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Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?  

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11 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said:

It’s also worth pointing out that, while Trump and his supporters have jumped on Biden for saying George, if we want to get all petty because someone was misnamed, Trump called Matt Gaetz “Rick Gates” multiple times on the same day. Chris Wallace became “Mike”, as did John Bolton, as did Luke Messer, as did Nick Goepper. Kevin McCarthy became “Steve”, Paul Ryan became “Rick”, Chuck Canterbury became “Ken”, Tim Cook became “Tim Apple“ and Marillyn Hewson became “Marillyn Lockheed”.

 

Yeah but they're all nobodies - having your wife prompting you about what Trump is called is suggestive of a real issue and not only that but that she KNOWS there is an issue.

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5 minutes ago, Grim Up North said:

 

Yeah but they're all nobodies - having your wife prompting you about what Trump is called is suggestive of a real issue and not only that but that she KNOWS there is an issue.


Hmm, no they’re not.

 

And also, for more context, Biden was responding to a question from a George Lopez, hence the George. I’d say it’s not noteworthy. I do that kind of thing and I’m a third of the man’s age.

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1 hour ago, Kenny McCormick said:

Trump Still has a good chance of winning. He did well in the last debate, Biden completely lost control. I certainly wouldn't go as far as to say that Trump is definitely going to win but that wouldn't be an outrageous thought.

At best you can call the debate a draw. 
Trump was definitely better at this debate than last time but so was Biden. Especially on Covid, where Biden gave his strongest response, and Trump did not do a good job at all. Plus, Biden also didn’t back down on the minimum wage increase, which surprised me. Also, him saying he would end oil subsidies is not the gotcha you think it is. 
Yeah, it’s true Biden kind of tapered off in the end, but by that point I don’t think people would care that much. Trump failed on the COVID part of the debate, and that’s the most important issue for Americans. Not counting out Trump entirely, but you’re mistaken if you think he’s the favorite. He’s definitely an underdog. 

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Trumps a fucking orange pus cunt !!

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1 hour ago, Wee Jum said:

Trumps a fucking orange pus cunt !!

He is really a closet Dundee United fan ;)

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14 minutes ago, torbrexbones said:

He is really a closet Dundee United fan ;)

You can fuck right off with that :D:D:D:D:D

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I've done the sums, 50% of this board is Scots (tempted to say Scotch just to piss them off). The other 50% is gay. Yes there's some cross pollination Venn diagram wise (I'm looking at you Wills) but anyway. The non-gay, non Scots amongst us are confused about these local derbies and their significance.

My sheep has longer hair than yours, so there.

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14 hours ago, Grim Up North said:

 

Yeah but they're all nobodies - having your wife prompting you about what Trump is called is suggestive of a real issue and not only that but that she KNOWS there is an issue.

 

14 hours ago, The Quim Reaper said:


Hmm, no they’re not.

 

And also, for more context, Biden was responding to a question from a George Lopez, hence the George. I’d say it’s not noteworthy. I do that kind of thing and I’m a third of the man’s age.

 

1) I agree they are not nobodies but they are a field of people where you could easily forget one or use wrong name - as you say we all do it from time to time (and I'm two thirds of Biden's age so twice your age :D). That is different to forgetting Trump's name - I've forgotten a colleagues name in a meeting but never my bosses. 

2) The George Lopez thing - okay I think you are looking for excuses for him. His wife is prompting him really quickly with 'Trump' - there's an issue.

3) I'd still rather Biden was POTUS than Trump but in my opinion Biden has early signs of dementia and we'll either have 4 years of a Reagan type POTUS or Kamala Harris will take over at some point. Any of those options will be better for the US and the world then another 4 years of Trump.

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28 minutes ago, Grim Up North said:

 

 

1) I agree they are not nobodies but they are a field of people where you could easily forget one or use wrong name - as you say we all do it from time to time (and I'm two thirds of Biden's age so twice your age :D). That is different to forgetting Trump's name - I've forgotten a colleagues name in a meeting but never my bosses. 

2) The George Lopez thing - okay I think you are looking for excuses for him. His wife is prompting him really quickly with 'Trump' - there's an issue.

3) I'd still rather Biden was POTUS than Trump but in my opinion Biden has early signs of dementia and we'll either have 4 years of a Reagan type POTUS or Kamala Harris will take over at some point. Any of those options will be better for the US and the world then another 4 years of Trump.


I’m not looking for excuses for him at all (I’m not a Biden fan), I’m merely pointing out that him stumbling over a name, such as it was, isn’t noteworthy. I don’t subscribe to the dementia theory; it’d become immediately apparent in the debates.

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I think Biden does have cognitive decline, but when they drug him up before the debates he seems a lot more coherent. Which I have no problem with at all. 

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I sent my absentee ballot in tonight.

 

 

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On 25/10/2020 at 18:03, Joey Russ said:

Well, for those of you predicting that the polls will indeed tighten, here you go: 

 

Is this the same Nate silver who said at 5pm on election night that Hillary has a 96% chance of winning? That Nate? Texas won’t even be close 

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If Biden wins will he run the free world from his basement or will he hole up in the Lincoln Bedroom for 48 months

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Trump will win.Biden will win the Popular vote.

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15 hours ago, Nurse Rached said:

Is this the same Nate silver who said at 5pm on election night that Hillary has a 96% chance of winning? That Nate? Texas won’t even be close 

I think that must be a different Nate Silver.

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You’re clearly cherry picking data. On Nate Silver’s final forecast in 2016, Trump basically had a 3 in 10 chance of winning. 
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Yeah, some of his states were off in that final forecast, but he actually gave Trump a meaningful chance of winning the electoral college. I know people tend to think that because he was incorrect on who would ultimately win that we should discard him entirely, but that simply isn’t true. People tend to think of it as right or wrong rather than a probability something happens. And yes, Nate Silver does have Trump at a lower chance than he did in 2016, but the reality is that the chances aren’t 0. Trump absolutely is the underdog, but a little over 10% chance is still something that absolutely can happen. 

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5 hours ago, Nurse Rached said:

Still wrong, that 85% was before the Comey thing. On Nov 3rd it was down to 66,9%. It's in the article you cite! I remember very clearly that Nate emphasized Trump's chances more than others. Many people were very angry at him.

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As we approach Tuesday, I’ve concluded based on what I see and hear here there and everywhere that Trump will not only win, but by a couple more states than last time.  More electoral votes.  That’s my answer to the question this thread poses.  
SC

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Trump has cancelled an election night party that was supposed to be held at his hotel in DC.  There’s a lot of speculation as to why he did this, but some think it’s because he knows he’s going to lose. 

 

https://www.tmz.com/2020/10/30/president-trump-cancels-election-night-party-plans-dc-hotel/?fbclid=IwAR16xJe7kVYl_PtD-kziNB4SM2aWVTm_T_epJ1JiekIp22B696KvHzXtwuM

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