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Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?  

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I think one bright side of this election is the ballot initiatives. All of Arizona, Montana, New Jersey, and even South Dakota (which had some of the strictest marijuana laws in the state) legalized recreational marijuana whereas Mississippi legalized medical marijuana. Plus Florida voted on a $15 minimum wage. Also Oregon just became the first state to decriminalize all drugs too.

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8 minutes ago, the_engineer said:

 

Things really aren't adding up literally.

 

 


Just looked this up, and the total on 1st November was actually just over 3.68m.

 

That would mean an 87.9% turnout. Which is remarkably high.

 

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Whoever wins is going to invade Cuba next year to either secure or regain those Cuban and other anti communist Hispanic votes

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Seems like Biden has officially won Wisconsin: 

 

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40 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said:

That would mean an 87.9% turnout. Which is remarkably high.

 

Interesting - the turnout across the USA was the highest in 120 years at 67% - 88% is sounding very 'fraudy'. By which side? Who knows.

 

Although presumably turnout always higher in swing states.

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55 minutes ago, the_engineer said:

 

Things really aren't adding up literally.

 

 

 

Where is the number of registered voters even from aside from just being lower than the number of votes cast to serve its purpose?

 

Without digging too deep, that's not credible. According to Wikipedia, Trump got 1.4 million votes in Wisconsin in 2016 to Clinton's 1.3 million. That was on a turnout of 67.34%. If you make turnout 100%, then that's 4.1 million voters in Wisconsin 4 years ago. Biden and Trump are currently both on 1.6 million votes apiece, which works out, on 2016 population figures, at around 78% turnout, high but not exceptionally so (it would be lower if the voting population has increased in the past 4 years). That's a rough calculation, which doesn't include the votes for third party candidates, which were higher in 2016 than 2020 anyway, so would increase the population figures, regardless of any change in the past 4 years. 

 

EDIT: Having seen other responses, another way to look at this is, if those figures are correct and it's coming in at 88% turnout, has there been an exodus from Wisconsin over the past 4 years? Because there are a lot fewer voters this time around is the 2016 turnout is correct.

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Further to the turnout questions, this is 538's take on the rumours:

image.png.a1f87bbe3662babd7adb25c0ed242626.png

 

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So, I don't think this will happen, but just to prove that it's still a semi-realistic possibility, we could still end up at 269-269, even if Biden wins NE-2.

 

If Dems win Wisconsin, Michigan and flip Georgia, that puts Biden on 269.

If the Republicans can hold on to Arizona, flip Nevada and win NC and Pennsylvania, a win in Maine-2 would put Trump on 269 too.

 

None of those are outlandish, but if Biden wins Georgia, I'd expect him to pick up Arizona first. 

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2 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

Seems like Biden has officially won Wisconsin: 

 

AP projects Biden will win Wisconsin: 

 

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The Donald is really losing it on twitter, dog whistles and fully laying the groundwork for conspiracies to goad his maga lot...

 

4 years in and we're a bit numb to it but this is really crazy! 

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Drumpf has also filed a lawsuit to stop vote counting in Michigan. Christ on a fucking bike.

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32 minutes ago, torbrexbones said:

Which state might be next to declare?

Probably Michigan. They’re 99% through counting ballots

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39 minutes ago, ajlposh said:

Probably Michigan. They’re 99% through counting ballots

Yep: 

 

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EmAaJfoW0AUd46-.jpg

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C304DE0F-6A77-40C0-8F1F-19B114D6F12C.jpeg

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Rudy Guiliani made a speech earlier saying that they will be taking this to court, concerning the mystery 130,000 ballots in Wisconsin (which kinda left me dumbfounded how there was not a single vote for Trump there). Not to say that Trump is right but that definitely seems pretty dodge to me...

 

It could be that the election isnt decided for another week at this rate...

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14 minutes ago, Kenny McCormick said:

Rudy Guiliani made a speech earlier saying that they will be taking this to court, concerning the mystery 130,000 ballots in Wisconsin (which kinda left me dumbfounded how there was not a single vote for Trump there). Not to say that Trump is right but that definitely seems pretty dodge to me...

 

It could be that the election isnt decided for another week at this rate...

 

The mystery 130,000 weren't a mystery at all. They were a software error which self-corrected to reflect the live result. This is the problem with trying to conduct a national election across 51 different jurisdictions each containing millions of people, within 24 hours of the polls closing, errors happen. The Republicans can try whatever legal tricks they like, they won't come up with enough. Biden will be the next President, whatever the MAGA hat wearing conspiracy theorists want to complain about.

 

I wouldn't worry though: with a Republican Senate, Biden's hands will be tied for 4 years, just in time for Pence or Donny Jr. or Ivanka to run in 2024. He'll be unable to get anything meaningful done.

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Guess it's almost time for Trump to stamp his feet and spit out his dummy. 

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58 minutes ago, Paul Bearer said:

Guess it's almost time for Trump to stamp his feet and spit out his dummy. 

 

He does that every day of his life.  He's like a baby

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