door. Not only do I venture through the area with the outbreak, when I go and get groceries, but I also have been in contact with people who lives there. 

 

On tuesday, whilst watching footy, I ate some oatmeal and had something stuck in my throat which made me cough like crazy. I developed a sore throat but I still cough. I don't know if its placebo, but now I'm starting to feel chestpain and the cough is pretty annyoing. 

 

The good thing, I can almost get a test from my kitchen window, but other than that. I guess coronavirus is next door, literally.

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On 06/08/2020 at 17:10, Genfærd said:

Ugh.

 

So, I live on a street, in a house, and right across from me is an area with flats. They're having a coronavirus outbreak and they're now setting a test center up right in front of my house. Like, literally a few meters from my front door. Not only do I venture through the area with the outbreak, when I go and get groceries, but I also have been in contact with people who lives there. 

 

On tuesday, whilst watching footy, I ate some oatmeal and had something stuck in my throat which made me cough like crazy. I developed a sore throat but I still cough. I don't know if its placebo, but now I'm starting to feel chestpain and the cough is pretty annyoing. 

 

The good thing, I can almost get a test from my kitchen window, but other than that. I guess coronavirus is next door, literally.

 

Okay, just got tested. Fuck me, that sucked. My throat was not ready for it.

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